Kathleen DunmoreThree Dragons

13 October 2010

Modelling demand for older persons accommodation

Themes Who moves to retirement housing?

What is potential demand across the range of older households

Are we supplying the right products

Is there an affordability problem – and if so for whom

Review of evidence

Questions that need answers

Who moves into retirement housing

40% of movers into private newbuild retirement housing are couples and 60% are single people.

(London 84% and 16%)

75% of movers into social retirement housing (new and existing) are single people.

Often “distressed moves” Movers are getting older

38% over 80, some over 100

Source RHG

Where do they come from• Movers into private retirement

housing come from owner occupation

• 15% of movers into social rented retirement housing are owner-occupiers

• For every 10 owner-occupiers who move into private retirement housing between 4 and 6 move into social rented retirement housing.

• 23% of movers into social rented retirement housing are already in specialist accommodation - CHURN

Source CORE England

previous tenure movers to social rented retirement housing

O/O15%

social rent20%

private rent12%

Housing for older people23%

Other30%

What types of properties do they vacate• In London, movers to

new private retirement housing– 66%+ from larger

family house– 34% from a 1 or 2

bed property

• Most poorer owner occupiers cannot afford to buy outright in Inner London – but they can move to outer suburbs or beyond

• Also look to social rented and shared ownership provision

Source RHG

Building a model

• POPPI - Population x age group, household type,

health and frailty

• CORE - Turnover of social rented older persons housing and characteristics of movers

• EAC - Stock of retirement housing by tenure

• NHBC - New supply of retirement housing

Secondary data

Nos. and trends

All available at LA, County and Regional level

Building a model

• Taken from ORS SHMA data• 27K sample• 13.5K aged 50+

• Over 1,500 in each 5-year band aged up to 75

• 1.4K aged 75-79; 1.1K aged 80-84; 0.8K aged 85+

• Not necessarily representative – but provides good indicative evidence base

• Housing circumstances• Housing history and expectations• Housing preferences

Primary Data

Consumer preferences

Housing options considered by age of household

30-50% of 50-74 yr olds would consider a bungalow

10-20% of older households would consider retirement housing

Willingness to move diminishes with age – though need to do so may increase

Source ORS SHMA data

Drivers to Moving Home

• Children leave family home• Home now under-occupied• Disposable income possibly

increased• Continued ties to area (work, etc)

• Retire from paid employment• Ties to area released – other factors

become more important (quality of life, etc)

• Income likely to reduce• Health deteriorates

• Property type becomes more important

• Loss of partner• No longer able to provide mutual

support• Require more permanent care & support

Life cycle triggers

•Change in circumstances

•Companionship

•Practical considerations

•Health

Not an option for all but attractive to about 10% of older households

Housing Products

• General needs housing• Market and affordable housing• Encourage households to vacate

family housing• Need a pull factor – what makes the

offer better than the existing home• Smaller dwellings (or at least fewer

bedrooms), easy maintenance, good quality, etc

• When some support required• Market – retirement flats, LSE

housing• Social – Sheltered Cat 1/2

• Significant support required• Extra care

Meet need from

Working empty nesters (50-70)

Fit elderly (60-80)

Frail elderly (75+)

Under-occupancy among over 50s

By age 50 70% of owner-occupiers are under-occupying a family property

More than two-thirds of all households who are under-occupying housing are home owners

But- what housing choices do they have and can they afford to move?Source: 2001 census

Current Supply

Mismatch with tenure

In London more than 80% of stock social rented

but

56%+ of older households are owner-occupiers

Source EAC and clg live table 109

Conclusions• Within plan policy period demand

for retirement housing will exceed current supply

• There is already a mismatch by tenure between demand and supply

• But affordability is linked to income as well as capital.

• Minimal provision for working empty nesters and the fit elderly – what would they aspire to live in – and where?