jos ée morneau gilles verner meteorological service of canada dorval, québec, canada
DESCRIPTION
Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report. Jos ée Morneau Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada. Outline. Current Operational Status: (Gilles Verner) MSC Organization and Satellite Reception Facilities Telecoms and Computers - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Josée MorneauGilles Verner
Meteorological Service of CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada.
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Outline
• Current Operational Status: (Gilles Verner)
– MSC Organization and Satellite Reception Facilities– Telecoms and Computers– Operational NWP System at CMC and Data Usage– MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR– Recent changes to NWP System and impact
• Recent and Future Developments: (Josée Morneau)
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Environment Canada – 2004
Minister David Anderson
Deputy Minister Suzanne Hurtubise
REGIONS
Ontario Atlantic Prairie & Northern Quebec Pacific & Yukon
A S S I S T A N T D E P U T Y M I N I S T E R S
Environmental Conservation Service
Karen Brown
Environmental Protection ServiceBarry Stemshorn
Meteorological Service of CanadaMarc Denis Everell
Canadian EnvironmentalAssessment Agency
Corp. Services Hélène
Beauchemin
Policy & Commumications.
Norine Smith
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
1. Air quality is improved[Gordon Owen]
3. Canadians and their environment are protected
from the effects of pollution and waste
4. The impacts of climate change on Canada are
reduced
2. Weather and environmental
predictions and services reduce risks and
contribute to the well-being of Canadians
1. Canada’s natural capital is restored,
conserved, and enhanced
3. Risks to Canadians and impacts on air, water, and land from pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are managed (Anne O’Toole l]
2. Risks to Canadians and their environment posed by pollutants or other harmful or dangerous substances are assessed[John Arseneau]
1. Canadians are informed of environmental pollution and are engaged in measures to address it[John Arseneau]
1. Wildlife is conserved and protected[Trevor Swerdfager]
2. Land and landscapes are managed sustainably. [Bob McLean ]
2. Science supports weather and environmental predictions and services, Departmental decision-making and policy development[Michel Béland ]
1. Environmental forecasts and warnings are produced to enable the public to take action to protect their safety, security and well being[Angèle Simard ]
Environment Canada 2006 – Results based Management
A. Biodiversity is conserved
and protected.
B. Water is clean, safe and secure
A. Improved knowledge and information on
weather and environmental
conditions influences decision-making
B. Canadians are informed of, and
respond appropriately to, current and
predicted environmental
conditions
B. Canadians adopt sustainable
consumption and production approaches
A. Risks posed by pollutants or other
harmful or dangerous substances in the environment are
reduced
A. Net emissions of greenhouse gases are
reduced.
B. Canadians understand the
impacts of climate change and adapt to its
effects
Attain the highest level of environmental quality as a means to enhance the well-being of Canadians, preserve our natural environment, and advance our long-term competitiveness
2. Canadians are better informed through improved weather and environmental services and leveraged partnership opportunities[David Grimes–l]
1. Environmental monitoring allows EC to identify, analyse and predict weather, air, water and climate conditions[Tom Nichols]
2. Sector-based, and other approaches promote sustainable consumption and production (Cynthia Wright ]
1. Integrated information and knowledge enables integrated approaches to protecting and conserving priority ecosystems[Jim Abraham & Albin Tremblay ]
2. Information, assessment and understanding of the state of ecosystem sustainability supports decision-making[Michelle Brenning]
3. Canadians benefit from the creation and use fo meteorological, and environmental information by EC and F/P/T partners, in support of programs of common interest[Ken Macdonald]
1. The climate change plan, Moving Forward on Climate Change, is implemented[Michael Beale
2. The long-term global climate change regime is consistent with Canadian interests[Sharon Lee Smith]
Departmental Strategic Outcomes
CESF Outcome:
Outcome Project Groupings
Intermediate Outcomes
C. Canadians adopt approaches that
ensure the sustainable use and
management of natural capital and
working landscapes
1. Aquatic ecosystems are conserved and protection[John Carey]
4. Environmental information and services empower Canadians to take action on environmental priorities[Suzan Bowserl]
1. Adaptive strategies to address the impacts of climate change are developed and implemented for the benefit of Canadians and the environment (Michel Béland]
CESF - Competitiveness and Environmental
Sustainability Framework
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
HRPT Receive Sites
CMC
Edmonton
Halifax
Gilmore Creek, Alaska
Tromso
Wallops, Virginia
Direct Receive
DOMSAT
EARS
ReadinessFor METOPNext Summer
Any METOP downloadsat Gilmore Creekand Wallops?
