Katie McGinty

The right woman for the job

Democrat for Governor

URBS 320 | Fall 2013Group 11: Barron, Cuccia, Devyatkin, Farley, Nickel

Introduction  Before we make our pitch, it is important to acknowledge some challenging political realities, because they will greatly influence our strategy and message. History and conventional wisdom suggest that Katie McGinty’s gubernatorial bid is a longshot. The sitting Republican governor, Tom Corbett, has already announced that he will seek reelection. Between 1998 and 2010, 82 percent of incumbent governors who have run for reelection in the U.S. have won. (Jacobson, Jan. 5, 2012) It’s even rarer for a never-elected person, such as McGinty, to unseat an incumbent. It happens less than 5 percent of the time. Moreover, McGinty faces a crowded Democratic primary field with at least two candidates -- U.S. Rep, Allyson Schwartz and self-funding multi-millionaire businessman Tom Wolf -- who are poised to raise significantly more than we likely can. And we have almost no name recognition. And yet … Despite these handicaps, we are convinced that McGinty is the right candidate at the right time and in the right race to buck the trends. Here’s why: While polls show McGinty has anemic name recognition, the percentage of undecided voters is huge. Polls have shown that McGinty fares best among all of the Democratic candidates when they are presented with her narrative. Fundraising will play a critical role in the campaign, but not the deciding role. Candidates matter. And polls suggest that if we can get McGinty’s story out, we can win. Four of the most formidable candidates in the race hail from the Philadelphia area (a fact that is typically a political liability in statewide races). We see those four candidates splitting the Philadelphia vote, with McGinty in that mix. Our regional strategy is simple: to be competitive in the heavily populated Philadelphia area and then dominate in Western Pennsylvania and the Pennsylvania’s “T” – the central, northeastern and northwestern parts of the state where McGinty’s blue collar upbringing and more moderate record plays better than her opponents.  The Allyson Schwartz Problem Although there are at least six candidates in the Democratic field, there is just one that we believe presents the biggest obstacle to our Democratic nomination: Allyson Schwartz. As the only elected federal official in the Democratic primary, Schwartz comes in with some built-in advantages. It will be easier for her to to fundraise, she can use the power of her elected office to get media attention, and she has greater -- albeit modest -- name recognition compared to her opponents. With Schwartz and McGinty running first and second in early polls, it suggests Pennsylvania voters are receptive, if not predisposed, to vote for a woman to defeat Corbett. Schwartz’s endorsement from EMILY’s List is emblematic of the struggle McGinty faces when it comes to securing the critical female vote (which McGinty would otherwise dominate if not for Schwartz). We are not in this race to run a respectable second to Schwartz. And so we propose to aggressively take her on, starting with our campaign motto: “McGinty is the right woman for the

job.” Without saying it, we are telling Pennsylvanians McGinty, not Schwartz, is the best woman in the race and the best option to beat Corbett. And while Schwartz has a built-in constituency in Southeast Pennsylvania, we are convinced that by selling McGinty’s blue collar credentials in the rest of the state, we can best Schwartz -- and by extension the other candidates as well.  Electability The perception of electability will be crucial in the primary. Gov. Corbett’s approval ratings are dismal. According to an August 28 Franklin and Marshall College poll, less than one in five think Corbett is doing a good job; and his rating lags well below those of his immediate predecessors, Ed Rendell and Tom Ridge, at similar points in their first terms. The Rothenberg Political Report lists the race as “leans Democratic” and the Washington Post ranks Pennsylvania as the state most likely to see a party change in the governor’s office. (Doug Dooling, 2013) Among Democrats, as one might imagine, an overwhelming majority think Corbett ought to be ousted from office. Those are our targets in a closed Democratic primary. The fact of the matter is that there isn’t much daylight between the Democratic candidates on the issues. In order to tap into the anti-Corbett sentiment, voters must be convinced McGinty is the most likely to beat Corbett in the general election. Schwartz’s lengthy, liberal voting record would be a gift to the floundering Republican. A vote for Schwartz is a vote for Corbett. As Stuart Rothenberg wrote: “The only viable path to re-election for Corbett looks like if Schwartz wins the nomination and Republicans can paint her as too liberal for the rest of the state outside of Southeast PA.” (Gibson, 2013) This is a point we must drive home with Pennsylvania Democrats. As a campaign, we will make a compelling and credible case that McGinty presents the Democrats’ best hope to defeat Corbett. McGinty owns an inspiring narrative, rising from humble, working-class roots in Philadelphia to a seat at the table among the nation’s leaders making critical decisions about how to improve our environment and at the same time growing jobs. And yet, we will repeatedly stress, unlike Schwartz, McGinty is not a politician. We may be outspent, but we will not come to the fundraising game unarmed. With such a large and relatively unknown field, fundraising will be difficult for all of the Democratic candidates. Nonetheless, we believe McGinty – who has served in state and national environmental roles for both Al Gore and President Bill Clinton and Gov. Ed Rendell -- has resources to tap, inside and outside the state, enough to allow her to compete. Still, we acknowledge that we will likely be outspent by Schwartz and Wolf, and so we will have to spend our money judiciously. With the help of polling and focus groups, we need to target persuadable voters with pinpoint accuracy. Because of our low name-recognition, when it comes to campaign spending, we will prioritize voter persuasion over voter mobilization. That means a

