keep calm and stay invested: ifast india market outlook 2018€¦ · lets take a quick look at the...

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Keep Calm and Stay Invested: iFAST India Market Outlook 2018

Author: iFAST Research Team

January 24, 2018

The bulls on Dalal Street had a proverbial windfall in 2017 with the Indian market being one of the best performing global markets after China and South Korea

(Source: iFAST Platform). We feel investor enthusiasm showed continued faith in the economic reforms being unleashed in India, despite the expected short term

blips in growth. The barely checked northward movement of the market defied expectations, as well as any attempts by traders to time the markets.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

China (HS Mainland

100)

South Korea

(KOSPI)

India (SENSEX)

Hong Kong (HSI)

Singapore (STI)

Brazil (IBOV)

Taiwan (Taiwan

Weighted)

Thailand (SET

Index)

Japan (Nikkei

225)

Europe (Stoxx 600)

Malaysia (KLCI)

Indonesia (JCI)

USA (S&P 500)

Australia (S&P/ASX

200)

30.09% 28.47% 27.91%

26.79%

20.11% 19.72% 17.95% 17.51%

15.91% 15.29% 13.58%

12.31% 12.17%

8.84%

Global Indices for 2017

Source: Bloomberg, iFAST Compilations

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The year 2016 ended with the bellwether S&P BSE Sensex closing at 26,626 levels. The index touched an all time high of 34,057 on December 29, 2017, registering

a growth of 27.91%. Domestic indices like the S&P BSE SmallCap Index and the S&P BSE MidCap Index were on fire and delivered 59.64% and 48.13% during the

year. Valuations went overboard and investors became jittery about the expensive nature of Indian markets.

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

S&P BSE Sensex Nifty 50 S&P BSE MID CAP S&P BSE SMALL CAP

27.91% 28.65%

48.13%

59.64%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

S&P BSE Realty

S&P BSE Consumer Durables

S&P BSE Metal

S&P BSE Capital Goods

S&P BSE Bankex

S&P BSE Oil & Gas

S&P BSE Auto

S&P BSE FMCG

S&P BSE Power

S&P BSE TECK

S&P BSE IT S&P BSE Healthcare

106.36% 101.92%

47.78% 40.03% 39.08%

34.00% 32.06% 31.54%

19.83% 16.55% 10.83%

0.49%


Domestic Indices for 2017

Sectoral Indices for 2017


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The leading question asked by investors through the year was, “Is India still an attractive investment opportunity?” At the time of releasing our market outlook for

2017 titled “India Strategy 2017: Favourable Tailwinds Continue for a Substantial Growth Rate” in March, the country and global investors were waiting with

bated breath for the outcome of the election in Uttar Pradesh (UP), the largest Indian state. The results were expected to be a barometer of the central

government’s strength in the parliament and thus an indicator for the continuation of economic reforms. Our outlook, however, had concluded that:

“…regardless of the outcome of the election, the central government will manage to implement its most crucial reforms. The passage of the Goods and Services

Tax (GST) Bill and surviving the demonetization drive implies that the government will continue to enjoy stable support of the country. However, India is definitely

not going to be insulated from the uncertainties that are going to be caused by rising oil prices, FED rate hikes, strengthening of economies like US and China, and

FII outflows. All these uncertainties will make the market volatile in the short term and will likely stress investors and their portfolios. The long term story stays

intact, though, as we believe that the earnings of India Inc. will improve, which in turn, will see the economy growing at more than 7%.

Despite chill winds blowing from within and outside the country, however, the market refused to lose steam through the year as our domestic investors went on

a shopping spree. FIIs remained cautious with valuations moving up without improvement in the earnings cycle of India Inc.

A big factor in these unprecedented flows was the increased penetration of mutual funds in the country. The whole of India was singing “Mutual Funds Sahi Hai ”,

and we even had investors share stories of school children prodding their parents to start investing in mutual funds so that they could go for annual vacations or

higher education. Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) became the norm for our investors as they moved surplus funds away from traditional investment options

like fixed deposits (FDs), real estate and even gold. The sharply escalating flows into mutual funds (the average monthly SIP inflows were INR 4,957 crore in 2017)

led to a few of our recommended funds in the mid and small cap categories being closed for transactions.

