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GlobalRetailOutlook,June2010 1

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June/2010

Global Retail OutlookThe outlook for consumer spending globally is being shaped by the three distinct ways that the world’s largest retail markets responded to the global economic downturn.

Emerging retail markets generally are at the extremes—either leading the pack with above-average growth rates or lagging the rest of the world with big declines. Between the extremes, the mature markets mostly managed modest declines or slight gains—although the United Kingdom was a key exception.

The three types of performance have shaken up Kantar Retail’s ranking of the best retail opportunities in the world. While China prospered during the downturn to remain at the top of the list, Russia’s struggles caused it to edge lower. Australia’s sustained growth allowed it to climb while the United Kingdom slipped amid its ongoing weakness.

The rankings—based on forecasts of spending on retail-related categories through 2015 and measures of market risks—include the mature markets of United States, Australia, Canada, and France among a Top 10 list that is otherwise dominated by emerging markets (China, Russia, Brazil, Malaysia, Vietnam and India). Among the 34 countries evaluated, four have an attractive combination of low risk and higher-than-average growth as illustrated in Kantar Retail’s Global Retail Opportunity Map.

THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK

Theextenttowhichinflation-adjustedconsumerspendingineachofthe34countriesroseorfellin2009inresponsetotheglobaleconomicdownturnillustratesthreedistinctpatterns(Figure1):

● Least hurt by downturn. Mostofthe10countriesthatgrewthestrongestin2009despitetheglobaldownturnareemergingretailmarkets:China,Vietnam,Indonesia,Brazil,India,thePhilippines,andPoland.Amongmatureretailmarkets,inflation-adjustedconsumerspendingwasleastaffectedbythedownturninAustraliaandSwitzerland.

● Most hurt by downturn. Emergingmarketsalsopredominatedamongthedozencountriesthatsawthebiggestinflation-adjusteddeclinesinconsumerspendingin2009:Nigeria,Russia,Mexico,SouthAfrica,andTurkey.TheUnitedKingdomisamongthematuremarketexceptionsonthislist,whichalsoincludesIrelandandGreece—twoofthecountrieswithbiggovernmentdeficitsatthecenteroftheso-calledsovereigndebtcrisis.

● Modestly hurt by downturn. Meanwhile,thecountriesbetweentheextremes—meaningtheyhadflatorinflation-adjustedspendinggrowthslightlyaboveorbelowzero—arepredominantlymaturemarkets.AmongthemFranceandAustriarecordedslightgains.SouthKorea,Canada,andGermanywereaboutflat.ModestdeclineswerepostedbytheUnitedStates,Portugal,Sweden,andJapan.MalaysiaandThailandareamongthefewemergingmarketsinthisgroup.

2 GlobalRetailOutlook,June2010

/ AuthorFrankBadillo(614)[email protected]

/ ContributorDougHermanson(614)[email protected]

/ Director, Retail Forward Intelligence System™MaryBrettWhitfield614.355.4010marybrett.whitfield@kantarretail.com

/ Production AssociateLisa A. Weiderman

© 2010 Kantar Retail. All rights reserved.COPYRIGHT NOTICE: No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form by photostat, microfilm, xerography, or any other

information retrieval system, electronic or mechanical, without the written permission of the copyright owner.

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About Kantar RetailCannondaleAssociates,GlendinningManagementConsultants,MVIandRetailForwardcombinetocreateKantarRetail,theworld’sleadingretailinsightsandconsultingbusiness.KantarRetail(www.kantarretail.com)workswithleadingretailersandbrandedmanufacturerstotransformthepurchasebehaviorofconsumers,shoppersandretailers.Thecompanysolvesclientissuesfromstrategictotacticalandprovidesorganizationswiththeskillsandcapabilitiestoact.KantarRetailoffersclientsbetterinternalalignmentandprojectefficiency,frominsightthroughstrategytoactivation,andacrossmarketingthroughcategorytosales.KantarRetailhasnearly400employeesandofficesin15marketsaroundtheglobe.ThecompanyisheadquarteredinLondonandispartoftheKantarGroupofWPP.

Global Retail OutlookTheShort-termOutlook................................................................. 1RankingtheLong-termOpportunity.............................................. 5MappingtheGlobalOpportunity..................................................... 6TheLargestRetailMarkets............................................................ 8TheLargestMarketsbyCategory.................................................. 8

AppendixFigureA1–SpendingonRetail-RelatedCategoriesbyCountry. 10FigureA2-ClothingandFootwearSpendingbyCountry............ 11FigureA3–HomeFurnishingsandEquipmentSpendingbyCountry........................................................................................ 12FigureA4–Food-at-homeSpendingbyCountry......................... 13FigureA5–Food-away-from-homeSpendingbyCountry.......... 14FigureA6-PopulationandSizeoftheEconomybyCountry,2009............................................................................................. 15FigureA7-PopulationGrowthRatesbyCountry........................ 16FigureA8-AgeDistributionbyCountry,2009............................. 17FigureA9-IncomeDistributionbyCountry.................................18


Asaresultofthevaryingimpactoftheeconomicdownturn,theshort-termpathoftherecoveryforthesethreegroupsofcountriesislikelytobeverydifferent(Figure2):

● China and fast growers face slowdown.Thequarter-by-quarterpathofconsumerspendingforthecountriesleasthurtbytheglobaldownturnisdominatedbytheimpactofChinaandIndia.Bothcountriesareseeinggrowthaccelerateintoearly2010asaresultofgovernmenteconomicstimulusefforts.Thesurginggrowthalsohaselevatedinflationpressuresthatthecountriesaretryingtodampen.Asaresult,growthshoulddownshifttowardamoremodest,sustainablepaceofgrowthbytheendof2010.Atthesametime,thesecountriesfacesomeriskofahardlanding.Inparticular,thepossibilityofspeculativebubbles(e.g.,realestate)inChinaalsocouldbecomeadragonglobalgrowth.