big portion of our spending will be on the TV airwaves. We will lie in wait, allowing the other candidates to waste money early in the campaign attacking each other. In the meantime, we will quietly build name recognition around the state, raise funds and lay the framework for a strong ground game. And when the time is right late in the game, we will unleash an advertising campaign that will launch us into the spotlight. We will target key audiences throughout the state with ads that have been found to be most appealing to the state’s huge cache of undecided voters. Through our ads, we will build our case that the stakes of this election are enormous -- that another four years of Corbett would be devastating to the state’s future -- jobs, the economy, the environment, and education system -- and that we are the most likely to defeat him. We will make clear that we’re more than simply the anti-Corbett. McGinty brings a forward-thinking vision for Pennsylvania, one where it develops into a leader in energy production and education. McGinty has opponents with many of the strongest attributes she brings to the race: there’s another woman; another candidate with private sector business experience; another former state environmental protection administrator. But McGinty is the only complete package.  McGinty on the Issues According to Harper Polling, the three main issues that will decide this election are the economy, education and healthcare. Of course, there are other important issues such as women’s health and civil rights, but we believe that these are the issues and policies that will make Katie McGinty the Democratic candidate in the 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial race. Economic Policies McGinty’s top priority will be creating jobs for middle-class and working families as Pennsylvania aims to lead the nation in economic growth. According to polling, the economy is going to be the

crucial issue in the primary. Job creation has gone from 7th in the country to 46th under Tom

Corbett and unemployment has stayed consistently high at 7.7 percent higher than the national rate of 7.3 percent which fell during the period. First, as a shale state, Pennsylvania should be taking advantage of natural gas development to power new industries, revive manufacturing, and create jobs for Pennsylvanians. Instead of being dependent on foreign energy, she plans to use natural gas to attract life sciences, chemical, pharmaceutical, and high-tech companies. We also support an appropriate severance tax on shale development which exist in other shale states which will provide additional income for Pennsylvania. This, along with the reinforcement of environmental regulations, will help to make Pennsylvania a leader in natural gas and clean and efficient energy production. Second, McGinty also plans to expand job training so the jobs in these new industries go to Pennsylvanians instead of others from out-of-state. Third, McGinty supports the rights of workers to earn fair wages and join labor unions. She was

the first candidate to propose raising Pennsylvania’s minimum wage from $7.25 to $9 per hour and tying it to the Consumer Price Index in order to put give more money to hardworking, middle-class families. Currently the minimum wage is much lower than it was in the 1960s and 1970s when inflation is taken into account. Higher wages will increase consumers’ spending which will help to reinvigorate the economy while reducing poverty and hunger. Lastly, McGinty is supporting a transportation bill that will create jobs and rebuild Pennsylvania’s poor transportation infrastructure. She also plans to invest in public transportation which many Pennsylvanians rely on to get to work every day. These policies will allow Pennsylvania to restore its place as a leading state instead of the lagging state that it has become under Tom Corbett. By creating new jobs, protecting the environment, and making Pennsylvania an attractive place to do business, Pennsylvania can have a bright economic future. A full breakdown of the job creation policies that relate to the environment are in the appendix. Education Policy McGinty plans to put money back into the Pennsylvania public school system to combat the massive cutbacks that Governor Corbett has instituted over his past few years in office. Governor Corbett has cut nearly $1 billion out of the school system, which has dropped Pennsylvania’s state contribution to 32 percent, down from 44 percent when he took office. Katie McGinty plans to refund the public school system to bring the state funded portion back to an average of 50 percent, with local school districts accounting for the other half. McGinty points to two main revenue streams to accomplish her plan. As mentioned in the economy section, she supports the Democratic platform to impose a severance tax on shale gas, which she conservatively calculates would help to raise $600 million in the state (same conclusion as Rep. Schwartz). The second half of the funding in her plan comes from defunding failing charter schools that are not meeting testing standards. In order for this to appeal to a broad electorate, McGinty will need to be very specific as to which charter schools will be shut down or lose funding and exactly where that money will end up. Some major points McGinty made as far as reforming the current state of school system in Pennsylvania is that she plans to reduce class sizes to 25 students to ensure the necessary individualized attention for each student. In addition, McGinty places a great importance on early education and plans to place a large portion of these funds on pre-kindergarten programs in our public schools, while also planning to increase the number of AP class options for high school students. Lastly, her plan also ensures a fair allocation of funding based on income, number of students, and special requirements, such as English as a Second Language programs.    

  Healthcare In order for McGinty to be successful, we must analyze our toughest competitor and her previous successes that she will propagate in her present platform. First, McGinty must address incumbent Corbett’s healthcare stance. He currently looks to offer subsidies in order to buy healthcare through exchanges, but unlike McGinty, Corbett is looking to reject the federal Affordable Care Act to do so. He is utilizing the “premium assistant model,” offering subsidies to 520,000 low-income consumers. His health ideology rejects Medicaid, disfranchising families in need. McGinty will deem Corbett’s healthcare system as a “poison pill.”

Second, because Allyson Schwartz’s is Katie McGinty’s biggest competitor in not only the race of the gubernatorial election, but in the race between females, she must identify one of Schwartz’s major proponents within her political platform; healthcare. She is a major supporter of Medicare, as is McGinty. McGinty, deeming herself a “family woman,” can identify herself with Schwartz’s success on the betterment of healthcare for families, especially children. Voters can be assured that McGinty will maintain and continue the kind of work Schwartz has performed under healthcare reform. Aligning McGinty with Schwartz’s health care ideals is our strategy. It will allow voters to see McGinty as the better choice; carrying out positive and effective health care work as a politician like Schwartz, without actually being a politician. Under healthcare, Schwartz advocates the Innovation Act, which will improve access to new and innovative medicines and devices. McGinty, an environmentalist, seeks to expand innovations through eco-friendly tactics. With this said, McGinty has the same ideals as Shwartz: affordable innovation...the difference is McGinty will do this while also being eco-friendly.

Schwartz seeks to work with academic medical centers, hospitals, pharmaceutical companies,

biotechnology, and medical device manufacturers, something McGinty can do as well, especially with her connections to Gore and Clinton, due to their healthcare involvements in the past. Issue Wrap-Up All of these identified issues can be found on the McGinty for Governor website, along with extensive information based on other important issues. We look to spread the word on McGinty’s stance with these issues by targeting specific regions and groups.  McGinty on Winning the Primary  Demographics and Targeting  Currently Katie McGinty is doing very well in both the Northern Tier and the Southwest of the state. The one area that she is struggling is the Southeast, including Philadelphia, where Allyson Schwartz is currently performing well due to her superior name recognition. As stated earlier, the goal for the primary is to be competitive in the Southeast and be dominant in the rest of the state. This is crucial due to huge number of registered Democrats in the Southeast compared to the rest of the state.  