While the equity market was euphoric, the bond market wore a gloomy look and was under stress. We saw the 10 year yield on government securities (G-Sec),

considered to be the best barometer for the bond market, move from 6.52% on December 30, 2016 to 7.33% as on December 29, 2017. Investors wondered

whether it would have been better to stick with Fixed Deposits or even try their luck in stocks. The truth is, however, that a conservative investor with no appetite

for the volatilities of the equity market would have had a very anxious 2017, despite appearances. This is why we never recommend selecting investments based

on market performance and timing. Investments, be it equity or debt, should only depend on goals, investment horizon and risk appetite.

http://www.mutualfundssahihai.com/index.php/en/rs-500-se-toh-sirf-shuruwaat-hai

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10 Year G-Sec Yield for 2017

Market Drivers 2017: Macroeconomic, Political and Social

Let’s take a quick look at the reasons behind the outperformance and underperformance of the two markets in 2017 before we frame our outlook for the new

year.

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7

7.2

7.4

7.6

Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17


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Equity Market

The year started on a good note with the Union Budget, presented on February 1 maintaining status quo on Long Term Capital Gains Tax on equities, which was

one of the biggest worries of market participants. Dalal Street partied hard in March when BJP won the majority in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in India. The

implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), the biggest tax reform of India, on the stipulated date - July 1 - added confidence in government execution.

Throughout 2017, we saw a very proactive RBI and the Government of India (GOI) working together to solve India’s ‘Twin Balance Sheet Problem’, a term used to

describe the situation wherein both banks and corporates are under stress. While the RBI went out of its way to clean up the Indian banking system by

implementing the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance 2017, GOI decided to support the banks with a huge recapitalization package amounting to INR

2.11 lakh crore. The excitement on Dalal Street continued with India’s position in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business index improving from 130 to 100, and

Moody’s decision to upgrade India’s Government Bond rating from Baa3 to Baa2, changing the outlook from positive to stable.

If the Uttar Pradesh election stressed investors in March, then all eyes were on the Gujarat election towards the end of the year. The ruling party’s win in Modi’s

home turf added to the positive vibes among market participants as every victory for the ruling party means lesser resistance from the opposition in the Upper

House of Parliament to reform measures.

There were some rough patches during the year as well: the RBI changing its monetary policy stance from accommodative to neutral, inflation moving above the

4% target set by RBI, soaring oil prices, worries on the possibility of GOI missing the fiscal deficit target of FY18 and the slowing growth momentum of the

economy. In addition to this, tensions along the Indian borders, the geo-political tensions between US and North Korea and the decision of the US FED to raise

rates and shrink the size of the balance sheet also kept the markets on tenterhooks for some time.

Debt Market

The performance of the debt market was disappointing throughout 2017. After the budget for 2017-18 was presented, the bond market applauded the

government’s resolve to maintain fiscal discipline and increase public expenditure while reducing net market borrowing. This was short lived, however, as the

central bank went on to change the monetary policy stance from accommodative to neutral in the Sixth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review 2016-17 held in

February, citing upside risks to inflation. Throughout the rest of the year, the tone in RBI’s policy review documents remained hawkish as it continued to have

concerns about inflation and the GOI missing the fiscal deficit target of FY18. The fears seemed well founded as inflation moved from a 6-year low of 1.56% in

June, to 5.21% in December, while the GOI decided to go ahead and borrow an additional INR 50,000 crore for FY18. (On January 17, 2018, GOI announced that it

would now only borrow INR 20,000 crore instead of INR 50,000 crore.)

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Mint street also sent out some mixed signals after changing the monetary policy stance to neutral. In the First Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review 2017-18 held in

the first week of April, RBI maintained status quo on rates, while the minutes of the meeting released later in the month showed that a member had actually

suggested a 25 bps increase in policy rates to achieve the inflation target of 4%. In the Third Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review 2017-18 held in August, RBI then

went onto reduce the policy rate by 25 bps, continuing to maintain a neutral stance. The reason given for this reduction was that the upside risks to inflation had

either reduced or not materialized, while the tone in the document continued to remain hawkish.