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
GOES Receive Sites
CMC (3)
Montréal
Edmonton
Halifax
Direct Receive
New - Gander?
ReadinessFor GOES-NNext Summer
Vamcouver
Winnipeg
Toronto
Ottawa
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
CMC Computer Centre Configuration
2004/03
6x ea
Supercomputing Cluster
SGIO3000's40 PEs
(MIPS R12K)
O2000 4 xR10K PEs
1.2 TB14x SCSIfrom OSS
Climate Archive
HPModel 30 &
60 RAID0.2 TB?
3x
1000 Mb/s switched128ports. Each host has links to
ops & dev net
SGIO300:8 PEs
Central File Server145 TB
4 DST drives20 MB/s ea.
LSI (1 TB 4X FC)
10x FCdual
attach
LSI11TB
Front Ends
FC Hubs 32 ports
Data Acquisition& Distribution
opsnet switched(1000+100+10)
CriticalWorkstations
devnet switched(1000+100+10)
Dev HPpairs
NationalProduct
DistributionServerMC/SG
2 x HP K370
SmallerHP pairs
PC's & WksNT/OTServers
2 x o200Monitoring
Servers
routers
8 x Front-End3 x Back-End
2 Data4 Climate
2 x Greenlane
DMZ nets (10)
router
AWWS2xHP
L-series
InternetServers
100 UNIX &150 MSdesktops
3x o200WrkGrpServers
Satnet Tx
PC's, Wks.&
Tandem
F820.05 TB
NASO3000 18 xR14K PEs
ASEPLinuxCluster
17 DL380
IBM SP -928 PE &2.19TB
LSI (8.67 TB FC)
8x
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Telecommunications
• GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T1 during 2003
• Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GOES - GTS back-up)
• Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS
• Internet still used for access to Nesdis data
• Funding for dedicated link (T1+) with Nesdis approved, should be implemented soon as operational link, after the Nesdis relocation
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
CMC Operational Models
Global Model Regional Model• Uniform grid• Resolution of .9º (~100 km)• 28 eta levels, lid at 10 hPa• Kuo convection scheme• Sundqvist stratiform scheme• Force-restore surface module with climatogical soil moisture• 10 day forecasts at 00Z and 6 day forecasts at 12Z.• Cut-off of T+3h10
• Variable resolution grid• Resolution of .1375º (~15 km) • 58 eta levels• Kain-Fritsch scheme• Sundqvist stratiform scheme• ISBA surface module with soil moisture pseudo-analysis (error feedback, no data)• 48-hour forecasts (00Z -12Z)• Cut-off of T+1h35
• 4D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T108), but 3D-Var for regional• Background errors stats from 24-48 method• Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR• Single GEM model (global, regional, meso)
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
CMC Operational Models (cont.)
Mesoscale model Global EPS
• GEM-LAM at 2.5 km, L58• Non-hydrostatic• No convection parameterization• Explicit condensation (Kong-Yau)• ISBA surface module• No assimilation cycle (started from 12hr GEM-15 + BC)• 24 hour forecasts at 12Z• 2 windows (SRN BC, Windsor- Québec corridor), more later
• EnKF assimilation cycle with 96 members, GEM at 1.2º• Resolution of ~150 km (1.2º for GEM and T149 for SEF)• Forecasts with 16 members• Multi model approach with different physics options• 16 day forecasts at 00Z and 12Z• Cooperation with NCEP for NAEFS
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
575 X 641 grid (66% in 15-km uniformarea), 58 levels
Regionalmodel
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Currently two GEM 2.5 domains
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC
OBS OBST + 6h
OBST + 9h
OBST + 9h
OBST + 9h
OBST + 3h
OBST + 3h
OBST + 3h
00 UTC
240hglobal
fst
6-hglobal
first guess
6-hglobal
first guess
6-hglobal
first guess
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
6-hglobal
first guess
6-hglobal
first guess
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
T + 6h
OBST + 5h30
6-hregionalfirst guess
3D-VarAnalysis
6-hregionalfirst guess
T + 1h40OBS
3D-VarAnalysis
48hregional
fst
T + 1h40OBSOBS
T + 5h30
3D-VarAnalysis
6-hregionalfirst guess
6-hregionalfirst guess
3D-VarAnalysis
144hglobal
fst
Data assimilation cycles at CMC
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
(750 m) Verticalhourly
U,VProfiler
(NOAA Network)
~180 km boxes11 layers, per time step
U,VMODIS polar winds
(Aqua, Terra)
1.5o x 1.5o
11 layers, per time step
U,V
(IR, WV, VI channels)
AMV(Meteosat 5-8, GOES 10-12, MTSAT-1R)
2o x 2o
3-hourlyIM3
(6.7 )
Water vapor channel
GOES 10-12
250 km x 250 km
per time step
Ocean Land
AMSU-A 3-10 6-10
AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4
ATOVS
NOAA 15-16-17-18, AQUA
1o x 1o x 50 hPaper time step
U, V, TAircraft
(BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS)
1 report / 6hT, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water)Surface report
28 levelsU, V, T, (T-Td), psradiosonde/dropsonde
ThinningVariablesType
Observations assimilated at the CMC
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Average amount of data assimilated per day
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000 3D-Var
4D-Var
+0%
+0%
+199% +107%
+47%
+76% +494%
• Overall ~ 800 000 data assimilated per day with 4D-Var• 60% increase over 3D-Var.