Figure 1Inflation-Adjusted Consumer Spending Growth in 2009 by Country

*EurozonemembersSource:NationalStatisticsOffices,Eurostat,OECDandKantarRetail

-10.2%-7.9%

-7.2%-6.1%

-4.8%-3.2%-3.1%-2.5%-2.0%-1.8%-1.8%-1.6%-1.1%-1.1%-1.0%-0.8%-0.6%

0.0%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.8%1.2%1.4%

2.2%2.8%

3.7%4.0%4.1%

4.9%5.4%

16.6%

NigeriaRussiaIreland*MexicoSpain*UnitedKingdomSouthAfricaNetherlands*TurkeyGreece*Italy*Belgium*ThailandJapanSwedenPortugal*UnitedStatesGermany*

CanadaSouthKorea

ArgentinaAustria*France*Malaysia

SwitzerlandTaiwan

AustraliaPoland

PhilippinesIndiaBrazil

IndonesiaVietnam

China

Figure 2Inflation-Adjusted Consumer Spending

*ExcludesVietnam,forwhichquarterlydataisnotavailable**ExcludesNigeria,forwhichquarterlydataisnotavailableSource:NationalStatisticsOffices,Eurostat,OECDandKantarRetail

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2007.1 2008.1 2009.1 2010.1

Forecast

(Percentchange year-to-Year,Weighted byCountry)

Countries least hurtbyrecession*

Countriesmodestlyhurtbyrecession

Countriesworsthurtbyrecession**


● Laggards face difficult recovery.Afalloffinoilandcommoditymarketswasasignificantfactorformanyofthecountrieshurtmostbytheglobaldownturn(e.g.,Nigeria,Russia,Mexico,SouthAfrica).Othercountriestookthebruntofthefinancialandsovereigndebtcrisis(e.g.,Ireland,Spain,UnitedKingdom,Greece).Asagroup,thesecountrieswereonlystartingtoseeyear-to-yeargrowthininflation-adjustedconsumerspendingreturninearly2010.Andforthecountriespressuredtocutgovernmentbudgetstoaddresssovereigndebtconcerns,theresultingdragsontheeconomymeanthatgrowthlikelywillremainweak,ifnotnegative,through2010beforegrowthprospectsimprovein2011andbeyond.

● Mature markets seeing modest recovery. Themostlymaturemarketsthatsawconsumerspendingmodestlyhitbythedownturnhavebeenquickertoseeareboundfromthedownturn.Thatreboundbecameevidentinthefourthquarterof2009andgatheredsteaminearly2010.Recoveryshouldpersistthrough2010,butitlikelywillnotacceleraterapidly.Manyofthecountriesinthisgroup,includingtheUnitedStates,willseeeconomicstimuluseffectswearoffatthesametimethattheinvestmentandjobsrecoveryneededtosustaingrowthischallengedbytheglobaluncertaintysurroundingsovereigndebt.

It’simportanttorecognizethattheperformanceofthesecountriesduringtheglobaldownturnandinitialstagesoftherecoverydoesnotnecessarilydestinethemtoacertainpathinthelongerterm.Characteristicsspecifictoanyonecountrycanimproveorworsenthelong-termoutlook.Forexample,abouncebackinkeyindustriessuchasoilwilldrivestrongerlonger-termgrowthinsomecountries,e.g.,Russia.Risinginflationpressureswilldampentheprospectsforgrowthinthelongerterminothercountries(e.g.,India)(Figure3):

● India’s inflation problem. India’seconomicstimuluseffortsalsohaveignitedasurgeinconsumerpriceinflationthatwilltakeatollongrowthprospects,atleastintheshortterm.Andgiventhecountry’speriodicspikesininflation,it’slikelythatinflationpressureswillbeapersistingproblemforthecountryandtakeatollonlong-termgrowthprospects.

● China’s inflation threat. TheinflationpressuresarenotassevereinChinaasIndia,

buttheynonethelessrepresentapotentialthreattotheChineseandglobaleconomy.Thecountryhastakenstepstoreininpricepressuresbyslowingeconomicgrowth,butamisstepcouldbecostly.TightentoomuchanddecliningdemandfromChinacouldpushothercountriesbackintorecession.Tightentoolittleortoolateandperhapsitexposesspeculativebubblesinrealestateorothermarketsthatburstandcreateanewshocktoglobalfinancialmarkets.Atthispoint,however,thethreatremainsaworst-casescenario.

● European price pressures. Europeancountriesfaceupwardanddownwardpricepressuresfromtheimpactofthesovereigndebtproblemandlaggingrecessionweakness.Intermsofupwardpressure,theweakeuro—andtheweakpoundsterlingintheUnitedKingdom—arecontributingtoinflationpressuresasimportedgoodsbecomemoreexpensive.TheresultisthatinflationshouldtrendhigheracrossmanyEuropeancountriesin2010,aswasprovenbytheUnitedKingdom’s4%consumerpriceinflationmeasureinthefirstquarterof2010.

Atthesametime,somecountriesalsomayfacedownwardpricepressuredrivenbyaletupindemand,aspullbacksingovernmentandbusinessinvestment(amidtheuncertainty)causeeconomicgrowthtostagnate.IncasessuchasSpain,forexample,theeffectsofweakorfallingdemandaregeneratingdeflationpressuresin2010—andoverwhelminganyinflationpressuresfromcurrencyeffects,atleasttemporarily.

Figure 3Consumer Price Inflation in Selected Markets

Source:NationalStatisticsOffices,EurostatandKantarRetail

China

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2007.1 2008.1 2009.1 2010.1

(Quarterly;PercentChangeYear-over-Year)

India

UnitedKingdom

Eurozonecountries

Forecast


RANKING THE LONG-TERM OPPORTUNITY

Theimpactofrecentperformanceandlonger-termforcesareevidentintheshiftsamongKantarRetail’srankingofthelong-termopportunityamong34keyretailmarketsaroundtheworld(Figure4).Amongthetopmarkets,Russia,India,andtheUnitedKingdomallslippedwhileBrazilandVietnamclimbed.

Chinacontinuestotoptherankings,whicharebasedonaweightedindexofthreemeasures:(1)forecastedinflation-adjustedgrowthratesofconsumerspendingonretailcategoriesthrough2015,(2)measuresofmarketrisksand(3)sizeof

theretailmarket.Theweightingisskewedinfavorofgrowth(55%)insteadofrisk(25%)withmarketsizegiventheleastweight(20%).Basedontherankings:

● Asia-Pacific skewed toward top of rankings. WithChinaagainleadingtheway,Asia-PacificcountriesrepresentfiveoftheTop10countries,onemorethanlastyearasVietnammovedupthelist.Indiaslippedfourplacesasaresultoftheexpectedtollfrominflationpressures.Australiaedgedhigherasoneofthefewmaturemarketstosustainrelativelyhealthygrowthamidtheglobaldownturn.