The implementation of Farm Loan Waivers, states’ implementation of the Salary and Allowances award, as well as rising international oil prices also made the

central bankers restless. RBI was also very proactive in raising their voice about the deteriorating investment climate in the country. In the Fourth Bi-Monthly

Monetary Policy Review 2017-18 held in October, RBI went onto state “The MPC reiterated that it is imperative to reinvigorate investment activity which, in

turn, would revive the demand for bank credit by industry as existing capacities get utilised and the requirements of new capacity open up to be financed.

Recapitalising public sector banks adequately will ensure that credit flows to the productive sectors are not impeded and growth impulses not restrained”.

When the recapitalization package was announced, it seemed like GOI had acted on RBI’s advice and we saw the year ending with the RBI endorsing the recent

reform measures, which are expected to have a positive impact on growth prospects in the near future.

As we wrote in our note “Is the Elephant finally slowing down? India Macroeconomic Review Q2 2017-18, ”The biggest positive that we see for the country is a

united North Block and Mint Street working together to resolve one of the biggest issues that is slowing down the growth momentum of the economy: stressed

assets of the banking system”.

Outlook 2018

As we write this note, the equity market is touching all time highs and any announcement by India’s finance minister continues to lead to high spirits in the

market. On the other hand, international oil prices are moving up, inflation is showing a tendency to move up, and GOI is expected to increase public expenditure

– all of this is going to cause some stress on the fiscal front. The tone from Mint Street indicates that interest rates could move up further from here. The currency

has started showing volatility and the irony is that the market refuses to shy away from touching new peaks. Our Fund Managers are treading cautiously and

advising investors to moderate their return expectation for 2018.

We highlight three parameters that our investors can use to make better sense of market movements in the coming months: valuation, inflows and global

indicators. We follow that up with our specific recommendations for equity and debt investors.

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Valuation

The rise and rise of the Indian markets has made both, global and domestic investors worried about its expensive valuations. In May 2014, we had predicted that

the P/E for 2016-17 would be 11.72X, while we actually ended the year with a P/E of 22X. On the other hand,the P/E as on December 29,2017 stood at 24X. The

year defied all estimates and expectations, with the surge in domestic investor flows working as the ‘X’ factor that our prediction models had not accounted for.

Going forward, from a valuation and earnings point of view, the revival of India’s credit growth and economic growth are vital concerns. In the article, “Is the

Elephant finally slowing down? India Macroeconomic Review Q2 2017-18, we had written that “A growing economy like India should see its credit growth

soaring, which is very essential to maintain the growth momentum of the economy. We saw the non-food bank credit growth moving down from 20.7% in 2010-

11 to 8.4% in 2016-17, which has been a cause of concern for the policy makers in the country”.

The recent projects undertaken by GOI in infrastructure along with the huge recapitalization package for PSBs are steps in the right direction. In addition to this,

the measures undertaken by RBI to clean up the banking system, like the enactment of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 along with Asset Quality

Review and Additional Disclosure Requirements should revive growth in these two crucial sectors. This revival is essential for the economy to grow faster than 8%.

According to consensus estimates as on December 29, 2017, the estimated P/E ratios for India’s stock market (Sensex) are 22.86X, 17.94X and 14.84X for FY18,

FY19 and FY20 respectively. Estimated earnings growth is 13.30%, 27.44% and 20.89% for FY18, FY19 and FY20 respectively.

Inflows

Reform measures like demonetization and GST were meant to crack down the parallel economy and also create an efficient tax system that will not just boost

revenues and investment but even the overall growth of the economy. However, we believe that the most immediate impact of these reforms has been the

movement of savings from physical assets to financial assets, along with the formalization of the economy. This could also be cited as one of the reasons for the

huge flows of investor surplus into equity markets during 2017.