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Availability of aircraft data
• ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO (on GTS since July 05)
Q: Where are the ADS data East of 30° E?
Also AIREPs have almost disappearedthere !!
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Canadian AMDAR coverage
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Canadian AMDAR - Status
• AC Jazz: 33 CRJ and 39 DHC-8 on GTS, 10 DHC-8 retained due to problems with data quality. More CRJ being added. CRJ data very good.
• Still issues with DHC-8 TT data, although improved.• Some data from AMS (DHC-8 and B737) but not
used nor transmitted due to data quality issues.• Some progress with First Air (B737 or B727 with
TAMDAR) but data quality issues related to TAMDAR calibration. Some TAMDAR evaluation with GLFE.
• C-ADAS to be replaced by in-house software.• Monitoring of data is on-going. Results showing
importance of good monitoring before distribution of data.
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8
For DHC-8, significant difference in bias between
ascent / descent data.
Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics.
CRJ data OK.
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE
Some problems with GLFE TAMDAR data earlier in
experiment
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Monitoring of TAMDAR during GLFE
GLFE TAMDAR data much improved after significant work
by AIRDAT. HR data not monitored.
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Other Canadian observations
• Canadian AMDAR : other developments (although slow) with West Jet, AMS, Canadian North, First Air.
• “Synoptic” observations from CTBTO network, using SYNOP MOBIL code, header: SNCN19 CWAO. Observations every 10-min, 10 stations for now but should increase, received at CMC by e-mail.
• Canadian radar data - now available centrally at CMC, NRP (National Radar Processor) operational, full volume scans available.
• Forestry and Road weather stations in British Columbia - data received at CMC, in old SA format. Data redistribution restrictions currently apply…should eventually be available in BUFR.
• Co-operative network in Quebec (Province, Hydro-Quebec, etc), received at CMC, also redistribution restrictions…problems with BUFR data.
• Montreal mesonet, including research wind profiler: under installation but operated by Universities, data not yet available to CMC and redistribution restrictions may apply…should be provided to USA profiler hub
• Some soil TT data available, eventually in BUFR.• Code conversion to BUFR: Nothing done, except for AMDAR.• Ozone soundings on GTS (KULA01 CWAO) and total column ozone.• Major data management project in MSC, should lead to all data available in
BUFR. Target is 2-3 years.
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Ozone/UV Monitoring Networks
Brewer: UVA/B and total column ozone at 9
sites. Data in NRT in local ascii format.
Ozone soundings now done once
weekly at 10 sites. Data on GTS in CREX, 2-3 days
after measurement.
Both are Research networks. Some
discussions for better operations, including
data transmission and formats.
