j.p. morgan thailand conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › pres ›...

21
J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference February 5, 2015

Upload: others

Post on 05-Jul-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

J.P. Morgan Thailand ConferenceFebruary 5, 2015

Page 2: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

Disclaimer

The presentation is dated the day it is given. The delivery of this presentation shall not,under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been no change in theaffairs of the Company since such date. The third party information and statistical datain this presentation have been obtained from sources the Company believes to bereliable but in no way are warranted by the Company as to accuracy or completeness.This presentation may not contain all material information concerning the Company andthe information set forth in this material is subject to change without notice.

These materials included herein that are not historical facts are forward-lookingstatements. Such forward looking statements involve a number of risks anduncertainties and are subject to change at any time. In the event such risks oruncertainties materialize, AAV’s results could be materially affected. The risks anduncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the inherentuncertainty of airline travel, seasonality issues, volatile jet fuel prices, world terrorism,perceived safe destination for travel, Government regulation changes and approval,including but not limited to the expected landing rights into new destinations.

This presentation is strictly not to be distributed without the explicit consent ofCompany’s management under any circumstances.

Page 3: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

Thailand Market

• A decrease in number of tourist by 6.7% YoY resulted from the Martial law

• NCPO agreed to a proposal to waive visa entry fee for Chinese & Taiwanese from 9 Aug to 8 Nov 2014

• Continual increasing trend of LCCs, capturing 39% of the market (both domestic & international)

YTD2014: Tourists by nationality; East Asia & European still driven market

10.1 11.7 11.613.8 14.5 14.6 14.1 15.9

19.122.3

26.5 24.8

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Thailand’s Department of Tourism

Continual strong tourists arrivals in the last 11-year

57.466.3

76.188.3 90.5

14.0 17.7 21.9 28.2 35.0

24.4%26.6%

28.8%31.9%

38.6%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

All traffics LCC traffics LCC penetration

Growing LCC penetration based on AOT passenger traffics (million)

Source: AOT’s (December)

Source: Immigration Bureau, Police Department. (December)

SARS Tsunami Flood

H1N1 outbreak, red mob invasion

Suvarnabhumiairport closure

Bird flu

PoliticalProtest

CoupCoup

January - December

Nationality2014 2013 %∆

Number %Share Number %Share 2014/2013East Asia 14,561,527 58.76 15,911,375 59.94 -8.48ASEAN 6,620,231 26.72 7,282,266 27.43 -9.09China 4,623,806 18.66 4,637,335 17.47 -0.29Hong Kong 483,883 1.95 588,335 2.22 -17.75Japan 1,265,307 5.11 1,536,425 5.79 -17.65Korea 1,117,449 4.51 1,295,342 4.88 -13.73Taiwan 392,758 1.58 502,176 1.89 -21.79Others 58,093 0.23 69,496 0.26 -16.41Europe 6,156,132 24.84 6,305,945 23.75 -2.38The Americas 1,104,714 4.46 1,166,633 4.39 -5.31South Asia 1,251,558 5.05 1,347,585 5.08 -7.13Oceania 947,242 3.82 1,021,936 3.85 -7.31Middle East 593,000 2.39 630,243 2.37 -5.91Africa 165,595 0.67 163,008 0.61 1.59Grand Total 24,779,768 100.00 26,546,725 100.00 -6.66

(million)

3

Page 4: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

Began services from Bangkok to Phuket, Chiang Mai and Singapore with two Boeing 737 aircraft

Moved from Don Mueang Airport to Suvarnabhumi Airport

Received first delivery Airbus A320

Launched second hub in Phuket

All new Airbus A320 fleet

Moved back to Don Mueang Airport

Owned first aircraft in our book

Received first delivery of A320 sharklet

Launched Third hub in Chiang Mai

The World Best LCC’s OTP Flightstats

Business Overview• Shareholding structure:

• AAV’s Market Cap Baht 22,310Million (USD 685 Million)• IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012)• Thai AirAsia - leading low-cost carrier(“LCC”) in Thailand• Operates with all new 40 Airbus A320 (9M2014)• Hubs in Bangkok, Phuket, Chiang Mai and Krabi• Having low cost model with:

– Low air fares with no free frills– Point-to-point operation within 4 hours– Short turnaround time of 25 minutes– Young, single-class A320 fleet– High aircraft utilization of 10.7 hours (9M2014)– Low distribution costs as 80% sales through Internet– Economies of scale

• Strong partnership with AirAsia Berhad (Bursa ticker “AIRA”)

Key milestones:

2004

2007

2010

2011

2014

AirAsiaBerhad Management

Thai AirAsia(Opco)

Public

100%

45%

46% 54%

55%

AirAsiaInvestment

Asia Aviation(Listco)

2012

2009

2013

2014

Launched Fourth hub in Krabi

World’s Best LCC 6 Times, SKYTRAX

Note: Assuming 32.50 Baht = 1 USD 4

Page 5: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

9M2014 Key Highlights• Soften load factor of 80% (-4 ppts YoY)

• Passengers carried at 8.8 million, up by 16% from prior year, whilecapacity increased by 22% YoY

• World’s Best Low Cost Airline for 6 years straight and Best Asian Low Cost Carrier’ for the 8 times by TTG Travel

• No. 1 LCC market in both domestic and international1

• Effect on intense competition, Average fare soften by 14% YoYto sustain load factor, causing RASK soften by 13% YoY

• Tight control on cost, CASK ex-fuel maintained at Baht 0.94 YoY,although CASK slightly raised by 1% YoY to Baht 1.67

• Sustained excellent on time performance at 92% (9M2013 : 93%)

• 40 aircraft as at 9M2014 (9M2013:31) with utilization 10.7 hrs/day

• TAA’s cash balance of Baht 4.4 Billion2 (net debt/equity 1.40X)

Note : 1 As of September 2014 (Resource : AAV, AOT and DCA)2 Including cash and cash equivalents, S-T investments, Investment in private funds.

5

Page 6: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

6 9 12 12 8 83 8 12

19 22 27 35 40 45 50 55 60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

Boeing

Airbus

Fleet Plan

• 40 aircraft as of 9M2014• All A320s with single-class 180 seats

capacity

• Average age of 3 years 5 months(9M2014)

• As of 9M2014 – 28 operating leases– 12 finance leases

6

Unit: Aircraft5-year fleet plan:

Confirmed expansion plan:Fleet profile:

• Planned 5 new deliveries in 2015F• 3 more deliveries in 1H2015 • 2 more deliveries in 2H2015

+5 +5+5

+5 +5

Page 7: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

Route movements:

Additional frequencies: New destinations:

3Q14 • Chiangmai – Phuket (3rd ) (Jul)

• Bangkok-Khon Kaen (4th ) (Aug)

4Q14 • Chiangmai -Krabi (2nd) (Oct)

• Bangkok – Siem Reap (3rd ) (Dec)

• Bangkok –Sakon Nakhon(1st,2nd)(Oct)

• Chiangmai –Surat Thani (1st) (Nov)

• Krabi-Guangzhou (1st) (Nov)

Route Network

7

As at end of: 3Q2014

No. of routes

- Domestic

- International

45

18

27

No. of daily flights

(Dom:Int’l -> 61:39)

202

Page 8: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

Average fare* slightly on sideway

4.5 5.4 4.0 5.0 6.4

3.03.4

2.93.3

4.1

9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013

Domestic International

7.5

+16% YoY

8.8

+27% YoY

1,9051,641

1,942 1,977 1,885

9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013

-5% YoY-14% YoY

9,35811,042

9,19910,499

12,951

9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013

+18% YoY

+23% YoY

Operational Highlights

8

84%80% 80% 82% 83%

9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013

-4 ppts YoY

Soften load factorRocketing Passengers carriedUnit: Million passengers

Continue expanding ASK Unit: Million Unit: Baht per pax

* Included fuel surcharge

6.9

10.5

8.3+1 ppt YoY

Page 9: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

0.94 0.94 0.89 0.94 0.95

0.71 0.73 0.69 0.75 0.72

122.7 120.9 124.0 126.7 122.8

9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013

Maintaining Cost Disciplined

9

Revenue per ASK (RASK)

