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Page 1: KAHNEMAN Pensar rápido, pensar despacio

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+'/,C'$ 29,$,-S9 R>, <-5"'-3 3 ;,€3 ".9Q- ,E,@@#'-,$ /#:,9,-5,$0 3. R>, E. '2@#A- /, E'$ KC#EE'-,$ $,D>9'$ ".9^. :,E#L . <-5"'-3 3 /,$D9.@#./. . ;,€3B f.3 R>, $,Z.E.9 5.C&#g- @AC' E.'2@#A- /,E /#-,9' $,D>9' /#c,9, /, E. 2,'9 /, E.$ '2@#'-,$ /,E H>,D') +.9. <-5"'-3 ,$ E. /#:,9,-@#.,-59, />2E#@.9 $> :'95>-. 3 -' D.-.9 -./.j 2.9. ;,€3 ,$ E. /#:,9,-@#. ,-59, 2,9/,9 E. C#5./ /, $>:'95>-. 3 2,9/,9 59,$ @>.95'$ /, E. C#$C.B O$ C>3 29'&.&E, R>, ;,€3 @'-$#/,9, $>$ 2'$#&#E#/./,$@'C' ".@,- '59'$ @>.-/' $, T,- .-5, '2@#'-,$ C>3 C.E.$B !.E @'C' ", 29,$,-5./' .C&'$ @.$'$0

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NB 4. #-5>#@#A- /, ;,9-'>EE# ,9. @'99,@5.0 3 E'$ ,@'-'C#$5.$ 5'/.T^. >$.- ,E E'D.9#5C' /, E.$ 9,-5.$,- C>@"'$ @'-5,a5'$B =>.-/' <-D>$ \,.5'-0 2'9 ,H,C2E'0 @'C2.9A ,E T.E'9 C,/#' /, E.$.S$:.@@#A- /, E'$ ".&#5.-5,$ /, C>@"'$ 2.^$,$ @'- ,E +?; /, /#@"'$ 2.^$,$0 >SE#LA ,E E'D.9#5C' /,E+?; @'C' C,/#/. /, $> 9,-5.B m 9,$>E5A R>, E. 9,E.@#A- ,$ C>3 ,$59,@".) 4'$ ".&#5.-5,$ @'- +?;,E,T./' ,$5Q- C>@"' CQ$ $.S$:,@"'$ @'- E. @.E#/./ /, $>$ T#/.$0 R>, E'$ ".&#5.-5,$ /, 2.^$,$ CQ$2'&9,$0 3 >-. />2E#@.@#A- /, E. 9,-5. $, .@'C2.Z. /, .29'a#C./.C,-5, ,E C#$C' #-@9,C,-5' /,E. $.S$:.@@#A- 5.-5' ,- 2.^$,$ 9#@'$ @'C' ,- 2.^$,$ 2'&9,$B

PB W#@"'E.$ ;,9-'>EE#0 29#C' /, \.-#,E ;,9-'>EE#0 2E.-5,A >-. @>,$SA- R>, 2>,/, 2.9.:9.$,.9$,

@'C' $#D>,) _l, -'$ #-T#5. . >- H>,D' ,- ,E R>, ".3 R>, E.-L.9 >-. C'-,/. 9,2,S/.C,-5,B1,@#&#C'$ K /AE.9,$ $# $.E, @.9.0 3 ,E 29,C#' $, /'&E. @'- @./. $>@,$#T' E.-L.C#,-5' ,- ,E R>, $.E,@.9.B OE H>,D' 5,9C#-. @>.-/' E. C'-,/. C>,$59. 2'9 29#C,9. T,L @9>LB b=>Q-5' 2.D.9 .C'$ 2'9E. '2'95>-#/./ /, H>D.9 ,$5, H>,D'd`B 4. D,-5, -' @9,, R>, ,$5, H>,D' C,9,L@. CQ$ /, >-'$ 2'@'$/AE.9,$0 .>-R>, $> T.E'9 ,$2,9./' ,$ #-c-#5'j @'C' ,E 29,C#' $#D>, @9,@#,-/'0 ,E T.E'9 ,$2,9./',$ /, G /AE.9 2'9 @./. E.-L.C#,-5'0 ".$5. ,E #-c-#5'B l#- ,C&.9D'0 E. >SE#/./ /, E'$ 29,C#'$ @9,@,C>@"' CQ$ E,-5.C,-5,0 E' @>.E ,a2E#@. R>, ,E H>,D' -' 9,$>E5, .59.@ST'B