Figure 4Global Retail Opportunity Ranking1

1Therankingsarebasedonaweightedindexofthreemeasures:(1)forecastrealgrowthratesofspendingonretail-relatedcategoriesthrough2015,(2)measuresofmarketrisksand(3)sizeoftheretailmarket.Theweightingisskewedinfavorofgrowth(55%)insteadofrisk(25%)withmarketsizegiventheleastweight(20%)*Eurozonemember**Notincludedinlastyear'srankingsSource:KantarRetail

2010 Rank 2009 Rank Country Region Index1 1 China Asia-Pacific 852 3 UnitedStates NorthAmerica 623 2 Russia Central&EasternEurope 524 10 Brazil LatinAmerica 525 5 Malaysia Asia-Pacific 486 12 Vietnam Asia-Pacific 487 8 Australia Asia-Pacific 478 4 India Asia-Pacific 459 9 Canada NorthAmerica 4410 11 France* WesternEurope 4111 14 Sweden WesternEurope 4112 7 UnitedKingdom WesternEurope 4113 15 Argentina LatinAmerica 3914 22 SouthKorea Asia-Pacific 3815 24 Indonesia Asia-Pacific 3616 6 SouthAfrica Africa 3617 16 Japan Asia-Pacific 3518 13 Philippines Asia-Pacific 3419 26 Switzerland WesternEurope 3420 27 Germany* WesternEurope 3321 ** Austria* WesternEurope 3322 28 Taiwan Asia-Pacific 3123 19 Turkey Central&EasternEurope 3024 20 Thailand Asia-Pacific 3025 17 Spain* WesternEurope 3026 ** Ireland* WesternEurope 2927 23 Netherlands* WesternEurope 2928 29 Poland Central&EasternEurope 2929 21 Belgium* WesternEurope 2830 25 Mexico LatinAmerica 2731 30 Italy* WesternEurope 2032 ** Portugal* WesternEurope 1533 ** Greece* WesternEurope 1434 18 Nigeria Africa 8


● Eurozone and the EU countries. Byclimbinganotchtorank10thonthelist,Franceistheexceptionamongthe10eurozonecountriesincludedintheanalysis.Theothernineeurozonecountriesincludedintheanalysis(ofthe16totaleurozonecountries)fallinthebottomhalfoftherankings—includingthefourcountriesthathavebeenthefocusofthesovereigndebtproblem:Greece,Ireland,Portugal,andSpain.AmongtheotherEuropeanUnioncountriesonthelistthatdon’tusetheeuro,mostnotableistheUnitedKingdom’sfallfromtheTop10amidpoliticalandeconomicuncertainty,aswellasaweakeningcurrency.Meanwhile,SwedenandPolandbothedgedhigher,withPolandinparticularbenefitingfromsustainedspendinggrowthduringtheeconomicdownturn.

● Other European countries. WhileRussiaslippedonespotintherankings,thedropoffwasbiggerforTurkey.Thecountry,whichbackedawayfromIMFinterventioninearly2010,continuestofacestronginflationpressures.Meanwhile,Switzerlandmoveduptherankingsafterpostingmodestspendinggrowthduringthedownturnandbecominganincreasinglyattractivesafehavenforinvestorsamiditseuroneighbors.

● Canada and the United States stay strong. Russia’sweaknessduringtheeconomicdownturncontributedtothestepupintherankingsbytheUnitedStatesdespiteitsownweakness.Meanwhile,CanadahelditsgroundintherankingseventhoughitseconomyheldupbetterthantheU.S.economyduringthedownturn.

● Brazil leads Latin America. Brazil’sstrongeconomicperformanceduringthedownturncombinedwithweakerprospectsforIndiaandtheUnitedKingdomallowedthecountrytomoveuptherankings.ArgentinaalsosteppedhigherwhileMexicoslipped,partlyreflectingtheirrelativeperformanceduringthedownturn.

● African countries fall back. TheweaknessintheoilandcommoditymarketstookatollontheconsumermarketsofNigeriaandSouthAfricaduringtheeconomicdownturn,contributingtotheirslipintherankings.Nigeriaalsoisincreasinglyhurtbypolitical

unrestthatnegativelyaffectstheoilindustrythatiskeytoitseconomy.

MAPPING THE GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY

Amappingoftheopportunityindexintoitsthreedimensionsshowsthatfourcountries—Australia,Canada,SouthKorea,andtheUnitedStates—exhibitanattractivecombinationofhigher-than-averagegrowthprospectsandrelativelylowrisk.ThisputsthemintheOptimumOpportunityquadrant(Figure5).

CanadaandSouthKoreamovedintothequadrantastheirgrowthprospectsimprovedfromlastyear.Malaysiaslippedoutasitspotentialrisksedgedslightlyaboveaverage.Meanwhile,China,Vietnam,Russia,andBrazilleadagroupofhighgrowthbutriskymarkets.

Countriesaremappedfromlow-tohigh-growthalongthehorizontalaxis(usinginflation-adjusted2009–2015Fcompoundannualgrowthratesforconsumerspendingonretail-relatedcategories)andfromhigh-tolow-riskalongtheverticalaxis.(Editor’snote:Seethesidebarformorebackgroundabouttheriskmeasuresandotherdataissues).Thesizeofacountry’scircleonthemapisindicativeofitsrelativemarketsizein2015.Somekeyobservationsbasedontheopportunitymapinclude:

● Risky growers. Chinastandsoutfromothercountriesintermsofhighgrowthpotential,followedbyVietnam,Russia,andBrazil.Thegrowthprospectslocatethematthefarrightofthemap,buttheirhigher-than-averageriskalsoputstheminabottomquadrant.Amongthisgroupofriskygrowthmarkets,theriskiestmarketsarethePhilippines,Argentina,Vietnam,andRussia.Nigeriaisevenriskier,butitspoorperformanceduringtheeconomicdownturnpusheditintothelow-growth,high-riskquadrant.Althoughmanyofthesehigh-growthcountrieshavebeenaffectedlessbytheglobaleconomicdownturnthandevelopedcountries,theyremainvulnerablebecausetheylagdevelopedcountriesintermsoffactorssuchasinfrastructure,institutions,education,andtechnology.SoBrazil,China,India,andRussia—amongothers—arethemosttemptinggrowthopportunities,buttheyalsopresentsignificantrisksthatcanmakeitachallengetocapitalizeonthegrowthopportunities.


● United States remains leader. Thefive-yeargrowthrateforecastforU.S.inflation-adjustedconsumerspendingmovedmorefirmlyabovethemedianforthe34countries,whichkeepstheUnitedStatesintheoptimumopportunityquadrant.Butthislargelyreflectsthedimmerprospectsoftheweakermarkets.AstheU.S.recoveryremainsontrackin2010,itisexpectedtobouncebacktowardlong-termaveragegrowthrates—whichcombinedwiththerelativesafetyofthemarketcontinuetomakeitattractivecomparedwithothercountries.TheU.S.marketwillfaceelevatedthreatsfrominflationpressureastheFederalReserveunwindsitsintervention,butthosethreatsremainlessseverecomparedwiththosefacedbymostothercountries.

● Safe laggards. ThetolloftheglobaleconomicdownturnfollowedbythesovereigndebtcrisisisevidentintheshifttowardlowergrowthbyanumberofEuropeancountriesledbytheUnitedKingdom.ThisconcentratestheWesternEuropeancountriesinthelow-riskandlow-growthquadrantoftheglobalopportunitymap.Tosomeextent,thisalsoreflectsalessactivistresponsetotheeconomictroublesthantheUnitedStates,aswellasheightenedpressuretoreducegovernmentdeficitsasaresultofthedebtcrisis.

● PIIGS. TheacronymstandsforPortugal,Ireland,Italy,Greece,andSpain.Thesearethe

Explanatorynote:Therelativesizeofeachcountry'sretailmarketisrepresentedbythesizeofitsbubble.Themappinghorizontallyrepresentsthecountry'sforecastedgrowthalongacontinuumoflow-to-highgrowth.Themappingverticallyrepresentsthecountry'srisklevelalongacontinuumoflow-to-highrisk.Whereeachaxislinecrossesthecontinuumrepresentsaveragegrowthorrisk.Socountriesmappedontherighthalfrepresenthigher-than-averagegrowth.Andcountriesmappedonthetoprepresentlower-than-averagerisk.Thebestopportunitiesareinthetoprightquadrant,whichrepresentslow-risk/high-growthopportunities*EurozonemembersSource:KantarRetail

Figure 5Global Retail Opportunity Map

Argentina

AustraliaBelgium*

Brazil

Canada

China

France*

Germany*

India

Indonesia

Italy*

Japan

Malaysia

Mexico

Netherlands*

Nigeria

Philippines

Poland

Russia

SouthAfrica

SouthKorea

Spain*

SwedenSwitzerland

Thailand

Turkey

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

Vietnam

Greece*

Austria*

Ireland*Portugal*

-

WesternEuropeCentral&EasternEuropeNorthAmericaLatinAmericaAsia-PacificAfrica

Taiwan

LowRisk

HighRisk

LowGrowth HighGrowthInflation-AdjustedGrowth

Risk

OptimumOpportunityQuadrant


countriesmostassociatedwiththesovereigndebtcrisisbecauseoftheirhighgovernmentbudgetdeficits—withItalyaddedbecauseitpotentiallyfacessimilarproblems.Asaresult,it’snocoincidencethatthesecountriesstandapartfromtheotherEuropeancountriesontheopportunitymap.Theirhigherriskcombinedwithlowgrowthprospects,puttheminalooseclusteratorbelowtheriskmedianandfairlyclearlyapartfromtheotherEuropeancountries.

THE LARGEST RETAIL MARKETS

ThisyearChinashouldsurpassJapantobecomethesecondlargestretailmarketintheworld—andby2015,Chinashouldbethesecond-largestmarketbehindtheUnitedStatesbyawidemargin.AmongtheotherexpectedchangesintheTop10marketsby2015,RussiashouldgraduallyovertakeBrazilandItalytobecometheseventh-largestmarket(Figure6andAppendixFigureA1).Notethattheforecastsassumeconstantforeignexchangeratesamongthecountriesovertheforecastperiod.

● China overtakes Japan. Consumerspendingonretail-relatedcategoriesinChinawasestimatedtobeslightlybelowJapanin2009.SoChina’sstronggrowthin2010combinedwithJapan’sweakgrowthshouldallowChinatoeasilysurpassJapanthisyeartobecomethesecond-largestretailmarket.AndtheprojectedgrowthrateswouldmaketheChinesemarketabout$1trillionbiggerthanJapanby2015,makingitaboutthree-quartersbiggerthanJapan.

● Russia, Brazil, and Italy. Russia’sfalloffandBrazil’sstrengthin2009allowedBraziltosurpassRussiainsizein2009.However,theforecastforrenewedgrowthinRussiashouldputitbackontracktoovertakeBrazilandItalyby2015.Meanwhile,continuedstronggrowthinBrazilshouldallowittoovertakeItalyinsizeby2015.Italywouldsliptotheninth-largestmarketjustaheadofIndia.

● The United Kingdom and France. TheU.K.market’sbigfalloffin2009combinedwithFrance’smodestletupallowedFrancetoedgeaheadoftheUnitedKingdominmarketsizein2009.Butasgrowthre-emergesintheUnitedKingdomoverthecomingyears,itshouldovertakeFrancebetweennowand2015.

THE LARGEST MARKETS BY CATEGORY

By2015,ChinashouldreachanothermilestonebysurpassingtheUnitedStatesasthelargestmarketforfood-at-homeconsumerspending(i.e.,non-restaurantspendingonfood).Otherwise,theUnitedStatesisprojectedin2015toremainthelargestretailmarketacrossthreeotherbroadmarkets:apparel,homegoodsandfoodawayfromhome(i.e.,restaurantspending).Breakoutsofspendingbythesecategories(AppendixFiguresA2toA5)showthattherankingofmarketsizecanvarybyproductcategory—sometimessignificantly(Figure7).

● Apparel. RussiaandItalyareprojectedtohavehigherapparelmarketrankingsin2015—thirdandfourth,respectively—comparedwith

Figure 6Spending on Retail-Related Categories by Country, Excluding Automobiles

MarketSize($US Billions) Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2009-2015

2015Rank

2009Rank Country 2009 2015-FC Nominal Prices Inflation-Adjusted

Share in 2009 1

1 1 UnitedStates 3,441 4,551 4.8% 1.6% 3.1% 24%2 3 China 1,185 2,252 11.3% 3.0% 8.3% 8%3 2 Japan 1,267 1,279 0.2% -0.4% 0.5% 9%4 4 Germany 937 1,049 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 6%5 6 UnitedKingdom 743 951 4.2% 2.3% 1.9% 5%6 5 France 768 929 3.2% 1.5% 1.7% 5%7 9 Russia 433 908 13.1% 7.2% 5.9% 3%8 8 Brazil 475 805 9.2% 3.5% 5.6% 3%9 7 Italy 683 799 2.6% 2.1% 0.5% 5%10 10 India 397 739 10.9% 6.2% 4.7% 3%

TotalsTop10 10,330 14,262 5.5% 2.6% 2.9% 71%1Globalretailsalesestimatedat$14.6trillionin2009Sources:NationalStatisticsOffices,Eurostat,OECDandKantarRetail


About the Data and Approach

Market size. Consumerspendingdatareportedbyeachcountryareusedtodefinemarketsize.Retailsalesmeasuresarenotusedbecausetheycanvarysignificantlyintermsofwhatisincluded.Forexample,thefiguresforsomecountriesareinflatedbywhatothercountriesclassifyaswholesalesales.Andsomecountriesdonottrytoestimatesalesofsmallerretailersorinformalretailers.