1.81

1.58

1.76 1.84 1.81

9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013

Unit:Baht

Cost per ASK (CASK) and Cost per ASK ex-fuel (CASK ex-fuel)

-13% YoY

Unit: Baht

9M2013 Cost breakdown

1.691.65 1.581.67

CASK ex-fuel

Fuel Cost

Jet1 ($/bbl)

+1% YoY

SG&A,7%

Fuel,43%

Aircraft lease,15%

Staff,10%

Repair and maintenance,9%

Ramp and airport operation,8%

Guest service and distribution,5%

Dep. & amort.,2%

9M2014 Cost breakdown

Fuel,44%

Aircraft lease,15%

Staff,9%

Repair and maintenance,8%

Ramp and airport operation,9%

Guest service and distribution,4%

Dep. & amort.,3%

SG&A,7%

Others, 1%Others, 1%

-2% YoY

1.67-1% YoY

1 MOPS Singapore

Page 10: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

Ancillaries Enhancement

Strategies:

• Expanding “Fly-Thru” up to 138 flights

• Introducing more combos & add-ons purchases

• Adding more travel-related products

• Revamping website for higher ancillaries

conversion

• On-Board WiFi

10

2,6603,147

2,6272,941

3,759

353 359 383354 358

9M13 9M14 2011 2012 2013

Ancillary revenue (Baht mil.)

Ancillary per pax(Baht)

+2% YoY

+18% YoY

+1% YoY

Page 11: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

2015F Looking Forward• Seeing recovery as passenger traffic rebound

• Average fare will improve by 3-5%

• Average Jet1 fuel price will be in a range of $85-$95/BBL

• 5 additions in 2015F (FY2014: 40 aircraft being 28 OLs vs 12 FLs)

• 2015F targets of 14.5 mil pax with 83% LF (FY2014: 12.2 mil pax and 80% LF)

• Targeting ancillary revenue per pax at 371 Baht

• Refocusing on Domestic and Domestic hub to hub

• Enhancing connectivity within our network via fly-thru

1111

1 MOPS Singapore

Page 12: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

Email: [email protected] : (+66) 02 5625745-6

Page 13: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

Potential TAAX contributionBackground:

• JV between 49% AirAsia X in Malaysia (AAX)

and 51% Thai individuals

• Medium-haul LCC model flying 4-8 hours

• A330-300 fleet of 377 seats (365 seats

+ 12 flat beds)

• Connecting North Asia and Australia

markets to Don Mueang hub (DMK)

Updates:

• 2 aircraft in 2014 and take in 4 aircraft in 2015

• 1st commerce flight to Incheon on June 17th 2014

• 1st commence flights DMK-NRT and

DMK-KIX on September 2014

13

Page 14: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

1,371 870

4,726

3,104

3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14

5,595 5,559

16,984 17,479

3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14

297

(382)

1,535

(455)

3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14

TAA : Financial Highlights

14

Unit: Million Baht

RevenueRevenueUnit: Million Baht

EBITDAREBITDAR

Net ProfitNet Profit3Q13 VS 3Q14 • Revenue slightly decreased by 1% due to a decrease in Avg.

fare, despite an increase in an ancillary income• EBITDAR margin soften at 16%(-9 ppts YoY) mainly from

lower revenue and a higher operating cost • Net loss at Baht 382 million due to an increase in aircraft

rental and depreciation in relation to fleet expansion9M2013 VS 9M2014• Revenue increased by 3% in relation to an increase in

ancillary income• EBITDAR margin dropped at 18% (-10 ppts YoY) due to a

higher operating cost • Net loss at Baht 455 million resulting from a rise in aircraft

rental and depreciation in relation to fleet expansion

-1% YoY

+3% YoY

->100% YoY ->100% YoY

-37% YoY

-34% YoY

Unit: Million Baht

Page 15: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

158

(209)

