Katy Morris: Project ManagerNick Down: Assistant ManagerTravis Hamel: GIS Analyst

Freeman Ranch Flood Prediction Model

Image Credit: Art Arizpe

Prepared by GeoTrek – The Next Generation

Background• Major precipitation event in October 2013• Led to flooding in Freeman Ranch

Before After

Background• People were trapped at the ranch• Total fence property damage est.

$140,000

Summary• GeoTrek : The Next

Generation create flood-prediction model• Use a Geographic

Information System (GIS)• Will aid Freeman Ranch

to minimize repercussion from future flood events

Purpose• Primary goal is to create a flood prediction model for Freeman

Ranch• Minimize damage• Make Freeman ranch more flood resistant • Propose possible construction reinforcement of roads and fences

that are more vulnerable• Secondary goal is the use of the model to make Freeman

Ranch a safer environment• Help know which roads are inundated to safely relieve personnel• Which pastures are most vulnerable to flooding so all livestock

can be removed from the area.

Scope

• Study areas within Freeman Ranch• Fences and locating areas where they are at

high risk• Access roads for employees• Physical infrastructure

• The timespan is variable: a lot can affect how quickly waters can rise with a flash flood event in Central Texas.

Scope

Primary Research• Cellular Automation-It consists of a regular grid of cells, each

in one of a finite number of states, such as “On” and “Off” (in contrast to a coupled map lattice). The grid can be in any finite number of dimensions. For each cell, a set of cells called its neighborhood (usually including the cell itself) is defined relative to the specified cell.

Literature Review• Central Texas Flood research

Hydrologic Modeling of an Extreme Flood in the Guadalupe River in Texas. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources association

• GIS Flood Prediction Modeling ResearchFlood Modeling and Vulnerability of Settlements in the

Adamawa State Floodplain Using GIS and Cellular Framework Approach.

Data• Digital Elevation Model – USGS• Uses: Slope, Aspect, Elevations, Drainage

• GeoDatabase – GeoTrek• Uses: Physical infrastructure, detailed watershed

• Weather Data – A&M and USGS

Methodology

1. Gather appropriate dataDetermine variables needed for analysis

Methodology

2. Process dataCreate a grid system from DEMProject other data in ArcMap

Methodology

3. Conduct GIS analysisAssign a value to each cell in the grid Mathematically determined

Methodology

3. Conduct GIS analysisUse time variable to visualize spread

Methodology

3. Conduct GIS analysisProject infrastructure data to determine which areas will be

affected

Methodology

4. Compare findings to known dataCompare results to known data Iterate step 3 until results are accurate

Methodology5. Compile final deliverablesCreate a real-time flood model for usersWill aide in determining which areas will be affected at what

time

Implications• The results of our flood prediction model can be used to

determine what fences, pastures, and roads become jeopardized during a potential flood.

• The model will be able to simulate how flood waters will rise and what areas become inundated.

• It will be possible to determine what areas of freeman ranch are inaccessible or need to be evacuated of personnel and livestock.

Budget• Data Collection• $1,800

• Data Analysis• $13,500

• System Management and Payroll• $10,650

• Project Manager – $5400• Assistant Manager – $2750• GIS Analyst – $2500

• Equipment Costs• $2786.11

• Software and Data Costs• $4791

• Travel Expenses• $25.00

Total Project Cost

• $33,552.74

Timetable

1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/5 3/12 3/19 3/26 4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23 4/30 5/2

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Meet with client; research *

Data collection, maniupulation *

Pre-process data

Analysis and Interpretation *

Edit; finalize

Preperation of final product

Final presentation *

Week No.Activity

Week Date

• 1/22 – Receive request for proposal from client• 2/12 – Proposal to client• 3/26 – Progress report to client• 5/2 – Final project presentation to client

* Weeks with important dates

Final Deliverables

• Final report and an accompanying PowerPoint Presentation• 2 CD/DVDs containing:• All data• Metadata• All reports• Digital copy of poster• PowerPoint Presentations

• Professional poster outlining the project and its purpose• Web portal for use by the Freeman Ranch

Conclusions• GeoTrek : TNG will use a GIS to create a flood-prediction model for

Freeman Ranch• Use terrain, weather, and infrastructure data• Use the concept of cellular automation to model the flood• Aid Freeman Ranch assessing areas of potential risk to help minimize

damage from future flood events

Participation• Katy Morris: Project Manager, Editor• Nick Down: Assistant Manager, Graphic Designer• Travis Hamel: GIS Analyst, Primary Researcher