Consumer spending data have a number of advantages. Theyareacomponentofeachcountry’snationalaccounts,whichtendtobemeasureduniformlyacrosscountries.Focusingonspendingongoods—andexcludingconsumerspendingonservices—isagoodproxyofretailsales.Autosalesdataareeasilyexcludedsoretailspendingcanbeparsedintothefourbroadspendingcategoriesincludedinthisreport.Theconsumerspendingdataalsoarebetteratincludingsalesininformalmarkets.

Market risk. ThemarketriskmeasureleveragesdatafromtheWorldEconomicForum’sGlobalCompetitivenessReport,2008–2009.Datathatmeasuredifferencesamongcountriesintermsoffivefactorsareusedandweightedinthefollowingway:50%infrastructureandinstitutions,30%highereducation/trainingandbusinesssophistication,and20%technologicalreadiness.

sizeoftheirtotalmarket(seventhandninth,respectively).Conversely,Japanisamuchweakerapparelmarket:Itisprojectedtoranksixthinapparelspendingwhilerankingthirdinoverallretailspendingin2015.

● Homegoods. JapanalsolagsintheprojectedrankofitshomegoodsmarketwhiletheUnitedKingdomisrelativelystronger.Japanisprojectedtorankfifthinthesizeofitshomegoodsmarketcomparedwiththethird-placerankingofitstotalmarket.TheU.K.homegoodsmarketisprojectedtorankthirdin2015,whichishigherthattherankingofitstotalmarket(fifth).

● Food at home. BeyondChinasurpassingtheUnitedStatesinthiscategoryby2015,alsonotableisIndia’srankingasthefourth-

largestmarketintermsofspendingforfoodathomeby2015.Obviously,therankingsinthiscategoryaredriveninpartbyChinaandIndia’sstatusasthetwomostpopulouscountriesintheworld.Meanwhile,GermanyandtheUnitedKingdomrankasmuchsmallermarketsinthiscategorycomparedwiththerankingoftheiroverallmarketsize.

● Food away from home. Russia(16th)andSpain(fifth)aremostnotablefortheirprojectedrankin2015intermsofspendingonfoodawayfromhome(i.e.,restaurantspending).Russia’ssizeinthiscategoryismuchsmallerthantherankingofitsoverallmarketsize(seventh).AndSpain’ssizeinthiscategoryismuchbiggerthantherankingofitsoverallmarketsize(11th).

Figure 7Comparison of Projected 2015 Ranking by Retail Spending Category

Source:KantarRetail

(Sorted by Ranking of Total Spending on Retail-Related Categories)

CountryTotal Retail

Spending Apparel Homegoods Food at homeFood away from home

UnitedStates 1 1 1 2 1China 2 2 2 1 2Japan 3 6 5 3 3Germany 4 5 4 8 7UnitedKingdom 5 7 3 11 4France 6 9 7 7 8Russia 7 3 6 5 16Brazil 8 10 8 6 10Italy 9 4 10 9 6India 10 8 13 4 13Spain 11 11 11 14 5Indonesia 12 20 15 12 9Turkey 13 13 12 13 15Mexico 14 19 14 10 23Canada 15 12 9 17 11


APPENDIX

Figure A1Spending on Retail-Related Categories by Country, Excluding Automobiles

(SortedbyExpected MarketSizein2015)

Market Size ($U.S. Billions)

Compound Annual Growth Rates, 2009-2015

Country Region 2009 2015FNominal

Sales PricesReal Sales

UnitedStates NorthAmerica $3,441 $4,551 4.8% 1.6% 3.1%China Asia-Pacific $1,185 $2,252 11.3% 3.0% 8.3%Japan Asia-Pacific $1,267 $1,279 0.2% -0.4% 0.5%Germany WesternEurope $937 $1,049 1.9% 1.9% 0.0%UnitedKingdom WesternEurope $743 $951 4.2% 2.3% 1.9%France WesternEurope $768 $929 3.2% 1.5% 1.7%Russia Central&EasternEurope $433 $908 13.1% 7.2% 5.9%

Brazil SouthAmerica $475 $805 9.2% 3.5% 5.6%Italy WesternEurope $683 $799 2.6% 2.1% 0.5%India Asia-Pacific $397 $739 10.9% 6.2% 4.7%

Spain WesternEurope $427 $529 3.6% 2.2% 1.4%Indonesia Asia-Pacific $267 $523 11.8% 8.0% 3.8%Turkey Central&EasternEurope $284 $490 9.5% 6.7% 2.8%

Mexico NorthAmerica $315 $488 7.6% 5.0% 2.6%Canada NorthAmerica $349 $448 4.2% 1.5% 2.8%Australia Asia-Pacific $237 $320 5.1% 1.4% 3.8%SouthKorea Asia-Pacific $202 $280 5.6% 3.0% 2.7%Argentina SouthAmerica $95 $220 15.1% 10.0% 5.0%Poland Central&EasternEurope $153 $215 5.8% 2.8% 3.0%

Netherlands WesternEurope $165 $193 2.6% 1.9% 0.7%

Thailand Asia-Pacific $116 $183 7.9% 5.2% 2.7%SouthAfrica Africa $94 $167 10.0% 6.4% 3.6%Greece WesternEurope $123 $158 4.2% 3.8% 0.5%Philippines Asia-Pacific $87 $154 10.0% 5.5% 4.5%Belgium WesternEurope $117 $141 3.2% 2.2% 1.0%Taiwan Asia-Pacific $116 $140 3.2% 1.7% 1.6%Switzerland WesternEurope $117 $132 2.1% 0.9% 1.1%Nigeria Africa $67 $121 10.4% 9.5% 1.0%Sweden WesternEurope $96 $120 3.8% 1.4% 2.3%Austria WesternEurope $94 $115 3.4% 1.8% 1.6%

Vietnam Asia-Pacific $44 $102 14.9% 8.5% 6.4%Malaysia Asia-Pacific $57 $91 8.1% 3.2% 5.0%Portugal WesternEurope $75 $88 2.7% 2.7% 0.0%Ireland WesternEurope $57 $72 4.0% 2.0% 2.0%

Sources:Nationalstatisticsoffices,Eurostat,OECD,andKantarRetail


Figure A2Clothing and Footwear Spending by Country







UnitedStates NorthAmerica $320 $400 3.8% 0.3% 3.5%China Asia-Pacific $172 $364 13.3% -1.0% 14.3%Russia Central&EasternEurope $66 $127 11.6% 6.4% 5.2%Italy WesternEurope $97 $110 2.1% 1.7% 0.5%Germany WesternEurope $96 $103 1.3% 0.6% 0.7%Japan Asia-Pacific $98 $93 -1.0% -1.0% 0.1%UnitedKingdom WesternEurope $77 $90 2.6% -1.1% 3.7%India Asia-Pacific $46 $87 11.1% 1.0% 10.1%France WesternEurope $67 $75 2.1% 0.7% 1.3%Brazil SouthAmerica $43 $75 9.6% 6.0% 3.7%