The markets thus saw unprecedented flows in 2017 - and responded in kind. First time investors who have seen bumper returns in the last year should

remember, however, that markets are cyclical, and a downturn is inevitable. We advise investors to stay away from churning their portfolios based on market

movements. We expect the market to react to various reform measures undertaken by GOI in the different sectors; however, reading the nuances of what this

means for specific stocks is a job best left to Fund Managers who will re-define their investment strategies depending upon the prevailing macro-economic

environment.

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We expect inflows in equities to continue in the coming year as well on account of the uncertainty in physical investment options like gold and real estate, and

the moderate returns expected from traditional investments like small savings schemes, provident funds and bank FDs. We believe that this liquidity will bring

stability to the market, buffering it to some degree against global movements.

Category Dec 2017 Dec 2016 Change (%)

INCOME 8,08,252 7,48,071 8.04

INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT 2,276 1,856 22.63

EQUITY 6,90,153 4,19,562 64.49

BALANCED 1,67,385 64,954 157.7

LIQUID 2,86,305 3,08,731 -7.26

GILT 14,593 16,937 -13.84

ELSS 80,981 50,113 61.6

GOLD ETF 4,855 5,519 -12.03

OTHER ETFs 70,353 28,834 143.99

FOF OVERSEAS 1,512 1,760 -14.09

TOTAL 2,126,665 1,646,337 29.18

Source: AMFI, iFAST Compilations

Mutual Funds Assets Under Management - Category Wise (INR in Crore)

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Global Indicators

2017 has proved to the world that if the world market sneezes India will not come down with flu anymore. However, as much as our domestic inflows will buffer

the markets from changes in foreign fund flows, the changing global economic climate demands a change in the way we manage our investments as well. We

have summarized our global desk’s outlook on the global economy for 2018 here:

“With leading indicators across the world suggesting expansion and hard data catching up, we expect corporate earnings growth to strengthen in 2018, lending

support to equity markets moving forward. As we head into 2018, we continue to hold our conviction on Asia ex-Japan equities whilst believing that developed

markets would still be necessary for portfolio diversification although we advocate going underweight on the region. Additionally, we have noticed that following

strong returns for both stock and bond markets over the past few years, investors have gravitated towards passively-managed styles of investing and instruments

such as index and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, with bond yields still at relatively low levels and equity markets valued richer moving into 2018, we

think that actively-managed vehicles are appropriate, with active stock pickers able to underweight or shun expensive stocks for more attractively-valued ones,

while an era of rising interest rates coupled with historically-low rates means credit selection, flexible positioning and currency expertise will aid in driving overall

fixed income returns to a greater extent. Do not underestimate the value of active management”!

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

MF Inflows via the SIP route (INR in Crore)

Source: AMFI, iFAST Compilations

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We echo the view of our Global Desk on the relevance of continuing to include actively managed funds in Indian portfolios as well. A combination of actively

managed funds and ETFs will be the way forward for Indian investors in the long term.

Recommendations for 2018: Equity and Debt

Our faith in equities as an apt investment opportunity for long term investors continues, and we would view any correction as an opportunity to enter the

market. In 2011, when we recommended exposure into mid/small cap funds, the mid cap index was trading at a discount to large caps. As we write this note,

mid/small cap valuations are peaking, but this category continues to find a place in our recommended portfolios as we believe that India is a stock picker’s

market. Mid/small cap funds use purely bottom up strategies to pick un-favoured stocks that show clear earnings visibility and the capability to become large

caps in future. Instead of focusing on expensive valuations, iFAST Research continues to recommend actively managed funds across the market capitalization

spectrum, allowing investors to bet on fundamentally strong companies/sectors on the path to recovery. We also like funds whose focus themes are in line

with those at North Block.

Fixed income investors should not follow the temptation to increase their exposure into equities. If their investment goals and risk appetite warrant a larger

component of fixed income, they should persevere with that. We are of the belief that the RBI will either maintain status quo or increase rates if oil prices or

currency decide to play spoilsport in 2018. Investors across risk profiles can continue to take an exposure into ultra short term funds or short term funds, while

our moderately aggressive and aggressive investors can explore dynamic bond funds.