IB f.3 '59'$ :.@5'9,$ R>, ".- @'-59#&>#/' . E. E'-D,T#/./ /, E. 5,'9 . /, ;,9-'>EE#B X-' /, ,EE'$,$ R>, ,$ -.5>9.E :'9C>E.9 E.$ ,E,@@#'-,$ ,-59, H>,D'$ ,- 5g9C#-'$ /, D.-.-@#.$0 ' /, D.-.-@#.$ 32g9/#/.$B +'@'$ 2#,-$.- ,- ,E,@@#'-,$ ,- E.$ R>, 5'/.$ E.$ '2@#'-,$ $'- C.E.$0 .>-R>, -' ".@,

:.E5. /,@#9 R>, -'$'59'$ -' ",C'$ $#/' E'$ 29#C,9'$ ,- '&$,9T.9 E. &[$R>,/. /,E 9#,$D'B s59'",@"' R>, :.T'9,@, . E. 5,'9^. /, ;,9-'>EE# ,$ R>, 2,-$.9 ,- ,$5./'$ c-.E,$ /, E. 9#R>,L. , #D-'9.9,E 2.$./' ,$ @'- :9,@>,-@#. .ED' C>3 9.L'-.&E,B !9./#@#'-.EC,-5,0 E'$ ,@'-'C#$5.$ $, ".-'@>2./' /, E.$ ,E,@@#'-,$ 9.@#'-.E,$0 3 ,E C'/,E' /, ;,9-'>EE# $, ./,@>.&. . $>$ 29'2A$#5'$B

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;wm 4",&A% +" 0%$ )"&$)".F_%$

GB l5.-E,3 lB l5,T,-$0 _!' f'-'9 V,@"-,9 .-/ 1,2,.E f#$ 4.8`0 l@#,-@, GNN *GJFG60 22B YM•YFBl5,T,-$0 +$3@"'2"3$#@$B

KB <E ,$@9#&#9 ,$5. :9.$, C, .@'9/g /, R>, E. D9Qc@. /, E. :>-@#A- /,E T.E'9 3. $, ". >$./' @'C'

>- ,C&E,C.B !'/'$ E'$ D.-./'9,$ /,E 29,C#' W'&,E 9,@#&,- >- @,9Sc@./' 2,9$'-.E @'- >- /#&>H'2,9$'-.E#L./'0 29,$>C#&E,C,-5, ,E,D#/' 2'9 ,E @'C#5gB ]# #E>$59.@#A- :>, >-. :'9C. ,$SE#L./. /,E. cD>9. GMB

NB 4. 9.S' /, .T,9$#A- . E. 2g9/#/. $, ,-@>,-59. . C,->/' ,- >- 9.-D' /, G0I . K0I) W.5".-W'T,C$(3 3 \.-#,E h."-,C.-0 _!", ;'>-/.9#,$ ': 4'$$ <T,9$#'-`0 o'>9-.E ': ].9(,S-D 1,$,.9@"PK *KMMI60 22B GGJ•GKYB

PB +,5,9 l'('E•f,$$-,9 ,5 .EB0 _!"#-(#-D 4#(, . !9./,9 l,E,@ST,E3 1,/>@,$ ?-/#T#/>.E$ 4'$$<T,9$#'-`0 +W<l GMF *KMMJ60 22B IBMNI•IBMPMB

IB \>9.-5, T.9#'$ .Z'$ @'-$,@>ST'$ /# >-. @'-:,9,-@#. ,- E. @E.$, /, #-59'/>@@#A- . E.$ c-.-L.$/, C# @'E,D. ;>95'- ].E(#,EB \>9.-5, ,$'$ .Z'$ ".&Eg /, E. #-T,9'$#C#E#5>/ /, E. 5,'9^. /,;,9-'>EE#B m E. 29#C,9. T,L R>, C,-@#'-g E. 29>,&. /, 1.&#-0 -'5g >- @.C&#' ,- E. .@S5>/ /, C#

