Shared & Divergent Histories Drive Future Dynamics of the Mongolian Plateau

GINGER R.H. ALLINGTON, WEI LI, JIQUAN CHEN, RANJEETJOHN, DANIEL G. BROWN

9th International Association for Landscape Ecology World CongressJuly 5-10, 2015 Portland, Oregon USA

Mongolian Plateau: divergent systems

(Chen et al. 2015 BioScience)

Modeling entire systems

System dynamics models• Provide insight into a system's

structure• Because of feedback loops, it’s

often difficult to infer the behavior of a system from its causal structure.

• Can be used to simulate alternative scenarios of system under different initial or boundary conditions.

NPP

Livestock Biomass-

+

+

+

PROCESS NOT PRODUCT

Xilingol model

Human Sector

Land Use

Sector

Environmental Sector

Suhkbatar model

Human Sector

Land Use

Sector

Environmental Sector

1: Increased Precipitation

2/3: End Environmental

Policies

4: No EnvPolicies / Decreased Urbanization

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT - Xilingol

1: Increased Urbanization & Industrialization 3: Increased

Privatization

2: Rural Infrastructure Development

SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT - Suhkbaatar

SCENARIOSXILINGOL SUHKBAATAR

Baserun: Continuation of current

conditions.

Scenario 1: Increased precipitation.

Scenario 2: No grassland protection policies.

Scenario 3: No restrictions to crop expansion.

Scenario 4: “Worst Case”

Baserun: Continuation of current conditions.

Scenario 1: Increased urbanization/industrializationScenario 2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure developmentScenario 3: Increased privatization of resources & services

Model outputs and predictions-Xilingol

Baserun: Continuation of current conditions.

1: Increased precipitation.

2: No grassland protection policies.

3: No restrictions to crop expansion.

4: “Worst Case”

Model outputs and predictions-SuhkbaatarBaserun: Continuation of current conditions.

1: Increased urbanization/industrialization2: Enhanced mobility/ communal cooperation /rural infrastructure development3: Increased privatization of resources & services

Key factors influencing dynamics of the two systems

1. Urbanization2. Policies promoting protection and restoration of grasslands (IMAR)3. Policies limiting cropland expansion (IMAR)4. Policies promoting rural infrastructure that supports community cooperation and mobility (MG)

KEY AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY IN MG MODEL:-Urbanization trends into the future -Impacts of CBRMs-Market Access -Absentee herders-Herd structure/composition-Categorical grassland classifications

(Chen et al. 2015 BioScience)