We would like to conclude the note with our usual recommendation:

“Stay calm while the markets go slant and the very same market will reward you for your patience”.

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Category

Recommended Funds for 2017 Benchmark Fund

Performance Benchmark

Performance

Equity - Large cap

ICICI PRUDENTIAL FOCUSED BLUECHIP EQUITY FUND Nifty 50 32.75% 28.65%

ADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE FRONTLINE EQUITY FUND S&P BSE 200 30.58% 33.26%

RELIANCE TOP 200 FUND S&P BSE 200 38.42% 33.26%

KOTAK 50 Nifty 50 29.18% 28.65%

SBI BLUE CHIP FUND S&P BSE 100 30.23% 31.52%

BNP PARIBAS EQUITY FUND Nifty 50 37.05% 28.65%

Equity - Midcap & Small Cap

MIRAE ASSET EMERGING BLUECHIP FUND Nifty Free Float Midcap 100 49.01% 47.26%

CANARA ROBECO EMERGING EQUITIES Nifty Free Float Midcap 100 52.05% 47.26%

SBI MAGNUM MIDCAP FUND Nifty Midsmall 400 Index 33.49% N/A

KOTAK EMERGING EQUITY S & P BSE Mid Small Cap Index 43.00% 54.62%

FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA FUND Nifty 500 39.70% 35.91%

RELIANCE SMALL CAP FUND S&P BSE Small-Cap 62.97% 59.64%

DSP BLACKROCK MICRO CAP FUND S&P BSE Small-Cap 42.77% 59.64%

Equity - Multi cap

ADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE ADVANTAGE FUND S&P BSE 200 41.85% 33.26%

IDFC PREMIER EQUITY FUND S&P BSE 500 38.04% 35.94%

KOTAK SELECT FOCUS FUND Nifty 200 34.31% 33.43%

FRANKLIN INDIA HIGH GROWTH COMPANIES FUND Nifty 500 37.44% 35.91%

SBI EMERGING BUSINESSES FUND S&P BSE 500 44.73% 35.94%

ICICI PRUDENTIAL VALUE DISCOVERY FUND S&P BSE 500 23.82% 35.94%

Equity - Contra & Value L&T INDIA VALUE FUND S&P BSE 200 41.26% 33.26%

Equity - Dividend Yield TATA DIVIDEND YIELD FUND Nifty 500 27.58% 35.91%

Performance of our Recommended Funds in 2017

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Category



Performance

Equity - ELSS

FRANKLIN INDIA TAXSHIELD Nifty 500 29.11% 35.91%

AXIS LONG TERM EQUITY FUND S&P BSE 200 37.44% 33.26%

ICICI PRUDENTIAL LONG TERM EQUITY FUND (TAX SAVING) Nifty 500 26.00% 35.91%

RELIANCE TAX SAVER (ELSS) FUND S&P BSE 100 46.04% 31.52%

TATA INDIA TAX SAVINGS FUND S&P BSE Sensex 46.00% 27.91%

DSP BLACKROCK TAX SAVER FUND Nifty 500 36.28% 35.91%

Equity - Global ICICI PRUDENTIAL GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY FUND MSCI World - Net Return Index 7.15% N/A FRANKLIN INDIA FEEDER - FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES FUND Russell 3000 growth Index 18.12% N/A

Equity - Banking ICICI PRUDENTIAL BANKING & FINANCIAL SERVICES FUND Nifty Financial Service 45.05% 41.42%

Equity - Pharmaceuticals SBI PHARMA FUND S&P BSE Healthcare 2.05% 0.49%

Equity - Infrastructure CANARA ROBECO INFRASTRUCTURE S&P BSE 100 40.23% 31.52% KOTAK INFRASTRUCTURE & ECONOMIC REFORM FUND S&P BSE 100 45.27% 31.52%

Equity - FMCG SBI FMCG FUND

S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods 53.10% 31.54%

Equity - Technology ICICI PRUDENTIAL TECHNOLOGY FUND S&P BSE Information Technology 19.80% 10.83%