@'E,D.B O$5.&. /#$2>,$5' . 5'C.9$, E. @'-@E>$#A- C>@"' CQ$ ,- $,9#' R>, ,- ,E 2.$./'B 4'$.9D>C,-5'$ C.5,CQS@'$ S,-,- .ED' /, /,c-#ST' R>, E'$ ".@, CQ$ @'-T#-@,-5,$ R>, ,E $,-S/'@'C[-B 4'$ ,@'-'C#$5.$ $'- 2.9S@>E.9C,-5, $,-$#&E,$ . ,$5. T,-5.H.B

FB 4. #-5>#@#A- /, E. 29>,&. 2>,/, #E>$59.9$, @'- >- ,H,C2E'B l>2'-D.C'$ R>, >- #-/#T#/>'2'$,, >- 2.59#C'-#' 7 3 9,@".L. >- H>,D' @'- #/g-S@.$ 2'$#&#E#/./,$ /, D.-.9 GG /AE.9,$ '2,9/,9 GMB l# E. :>-@#A- /, >SE#/./ /,E 2.59#C'-#' ,$ @[email protected]. *".@#. .&.H'60 E. 29,:,9,-@#. #C2E#@.R>, ,E T.E'9 /, G /AE.9 ". /,@9,@#/' ,- CQ$ /,E J 2'9 @#,-5' ,- >- #-5,9T.E' /, KG /AE.9,$B O$5, ,$>- /,$@,-$' ,a59.'9/#-.9#.C,-5, &9>$@'0 3 ,E ,:,@5' .>C,-5. /, :'9C. @'-$5.-5, @'-:'9C, ,E

 H>,D' $, 5'9-. CQ$ ,a59,C./'BUB ].€",8 1.&#-0 _1#$( <T,9$#'- .-/ Oa2,@5,/•XSE#53 !",'93) < =.E#&9.S'- !",'9,C`0

O@'-'C,59#@. FY *KMMM60 22B GBKYG•GBKJKB ].€",8 1.&#- 3 1#@".9/ fB !".E,90 _<-'C.E#,$) 1#$(<T,9$#'-`0 o'>9-.E ': O@'-'C#@ +,9$2,@ST,$ GI *KMMG60 22B KGJ•KNKBYB e.9#'$ 5,A9#@'$ ".- 29'2>,$5' T,9$#'-,$ /, 5,'9^.$ /,E .99,2,-SC#,-5' @'-$59>#/.$ $'&9, E.

#/,. /, R>, E'$ #-/#T#/>'$ $'- @.2.@,$ /, .-S@#2.9 E. C.-,9. ,- R>, $>$ ,a2,9#,-@#.$ :>5>9.$ $,T,9Q- .:,@5./.$ 2'9 E.$ '2@#'-,$ R>, -' C.5,9#.E#L.9'- 3}' 2'9 E.$ ,E,@@#'-,$ R>, -' "#@#,9'-)\.T#/ OB ;,EE0 _1,D9,5 #- \,@#$#'- ].(#-D X-/,9 X-@,95.#-53`0 s2,9.S'-$ 1,$,.9@" NM *GJYK60 22BJFG•JYGB t9.".C 4''C,$ 3 1'&,95 l>D/,-0 _1,D9,5 !",'93) <- <E5,9-.ST, 5' 1.S'-.E ="'#@,X-/,9 X-@,95.#-53`0 O@'-'C#@ o'>9-.E JK *GJYK60 22B YMI•YKIB ;.9&.9. <B ],EE,9$0 _="'#@, .-/5", 1,E.ST, +E,.$>9, ': ='-$,R>,-@,$`0 +$3@"'E'D#@.E ;>EE,S- GKF *KMMM60 22B JGM•JKPB ;.9&.9.<B ],EE,9$0 <E.- l@"8.95L , ?E.-. 1#5'T0 _OC'S'-•;.$,/ ="'#@,`0 o'>9-.E ': Oa2,9#C,-5.E+$3@"'E'D3) t,-,9.E GKY *GJJJ60 22B NNK•NPIB 4.$ ,E,@@#'-,$ /, E'$ #-/#T#/>'$ R>, /,@#/,- ,-59,