 Fig 1: This map shows why it is so important for us to be competitive in the Southeast and dominant in the rest of the

state.

 Throughout the state, we plan to target blue-collar workers with promises of job creation, environmental protection, and a raise the minimum wage from $7.25 to $9 per hour. McGinty’s blue-collar background and history as a job creating environmentalist project to be very popular

among these voters.   Median income map Fig 2: This map shows the economic diversity of the state and where we think our policies will be particularly effective as

we plan to attract working class voters.

We also plan to attract female voters from across the state despite the fact that Allyson Schwartz, the other female candidate, is currently the favorite. According to Harper Polling, when voters are read a description of both female candidates, women support McGinty’s profile over Schwartz’s profile by a margin of 28 percent.. Gender breakdown map Fig. 3: This map shows the areas where we plan to attract female voters.

We will also target voters over the age of 65 with whom she projected to gain 54 percent of votes, according to our own poll, and make up 23 percent of registered Democrats. Age breakdown of registered democrats

Fig 4: This table shows the age breakdown of registered democrats in Pennsylvania and why we will be targeting senior

citizens.

In the Philadelphia media market we plan to target non-white voters who make up a much larger proportion of Philadelphia’s population (54.3 percent) than they do in other areas of the state (26.5 percent) and accounts for 40 percent of the non-white population in the state. McGinty has an international background having spent time in India and adopted two Indian children. This along with her opposition to Corbett’s Voter ID legislation will help to attract these voters. Fig 5: This map shows why we will be focusing on the Philadelphia media market when we target the non-white

population in Pennsylvania.  The key will be to broadcast McGinty’s message as broadly as possible because her profile projects to be the best of the four current favorites, but her name recognition is the worst. The most important area to do this will be the Philadelphia area which contains 20 percent of Pennsylvania’s registered Democrats and where Schwartz’s name recognition has given her the early lead.  Fundraising   Katie McGinty’s ability to fundraise over the next few months will be crucial in determining if she can move her campaign for governor from the intriguing underdog candidate she currently is to a legitimate contender to take down Governor Corbett in the general election. We think a realistic goal is to raise $6 million for the primary election. This total will come from a combined effort through state and national fundraising. Our message defining Katie McGinty is a unique blend of a 

problem-solving woman who is not a typical politician despite having tremendous political experience. One of the keys to McGinty’s fundraising will be to rely on her out-of-state environmental contacts, primarily those she worked with in Washington, many of whom have already endorsed her campaign, including Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, in addition to three other Clinton administration officials. She has formed connections through her work with former President Bill Clinton, former Vice President Al Gore, and former PA governor Ed Rendell, and we expect McGinty to tap into these sources throughout her campaign. We understand the restraints this primary poses on potentially seeking money from what would be considered “access” donors; however, in such a large field with so many unknowns, all the Democratic candidates will be on the same playing field as far as this fundraising piece is concerned. With that said, we plan to explore the various interest groups that McGinty can appeal to and stress the importance of this primary. As we have discussed, when given background information on the candidate, McGinty polls the best of all the candidates, so if we can afford to advertise and get her name out there, we are convinced she can deliver. The groups we plan on targeting are women’s groups, stressing that Congresswoman Schwartz is not a shoe-in to beat Governor Corbett in the general. As mentioned, we also plan to target environmental groups, such as the Sierra Club, and compete with John Hanger for the support of these groups. McGinty has done great work and polls well with labor unions, and her blue-collar family background will certainly help her solicit donations. After exhausting her personal contacts, friends, and family, which we plan to have a significant role in raising funds, we also plan to have McGinty reach out through alma maters, both St. Joseph’s University and Columbia Law School, as well as Catholic groups, such as the Knights of Columbus, which could certainly see the benefit supporting a female, Catholic candidate for Governor. McGinty needs to target the demographics that align with her ideology, while the campaign stresses her likeability and, even more important, electability. McGinty poses a real threat to beat the incumbent Governor, and with the necessary fundraising, she will be our next Governor. INCLUDE FUNDRAISING EVENTS LIKE HOUSE PARTIES, COMMUNITY DINNERS, BBQ, DRIVING THRU AREAS...  Budget  Overview As a lesser-known candidate, it will be difficult to attract the same kinds of large contributions that some other candidates might receive. We anticipate raising at least $6 million for the primary election, although we would prefer closer to $8 million. Our largest task will be building name recognition. Polls show that when potential voters are given a short bio of McGinty, she