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
CACS/RT: Canada-Wide Real-Time(GPS*C Service) CACS/PGR: Post-Glacial ReboundCACS/ATS: Arctic Tracking StationsCACS/GLP: Great Lakes Partnership (Sfc Met, CSA/MSC)CACS/WCDA: Western Canada Deformation Array
PRDS
DRAO ALBH
CHUR
ALGO
STJO
YELL
SCH2
NRC1
WHIT
WINN FRDN
HLFX
BAIE ELIZ BCOV NTKA NANO PTAL PGC5 UCLU
KNGS
PARY
PWEL
ROSS
HOLM
INVK
ALRT
EURK
SACH TUKT RESO
VALD PICL
KUUJ
BAKE
CHWK
WSLR
WILL
NAIN
KIQI
FLIN
A potential Canadian ground-based GPS network
Not shown: regional (provincial) networks, Canadian Coast Guard sites
Raw GPS data received for ~30 sites from NRCan and IGS via FTP and processed in-house to ZTD (since Summer 2005)
Sfc Met at 19 sites
Hourly network (GAMIT) and Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are made available in NRT (J. Aparicio)
Potential of ~ 127 sites
not processedprocessed by NOAA/FSL
= Radiosonde-GPS collocations (7)
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting
Minor changes :• AMV’s from MTSAT-1R : July 2005 (replacing GOES-P)• Blacklisting of DHC-8 AMDAR : Oct 2005• Blacklisting amsu-a ch 6 from NOAA-15 : Oct 2005• Blacklisting amsu-b ch a from NOAA-15 : Jan 2006
Assimilation of satellite data, December 7, 2005, in Global + Regional systems
• AMSU-A and MHS on NOAA-18• BUFR Winds for Meteosat-8 (replacing Meteosat-7)
Major changes to EPS on December 13, 2005
• Forecast twice a day to day 16• Inclusion of MODIS winds and AMSUA on AQUA• Improvements to EnKF algorithm (model error)• EnKF – 2x48 members replaced by 4x24 (better stats)• In forecast models, use of ISBA for ½ of members
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Recent NWP verification
GEM-15
4D-Var
New Sat data
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
CSA Chinook mission
• The CSA decided in early 2004 to make SWIFT the primary instrument for their second SciSat mission
• The CSA selects GPS instrument as secondary payload with SWIFT and creates the Chinook Mission Chinook Mission March 2005
• SWIFTSWIFT and partner experiment ARGOARGO are just about to start mission phase B/C contract/studies for projected launch in Nov 2010, 3 year mission
• Unclear at this stage if data will be available in real-time, work and funding needed for this.
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
PART 2 : Outline Recent & future developments
• 2006 :– Summer : new version of global model for Medium-range
forecasting system & 4D-Var analysis changes– Fall : Update to Regional model for Short-Range
Forecasting system• 2007 :
– Winter : • METOP amsu-a & mhs, AIRS, SSMI & SSMI/S, COSMIC, 3
hourly sfc obs, QuikSCAT, update to AMV’s.• Revised bgck & obs error statistics.• Off-line biais correction for radiance data.
• 2008+ :– Raise global model lid to 0,1 hPa– More obs …– GEM-LAM with Continental/Local 4D-Var LAM
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Main Features of the New Model VersionMain Features of the New Model Version
• Increased horizontal and vertical resolution
• 800x600x58L (33 km) compared to 400x200x28L (100 km)
• Numerical poles at geographic locations (non-rotated)
• Representation of clouds and precipitation• Shallow convection with Kuo Transient• Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch (vs Kuo)• Modified Sundqvist scheme for grid-scale condensation
• Bougeault-Lacarrère for the turbulent mixing length (vs Blackadar)
• Constant thermodynamic roughness length over water in the Tropics (vs Charnock everywhere)
• ISBA land surface scheme with sequential assimilation of soil moisture (based on OI) (vs Force-Restore)
(Stéphane Bélair, MRD)
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Other Changes to the 4D-Var AnalysisOther Changes to the 4D-Var Analysis(Stéphane Laroche, MRD)
GEM-Glb New GEM-Glb
Outer loops 2 2
High-resolution (trajectory)
400x200x28L
Time step = 45 min
800x600x58L
Time step = 15 min
NL- Physics Same as GEM-Glb Same as new model
Inner loops 40 + 30 = 70 30 + 25 = 55
Simplified Physics -PBL & SGO-Stratiform precip.-Deep convection
-PBL & SGO-Stratiform precip.
Low-resolution (Analysis increments)
240x120x28L
Time step = 45 min
240x120x58L
Time step = 45 min
Error statistics NMC (1999) NMC (revised)
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Horizontal GridHorizontal Grid
EnvironmentCanada CPOP – 11 April 2006
Opérationnel Global-méso400X200 -> 100 km 800X600 -> 33 km at 45o N
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Vertical LevelsVertical Levels
Opérationnel10hPa
28 eta levelsDZ (km)
Global-méso10hPa
58 eta levelsDZ (km)
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
JAN 2002
Contours:(mm/day)0-11-5 5-1010-20>20
Global Evaluation of PrecipitationGlobal Evaluation of Precipitation
GPCP
NEW
OPE
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
GPCP
NEW
OPE
JUL 2002
Contours:(mm/day)0-11-5 5-1010-20>20
Global Evaluation of PrecipitationGlobal Evaluation of Precipitation
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSMGlobal Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I/I
WINTER
new opeSSMI-13
new opeSSMI-13
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSMGlobal Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I/I
SUMMER
new opeSSMI-13
new opeSSMI-13
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Pre-implementation testingPre-implementation testing
Evaluation was done on 2 periods of two months each:
Summer 2004: 15 july @ 15 sept. 2004Winter 2005: 15 dec 2004 @ 15 feb 2005
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
EnvironmentCanada
Objective Evaluation Against AnalysesObjective Evaluation Against AnalysesAnomaly Correlations (Northern Hem.)Anomaly Correlations (Northern Hem.)
