kcdc 2015 slow down to speed up

Matt Anderson, PMP, PMI-ACPDirector, Cerner Technology Services

Slow Down to Speed Up:It’s All About Delivery

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BRNDEXP 2.1 0714 © 2014 Cerner Corporation. All rights reserved. This document contains Cerner confidential and/or proprietary information belonging to Cerner Corporation and/or its related affiliates which may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the express written consent of Cerner

3

Tortoise and the Hare

• Aesop’s Fable

• Agile

• Agile processes promote sustainable development

• The sponsors, developers, and users should be able to maintain a constant

pace indefinitely

• Lean

• Create Continuous Process Flow to Bring Problems to the Surface

• Use Pull Systems to Avoid Overproduction

• Level Out the Workload

• Win the “Development Game” – Alistair Cockburn

• “Speed is not the objective, it is a means to an end; the objective is making

money” – Don Reinertsen


4

Utilization Versus Throughput

100% Road utilization=> Terrible throughput

Car in Car out


5

Utilization Versus Throughput

Size matters…


6

Start and Stop vs Flow


7

MODOT Flow Problem

• Springfield, MO • 4-lane highway overpasses not able to handle the

volume of traffic

• Option 1• Tear down existing and build a new 6 lane overpass

($10 M cost)

• Option 2• Find a better way to achieve throughput with

existing structure


8

Double Cross-over Diamond (DCD) Exchange

• https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publicroads/10novdec/01.cfm - Cost $3.2M


9

DCD Improvements in Flow

• In comparison to conventional model• Total delay

• 67% reduction per vehicle

• Total number of vehicle stops• 50% reduction

• Time spent stopped• 75% reduction

• Capacity• 30% increase

• 4 lane DCD = 6 lane conventional

• Improved efficiency saves cost of construction of 2 lanes• Able to refactor existing bridge infrastructure as opposed to rebuilding

• Safety• 5 year comparative study

• DCD – 11 light injury accidents (no fatalities)• Conventional – 23 fatal or severe injury accidents

• Vehicle speed• Slower per vehicle (24 mph vs 34 mph)


10

Elimination of Conflicts

• Traditional• 26 conflict points

• DCD• 14 conflict points

• Conflicts = Handovers in software development


11

Roundabouts

• Throughput• Delays reduced by 89%• Number of vehicles stopping by 56%• Average 20% increase over 4 way stop• Average 40% increase over stop light

• Safety• More than 90% reduction in fatalities• 76% reduction in injuries• 35% reduction in all crashes• Reduce conflict points from 32 to 8

• Fuel consumption reduced by 32%

• Speed reduced to 15-25 mph• 5-10 mph slower than conventional

• Mythbusters study• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvoFjirrgYA


12

Queuing System: items in queue & items in service

Arrivals Departures

Simple System Dynamics


13

Queuing Theory

• Mathematical study of waiting in lines (or queues)

• Key Measures

• Lead Time• Time from client request to client deployment – “arrival rate”

• Cycle Time• Time from work started to when item is ready for delivery – “completion rate”

• Goal

• Fastest possible average time of delivery• Not as concerned about a single item as with overall throughput

• Method

• Reduce Wait Times• Largest contributor to slow cycle times


14

Little’s Law and Arrivals

L = λ W

Average number of items in a system

Average wait time in the system for an item

Average arrival rate• Assumptions:• Stable system (stationary processes)• Long Running Averages• Consistent Units


15

Little’s Law Restated for Cycle Time

WIP / Throughput = Cycle Time

100 projects 10 projects/week 10 weeks



• Little’s Law• Average Cycle Time = Average WIP / Average Throughput

• Ways to improve Cycle Time (aka System Performance)• Increase Throughput• Decrease WIP


16

Wait Time Based on Utilization – Low Variability

Wait time at 95% is 25x greater than at 75%


17

Wait Time with Variability


18

Ways to Reduce Cycle Time

• Change the way work arrives• Example: Lights at on-ramps to busy freeways

• Reduce Variability

• Change the way work is processed• Example: High Occupancy/Carpool (HOV) Lanes, DCD

Intersections, Roundabouts

• Modify batch size to create a steady rate of service

• Theory of Constraints – Find and fix bottlenecks• Do not fix other areas as it will not increase throughput and is waste

• Eliminate Waste


19

Theory of Constraints – Smooth Flow

Team

2. Fix bottleneck

1. Reduce intake

4. Fix nextGoal

Problem

Strategy

3. Increase intake

Adapted from Henrik Kniberg


20

Suboptimization

Specialist 2Specialist 1 Specialist 3

Specialist 2

Specialist 1

Specialist 3

January February March April May June July

6 months

3 months

Done!

