june 2007 the public opinion poll center. the formal inauguration of the popc took place in july...

June 2007June 2007

The Public Opinion Poll CenterThe Public Opinion Poll Center

The formal inauguration of the POPC took place in July

2003, in the attendance of the Egyptian prime minister.

The formal inauguration of the POPC took place in July

2003, in the attendance of the Egyptian prime minister.

Rapid measurement of Egyptian public opinion and helping decision makers in:

taking decisions related to national, regional and international social and economic issues.

laying down policies and decisions related to different issues.

Rapid measurement of Egyptian public opinion and helping decision makers in:

taking decisions related to national, regional and international social and economic issues.

laying down policies and decisions related to different issues.

Goals

Strengthening connection between the government and the people.Strengthening connection between the government and the people.

Building a social culture that accepts the idea of public opinion, and encourages positive participation.Building a social culture that accepts the idea of public opinion, and encourages positive participation.

Methodology

Data BaseData Base Sample DesignSample Design

Sample Size

Sample Size

Economic Level Calculator


ToolsTools

Telephone interviewing is the main data collection tool as it:

Enables the center to achieve its objectives.

Reaches remote areas, and enables researchers to reach respondents all over the country.

Facilitates contacting all segments of society (cultural, economic…etc.)

Costs less than other methods and efficiently allocates time.

Facilitates re-contacting respondents.

Facilitates the supervision and monitoring of the quality of the data collection process.

Telephone interviewing is the main data collection tool as it:

Enables the center to achieve its objectives.

Reaches remote areas, and enables researchers to reach respondents all over the country.

Facilitates contacting all segments of society (cultural, economic…etc.)

Costs less than other methods and efficiently allocates time.

Facilitates re-contacting respondents.

Facilitates the supervision and monitoring of the quality of the data collection process.

A database for publicly-listed land-line telephone numbers was the main source from which the sample was created. The database included almost 10.5 million home telephone numbers divided among 1,692 centrals, across all governorates.

A database for publicly-listed land-line telephone numbers was the main source from which the sample was created. The database included almost 10.5 million home telephone numbers divided among 1,692 centrals, across all governorates.

Methodology – cont’d


Sample Size

Sample Size



ToolsTools

0.4

6.510 10

0

5

10

15

2003 2004 2005 2006

Million

Increase in the number of telephone databases between 2003-2006

Increase in the number of specialized data bases between 2003-2006

1790

280

564

0

200

400

600

2003 2004 2005 2006

Thousand



Sample Size

Sample Size



ToolsTools

Random sample size is extracted according to the response rate of the pre-test.

Relative weights are given to represent different geographical areas, according to their actual representation in society.

Random sample size is extracted according to the response rate of the pre-test.

Relative weights are given to represent different geographical areas, according to their actual representation in society.

A uni-stage stratified sample is designed for Egyptian households in different governorates, after being divided into three geographic areas (urban governorates, Upper Egypt, Lower Egypt).

A uni-stage stratified sample is designed for Egyptian households in different governorates, after being divided into three geographic areas (urban governorates, Upper Egypt, Lower Egypt).



Sample Size

Sample Size



ToolsTools

Many factors are taken into consideration when deciding the sample size: accepted sampling errors, level of confidence in results, and sample size used by several international public polling institutions.

Many factors are taken into consideration when deciding the sample size: accepted sampling errors, level of confidence in results, and sample size used by several international public polling institutions.

Sample size ranges between 1,000 - 2,000 according to the type and nature of the poll.Sample size ranges between 1,000 - 2,000 according to the type and nature of the poll.



Sample Size

Sample Size



ToolsTools

Many international public opinion poll centers typically use a sample size of 1,000 to 1,500.Many international public opinion poll centers typically use a sample size of 1,000 to 1,500.


Example: Even though the population of the United States of America is over 300 million, with an adult population of more than 200 million, yet public opinion poll centers use a sample size of 1,000-1,500. This sample size achieves a balance between accuracy and cost, which increases relative to the increase in the size of the sample.

Example: Even though the population of the United States of America is over 300 million, with an adult population of more than 200 million, yet public opinion poll centers use a sample size of 1,000-1,500. This sample size achieves a balance between accuracy and cost, which increases relative to the increase in the size of the sample.

GallupGallup1000

Pew Research CenterPew Research Center1500


Sample Size

Sample Size



ToolsTools

Populus Populus 1000

The economic level of a family is decided according to its ownership of certain possessions, such as mobile phones, cable TV, private cars, air conditioners, and computers.