actually performs the best of all Democratic candidates; therefore, creating more exposure and increasing awareness is central to our mission. In order to accomplish this, however, money must be spent on the support mechanisms that allow for effective, targeted publicity and exposure. There are two primary categories into which campaign expenses fall: first, Organizational and Administrative, and second, Communications and Research. We split the budget into these two categories, the first of which refers to mostly internal, behind-the-scenes costs, with the second referring to costs associated with reaching and communicating with the public. Additionally, we view spending and costs against a timeline leading up to the primary election in May. The McGinty campaign should be prepared to spend all of its budget by the primary.  Organizational and Administrative The organizational and administrative section of the budget contains the behind the scenes activity -- staff, travel expenses, and office operational costs. Because money is tight, our expenditures will be limited, but as mentioned in the staff section, a robust and reliable staff is necessary for a campaign of this caliber. Necessarily, staff, both in-house and outside consulting, will comprise a significant portion of our budget. Additionally, McGinty will need two smaller satellite offices across the state (Pittsburgh and Harrisburg) in addition to a main office in Philadelphia, and each of these offices will require supplies and equipment. In the scheme of the rest of the campaign, these costs will be minimal. She will also need to spend money on campaign tours. Closer to the election, we also anticipate a Get Out the Vote effort, the organization and planning of which will draw funds from this portion of the budget. Communications and Research A strong staff does not negate our need to spend on outreach, advertising, and research; it simply makes our other efforts more effective. As has been seen in recent election cycles, social media has the power to reach many people while costing very little. We plan to harness the power of social media as one low-cost tool for building recognition. Additionally, we will use strategically placed television ads. Television ads will constitute a large portion of our budget, because there is no cheap way to buy the right airtime. These ads will also be available online. Finally, a portion of the budget will be dedicated to fundraising efforts and events across the State. Timing There are just over five months until the primary election. By the time of the primary, McGinty should go all in with her money. To go with the “hold-your-fire” approach, spending will not be constant over these next few months. Office expenses and staff and consultant salaries and fees will remain constant throughout the campaign. Additionally, polling and other research activities will occur these next three months. The information derived from these will inform the ads to come later in the campaign. The big change in spending will begin two months before the primary election. This is when McGinty should start producing her big television ads and when the

campaign would start ramping up for the tracking polls, both of which will require more money than previous efforts. Also, spending for Get Out the Vote efforts will increase closer to election day. These spending patterns will result in the budget being back loaded, but we feel this approach will be most effective.

Behind the Scenes - People and Research  Staff Current Staff Campaign Manager Mike Mikus Campaign Chairman TJ Rooney Communications and consulting SKDKnickerbocker Pollster Fred Yang (Garin Hart Yang Research Group) Labor Issues Advisor J.J. Johnston New Media Consultant NGP VAN Having the right staff on a campaign is important. Business gurus talk about the idea of “having the right people on the bus,” and this could not be more true when deciding on campaign staff. McGinty has already decided to invest in staff who have experience and clout. As a first-time candidate for office, this is the right move. While McGinty’s budget is limited, she needs to make sure that her budget is used to its fullest potential. By choosing SKDKnickerbocker, McGinty has access to a top-notch communications and political consulting firm that has worked with a number of winning campaigns. They also have the capacity to develop her television, print, radio, and internet presence, in addition to general political consulting. In a campaign manager, it is important that McGinty use someone with local (Pennsylvania) knowledge and connections. Mike Mikus fills this role perfectly, having extensive experience and success in various Pennsylvania elections. He also has considerable experience in the western portion of the state, where McGinty will need to do well. While she has been extensively involved in government, she has never had to run a campaign before, so having staff who know the ropes, so to speak, is imperative. Additionally, hiring an outside consulting firm with the cache of SKDKickerbocker provides her campaign with the expertise of consultants who have worked on high-profile campaigns across the country. This combination provides McGinty with a “best of both worlds” approach, with both local expertise and high-profile experience. Through specific staff members and hiring several specialty firms, McGinty has the major staff roles covered. In addition, the campaign will need to rely on volunteers, particularly for outreach efforts.  

Polling and Research Polling is one of the most powerful tools a campaign has to determine how to develop, target, and refine the candidate’s message to resonate with voters. The primary is about winning over registered Democrats, many of whom are more familiar with other candidates. Recent polls, however, show that McGinty polls well when people are given some background information about her. Information such as this will shape ad campaigns and provide insight into targeting in general. Polling will reveal how McGinty fares among different age groups, socio-economic groups, and geographies. Because we are not anticipating having the largest purse of all the Democrats in the primary, appropriately targeting our approach will be paramount. At this point, the benchmark poll is past. Now is the time for trend polls, which will reveal how our position has changed in the race since we began, regarding both the attitudes of likely voters toward McGinty and the importance of various issues. Two of these trend polls between now and the beginning of April will provide useful snapshots and should cost roughly $13,000 each. Potential questions for trend polls can be found in the Appendix. These polls will gauge how likely voters feel about particular issues, attitudes about the different candidates, and the political backdrop. Such snapshots of the attitudes of likely voters will allow the campaign to tweak the language of McGinty’s message or refocus attention to certain issues. The landscape of the race will change, and polling will allow McGinty to adjust her strategies to these changes. In April, just over a month before the primary, we will begin tracking polls. These are costly because they need to be done frequently. Unless McGinty’s financial standing changes, tracking polls will likely be limited to once or twice a week, as opposed to on a daily basis. While we see the benefit of holding back on spending earlier in order to spend much more later in the campaign, such spending is more in regards of advertising and outreach. Spending on polling and other forms of research will need to happen at all stages of the campaign, however polling spending will increase when the tracking polls begin in April, as we expect these to cost $8,000 per week, for a total of $48,000 for twelve (two per week) tracking polls. For the two trend polls, we would like a sample size around 700. Due to increasingly lower response rates to phone polls over the last several election cycles, this likely will require over 7500 calls. A Pew Research report from 2012 stated that response rates had dropped to a meager 9 percent. For the tracking polls, our desired sample size will be slightly smaller, around 500. Still, this will require roughly 5500 calls. An additional $12,000 will be allocated to additional research efforts, such as focus groups and opposition research.