Source: NAV India, iFAST Compilations

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Category



Performance

Debt - Short Term

KOTAK INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FUND Crisil Short-Term Bond Fund Index 6.56% 6.03%

HDFC REGULAR SAVINGS FUND Crisil Short-Term Bond Fund Index 6.44% 6.03%

ADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITIES FUND Crisil AA Short Term Bond Fund Index 5.60% N/A

DSP BLACKROCK INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FUND

50% of CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund

Index + 50% of CRISIL Composite

Bond Fund Index 6.45% 5.36%

Debt - Dynamic Bond Fund

ADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE DYNAMIC BOND FUND Crisil Short-Term Bond Fund Index 2.16% 6.03%

UTI DYNAMIC BOND FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 4.16% 4.69%

TATA DYNAMIC BOND FUND I-Sec Composite Index 3.90% N/A

DSP BLACKROCK STRATEGIC BOND FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 1.84% 4.69%

Debt - Income

FRANKLIN INDIA INCOME BUILDER ACCOUNT Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 7.67% 4.69%

ICICI PRUDENTIAL LONG TERM PLAN Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 5.10% 4.69%

AXIS REGULAR SAVINGS FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 7.49% 4.69%

TATA LONG TERM DEBT FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 4.05% 4.69%

Debt - Gilt (Long Term)

IDFC GOVERNMENT SECURITIES FUND-PROVIDENT FUND PLAN I-Sec Composite Index 3.85% N/A

SBI MAGNUM GILT FUND - LONG TERM PLAN I-Sec Li-BEX 3.87% N/A

Debt - Corporate Bond Fund SBI CORPORATE BOND FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 6.89% 4.69%


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Category



Performance

Hybrid - Balanced

ICICI PRUDENTIAL BALANCED FUND

CRISIL Balanced Fund - Aggressive

Index 24.78% 19.82%

SBI MAGNUM BALANCED FUND


Index 27.66% 19.82%

TATA BALANCED FUND


Index 19.41% 19.82%

Hybrid - MIP

BIRLA SUN LIFE MIP II - WEALTH 25 PLAN Crisil MIP Blended Index 15.52% 8.04%

ICICI PRUDENTIAL MIP 25 Crisil MIP Blended Index 12.92% 8.04%


N/A - Data Not Available.

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Performance of our Recommended Portfolios in 2017

Portfolio

Name

Portfolio CAGR

Since Inception

(February 2010)

Returns (November 30, 2016 to December 31, 2017)

Portfolio Benchmark

Conservative 9.12% 6.96% 10.01%

Moderately Conservative 10.16% 12.89% 18.36%

Balanced 11.61% 19.99% 23.38%

Moderately Aggressive 14.48% 28.60% 26.72%

Aggressive 15.99% 33.12% 29.12%

Moderately Aggressive (Global) 12.98% 23.88% 15.83%

Aggressive (Global) 13.74% 27.07% 16.23%

We revamped our Recommended Portfolios on November 30, 2016.

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Top & Bottom Performing Equity Funds in 2017


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Top & Bottom Performing Debt & Hybrid Funds in 2017


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Disclaimer

iFAST and/or its content and research team's licensed representatives may own or have positions in the mutual funds of any of the Asset Management Company mentioned or

referred to in the article, and may from time to time add or dispose of, or be materially interested in any such. This article is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the

subscription, purchase or sale of any mutual fund. No investment decision should be taken without first viewing a mutual fund's scheme information document including statement of

additional information. Any advice herein is made on a general basis and does not take into account the specific investment objectives of the specific person or group of persons.

Investors should seek for professional investment, tax, and legal advice before making an investment or any other decision. Past performance and any forecast is not necessarily

indicative of the future or likely performance of the mutual fund. The value of mutual funds and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Opinions expressed herein are subject to

change without notice. Please read our disclaimer on the website.

keep calm and stay invested: ifast india market outlook 2018€¦ · lets take a quick look at the...

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