The economic level of a family is decided according to its ownership of certain possessions, such as mobile phones, cable TV, private cars, air conditioners, and computers.

Factor analysis methods are used to calculate the economic level of the families and divide them into three economic levels; low, medium, and high.

Factor analysis methods are used to calculate the economic level of the families and divide them into three economic levels; low, medium, and high.



Sample Size

Sample Size



ToolsTools

Automation of work proceduresIn order to guarantee continuous development, and make use of international experiences, the POPC sought to automate its work through the Electronic Management System (EMS) for public opinion polls, which operated in June 2006, to ensure that work is completed in a fast and accurate manner.

In order to guarantee continuous development, and make use of international experiences, the POPC sought to automate its work through the Electronic Management System (EMS) for public opinion polls, which operated in June 2006, to ensure that work is completed in a fast and accurate manner.

The EMS is one of the pioneer specialized programs in the Middle East in the field of managing public opinion polls electronically, offering employees of POPC methods of designing and conducting polls, as well as extracting reports, statistics and results. This helps specialists extract results and analysis in a correct scientific method.

The EMS is one of the pioneer specialized programs in the Middle East in the field of managing public opinion polls electronically, offering employees of POPC methods of designing and conducting polls, as well as extracting reports, statistics and results. This helps specialists extract results and analysis in a correct scientific method.

Work Strategy

Work StrategiesCooperation with

National and International Organizations

Urgent Assignments

Annual Plan

POPC researchers are trained by professional experts in conducting telephone interviews, dealing with respondents, as well as extracting results, preparing reports and displaying the results using different statistical analysis methods (both qualitative and quantitative).

POPC researchers are trained by professional experts in conducting telephone interviews, dealing with respondents, as well as extracting results, preparing reports and displaying the results using different statistical analysis methods (both qualitative and quantitative).

POPC human resources

Increase in the number of staffbetween 2003-2006

1220 25

50

0

25

50

75

2003 2004 2005 2006

number

POPC rules

Ensuring absolute precision in all stages of the poll.11

Objectiveness and scientific integrity in analyzing data and presenting the results.

22

Protecting the privacy of the respondents’ data.33

No hesitation in offering consultancy to similar institutions, as the POPC is a pioneer in this field.

44

The Cabinet

Different ministries such as the Ministry of Information, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Health and Population and the Ministry of Finance.

Government institutions such as the Social Fund for Development and the National Council for Childhood and Motherhood.

Research centers.

National councils.

The Cabinet

Different ministries such as the Ministry of Information, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Health and Population and the Ministry of Finance.

Government institutions such as the Social Fund for Development and the National Council for Childhood and Motherhood.

Research centers.

National councils.

Partners

United Nations Development Program.

World Trade Organization.

GlobeScan.

International Labour Organization.

United Nations Development Program.

World Trade Organization.

GlobeScan.

International Labour Organization.

National PartnersInternational Partners

Beneficiaries2003-2006

152

5

0

50

100

150

200

Local International

polls

The natural diversity in the cultural level of the respondents places a burden on researchers, who have to be well-trained in posing questions, according to the respondent's educational level.

The natural diversity in the cultural level of the respondents places a burden on researchers, who have to be well-trained in posing questions, according to the respondent's educational level.

Cultural ChallengesCultural Challenges

Challenges facing POPC

Many negative phenomena such as telephone annoyances and the selling and marketing of un-necessary products by phone make Egyptian citizens lack trust in telephone interviewing.

Many negative phenomena such as telephone annoyances and the selling and marketing of un-necessary products by phone make Egyptian citizens lack trust in telephone interviewing.

The rate of telephone/person in Egyptian villages is relatively low compared to its rate in cities, and therefore sample size that depends on telephones may be slightly biased towards cities.

The rate of telephone/person in Egyptian villages is relatively low compared to its rate in cities, and therefore sample size that depends on telephones may be slightly biased towards cities.

Important challenges facing POPC

Methodological ChallengesMethodological Challenges

6.27.1

8.2 8.5

1.2 1.52.3 2.7

7.48.6

10.411.3

0246

81012

2000 2001 2002 2003

urban rural total

million

Total number of telephone lines(urban-rural)

Enhancing the POPC automation system to include automating the analytical operation, handling statistics and merging it into the management system of the polls to suit all needs.