 H>,D'$ /,2,-/,- /, $# ,$2,9.- @'-'@,9 ,E 9,$>E5./' /,E H>,D' R>, -' ".- ,E,D#/'B ?E.-. 1#5'T0_+9'&.&#E#53 ': 1,D9,5) <-S@#2.S'- ': X-@,95.#-53 1,$'E>S'- #- ="'#@,`0 s9D.-#L.S'-.E ;,".T#'9.-/ f>C.- \,@#$#'- +9'@,$$,$ FF *GJFF60 22B KKY•KNFB

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GB OE .-QE#$#$ 5,A9#@' R>, .$>C, E. .T,9$#A- . E. 2g9/#/. 29,/#@, >- 29'->-@#./' T#9.H, ,- E. @>9T.

/, #-/#:,9,-@#. ,- ,E 2>-5' /, 9,:,9,-@#.) <C'$ !T,9$(3 3 \.-#,E h."-,C.-0 _4'$$ <T,9$#'- #-1#$(E,$$ ="'#@,) < 1,:,9,-@,•\,2,-/,-5 ]'/,E`0 r>.95,9E3 o'>9-.E ': O@'-'C#@$ GMF *GJJG60 22BGBMNJ•GBMFGB o.@( h-,5$@" ". '&$,9T./' ,$5'$ T#9.H,$ ,- >- ,$5>/#' ,a2,9#C,-5.E) _+9,:,9,-@,$.-/ W'-9,T,9$#&#E#53 ': ?-/#‹,9,-@, =>9T,$`0 o'>9-.E ': O@'-'C#@ ;,".T#'9 s9D.-#L.S'- GU*GJJK60 22B GNG•GNJB

KB <E.- ;B h9>,D,9 3 <-/9,.$ ]>,EE,90 _o'& l,.9@" .-/ o'& V#-/#-D #- . +,9#'/ ': ].$$X-,C2E'3C,-5) OT#/,-@, :9'C f#D"•V9,R>,-@3 4'-D#5>/#-.E \.5.`0 /'@>C,-5' /, 59.&.H'0+9#-@,5'- X-#T,9$#53 ?-/>$59#.E 1,E.S'-$ l,@S'-0 ,-,9' /, KMGGB

NB !g@-#@.C,-5,0 E. 5,'9^. 2,9C#5, R>, ,E 29,@#' /, @'C29. $,. E#D,9.C,-5, CQ$ &.H' R>, ,E /,T,-5. ,- T#95>/ /, E' R>, E'$ ,@'-'C#$5.$ /,-'C#-.- _,:,@5' /, #-D9,$'`) OE @'C29./'9 3 ,ET,-/,/'9 -' $'- #D>.E,$ ,- 2'$,$#'-,$0 2>,$ ,E T,-/,/'9 S,-, >-. &'5,EE. ,a59.B +,9' ,- ,$5,

@.$' ,E ,:,@5' ,$ /,$/,Z.&E,0 2>,$ IM /AE.9,$ ,$ >-. :9.@@#A- C#-[$@>E. /,E 2.59#C'-#' /,E29':,$'9B +,9' E. 5,'9 . 29,/#@, R>, ,$5, ,:,@5' /, #-D9,$' -' @.C&#.9Q $> /#$2'$#@#A- . -' 2.D.9-# >- @,-5.T' CQ$B

PB O- >- ,$5>/#' R>, 9,.E#LA /,$2>g$ /, ".&,9 EE,T./' . $> 2./9, . E. l>2,9 ;'8E0 ,E ,@'-'C#$5.<E.- h9>,D,9 @>,-5. E' $#D>#,-5,)

