july 4 th 2012 severe weather case review and dss andrew loconto nws burlington, vt andrew loconto...
TRANSCRIPT
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July 4th 2012 Severe Weather Case Review and DSS
July 4th 2012 Severe Weather Case Review and DSS
Andrew Loconto
NWS Burlington, VT
Andrew Loconto
NWS Burlington, VT
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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
• Brief Background
• Synoptic-scale & Radar Overview
• NWS Decision Support Activities
• Brief Background
• Synoptic-scale & Radar Overview
• NWS Decision Support Activities
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IntroIntro
• High-end severe weather event coinciding with 4th of July holiday (many outdoors)
– Potentially bad things could have happened…
• NWS and Media Partners did an outstanding job given these circumstances
• High-end severe weather event coinciding with 4th of July holiday (many outdoors)
– Potentially bad things could have happened…
• NWS and Media Partners did an outstanding job given these circumstances
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Storm Reports from July 4thStorm Reports from July 4th
Notable Reports: 63 mph gust at BTV 75 mph gust at
Diamond Island Tennis Ball Hail in
Peasleeville, NY (Clinton County)
Ping-pong ball Hail in Canton NY
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Storms #1: Northeast Kingdom Mini-bow echo
Storm #2: “The Pig” Supercell in St. Lawrence County
Storm #3: Champlain Valley Bow Echo
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500mb jet of ~ 85 kts
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By 00z, 700mb winds increased to ~35-40kts due to passage of Quebec mid-level shortwave trough
700 mb Analyses
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Northwest Unidirectional Deep-layer shear profile
0-6km shear magnitudes support organized multicells/some supercells …
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22z LAPS Sfc-based CAPE/CIN & Sfc Obs
Much more stable in eastern VT due to first bow echo passing through ~1 hr earlier
CAPEs exceeded 3000 J/kg in Champlain Valley; similar CAPEs in southern St. Lawrence Cty.
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RAP 40km Deep-layer Shear at 21z
North Country deep-layer shear of 40-60kts higher than 00z ALB sounding (closer to strongest mid-level winds)
CAPEs in excess of 2000 J/kg for most of the North Country
Northwest Flow: Bad!
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Storm #1: Northeast Kingdom Bow EchoStorm #1: Northeast Kingdom Bow Echo
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Evidence of a hook-echo at 0.5° (~10,000 ft elev.)
TBSS signature indicative of hail
68 dbZ to 25 kft upradial of TBSS… probably big hail
5.1° Z (up to ~38 kft) … still had ~60 dbZ up to this height
6.4° Z (up to ~46 kft) … 52 dbz at this level!
Storm #2: “The Pig” – SLV SupercellStorm #2: “The Pig” – SLV Supercell
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Storm #2: “The Pig” – SLV SupercellStorm #2: “The Pig” – SLV Supercell
0.5° SRM: Broad Low-/mid-level rotational couplet (~10,000ft AGL)
6.4° SRM: Storm Top Divergence (~46,000 ft AGL)
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Storm #3: Champlain Valley Bow Echo @ 2215ZStorm #3: Champlain Valley Bow Echo @ 2215Z
Much of the impacted area very unstable (recall the > 3000 J/kg LAPS CAPE). No reason to believe storms wouldn’t continue to weaken…
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Storm #3: Champlain Valley Bow Echo @ 2310ZStorm #3: Champlain Valley Bow Echo @ 2310Z
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Office Decision Support Actions
Office Decision Support Actions
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DSS Activities: Work Log Entries
DSS Activities: Work Log Entries
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Use of Social Media:Storm ExpectationsUse of Social Media:Storm Expectations
Morning Pre-Storm “Heads-Up”
Severe T-Storm Watch issuance – great job of informing the public of the impending destructive wind threat!
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NWSChat Logs
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Will be updating this form soon Will be placed on the Severe Intranet
page for easy access Good place to document what worked
and what didn’t work out so well: Helps us improve as an office Identify Changes/Best Practices SWOP staffing model changes?
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SummarySummary
• High-end severe outbreak that took place during a busy holiday.
• Office decision support activities should serve as a model for future outbreaks.
• MANY THANKS to our media partners for getting the message out!
• High-end severe outbreak that took place during a busy holiday.
• Office decision support activities should serve as a model for future outbreaks.
• MANY THANKS to our media partners for getting the message out!