Strategy Social Media How familiar is Katie McGinty? We will hold events near media centers in order to gain ‘free media,’ including speaking at town hall meetings and political rallies. Lawn signs will be placed through Pennsylvania, in all regions for name recognition. McGinty’s platform, biographical information, and why she is running will be displayed online to the Katie McGinty website. We will link our Twitter and Facebook accounts onto our site, and supply our Facebook friends and Twitter followers with recognition as to who verbally supports McGinty and who donates to her campaign. In doing this, supporters may want to gain some recognition of their own and be included in a media post, thus encouraging more donations. We will also post our incumbent Corbett’s faults on a daily basis onto our Twitter and Facebook accounts, one negative fact per day. All events will be highlighted by audio, video, and photo can be accessed through Instagram and YouTube accounts. We will spread McGinty’s messages through local newspapers and web ads on popular websites such as Hulu, Pandora and Spotify. We will release television ads one-third of the way through the election, in order for voters to gain name recognition and familiarity. We will allow for the other candidates to attack and push their name, sit back, and at the most earnest moment, release the ads. McGinty will be seen through television as a ‘breath of fresh air’ that does not engage in the political debauchery which is exposed during cut-throat elections. Earned Media  Because we are expecting to lag behind a bit in fundraising, we will have to be very aggressive in seeking earned media. Earned/free media is critical to build name recognition, and because it is neutral and independent, it can provide us needed credibility with voters. While Schwartz enjoys the media pulpit afforded to elected officials, our campaign will need to hustle more and play a bit of small ball – seeking out coverage in smaller newspapers and radio stations around the state. As McGinty crisscrosses the state in the coming months, the campaign should make her available for one-on-one interviews with reporters and editors at local newspapers in the small towns she is visiting for Town Hall or special interest/social group meetings. Those small daily and weekly publications are the most likely to publish stories based around a campaign appearance, even in a crowded Democratic primary. These types of interviews and the Q & A format of Town Hall and group meetings play into our candidate’s

strengths. Comfortable speaking to large groups, McGinty is a charismatic speaker. As a former state official, she is well versed on the detail of most issues that might arise. In short, she shines in these kinds of settings. We also should seek major press coverage (including TV and newspaper) for several position events. For example, we should hold an event to highlight McGinty’s support for raising the minimum wage (which McGinty proposes to raise from $7.25 an hour to $9 an hour). A press conference in a modest diner flanked by several single mothers struggling to make ends meet would set the proper tone, and would allow McGinty to remind voters of her blue collar roots. We might stage several such events in the state’s largest cities. We must invite recognizable political and labor leaders to help lure press attention. We should also press hard for TV and newspaper coverage of a press conference detailing McGinty’s education plan, which we discussed earlier in this report. Our internal polling shows that when asked what they think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today, education was at or near top. This is also an issue that appeals particularly to women, a key constituency for McGinty. The communications staffers will stay in close contact with members of the media and build credibility by being scrupulously accurate, and respecting them time by not bombarding them with press releases. However, we will issue regular press releases on McGinty’s policy initiatives, tied to legitimate news events. For example: outlining McGinty’s economic plan on the occasion of the announcement of a poor jobs report in the state; or the outlining of McGinty’s education plan coordinated at the time of the release of school performance results.Perhaps most important, we need to be nimble, reacting quickly to news events that we can use to point out differences with our opponents, or to highlight popular policy positions – and to make McGinty available for a quick statement on those events. We will also provide sound bites for TV and radio to make it easier for them to include McGinty’s take on campaign developments and news events. And when tracking polls show McGinty making headway, we will share those results with the press and to fundraisers. That will be key to show momentum, to convince the media to pay attention to our campaign and to convince potential funders that we are worth the risk. Late in the campaign, we will unveil surprise endorsements from popular entertainers and/or politicians. While Clinton is unlikely to endorse in a Democratic primary -- particularly since Hillary Clinton is likely to run for president and cannot burn any bridges -- a late endorsement from Al Gore could help draw some media attention.  TV Ads/Timing   As important as the content of our ads is the timing. As we mentioned earlier, we do not anticipate being able to compete with some of our opponents dollar-for-dollar. Wolf has already said he plans to spend $10 million on the primary campaign. And Schwartz, as a sitting U.S. congresswoman, will likely be able to match or exceed that. Our strategy is to employ a “hold

your fire” approach, waiting until the final weeks of the primary campaign to unload the bulk of our TV budget. In part, this is a strategy of financial necessity. We simply do not have the resources to maintain a sustained, months-long TV ad war. Although risky, there are strategic advantages to our plan as well. We anticipate that much of the early ads from our opponents will focus on comparisons to Corbett and attacking (and counter-attacking) each other. Moreover, Corbett-aligned factions are likely to attack Schwartz prior to the Democratic primary, in hopes of weakening someone who many perceive as the front-runner (or, we would argue, to cleverly raise her status because they think she is the most beatable Democratic candidate). Corbett has already publicly attacked Schwartz’s plan to fund education and infrastructure with a tax on natural-gas drillers (McGinty supports a similar tax to fund education but, tellingly, she is not also being targeted by name). And the Republican Party has also targeted Schwartz in a web ad that attacks "the Obama-Schwartz war on Pennsylvania energy and jobs." (Brennan, 2013) Schwartz has a lengthy legislative record that will provide ample fodder for Republican opponents to attack her as a Philadelphia tax-and- spend liberal – and one who is not only pro-choice, but who once operated a women’s clinic where abortions were performed (Although McGinty is also pro-choice, such an attack would greatly benefit McGinty among pro-life Democrats in the central part of the state). Schwartz is also likely to face ad attacks from Wolf, whose only realistic path to victory is to take on Schwartz. By lying in the weeds, we may well spare McGinty the brunt of such early attacks. We also do not believe there will be much interest in the primary race early on. As the primary nears, and voters begin to actually start paying attention to the race, many voters will be looking for a fresh alternative. And that’s when we will introduce McGinty in earnest. We have seen time and again that in crowded primaries, candidates often emerge from the seeming shadows at just the right moment late in the campaign to capture the nomination (ala Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter). That is our plan. Introductory Ad Although we propose to reserve the bulk of our TV advertising budget until the final weeks of the campaign, we will invest a bit on an early introductory ad. The purpose of this ad will be threefold: to build name recognition; to define our candidates before our opponents have a chance to define her; and to help stimulate fundraising.  We will seek to make an emotional appeal by emphasizing McGinty’s working-class roots as the daughter of a police officer and restaurant hostess, the 9th of 10 children, the first in her family to go to college, and that she’s a working mom. This opener is a critical component in our appeal to blue-collar voters in Central and Western Pennsylvania. The ad will then segway into her management experience in the private sector, and then her trailblazing role as woman who became a national and state environmental leader -- mentioning her bosses by name: Al Gore, Bill Clinton and Ed Rendell. Newspaper quotes from one or all of those men praising McGinty should be shown on the screen.(a non-endorsement endorsement). The ad also will stress that in those

