juan a. ortega, jesus torres, rafael m. gasca, departamento de lenguajes y sistemas informáticos...

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Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis of semiqualitative dynamic models with constraints

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Page 1: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos

University of Seville (Spain)

A new methodology for analysis of semiqualitative dynamic models

with constraints

A new methodology for analysis of semiqualitative dynamic models

with constraints

Page 2: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Model that evolves in the time Qualitative and quantitative knowledge Constraints

+

Objectives

Semiqualitative model with constraints

Semiqualitative model with constraints

Study its

temporal evolution Obtain its

behaviour patterns

Page 3: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Two interconnected tank system

Objectives

p

r1 r2

• Evolve in the time

t0

x2

x1

t1 t2 t3 • • • tf

Page 4: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Two interconnected tanks system

Objectives

• Qualitative and quantitative knowledge - p is a moderadately positive influent

- x1,x2 contain a slightly positive quantity

of liquid at the initial time

p

r1 r2

x2

x1

0.4 x2

0.6 x2

g1r1 = g1 ( x1 – x2 )

h1

5

8

y0

x0 +0

0

r2 = h1 ( x2 )

Page 5: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Two interconnected tank system

Objectives

p

r1 r2

x2

x1

• Constraints

- Height of the tanks is moderately positive

Page 6: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Two interconnected tank system

Objectives

p

r1 r2

x2

x1

• Evolve in the time• Qualitative and quantita- tive knowledge• Constraints

Semiqualitative model withconstraints

Semiqualitative model withconstraints

Study its

temporal evolution

Obtain its

behavior patterns

Page 7: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Two interconnected tanks system

– Study its temporal evolution

Objectives

p

r1 r2

x2

x1

• If always the system reaches a stable equilibrium

• If it is reached an equilibrium where x1 < x2

• If sometime the height of a tank is overflowed

• If sometime x1 < x2

Page 8: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Two interconnected tanks system

– Obtain its behaviour patterns

Objectives

p

r1 r2

x2

x1

• Depending on the influent p:– “a tank is overflowed”

– “a tank is no overflowed and always x1>x2“

– “a tank is no overflowed and sometime x1<x2”

if p > 0.4 then a tank is overflowed

if p > 0.1 & p < 0.4 then

a tank is no overflowed & always x1>x2 if p < 0.1 then

a tank is no overflowed & sometime x1<x2

Page 9: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Outline

Semiqualitative methodology Semiqualitative models Qualitative knowledge Generation of trajectories database Query/classification language Theoretical study of the conclusions Application to a logistic growth model with a

delay Conclusions and further work

Page 10: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Semiqualitative methodology

DynamicSystem

LabelledDatabase

Classification QueriesLearning

Transformation techniquesStochastic techniques

Quantitative Models M

F

SemiqualitativeModel S

Trajectory Database

Quantitative simulation

T

Modelling

Answers

System Behaviour

Page 11: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

A formalism to incorporate qualitative knowledge– qualitative operators and labels

– envelope functions

– qualitative continuous functions This methodology allows us to study all the states of a

dynamic system: stationary and transient states. Main idea: “A semiqualitative model is transformed into

a family of quantitative models. Every quantitative model has a different quantitative behaviour, however, they may have similar quantitative behaviours”

Semiqualitative methodology

Page 12: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Semiqualitative models

(x,x,y,q,t), x(t0) = x0 , 0 (q,x0 )

variables, parameters, ... numbers and intervals arithmetic operators and functions qualitative knowledge

qualitative operators and labels envelope functions qualitative continuous functions

• x: state variables x: derivative of x q: parameters y: auxiliary variables : constraints

dxdt

Page 13: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Qualitative operators– Every operator is defined by means of a real interval Iop.

– This interval is given by the experts– Unary qualitative operators U(e)

• Every qualitative variable has its own unary operators defined

Ux = {VNx , MNx , LNx , A0x , LPx , MPx , VPx }– Binary qualitative operators B(e1,e2)

• They are applied between two qualitative magnitudes

B = {=, , , «, , ~<, , ~>, , »}

Qualitative knowledge

Qualitative operators

Page 14: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

A envelope function represents the family of functions included between a upper function g and a lower one g into a domain I.