Summer Winter
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
EnvironmentCanada
Objective Evaluation Against AnalysesObjective Evaluation Against AnalysesAnomaly Correlations (Southern Hem.)Anomaly Correlations (Southern Hem.)
Summer Winter
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Tropics
72-h forecasts
RMSE and BIAS
125 SUMMER cases
Blue: Operational model
Red: Global Meso
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Precipitation over North AmericaPrecipitation over North America(day 3)(day 3)
Summer Winter
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Typhoons over 14 cases (3-day runs)Typhoons over 14 cases (3-day runs)
EnvironmentCanada
(Anne-Marie Leduc, CMC)
Central pressure (hPa)
Position (km)
Erreur moyenne sur la position (14 cas)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Heure de prevision
err
eu
r m
oy
en
ne
(K
M)
meso
oper
Erreur moyenne de la pression centrale (14 cas)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Heure de prevision
Err
eu
r m
oy
en
ne
(M
B)
meso
oper
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Winter 2007 : more observations & revised statistics
• AIRS & SSMI radiances• 3 hourly sfc data• Off-line biais correction for radiances data.• Revised background & observation errors
statistics• More low level AMV’s• SSMI/S radiances• QuikSCAT• Metop ATOVS amsu-a & mhs• COSMIC refractivity
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
AIRS assimilation
• 100 channels selected from 281 set• Use center pixel of 3 X 3 array (warmest now
available) • Eliminate channels sensitive to ozone, peaking above
model top at 10hPa, redundant surface channels, complex Jacobian shapes, with large RTM errors
Identify channels insensitive to clouds. Main criteria:• Cloud height and emissivity from CO2 slicing. Local
dtau/dp must be negligible up to 50hpa above cloud.• Background check (+/- 3 )
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
AIRS assimilation
Short global cyclewith current operational model (0,9o)
February 2004
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
SSMI assimilation :Experiment Description
• Periods: July 1-31, 2003 ; January 1-31, 2004• Control: 3D-Var, Global 0.9o model, direct
assim. of GOES-W, and NOAA15,16,17* AMSU-A & AMSU-B Tbs, plus conventional obs
• Experiment 1: addition of SSM/I Tbs over oceans in clear skies
• Experiment 8: addition of SSM/I Tbs & removal of AMSU-A CH3, & reject AMSU-B CH2, 3, 4, 5 over oceans where CH2 |O-B| 5K
(*AMSU-A data unavailable for January 2004)
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Mean Integrated Water Vapour (kg m-2): AMSRE – ANALYSIS
July 2003 January 2004
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Forecast Validation Using Analyses
CNTLEXP8
CNTLEXP1
January 2004
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
New Background Error Covariances
• 3-D background error std dev computed using Monte Carlo approach
• Will replace the NMC approach used for current operational system.
• Higher values in tropics than extra-tropics and higher values over oceans than over continents
Streamfunction at 500hPa(filtered to T20)
Winter 2007 : Updated background and observation error statistics (Mark Buehner, MRD)
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Background Error Spatial Correlations
• Analysis increment from single zonal wind observation at 500hPa over Atlantic ocean
• New approach gives sharper spatial correlations for all variables
• Sharper vertical correlations for temperature results in smaller background error variance in space of AMSU-A observations, compensated by reduction in σobs
NMC method Monte Carlo method
NMC methodMonte Carlo method
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Future development
• 2007-08+ :– Raise global model lid to 0,1 hPa– More obs :
• High level peaking channels from AIRS & ATOVS
• Hourly sfc pressure data• More GEO radiances• Scat winds (ASCAT)• AQ data
– GEM-LAM Continental/Local 4D-Var LAM
Environnement EnvironmentCanada CanadaData Assimilation and QualityControl Division
Meteorological Service of CanadaStatus Report
19th Noam-Europe Data Exchange Meeting3-5 May, 2006
Thank you