jobs, McGinty balanced preserving the environment with job creation. And last, the ad will emphasize that she has been a leader and a problem solver who will work hard for the hard-working people of Pennsylvania. We’ll leave issues for another day. Voters selecting a governor, as opposed to a congressman, are less concerned about issues than they are about leadership, honesty and someone with whom they can identify. It is important that at least part of the ad be direct-to-camera from McGinty. Most will never have heard of her and it’s important that they can see who she is. More subtly, McGinty’s unmistakable Philadelphia accent will send the message to Philadelphia voters that she is one of them. Schwarz may be an elected official representing Southeast Pennsylvania, but she’s not from Philly (she was raised in Queens, NY). And that matters to some voters. If McGinty is to win, she can’t just win outside Philadelphia, she needs to be competitive in the southeast region.  The Late Push  We will conduct extensive polling and focus groups to determine the most effective messages to target persuadable residents who are likely to vote. Those efforts will also provide more clarity about which of McGinty’s positions or personal story resonate best with those voters, so that we can be sure to focus on those themes in our ads. But even without polling, we already know some things. Independent voters who backed Corbett are experiencing buyers remorse. Even a majority of Republicans believe he should be voted out of office. And so our ads will frequently directly contrast our candidate with Corbett (matching with our issue theme, such as jobs, education and diversity). We will also more subtly compare ourselves to the other Democratic opponents. For example, when we note in ads McGinty’s accomplishments in the governmental sector, we will note that she is not a politician (a dig at Schwartz without naming her). Voters are tired of holding their noses when they cast their ballot. They want to feel good about electing someone. This time, our ads will make clear that Pennsylvanians have an opportunity to for somebody. Because our TV ad campaign will come late in the campaign season, it’s critical that our ads have impact. We simply don’t have enough time to miss. So we will emphasize focus group review of ads before they run. And we will use polling to identify the groups most likely to change their vote due to our ads. We will target our TV advertising on programs and markets most likely to reach our demographic targets -- women, blue-collar workers, environmentalists, minorities. As we mentioned earlier, we plan to carry the day by winning all of the regions outside Philadelphia. So while we won’t ignore the Philadelphia market, we will spend the bulk of our TV ad budget in the the less expensive markets in the central and western parts of the state. It is important that we saturate those markets with repeated flights of ads to ensure they sink in and have measurable impact. If the circumstances dictate that we need to more directly and harder against Schwartz, we could run an ad mocking Schwartz for triple-promising natural gas tax revenues for transportation,

pre-K and general education. Those all sound great. But how would she pay for it? Schwartz: from a tax on natural gas. Typical politician, promising everyone everything. That kind of thing might go over in Washington DC, but Pennsylvania voters are smarter than that. Here’s a refreshing idea, let’s be honest with the voters of Pennsylvania and treat them like adults. Finally, in the last days of the campaign we will end with a positive message, stressing McGinty’s vision and highlighting prominent endorsements as well as major newspaper endorsements. We would be remiss if we did not address and plan for a likely attack against McGinty based on a 2007 Ethics Commission finding that when McGinty served as the Pennsylvania Secretary of Environmental Protection under Rendell, the department wrongly awarded millions of dollars worth of contracts to a company that employed her husband as a consultant. It makes for an easy attack ad, with the potential to be blown out of proportion as a conflict-of-interest misuse of the public trust. In other words, if/when McGinty is deemed a potential threat to the Democratic nomination, it is likely to prove irresistible to one or more of her opponents, even if there’s not much substance to it. We need to be prepared with an immediate response ad -- in addition to a press conference and reaching out to print and other media -- to diffuse the attack. Here are the key elements of our rapid response: The Ethics Commission did not say McGinty did anything wrong, it simply clarified that in the future, cabinet members should remove themselves from decisions involving contracts to nonprofits for whom a spouse is employed. That was a matter of legal dispute and confusion, as even the Commonwealth Court contradicted the Ethics Commisssion finding (though it was upheld by the state Supreme Court). McGinty’s husband was paid the whopping sum (sarcasm) of $3,750 in state funds for consulting work in behalf of a subsidiary that received the state grants. The Ethics Commission said he was not involved in seeking the grants. Notably, the company that hired McGinty’s husband was awarded about $4 million in state grants in the four years of the Republican administration before McGinty became DEP secretary. So this was simply a continuation of awards. After the facts of the matter were well-established, the state legislature reconfirmed McGinty as DEP secretary by an overwhelming margin (42-6), including a majority of Republicans. We will also provide clips from the Inquirer stating, “The history of these groups' work with the state dispels a profit motive.” Also, a quote from Rendell who stood by McGinty’s actions, stating that she had conducted herself “with the highest measure of honesty and impartiality.” Rendell said McGinty has been “upholding the public's interest and their trust when making decisions.” He went on to note McGinty’s “esteemed caliber an impeccable reputation.” Get Out the Vote (GOTV) We must address our main disadvantages; experience and name recognition. McGinty has performed tons of behind the scenes environmentalist work under Al Gore and Bill Clinton, but has yet to become a politician. Therefore, she suffers familiarity compared to her other competitors. With a lack of politically accessed money, approximately $200,000 will be allocated to the GOTV campaign.