Spain WesternEurope $44 $53 3.1% 1.1% 2.0%Canada NorthAmerica $30 $36 3.0% -1.0% 3.9%Turkey Central&EasternEurope $23 $32 5.8% 4.1% 1.7%Argentina SouthAmerica $13 $31 16.1% 11.0% 5.1%SouthKorea Asia-Pacific $22 $29 4.6% 2.7% 1.9%Australia Asia-Pacific $18 $23 4.5% 0.5% 4.1%Greece WesternEurope $16 $20 4.1% 3.4% 0.7%Netherlands WesternEurope $18 $20 2.0% 0.0% 2.0%Mexico NorthAmerica $14 $16 2.0% 2.5% -0.5%Indonesia Asia-Pacific $11 $16 6.7% 4.8% 1.8%

SouthAfrica Africa $9 $15 9.5% 1.0% 8.5%Belgium WesternEurope $12 $14 3.2% 0.9% 2.2%Sweden WesternEurope $10 $13 4.9% 1.1% 3.8%Switzerland WesternEurope $11 $13 2.5% 0.5% 2.0%Austria WesternEurope $12 $13 1.2% 1.0% 0.2%Vietnam Asia-Pacific $4 $12 18.6% 6.4% 12.2%Taiwan Asia-Pacific $11 $12 2.7% 1.1% 1.6%Thailand Asia-Pacific $11 $12 2.5% 1.0% 1.5%Poland Central&EasternEurope $10 $12 2.6% -4.0% 6.6%Portugal WesternEurope $10 $10 1.2% 1.0% 0.2%

Ireland WesternEurope $4 $5 2.3% -2.5% 4.8%Malaysia Asia-Pacific $3 $4 7.8% -0.9% 8.7%Nigeria Africa $3 $4 7.8% 5.5% 2.3%Philippines Asia-Pacific $2 $4 7.2% 3.0% 4.2%


Figure A3Home Furnishings and Equipment Spending by Country







UnitedStates NorthAmerica $408 $508 3.8% -3.0% 6.8%China Asia-Pacific $100 $222 14.1% 1.4% 12.7%UnitedKingdom WesternEurope $175 $218 3.7% 2.4% 1.3%Germany WesternEurope $157 $170 1.3% 1.0% 0.3%Japan Asia-Pacific $172 $167 -0.5% -2.0% 1.4%Russia Central&EasternEurope $73 $163 14.5% 6.8% 7.7%France WesternEurope $120 $147 3.4% 1.3% 2.0%Brazil SouthAmerica $72 $133 10.7% 0.8% 9.9%Canada NorthAmerica $79 $104 4.8% 0.5% 4.4%Italy WesternEurope $70 $82 2.7% 1.6% 1.0%

Spain WesternEurope $51 $60 2.9% 1.5% 1.5%Turkey Central&EasternEurope $30 $56 10.7% 5.0% 5.6%India Asia-Pacific $22 $51 15.1% 6.2% 8.9%Mexico NorthAmerica $29 $44 7.1% 4.0% 3.1%Indonesia Asia-Pacific $21 $41 12.0% 8.5% 3.5%Australia Asia-Pacific $28 $37 4.7% 0.0% 4.7%Netherlands WesternEurope $27 $30 2.0% 1.0% 1.0%SouthKorea Asia-Pacific $22 $29 4.6% 2.5% 2.1%Argentina SouthAmerica $12 $28 15.6% 10.0% 5.5%Austria WesternEurope $17 $21 3.2% 1.0% 2.2%

Belgium WesternEurope $17 $21 3.4% 1.9% 1.5%Vietnam Asia-Pacific $8 $20 17.8% 5.3% 12.5%Poland Central&EasternEurope $14 $20 6.0% 2.0% 4.0%Switzerland WesternEurope $17 $19 2.1% 0.3% 1.8%Greece WesternEurope $14 $17 3.6% 2.8% 0.8%Thailand Asia-Pacific $11 $14 5.0% 0.5% 4.4%Sweden WesternEurope $10 $14 5.4% 0.7% 4.7%Taiwan Asia-Pacific $11 $13 3.9% 0.8% 3.1%SouthAfrica Africa $7 $12 10.2% 2.0% 8.1%Ireland WesternEurope $9 $12 4.8% -1.0% 5.8%Portugal WesternEurope $10 $11 1.5% 2.3% -0.7%

Nigeria Africa $3 $7 11.4% 8.4% 3.0%Malaysia Asia-Pacific $4 $5 6.7% 1.4% 5.3%Philippines Asia-Pacific $2 $4 13.5% 3.5% 9.9%


Figure A4Food-at-home Spending by Country(SortedbyExpected MarketSizein2015)





China Asia-Pacific $567 $1,033 10.5% 6.9% 3.6%UnitedStates NorthAmerica $675 $851 4.0% 2.5% 1.4%Japan Asia-Pacific $504 $499 -0.2% 0.1% -0.2%India Asia-Pacific $233 $414 10.1% 7.6% 2.4%Russia Central&EasternEurope $199 $381 11.4% 8.8% 2.6%Brazil SouthAmerica $192 $316 8.7% 5.6% 3.0%France WesternEurope $256 $307 3.1% 2.2% 0.9%Germany WesternEurope $268 $289 1.3% 2.0% -0.7%Italy WesternEurope $223 $260 2.6% 2.5% 0.1%Mexico NorthAmerica $158 $246 7.7% 5.2% 2.5%

UnitedKingdom WesternEurope $183 $236 4.3% 4.0% 0.3%Indonesia Asia-Pacific $120 $219 10.5% 8.6% 2.0%Turkey Central&EasternEurope $115 $196 9.2% 7.0% 2.2%Spain WesternEurope $140 $171 3.4% 3.4% 0.0%Australia Asia-Pacific $82 $110 5.0% 2.7% 2.4%Philippines Asia-Pacific $61 $107 9.9% 6.0% 3.9%Canada NorthAmerica $89 $107 3.1% 2.5% 0.6%Nigeria Africa $58 $105 10.4% 9.9% 0.4%Thailand Asia-Pacific $58 $99 9.5% 7.8% 1.7%Argentina SouthAmerica $42 $97 15.2% 9.0% 6.2%

Poland Central&EasternEurope $71 $97 5.3% 4.0% 1.3%SouthKorea Asia-Pacific $68 $95 5.6% 4.0% 1.6%SouthAfrica Africa $47 $83 10.0% 7.7% 2.3%Greece WesternEurope $51 $67 4.7% 4.0% 0.6%Netherlands WesternEurope $51 $62 3.3% 2.5% 0.7%Vietnam Asia-Pacific $24 $50 12.9% 11.0% 1.9%Belgium WesternEurope $39 $47 3.0% 2.9% 0.1%Malaysia Asia-Pacific $30 $47 7.7% 4.1% 3.6%Taiwan Asia-Pacific $35 $44 3.9% 1.7% 2.2%Switzerland WesternEurope $39 $44 1.8% 1.2% 0.7%