820

(246)3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14

AAV : Financial Highlights

5,595 5,559

16,984 17,479

3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14

15

Unit: Million Baht

RevenueRevenueUnit: Million Baht

Net Profit/loss (Parent)Net Profit/loss (Parent)

3Q13 VS 3Q14 • Revenue was at Baht 5,559 million (-1% YoY) • Net loss (Parent) was Baht 209 million (-232% YoY) • Basic Loss Per Share 0.04 baht/share

9M13 VS 9M14• Revenue was at Baht 17,479 million (+3% YoY) • Net loss (Parent) was Baht 246 million (-130% YoY) • Basic Loss Per Share 0.05 baht/share

-1% YoY

+3% YoY

->100% YoY

0.03

(0.04)

0.17

(0.05)3Q13 3Q14 9M13 9M14

Unit: Baht

Basic EPSBasic EPS

->100% YoY

->100% YoY ->100% YoY

Page 16: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

TAA Statement of Net Income

16

Unit: Baht million 3Q14 3Q13 Change 9M14 9M13 Change

Revenues 5,558.6 5,595.1 -1% 17,479.4 16,983.8 3%

Operating costs (5,618.7) (4,909.9) 14% (17,059.4) (14,271.4) 20%

Other income & gain on FOREX 281.2 181.9 55% 687.6 551.7 25%

Total SG&A (499.0) (418.6) 19% (1,372.8) (1,168.1) 18%

EBIT (277.9) 448.5 >-100% (265.2) 2,096.0 >-100%

Finance costs (87.1) (50.0) 74% (205.7) (113.6) 81%

Income tax (17.1) (101.2) -83% 15.8 (447.4) >-100%

Net profit/ Total comprehensive income (382.1) 297.3 >-100% (455.1) 1,535.0 >-100%

Earnings per share (THB) -8.77 6.83 >-100% -10.45 35.24 >-100%

Net profit margin -7% 5% -12 ppts -3% 9% -12 ppts

EBIT margin -5% 8% -13 ppts -2% 12% -14 ppts

EBITDA margin -1% 10% -11 ppts 2% 14% -12 ppts

EBITDAR margin 16% 25% -9 ppts 18% 28% -10 ppts

Page 17: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

TAA Statement of Financial Position

17

*Including cash and cash equivalents, S-T investments, Investment in private funds.

Unit: Baht million 3Q14 2013 Change

Cash and equivalents* 4,415.9 6,437.7 -31%Aircraft, leasehold improvements, Equipment-net