We must address our message to potential voters and convince them as to why they should vote. Katie McGinty is THE democratic candidate to defeat incumbent Governor Tom Corbett. If Corbett remains in office, Pennsylvania’s education system, job opportunity, and civil rights will be held to even greater stakes. If the people of Pennsylvania get out and vote, they will no longer be detained under a dim light controlled by Corbett, but a shining beacon of hope lead by McGinty. Fliers will be placed around all major regions in Pennsylvania, excluding Philadelphia and Allentown. Putting less of an emphasis in these two regions will allow us to focus on the regions that give us a ‘better shot’ on winning the vote, due to a recent Harpers Poll in November. We will hold voter registration booths in local private and public schools, as well as sending voter registrations through direct mail to those specific regions which will include McGinty’s platform and bio information. It is important for us to only target people through mailing who have voted in the last three to four gubernatorial elections due to limited budgeting and resources. We are looking to spend money in our campaign on people who are most likely to sway into voting for McGinty and who are probable to actually get out and vote. We will carry out telephoning with automated messages promoting to get out the vote, on top of automated text messages through our calling center headquarters to the young people population. We will have our staff call the Irish-Catholic community with personalized messages through our calling center, as well as going door to door especially in family-oriented neighborhoods. We will supply electronic petitioning through our website on ‘hot-topic’ issues such as same-sex marriage, encouraging the young vote. We will lure young voters with a potential in increasing minimum wage and reach out to top universities such as the University of Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania State University. Students from those universities, or nearby can come to the school and hear McGinty speak. Interest groups, such as the Sierra Club, Catholic organizations, and alma maters, St. Joeseph’s University and Columbia University, networking bases will be contacted through direct mail and the calling center. We will also work closely with the League of Women Voters, an organization that emphasizes the importance of democratic women. The organization also focuses on decision making policies that benefit the environment. In this GOTV campaign, they will protect and encourage women voters in favor of McGinty.

General Election  After winning the Democratic primary, we plan to continue our strategy of attacking Tom Corbett on issues such Education, Economy, Environment and Healthcare while also beginning to attack his discrimination policies. We expect our competitors in the primary to have a similar strategy of attacking Corbett so we think that he will begin the race from a relatively weak position for an incumbent. We also expect that Corbett will be ready to attack McGinty as soon as the primary ends and we will not be able to respond at first while we wait for funding to come in. We expect

that Corbett will be in a very weak position by the end of the primary given our attacks and his own poor track record. As soon as the primary is over, we will begin fundraising again. We plan to contact those that donated to our primary campaign in order to maintain their support and raise funds. We also anticipate to have access to a huge number of resources that we didn’t have during the primary. We will look for funding and an endorsement from Bill Clinton. We understand that he will be hesitant to endorse anyone in the primary in a state that will be vital if Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2016, but we expect that he will strongly support McGinty if she wins the primary. Ed Rendell has said that he will not endorse anyone in the primary given his ties to multiple candidates, but we expect that he too will strongly support McGinty in the General. We think that his connections within Pennsylvania, especially the Southeast will help our campaign in many ways. We will look for support from female groups that may have supported Schwartz in the primary, such as Emily’s List. We will enlist the support and fundraising capability of the Democratic Party. We will use her status as an environmental candidate to try to attract resources from environmental groups that may have donated or supported Hanger in the primary. Lastly, we will look to attract support and money from anyone or any group that has become disillusioned with Corbett; we expect this to be a very large group of people. We will continue our policies that we outlined in the primary, especially emphasizing that McGinty is not a career politician, but she does have experience creating jobs in politics. This projects to be a very attractive attribute, especially against Corbett. Lastly, we plan to have a very strong GOTV effort by emphasizing the importance of defeating Corbett for the future of Pennsylvania. We anticipate this will have two effects on voter turnout. First, Democratic voter turnout is historically very low in elections that do not coincide with a presidential election. We need to make sure turnout is higher than usual. We plan to use Corbett’s failures to encourage many people to vote that would not ordinarily vote in a gubernatorial election. Second, we anticipate that to be able to attract some Republicans to vote for McGinty given Corbett’s unpopularity and McGinty’s status as a more conservative Democrat. We plan to competitive all over the state while dominating the Southeastern area of the state. McGinty is currently polling very well throughout the state in the Primary and we think that this will continue as her name recognition increases. We expect that she will dominate in the Southeast given its status as a democratic stronghold and the help that we will receive from Rendell.  Appendix  More jobs and environmental information:

1. Create jobs by developing clean efficient energy. This will make energy less costly for businesses and allow Pennsylvania to become more energy efficient and independent.

a. Expand state’s Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS) to require utilities to include renewable, alternative and advanced energy sources in their portfolios. McGinty created this as head of the Department of Environmental Protection and it helped to attract investment, generate jobs and boost local economies as Pennsylvania became a national leader in the job creation in the wind and solar sector.

b. Expand Act 129 which McGinty developed while Secretary for the DEP. It has, and will continue, to cut electricity bills by $300 million per year while creating new jobs in energy engineering, contracting and installment.

c. Upgrade the electric grid through investments and reduce Pennsylvania’s reliance on it by distribution generation[1] and microgrids[2].

2. Create jobs by developing the Marcellus Shale and protecting the environment a. Expand job training so shale jobs go to Pennsylvanians. Pennsylvania’s share of

these jobs dropped from 72 percent in 2011 to 57 percent in 2012. Job training will allow this number to return to 72 percent.

b. Financing programs to give priority to industries that use natural gas and gas byproducts to expand their operations in Pennsylvania.

c. The Pennsylvania Turnpike will become a “Green Highway” with refueling stations for natural gas and electric vehicles

d. Convert centrally refueled state vehicles to natural gas which will create demand, save money, and reduce pollution.

e. Minimize the environmental footprint related to gas development, “including but not limited to: develop and enforce appropriate casing and cementing practices in well development to guard against methane migration; full disclosure of fracking fluids; requiring “green completion” of gas wells to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from well development; continue the push for zero net water consumption; ensure proper handling, treatment, and disposal of produced and flowback water; and ensure adequate setbacks and buffers around streams.”

f. Environmental regulations have fallen by 50% in Pennsylvania despite the industry growing by 60% in the past three years. These regulations need to be enforced to grow with the industry.

g. Drilling will be banned in state parts and the moratorium will be continued on leasing in state forest lands.

h. Communities will be allowed to impose reasonable zoning regulations to protect important areas. 