Sweden WesternEurope $32 $39 3.4% 2.1% 1.3%Austria WesternEurope $30 $36 3.3% 2.0% 1.3%Portugal WesternEurope $29 $34 2.8% 2.8% 0.0%Ireland WesternEurope $22 $26 3.5% 3.0% 0.5%



Figure A5Food-away-from-home Spending by Country


MarketSize($U.S.Billions)

Compound AnnualGrowthRates,2009-2015

Country Region 2009 2015FNominalSales Pr ices

RealSales

UnitedStates NorthAmerica $448 $605 5.1% 3.1% 2.0%China Asia-Pacific $131 $246 11.1% 6.9% 4.2%Japan Asia-Pacific $200 $203 0.2% -0.2% 0.5%UnitedKingdom WesternEurope $130 $167 4.3% 4.1% 0.3%Spain WesternEurope $124 $156 4.0% 3.9% 0.1%Italy WesternEurope $110 $133 3.3% 2.7% 0.6%Germany WesternEurope $88 $97 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%France WesternEurope $73 $91 3.6% 2.6% 1.0%Indonesia Asia-Pacific $40 $88 14.0% 6.4% 7.6%Brazil SouthAmerica $48 $82 9.3% 5.6% 3.6%

Canada NorthAmerica $45 $56 3.8% 2.2% 1.6%Australia Asia-Pacific $39 $53 5.2% 2.8% 2.4%India Asia-Pacific $21 $49 15.4% 6.7% 8.7%SouthKorea Asia-Pacific $33 $46 6.0% 3.5% 2.5%Turkey Central&EasternEurope $24 $43 10.2% 9.0% 1.1%Russia Central&EasternEurope $18 $39 13.3% 8.8% 4.5%Greece WesternEurope $24 $30 3.9% 3.9% 0.0%Argentina SouthAmerica $11 $27 16.2% 9.0% 7.2%Austria WesternEurope $17 $21 3.7% 2.4% 1.3%Switzerland WesternEurope $18 $20 2.0% 1.4% 0.6%

Thailand Asia-Pacific $11 $20 10.0% 3.9% 6.1%Netherlands WesternEurope $16 $20 3.4% 2.7% 0.7%Mexico NorthAmerica $14 $19 5.4% 4.6% 0.8%Malaysia Asia-Pacific $10 $18 9.2% 4.1% 5.1%Taiwan Asia-Pacific $13 $17 4.0% 1.8% 2.2%Ireland WesternEurope $13 $16 4.5% 3.3% 1.2%Belgium WesternEurope $12 $16 3.8% 2.9% 0.9%Portugal WesternEurope $12 $14 3.0% 3.3% -0.4%Philippines Asia-Pacific $6 $12 10.2% 6.0% 4.2%Sweden WesternEurope $9 $11 4.1% 2.4% 1.8%

Vietnam Asia-Pacific $5 $10 13.9% 11.0% 2.9%Poland Central&EasternEurope $6 $7 4.8% 4.5% 0.3%SouthAfrica Africa $2 $4 11.0% 6.0% 4.9%Nigeria Africa $1 $2 12.4% 11.9% 0.6%



Figure A6Population and Size of the Economy by Country, 2009

1PopulationdataareestimatesfromtheU.S.CensusBureau;GDPandGDPpercapitadataareestimatesfromtheInternationalMonetaryFund2PurchasingpowerparityadjuststheexchangerateamongcountriesinawaythatthepriceofcommongoodsisthesameineachcountrySources:InternationalMonetaryFund,U.S.CensusBureauInternationalDatabaseandKantarRetail

Population,2009GDPinBillionsofU.S.Dollars,2009

GDPpercapitainU.S.Dollars,2009(Adjusted forpurchasing powerparity2)

Rank Country Population Rank Country GDP Rank CountryPer capita

GDP1 China 1,323,591,583 1 UnitedStates $14,003 1 Qatar $92,1212 India 1,156,897,766 2 Japan $4,993 2 Luxembourg $78,1083 UnitedStates 307,212,123 3 China $4,833 3 Norway $52,7974 Indonesia 240,271,522 4 Germany $3,060 4 Brunei

Darussalam$49,711

5 Brazil 198,739,269 5 France $2,499 5 Singapore $45,6656 Pakistan 174,578,558 6 UnitedKingdom $2,007 6 UnitedStates $45,550

7 Bangladesh 156,050,883 7 Italy $1,988 7 HongKong $41,9028 Nigeria 149,229,090 8 Spain $1,397 8 Switzerland $41,8409 Russia 140,041,247 9 Brazil $1,269 9 Ireland $39,38310 Japan 127,078,679 10 Canada $1,229 10 Austria $38,744--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---11 Mexico 111,211,789 11 India $1,186 12 Netherlands $38,67512 Philippines 97,976,603 12 Russia $1,164 13 Canada $38,15413 Vietnam 88,576,758 13 Mexico $827 15 Australia $36,64215 Germany 82,329,758 14 Australia $755 17 Sweden $35,83617 Turkey 76,805,524 15 Netherlands $743 19 UnitedKingdom $35,286

20 Thailand 65,998,436 16 SouthKorea $727 21 Belgium $34,90521 France 64,420,073 17 Turkey $552 23 Germany $33,80422 UnitedKingdom 61,113,205 18 Indonesia $468 24 France $33,334

23 Italy 58,126,212 19 Switzerland $452 25 Japan $32,29825 SouthAfrica 49,052,489 20 Belgium $434 26 Greece $30,68926 SouthKorea 48,508,972 21 Poland $403 28 Spain $29,59631 Argentina 40,913,584 23 Austria $362 29 Italy $29,27432 Spain 40,525,002 24 Sweden $359 31 Taiwan $28,58534 Poland 38,482,919 27 Taiwan $334 33 SouthKorea $26,73036 Canada 33,487,208 28 Greece $325 41 Portugal $21,42546 Malaysia 25,715,819 29 Argentina $310 49 Poland $17,52448 Taiwan 22,974,347 32 Thailand $269 53 Russia $15,17655 Australia 21,262,641 33 SouthAfrica $243 57 Argentina $14,18859 Netherlands 16,715,999 35 Ireland $218 58 Mexico $14,01875 Greece 10,737,428 37 Malaysia $212 61 Malaysia $13,47776 Portugal 10,707,924 38 Portugal $209 64 Turkey $12,44678 Belgium 10,414,336 45 Nigeria $168 80 Brazil $10,15488 Sweden 9,059,651 48 Philippines $156 81 SouthAfrica $10,07092 Austria 8,210,281 58 Vietnam $89 89 Thailand $7,97594 Switzerland 7,604,467 99 China $6,379125 Ireland 4,203,200 123 Indonesia $4,071