_+9,D>-5.C'$ . >-'$ .c@#'-./'$ R>, ".&^.- D.-./' ,- >-. E'5,9^. ,E /,9,@"' . @'C29.9 >- 2.9/, ,-59./.$ 2'9 NKI ' PMM /AE.9,$ @./. >-. $#0 /, ".&,9 2,9/#/' ,- ,$. E'5,9 .0 ".&9^.- ,$5./'/#$2>,$5'$ . 2.D.9 NBMMM /AE.9,$ 2'9 ,-59./.0 3 5.C&#g- $# ".&9 .- T,-/#/' $>$ ,-59./.$ $# .ED>#,-E,$ ">&#,9. ':9,@#/' NBMMM /AE.9,$ 2'9 @./. >-.B OE JP 2'9 @#,-5' /#H,9'- R>, -' E.$ ".&9^.-@'C29./' 2'9 NBMMM /AE.9,$0 3 ,E JK 2'9 @#,-5' R>, -' E.$ ".&9^.- T,-/#/' . ,$, 29,@#'`B h9>,D,9

@'-@E>3, R>, E. _9.@#'-.E#/./ ,$@.$,.&. ,- E. l>2,9 ;'8E`B <E.- ;B h9>,D,90 _l>22E3 .-/ \,C.-/)<- O@'-'C#$5 t',$ 5' 5", l>2,9 ;'8E`0 ]#E(,- ?-$S5>5, 1,T#,8) < o'>9-.E ': O@'-'C#@ +'E#@3 N*KMMG60 22B KK•KJB

IB O- 9#D'90 E. .T,9$#A- . E. 2g9/#/. $, 9,c,9, .E 2E.@,9 3 . E. 2,-. .-S@#2./'$0 E'$ @>.E,$/,5,9C#-.- E.$ ,E,@@#'-,$B O$5.$ .-S@#2.@#'-,$ 2>,/,- ,$5.9 ,R>#T'@./.$ ,- .ED>-'$ @.$'$B\,&'9." <B h,9C,9 ,5 .EB0 _4'$$ <T,9$#'- ?$ .- <‹,@ST, V'9,@.$S-D O99'9`0 +$3@"'E'D#@.E l@#,-@,GU *KMMF60 22B FPJ•FINB

FB W'T,C$(3 3 h."-,C.-0 _!", ;'>-/.9#,$ ': 4'$$ <T,9$#'-`BUB ?C.D#-,C'$ R>, 5'/'$ E'$ 2.9S@#2.-5,$ :'9C.- >-. E^-,.0 3 R>, $> 2>,$5' ,- ,EE. /,2,-/, /,E

T.E'9 /, @.-H, R>, $, E,$ ". .$#D-./'B m R>, E>,D' $, /#$59#&>3,- .E .L.9 T.E,$ ,-59, E. C#5./ /, E'$#-/#T#/>'$ /, E. E^-,.B 4.$ 2,9$'-.$ /, E. C#5./ /,E.-5,9. /, E. E^-,. -' 5,-/9Q- T.E,$0 3 E.$ /, E.

C#5./ 59.$,9. 5,-/9Q- >-'B \, ,$5.$ 2,9$'-.$ *E. C#5./ /,E 5'5.E6 $, ,$2,9. R>, $, C>,T.- 2.9.@'C,9@#.9 >-.$ @'- '59.$0 3 .E c-.E @./. >-. /, E. 29#C,9. C#5./ /, E. @'E. 5,-/9Q >- T.E,0 3-#-D>-' E.$ /, E. '59. C#5./B

YB ;9#.- h->5$'- ,5 .EB0 _W,>9.E <-5,@,/,-5$ ': 5", O-/'8C,-5 O‹,@5`0 W,>9'- IY *KMMY60 22BYGP•YKKB ;9#.- h->5$'- 3 l5,2".-#, ]B t9,,90 _<-S@#2.5'93 <‹,@5) W,>9.E ='99,E.5,$ .-/='-$,R>,-@,$ :'9 ="'#@,`0 +"#E'$'2"#@.E !9.-$.@S'-$ ': 5", 1'3.E l'@#,53 ; NFN *KMMY60 22BNBUUG•NBUYFB