Done!

We’re a lot faster!

I’m a bitslower

We’re slow!I’m fast!



21

Kanban Core Principles

• Visualize the workflow

• Limit WIP (work in progress)

• Manage Flow(measure and optimize)

• Make Process Policies Explicit

• Implement Feedback Loops

• Improve Collaboratively (using models)

To do Dev

Release

FH C

I

2Test

35Done!3

D

GJ

K

EA

B

FLOW

“Don’t build features that nobody needs right now. Don’t write more specs than you can code. Don’t write more code than you can test. Don’t test more code than you can deploy” – Corey Ladas


22Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

To Do

Build

Test

Release

Done

Cumulative Flow Diagram

Cycle Time

Lead Time

WIP

Arrival Rate

Completion Rate

Rem

ainin

g W

ork

Backlo

g


23

Combining Scrum and Kanban Boards

• Use Kanban for end to end workflow

• Use Scrum for development team

Cards are Stories or Epics

Cards are Tasks


24

Economics of Fast Feedback

• Scenario: 2 digit lottery with $1.00 ticket price and $100 payout

• Options:• Purchase both digits immediately for $1

• Purchase one digit for $.50 and only purchase second for $.50 if first matches

Pay $1

Pay out = $0

Pay out = $100

Expected net gain = $0

99%

1%

Pay $.50

Pay out = $0

Pay $.50

90%

10%

Pay out = $0

Pay out = $100

9%

1%

Expected net gain = $45

Spend $100 to get $100

Spend $55 to get $100

Adapted from Don Reinertsen


25

So now what???


26

Value Stream Mapping – Video Game

DraftConcept

Pres.Assign Team

Graphics Design

Sound Design

DevIntegr. & Deploy

2d 1m

4h

6m

8

Game backlog

1w 6m 6m

15

Design-readygames

12

Production-readygames

1m 3w 3m(1m+2m)

3w2h 1d

3 m value added time

25 m cycle time= 12%

Process cycle efficiency

Games out of date Missed market windows Demotivated teams Overhead costs



27

Waste, Flow and Value

• Lean’s primary objective is commonly equated to eliminating Waste

• The true end goal is to deliver Value• Flow and Waste Elimination are tools to meet that goal

• Value trumps Flow• We may interrupt overall flow to deliver faster on a specific high

value work item• Expedite policies• Class of Service policies• Defect Management policies

• Flow trumps Waste Elimination• There are times when we purposely introduce “waste” to

improve flow• Buffers and Queues


28

How to Focus on Delivery

• Determine how your team delivers Value to the Client

• Tool: Value Stream Mapping

• Synchronize work with the entire delivery stream

• Tool: Value Stream Mapping and Kanban

• Determine your Team speed limit

• Avoid over commitment and high congestion

• Team assigned projects/capabilities, not individually assigned

• Tool: Kanban and WIP Limits

• Find the bottleneck(s)

• Ensure the bottleneck is never “starved”

• Tool: Kanban with a Buffer column before the bottleneck

• Tool: “Done” queues to show where work is stuck


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• Decompose all work to small batch sizes

• Tool: Epics, User Stories and Tasks

• Tool: Fast Feedback loops

• Slow Down to Speed Up

• Eliminate/Reduce stops and starts

• Avoid Suboptimization

• Tool: Agile Continuous Planning, Cross-Functional Training

• Make all work visible

• Tool: Kanban/Scrum boards

• Control the Input Queue

• Tool: Kanban, Keep teams together, Prioritization


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• Understand and plan for variability with each project

• Tool: Definition of Done in Kanban columns

• Tool: Scatterplots and Monte Carlo Simulations

• Measure and Optimize Flow

• Tool: Cumulative Flow Diagrams

• Tool: Create Service Level Agreements (SLAs)


31

Q&A


32

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kcdc 2015 slow down to speed up

Software

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terrible throughput

road utilization

cost option

throughput size matters

vs flow