  Sample Polling Questions 1.     Please indicate whether your reaction to the following candidate types would be:

(1) Favorable (2) Somewhat Favorable (3) Neutral

(4) Somewhat Unfavorable (5) Unfavorable

1.     Successful in creating jobs and protecting the environment 2.     Over two decades in elected office, including time in Washington 3.     Experience in both business and government

2.     If the Democratic Primary were held today, and the candidates were Tom Wolf, Allyson Schwartz, Ed Pawlowski, Katie McGinty, or Rob McCord, whom would you support? 3.     Please rank the following issues in order of importance in this gubernatorial election: ∙      Jobs and the economy ∙      Energy and shale gas ∙      Health care ∙      School funding ∙      Social issues ∙      Property taxes  Example Television Ads  Energy/Jobs Ad: McGinty, straight-to-camera: Home-grown energy is crucial to our nation’s national security. We don’t want to be beholden to oil producers overseas. That’s why when I was head of the state’s Department of Environmental Protection, I got bipartisan support to encourage Pennsylvania to be a leading manufacturer of alternative energy. And I got results: a billion dollars in new investments and 3,000 new jobs. The state became second in solar energy manufacturing and first in protecting farmland and open space. Don’t let anyone tell you it’s either the economy or the environment. That’s a false choice. We can do better. Education Ad: McGinty, straight to camera: When it comes to education, you get what you pay for. Gov. Corbett has cut a billion dollars from the education budget. In Pennsylvania, the state used to pay 50 percent of the tab; now it pays 38 percent – one of the lowest rates in the country. As a result, it’s become a game of the have and have-nots. That’s not right. All of our children deserve a fair shot. I’d restore the funding, and I’ve got a plan to pay for it. I’d limit class size to 20 students, create more early learning opportunities and offer more AP courses in high school. We can do better. For more information on my plan, go to my website, KatieMcGinty.com Diversity Ad: This ad would only be shown in Philadelphia and Pitttsburgh, appealing directly to minority voters. Shorter versions including only Corbett’s comment about Latinos could be shown on

Spanish-language TV. Narrator: Here’s Tom Corbett’s idea of diversity. Show three examples of Corbett in his own words, in black and white. TV host: "There there was a controversial comment made by a member of your legal team, comparing gay marriage to the union of 12-year-olds. You said that was inappropriate." Corbett: "It was inappropriate. I think a better analogy would be between a brother and sister don't you?" Cut to another TV host: Do you have staff members that are Latino? Corbett: No, we do not have any staff members in there. If you can find us one, please let me know. Cut to third Corbett interview, saying: “There are many employers who say, look, we’re looking for people but we can’t find anybody that has passed a drug test, a lot of them.” Cut to McGinty, straight to camera: “These comments are more than just jarring and embarrassing. They’re wrong.” Pan back from McGinty to show her with her family, including two daughters adopted from India. Switch from dour background music to uplifting. McGinty: “I happen to think we are at our best when everybody gets to take a fair shot -- instead of everyone ‘taking their piece.’ Together, we can do better.” If the circumstances dictate that we need to strike more directly and harder against Schwartz, we could run an ad mocking Schwartz for triple promising natural gas tax revenues for transportation, pre-K and general education. Those all sound great. But how would she pay for them? Schwartz: from a tax on natural gas. Typical politician, promising everyone everything. That kind of thing might go over in Washington DC, but Pennsylvania voters are smarter than that. Here’s a refreshing idea, let’s be honest with the voters of Pennsylvania and treat them like adults. We would be remiss if we did not address and plan for a likely attack against McGinty based on a 2007 Ethics Commission finding that when McGinty served as the Pennsylvania Secretary of Environmental Protection under Rendell, the department wrongly awarded millions of dollars worth of contracts to a company that employed her husband as a consultant. It makes for an easy attack ad, with the potential to be blown out of proportion as a conflict-of-interest misuse of the public trust. In other words, if/when McGinty is deemed a potential threat to the Democratic nomination, it is likely to prove irresistible to one or more of her opponents, even if there’s not much substance to it. We need to be prepared with an immediate response ad -- in addition to a press conference and reaching out to print media -- to diffuse the attack. Here are the key elements of our rapid response: The Ethics Commission did not say McGinty did anything wrong, it simply clarified that in the future, cabinet members should remove themselves from decisions involving contracts to nonprofits for whom a spouse is employed. That was a matter of legal dispute and confusion, as even the Commonwealth Court contradicted the Ethics Commission finding (though it was upheld by the state Supreme Court). McGinty’s husband was

paid the whopping sum (sarcasm) of $3,750 in state funds for consulting work in behalf of a subsidiary that received the state grants. The Ethics Commission said he was not involved in seeking the grants. Notably, the company that hired McGinty’s husband was awarded about $4 million in state grants in the four years of the Republican administration before McGinty became DEP secretary. After the facts of the matter were well established, the state legislature reconfirmed McGinty as DEP secretary by an overwhelming margin (42-6), including a majority of Republicans. We will also provide clips from the Inquirer stating, “The history of these groups' work with the state dispels a profit motive.” Also a quote from Rendell who stood by McGinty’s actions, stating that she had conducted herself “with the highest measure of honesty and impartiality.” Rendell said McGinty has been “upholding the public's interest and their trust when making decisions.” He went on to note McGinty’s “esteemed caliber an impeccable reputation.”

[1] Distribution generation – Method of generating electricity from many small energy sources. [2] Microgrids – Localized grouping of electricity generation and energy storage that are connected to a traditional centralized grid.