JB X-. 9,T#$#A- /,E 29,@#' /,E 9#,$D' &.$./. ,- _/.5'$ #-5,9-.@#'-.E,$ /, GF 2.^$,$ /#:,9,-5,$'&5,-#/'$ />9.-5, CQ$ /, @#,- .Z'$` .99'HA >-. ,$SC.@#A- /, K0N0 _,- -'5.&E, @'-@'9/.-@#. @'-,$SC.@#'-,$ '&5,-#/.$ @'- E. C>3 /#:,9,-5, C,5'/'E'D^. /, E'$ ,a2,9#C,-5'$ /, E.&'9.5'9#'$'&9, /,@#$#'-,$ #-/#T#/>.E,$`) ]'$", 4,T30 _4'$$ <T,9$#'- .-/ 5", +9#@, ': 1#$(`0 r>.-S5.ST,V#-.-@, GM *KMGM60 22B GBMMJ•GBMKKB

GMB ]#E,$ sB ;#/8,E0 ;9>@, B 7.-D 3 oB \'>DE.$ Š'-.0 _<- <-.E3$#$ ': <$3CC,59#@ \,C.-/1,$2'-$, 5' +9#@, =".-D,$) !", =.$, ': 4'@.E !,E,2"'-, =.EE$`0 o'>9-.E ': 1,D>E.5'93 O@'-'C#@$ Y

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*GJJI60 22B KYI•KJYB ;9>@, tB lB f.9/#,0 O9#@ oB o'"-$'- 3 +,5,9 lB V./,90 _]'/,E#-D 4'$$ <T,9$#'-.-/ 1,:,9,-@, \,2,-/,-@, O‹,@5$ '- ;9.-/ ="'#@,`0 ].9(,S-D l@#,-@, GK *GJJN60 22B NUY•NJPB

GGB ='E#- =.C,9,90 _!"9,, =",,9$k+$3@"'E'D#@.E0 !",'9,[email protected] OC2#9#@.Ek:'9 4'$$ <T,9$#'-`0o'>9-.E ': ].9(,S-D 1,$,.9@" PK *KMMI60 22B GKJ•GNNB ='E#- VB =.C,9,90 _+9'$2,@5 !",'93 #- 5",7#E/) OT#/,-@, :9'C 5", V#,E/`0 ,- \.-#,E h."-,C.- 3 <C'$ !T,9$(30 ,/$B0 ="'#@,$0 e.E>,$0 .-/V9.C,$0 1>$$,EE l.D, V'>-/.S'-0 W>,T. m'9(0 KMMM0 22B KYY•NMMB

GKB \.T#/ t,-,$'T, 3 ="9#$5'2",9 ].3,90 _4'$$ <T,9$#'- .-/ l,EE,9 ;,".T#'9) OT#/,-@, :9'C 5",f'>$#-D ].9(,5`0 r>.95,9E3 o'>9-.E ': O@'-'C#@$ GGF *KMMG60 22B GBKNN•GBKFMB

GNB o'"- <B 4#$50 _\',$ ].9(,5 Oa2,9#,-@, OE#C#-.5, ].9(,5 <-'C.E#,$d`0 r>.95,9E3 o'>9-.E ':O@'-'C#@$ GGY *KMMN60 22B PU•UGB

GPB o.@( 4B h-,5$@"0 _!", O-/'8C,-5 O‹,@5 .-/ OT#/,-@, ': W'-9,T,9$#&E, ?-/#‹,9,-@, =>9T,$`0<C,9#@.- O@'-'C#@ 1,T#,8 UJ *GJYJ60 22B GBKUU•GBKYPB

GIB =".9E,$ 1B +E'€ 3 h.5"93- Š,#E,90 _!", 7#EE#-D-,$$ 5' +.3•7#EE#-D-,$$ 5' <@@,25 t.20 5",†O-/'8C,-5 O‹,@5‡0 l>&H,@5 ]#$@'-@,2S'-$0 .-/ Oa2,9#C,-5.E +9'@,/>9,$ :'9 OE#@#S-De.E>.S'-$`0 <C,9#@.- O@'-'C#@ 1,T#,8 JI *KMMI60 22B INM•IPIB =".9E,$ +E'€0 >- /,$5.@./',@'-'C#$5. ,a2,9#C,-5.E0 ". $#/' C>3 ,$@g2S@' @'- ,E ,:,@5' /, /'5.@#A-0 3 ". 59.5./' /,/,C'$59.9 R>, ,$5, -' ,$ >- _.$2,@5' :>-/.C,-5.E /, E. 29,:,9,-@#. ">C.-.`0 $#-' >- 9,$>E5./'

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