Enhancing the POPC automation system to include automating the analytical operation, handling statistics and merging it into the management system of the polls to suit all needs.

Current Developments

Studying the possibility of merging different public opinion polls methodologies in an effort to represent all social segments and reach all those who are lesser represented in telephone-based public opinion polls.

Studying the possibility of merging different public opinion polls methodologies in an effort to represent all social segments and reach all those who are lesser represented in telephone-based public opinion polls.

Most Important Public Opinion Polls Conducted By POPC


The POPC conducted many polls that deal with

different economic, social and political issues, nationally,

regionally and internationally, which are

of concern to Egyptian public opinion.

The POPC conducted many polls that deal with

different economic, social and political issues, nationally,

regionally and internationally, which are

of concern to Egyptian public opinion.

1232

54 55

0

25

50

75

100

2003 2004 2005 2006

PollIncrease in annual outputs

2003-2006


2521

149 8 6 4 4 4

14

05

1015202530

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Poll topics2003-2006

Poll

Private tutoring (parents-students). Private tutoring (parents-students).

The return of sixth grade. The return of sixth grade.

Opinion of school students about school books. Opinion of school students about school books.

EducationEducation

InvestmentInvestment

Important problems that impede the growth of investment. Important problems that impede the growth of investment.

Companies poll about the role of the One-Stop Shop. Companies poll about the role of the One-Stop Shop.


Public opinion trend towards free-lancing. Public opinion trend towards free-lancing.

Satisfaction with public services. Satisfaction with public services.

Using e-government services. Using e-government services.

Competence of the Administrative Agency. Competence of the Administrative Agency.

Government ServicesGovernment Services

Unemployment And The Job MarketUnemployment And The Job Market

Government employees’ opinion about accepting part-time jobs in return for half the salary. Government employees’ opinion about accepting part-time jobs in return for half the salary.


Pharmacists’ opinion on the rise in the price of some medicines and the shortage of some medicines in the market.

Pharmacists’ opinion on the rise in the price of some medicines and the shortage of some medicines in the market.

The shift from in-kind to cash subsidies. The shift from in-kind to cash subsidies.

The effectiveness of the subsidy card system. The effectiveness of the subsidy card system.

SubsidiesSubsidies

HealthHealth

Subsidizing energy (electricity-gas-gas cylinders- solar).Subsidizing energy (electricity-gas-gas cylinders- solar).

The subsidy system. The subsidy system.

Public opinion poll on health insurance. Public opinion poll on health insurance.


The problem of child labor. The problem of child labor.

Services of the Social Fund for Development. Services of the Social Fund for Development.

Client PollsClient Polls

The World Trade Organization. The World Trade Organization.

The role that big companies play in society. The role that big companies play in society.

Media coverage of the Cup of African Nations. Media coverage of the Cup of African Nations.

Ramadan programs and television serials. Ramadan programs and television serials.


Public opinion on the ministerial formation. Public opinion on the ministerial formation.

Public opinion poll on the amendment of Article 76 of the Constitution. Public opinion poll on the amendment of Article 76 of the Constitution.

Political PollsPolitical Polls

Public opinion poll on the second annual conference for the National Democratic Party. Public opinion poll on the second annual conference for the National Democratic Party.

Public opinion poll on candidates running for presidential elections. Public opinion poll on candidates running for presidential elections.

Public opinion poll on the participation in elections. Public opinion poll on the participation in elections.


Public opinion poll on spending behaviors on mobile phones. Public opinion poll on spending behaviors on mobile phones.

Foreign currency market. Foreign currency market.

The effect of the Taba and Nuibae incidents on tourism in the South Sinai and the Red Sea governorates. The effect of the Taba and Nuibae incidents on tourism in the South Sinai and the Red Sea governorates.

The role of popular councils in confronting problems of development. The role of popular councils in confronting problems of development.

Citizens’ acceptance of buying used computers. Citizens’ acceptance of buying used computers.

Various PollsVarious Polls

Cairo Cab project. Cairo Cab project.


For further information about the POPC, please visit our website at:

http://www.pollcenter.idsc.gov.eg

For further information about the POPC, please visit our website at:

http://www.pollcenter.idsc.gov.eg

Public Opinion Poll Center Website

Thank You

june 2007 the public opinion poll center. the formal inauguration of the popc took place in july...

Documents

random sample size

economic issues

data collection process

main data collection

different issues

different governorates

different geographical

remote areas