Qualitative knowledge

Envelope functions

x

I

y gg

y=g(x), <g(x), g(x), I> x I • g(x) g(x)

Page 15: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Qualitative knowledge

Qualitative continuous functions A qualitative continuous function represents a constraint in-

volving the values of y and x according to the properties of h

y=h(x) h {P1, s1, P2, ..., sk-1, Pk} with Pi =( di, ei ), si { +, -, 0 }

h {(–, +),–,(x0,0), –,(x1,y0),+,(x2,0),+,(0,y1),+,(x3,y2), –,(x4,0),–,(+,–)}

x0 x1 x2 x3 x4

y2

y1

y0

– +

h

0

Page 16: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Semiqualitative model S

Family of quantitative models F

Transformation techniques

(x,x,y,q,t), x(t ) = x , (q,x )0000

Transformationrules

x=f(x,y,p,t), x(t0) = x0, pIp, x0I0•

Page 17: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Database generation TT:={ }for i=1 to N

M := Choose Model (F) r := Quantitative Simulation (M) T := T r

Choose Model (F)for every interval parameter and qualitative variable p F

v:=Choose Value (Domain (p)) substitute p by v in M

for every function h F H:=Choose H (h) substitute h by H in M

Generation of trajectories database

r1

rn

T•••

Page 18: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Abstract Syntax

Query/classification language

QueriesQueries

Page 19: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Abstract Syntax

Query/classification language

ClassificationClassification

Page 20: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

If always the system reaches a stable equilibrium rT EQ

If it is reached an equilibrium where x1 < x2

rT EQ (always (t ~ tF x1<x2))

If sometime x1 < x2

rT sometime x1< x2

If always the system reaches a stable equilibrium rT EQ

If it is reached an equilibrium where x1 < x2

rT EQ (always (t ~ tF x1<x2))

If sometime x1 < x2

rT sometime x1< x2

p

r1 r2

x2

x1

true

false

true

Query/classification language

Page 21: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

It is very common to find growth processes in which an initial phase of exponential growth is followed by another phase of approaching to a saturation value asymptotically

They abound in natural, social and socio-technical systems:– evolution of bacteria,– mineral extraction– economic development– world population growth

t

Logisticgrowth

Decay andextinction

Application to a logistic growth model with a delay

t

Exponentialgrowth Asymptotic behaviour

Page 22: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Let S be a semiqualitative model of these systems where a delay has been added. Its differential equations are

x = (n h1(y) – m) x,y = delay(x),x >0,h1 {(–, –),+,(x0,0),+,(0,1),+,(x1,y0), –,(1,0),–,(+,–)}

x0 [LPx,MPx], [MP, VP], LPx (m), LPx (n)0

y0

h11

x0x1 1

– +0

Application to a logistic growth model with a delay

Page 23: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

We would like– to know if an equilibrium is always reached

– to know if there is logistic growth equilibrium

– to know if all the trajectories reach the decay equilibrium without oscillations

– to classify the database in accordance with the behaviours of the system

Applying the proposed methodology is obtained a time-series database

Application to a logistic growth model with a delay

Page 24: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

Queries

If an equilibrium is always reached rT EQ

If an equilibrium is always reached rT EQ

True, therefore there are no limit cycles

If there is a logistic growth equilibrium rT EQ always (t ~ tF x 0)

If there is a logistic growth equilibrium rT EQ always (t ~ tF x 0)

True (1st behaviour pattern)

If the decay equilibrium is reached without oscillations rT EQ always (t ~ tF x 0 ) (length([ x 0],{x}) 0)

If the decay equilibrium is reached without oscillations rT EQ always (t ~ tF x 0 ) (length([ x 0],{x}) 0) •

False, there are two ways to reach this equilibrium, with and without oscillations (2nd y 3rd behaviour patterns )

Application to a logistic growth model with a delay

Page 25: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

All time-series were classified with a label The obtained conclusions are in accordance when a mathema-

tical reasoning is carried out

Behaviour patterns

[r, EQ length([x 0],{x})>0 always (t ~ tF x 0)] recoved equil.

[r, EQ length([x 0],{x})>0 always (t ~ tF x 0)] ret. catast.

[r, EQ length([x 0],{x}) 0 always (t ~ tF x 0)] extinction

[r, EQ length([x 0],{x})>0 always (t ~ tF x 0)] recoved equil.

[r, EQ length([x 0],{x})>0 always (t ~ tF x 0)] ret. catast.

[r, EQ length([x 0],{x}) 0 always (t ~ tF x 0)] extinction

••

Application to a logistic growth model with a delay

Page 26: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

X/t

10 20 30 40 50t

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

X

Recovered equilibrium

10 20 30 40 50t

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

X

Extinction

10 20 30 40 50t

2

4

6

X

Retarded catastrophe

Application to a logistic growth model with a delay

Page 27: Juan A. Ortega, Jesus Torres, Rafael M. Gasca, Departamento de Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos University of Seville (Spain) A new methodology for analysis

A new methodology has been presented in order to automates the analysis of dynamic systems with qualitative and quantitative knowledge

The methodology applied a transformation process, stochastic techniques and quantitative simulation.

Quantitative simulations are stored into a database and a query/classification language has been defined

In the future– the language will be enrich with operators for comparing trajectories, and for comparing

regions of the same trajectory.

– Clustering algorithms will be applied in other to obtain automatically the behaviours of the systems

– Dynamic systems with explicit constraints and with multiple scales of time are also one of our future points of interest

Conclusions and further work