15,844.2 10,835.9 46%

Intangible assets 12.4 12.0 3%

Other non-current assets 802.5 817.6 -2%

Total assets 24,474.3 21,107.9 16%

Deferred revenues 4,791.6 4,299.2 11%

Finance lease liabilities 11,987.3 8,160.8 47%

Deferred tax liabilities, net 328.9 309.7 6%

Total liabilities 19,073.1 15,251.5 25%

Paid-up share capital 435.6 435.6 0%

Premium on share capital 2,628.8 2,628.8 0%

Retained earnings 2,336.9 2,792.0 -16%

Total shareholders’ equity 5,401.2 5,856.3 -8%

Page 18: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

TAA Key Operational Statistics

18

3Q14 3Q13 Change 9M2014 9M2013 Change

Passengers carried (million) 2.85 2.56 12% 8.78 7.54 16%

Capacity (million seats) 3.47 3.06 13% 10.97 8.97 22%

Load factor 82% 83% -1 ppt 80% 84% -4 ppts

RPK (million) 2,957 2,769 7% 8,870 7,934 12%

ASK( million) 3,553 3,282 8% 11,042 9,358 18%

No. of stages flown 19,280 17,018 13% 60,936 49,830 22%

Average stage length (km) 1,024 1,071 -4% 1,000 1,043 -4%

Average fare (THB) 1,592 1,842 -14% 1,641 1,905 -14%

RASK (THB) 1.56 1.70 -8% 1.58 1.81 -13%

CASK (THB) 1.72 1.62 6% 1.67 1.65 1%

CASK ex-fuel (THB) 1.00 0.91 10% 0.94 0.94 0%

Page 19: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

AAV Statement of Comprehensive Income

19

Unit: THB million ConsolidatedChange

Consolidated

Change3Q14 3Q13 9M14 9M13

Revenues 5,558.6 5,595.1 -1% 17,479.4 16,983.8 3%

Operating costs (5,621.0) (4,914.6) 14% (17,070.2) (14,287.6) 19%

Other income & gain on FOREX 281.2 182.0 55% 688.2 552.5 25%

Total SG&A (497.1) (422.7) 18% (1,369.9) (1,187.8) 15%

EBIT (278.3) 439.8 >-100% (272.5) 2,060.9 >-100%

Finance costs (87.1) (50.0) 74% (205.7) (113.6) 81%

Income tax (17.0) (99.9) -83% 21.3 (445.6) >-100%

Net profit/ Total comprehensive income (382.4) 289.8 >-100% (456.9) 1,501.7 >-100%

Net profit attributable to parent (209.0) 158.3 >-100% (246.4) 820.3 >-100%

Non-controlling interests (173.4) 131.5 >-100% (210.5) 681.4 >-100%

Earnings per share (THB) -0.04 0.03 >-100% -0.05 0.17 >-100%

Page 20: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

AAV Statement of Financial Position

20

*Including cash and cash equivalents, S-T investments, Investment in private funds.

Unit: THB millionConsolidated

Change9M2014 2013

Cash and equivalents* 4,419.4 6,439.8 -31%

Aircraft, leasehold improvements, Equipment -net 15,948.8 10,956.0 46%

Intangible assets 14,869.0 14,868.7 0%

Goodwill 8,824.8 8,824.8 0%Total assets 48,288.5 44,935.3 7%Deferred revenues 4,791.6 4,299.2 11%Finance lease liabilities 11,987.3 8,160.8 47%Deferred tax liabilities, net 3,323.3 3,309.7 0%Total liabilities 22,070.1 18,260.0 21%Paid-up share capital 485.0 485.0 0%Premium on share capital 2,599.8 2,599.8 0%Retained earnings 16,014.7 16,261.1 -2%

Equity attributable to parent 19,099.5 19,345.9 -1%Non-controlling interests 7,118.9 7,329.4 -3%Total shareholders’ equity 26,218.4 26,675.3 -2%

Page 21: J.P. Morgan Thailand Conference - listed companyaav.listedcompany.com › misc › PRES › 20150205-aav-silde... · • IPO 3.70 Baht/Share, Par @ 0.10 Baht/Share (May 2012) •

GlossaryLoad Factor = Represents the number of passengers carried as a proportion to capacity, which is the number of seats available for passengers (180 seats for Airbus A320)Available seat kilometers (ASK) = which is the total number of seats available on scheduled flights multiplied by the number of kilometers these seats were flownRevenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) = Revenue passenger kilometers, which is the number of paying passengers carried on scheduled flights multiplied by the number of kilometers those seats were flownAverage Fare = Calculated as Thai AirAsia's total passenger revenues and fuel surcharge divided by total number of passengers carriedRevenue per ASK (RASK) = Calculated as Thai AirAsia's revenues divided by ASKCost per ASK (CASK) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) divided by ASKCost per ASK (CASK ex-fuel) = Calculated as the sum of Thai AirAsia's operating costs, selling expenses and administrative expenses (but excluding finance costs) less fuel costs divided by ASKAverage stage length (kilometer) = Represents the average number of kilometers flown per flightAircraft Utilization = Represents the average block hours per day per aircraft during the relevant period. Block hours is calculated by measuring the duration between the time of departure of an aircraft and the time of arrival at its destination.On time performance (%) = A flight is deemed "on time" if the actual departure time is no more than 15 minutes of the scheduled departure time.

21