127 Philippines $3,509129 India $2,873130 Vietnam $2,862142 Nigeria $2,156


Figure A7Population Growth Rates by Country

Sources:KantarRetailandU.S.CensusBureauInternationalDatabase

-0.5%-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.1%

-0.1%-0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.5%

0.6%

0.8%1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.2%

1.3%1.7%

1.9%

1.9%

-0.5%-0.1%

0.8%

0.0%-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%0.3%

0.5%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

1.0%

1.1%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

1.3%

1.2%

1.4%

1.5%

1.8%

2.0%

2.1%

CAGR2004-2009

CAGR2009-2015

Japan

Italy

Germany

Greece

Spain

Austria

Russia

Poland

Switzerland

Portugal

Belgium

South Korea

Sweden

Canada

Netherlands

Taiwan

France

Australia

China

South Africa

United Kingdom

Ireland

United States

Thailand

Argentina

Brazil

Turkey

Vietnam

Indonesia

Mexico

India

Malaysia

Philippines

Nigeria


Figure A8Age Distribution by Country, 2009

Sources:KantarRetailandU.S.CensusBureauInternationalDatabase

18.3%

18.4%

19.1%

19.2%

19.3%

20.5%

20.9%

21.6%

21.8%

22.1%

22.2%

22.7%

22.7%

22.8%

23.6%

23.6%

24.7%

25.3%

26.6%

27.2%

27.3%

27.4%

27.8%

28.6%

33.9%

35.0%

36.1%

36.2%

37.0%

38.8%

39.9%

41.1%

45.3%

52.2%

26.1%

26.0%

24.2%

28.0%

28.9%

25.7%

31.3%

31.3%

26.5%

28.9%

25.3%

25.7%

25.2%

26.6%

25.8%

31.8%

26.1%

28.7%

32.9%

33.8%

27.1%

30.3%

34.5%

32.4%

30.1%

33.3%

33.4%

35.0%

33.1%

32.5%

32.5%

30.8%

31.8%

29.7%

26.1%

29.3%

31.1%

27.8%

28.0%

30.2%

29.9%

28.3%

29.6%

26.0%

28.9%

31.3%

26.5%

29.7%

29.4%

30.1%

27.0%

27.1%

28.1%

27.1%

27.5%

25.2%

28.2%

26.4%

21.1%

22.2%

21.4%

21.1%

21.4%

19.8%

19.6%

20.3%

16.6%

13.2%

29.5%

26.3%

25.5%

25.0%

23.7%

23.6%

17.9%

18.8%

22.1%

23.0%

23.6%

20.4%

25.6%

20.9%

21.2%

14.5%

22.2%

18.9%

12.4%

11.9%

18.0%

17.0%

9.5%

12.6%

14.8%

9.6%

9.1%

7.7%

8.6%

9.0%

8.1%

7.9%

6.3%

4.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Japan

Italy

Germany

Greece

Spain

Austria

Russia

Poland

Switzerland

Portugal

Belgium

SouthKorea

Sweden

Canada

Netherlands

Taiwan

France

Australia

China

SouthAfrica

UnitedKingdom

Ireland

UnitedStates

Thailand

Argentina

Brazil

Turkey

Vietnam

Indonesia

Mexico

India

Malaysia

Philippines

Nigeria

0-19 20-39 40-59 60+


Source:WorldBankandKantarRetail

35.7%

36.6%

36.9%

37.5%

37.8%

38.7%

39.9%

40.2%

41.3%

41.3%

41.4%

41.5%

42.0%

42.0%

42.0%

42.4%

44.0%

45.3%

45.4%

45.5%

45.8%

45.9%

47.1%

47.8%

47.8%

48.6%

49.0%

50.2%

50.4%

50.7%

53.0%

56.4%

58.7%

62.2%

22.0%

22.7%

23.1%

23.1%

22.9%

23.3%

23.0%

22.8%

23.6%

22.6%

20.8%

23.0%

22.5%

22.8%

21.9%

22.4%

22.5%

20.4%

21.6%

21.3%

22.4%

21.9%

22.0%

22.0%

22.0%

21.9%

21.0%

20.7%

21.2%

20.7%

21.7%

19.2%

19.6%

18.0%

17.6%

17.6%

17.8%

18.0%

17.4%

17.2%

17.2%

17.2%

17.2%

16.3%

16.3%

16.8%

16.4%

16.8%

16.3%

16.2%

16.0%

14.9%

15.2%

14.9%

15.7%

15.5%

15.2%

14.7%

14.7%

14.7%

14.2%

13.9%

13.7%

13.9%

13.4%

12.4%

11.8%

10.0%

14.2%

14.0%

13.7%

13.6%

13.3%

13.2%

12.7%

12.6%

12.0%

12.2%

13.0%

11.9%

12.1%

12.0%

12.3%

11.7%

11.4%

11.3%

10.8%

11.0%

10.7%

11.0%

10.3%

9.8%

9.8%

9.7%

9.8%

9.6%

9.1%

9.4%

8.2%

8.1%

6.9%

6.3%

10.6%

9.1%

8.5%

7.9%

8.6%

7.6%

7.2%

7.2%

5.9%

7.6%

8.5%

6.7%

7.0%

6.5%

7.4%

7.3%

6.1%

8.1%

7.1%

7.4%

5.4%

5.8%

5.4%

5.7%

5.7%

5.1%

6.1%

5.6%

5.6%

5.3%

3.6%

3.8%

3.0%

3.5%

Japan(1993)

Sweden(2000)

Germany(2000)

SouthKorea(1998)

Austria(2000)

Netherlands(1999)

Canada(2000)

France(1995)

Australia(1994)

Switzerland(2000)

Belgium(2000)

Greece(2000)

Spain(2000)

Italy(2000)

Ireland(2000)

Poland(2005)

UnitedKingdom (1999)

India(2004-05)

Vietnam(2006)

Indonesia(2007)

UnitedStates (2000)

Portugal(1997)

Turkey(2006)

China(2005)

Malaysia(2005)

Nigeria(2004)

Thailand(2004)

Russia(2007)

Philippines (2006)

HongKong (1996)

Argentina(2006)

Mexico(2008)

Brazil(2007)

SouthAfrica(2000)

HighestQuintile FourthQuintile ThirdQuintile SecondQuintile LowestQuintile

Figure A9Income Distribution by Country

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