keeping ecology straight in a complex world · keeping ecology straight in a complex world ... •...

Keeping ecology straight in a complex world

Narrative and levels of analysis

Timothy Allen

Insufficient Technology

Sufficient Technologymaximum extraction

Resourcedepleted

Time

Return

Average Return – how much do you get

Marginal Return – how much extra for extra effort

Resource commonly

abandoned here

Time

Benefits of Complexity

Benefits of complexity

Time

Benefits of

Complexity

(Marginal return)

As resource becomes scarce, system switches to somenew resource

Solitary Insects

Colonial Insects

Wood

CoalHoneyFeces, leaves

Lizards, large preyTrees

These we call Low gain

These we callHigh gain

WaveWind Solar

Hydrogen

Industrial Carbon

Imperial taxation

Rape loot and pillage

Agriculture

Hunter / Gatherer

Species lost

Here ?

Physical system

processes

Actual ExternalGradient

Linguistic planning element. Internal to System, external to thermodynamics

Anticipateddecline in

resourcesinfluences

plan

Plan

Flux versus plan, process versus structure

Constraint

If you can seethe dynamicsof the flux you cannot see the constraint

If you can see the constraint you cannot see the dynamics of the fluxHeisenberg Uncertainty

Dominates Under

High gain

Actual ExternalGradient

Dominates Under

Low gain

Anticipateddecline in

resourcesinfluences

plan

Plan

High Gain Low gain

• Steep gradient of fuel inputs. Ready for use

• Shallow gradient poor inputs needs refining.

On shallow gradients, systems are less predictable. They have a variety of plans for getting the most out of resources.

On steep gradients the resource has been concentrated by some external process, the system just uses it according to simple, predictable energetics.

Nuclear power is high or low gain, it depends on system boundary

= high gain

+ + = low gain

High Gain Low gain

• Steep gradient of fuel inputs. Ready for use.

• Is ephemeral.• Remains local in

space.


• Last a long time• Expands across

space.

• Loot and pillage• Focus on gold in cities

• Taxation in over 30 units • Spread; fill in space

Roman Republic Roman Empire

1st Century BC

1st Century AD

High Gain Low gain

• Steep gradient of fuel inputs. Ready for use.


space.• Self organizes from

within.


• Lasts a long time.• Expands across

space.• Organized by external

design elements.

High Gain Low gain

• Steep gradient of fuel inputs. Ready for use


space.• Self organizes from

within.• Adds components to

top of hierarchy.


• Lasts a long time.• Expands across

space.• Organized by external

design elements.• Make middle of

hierarchy more dense

German KingdomRoman Province emerges as new structure

Gold has been looted, so how to pay for the garrison?

Not much in a peasant, but capture sunshine real-time in taxed agriculture.

High gain Low gain

• Sucks up resources as needed.

• Increases efficiency.

High gain Low gain


• Impressive in energy capture.

• Increased efficiency

• Impressive high organization.

High gain Low gain


• Impressive in energy capture.

• Can only be managed from context because of self-repair.

• Increases efficiency,


• Manage by manipulating the parts. No self repair.

Wrong narrative. Low gain story in a high gain setting

Strong gradients can make bad things livable unexpectedly. You cannot plan.

• Somalia had a drought• Food organizations got food to Mogodishu airport,

good?

Strong gradients can make bad things livable unexpectedly. You cannot plan.

• Warlords love famine. It gives them control, Bad

• Somalia had a drought• Food organizations got food to Mogodishu airport

• Warlords emerge on gradient of donated food, Bad

Strong gradients make structure emerge unexpectedly.

• Somalia had a drought• Food organizations got food to Mogodishu airport,

good?• Warlords love famine. It gives them control,

• Warlords emerge on gradient of donated food, Bad

• Drought is over, but warlords steal farmers food, Bad

• Eventually warlords are weakened by military, Good

Food aid keeps prices lowso farmers don’t plant, Bad

High gain Low gain• Increases dissipation

as needed.• Impressive in energy

capture.• Can only be managed

from context because of self-repair.

• If not Caesar, then someone else

• Increased efficiency, greater degradation.


• Manage by manipulating the parts. No self repair.

• Lower energy means less likely happening

Evolutionary time

Benefits of Complexity

Food Ants

Fungus farmers

ANTS

Feces& flowers Leaf cutting

ATTINES

ATTASmall vs Mature Colony

Lower attinesor

It depends!

High gain Collapse

Upper level not serviced

Organization fails at

Low level

Low gain

High gain Run out of

fuel

Run out offuel

No change in efficiency

Quality resourcedepleted

Diffuse resourcenot processed

Low gain collapse occurs as upperlevel runs out offuel because of failure to processand hand refined material to the top.

Even after collapsecoded elements

persist as narratives in

memory

High gain also failsto refine low grade material so collapseis for the same reason.

Time

Organization &

Benefits of

Complexity(Marginal return)

Embodied in the new upperlevel structure is previous organization filtered through individuals who survived all previous collapses

Memory changes from inertial tocoded myths and stories and back

Rome

Dark Ages

Italian

RennaissanceVictorian

Britain

The EU

Suez crisis

Peaks are inertial dynamic functioning, as thermodynamics moves to hold structure on course. Hollows are times of collapse when memory survives coded in individuals.

The EU is the memory of Rome, a united Europe never completely forgotten

Coded memory

Coded memory

Coded memory

Inertial memory

Inertial memory

Inertial memoryInertial

memory

Celtic Britain

= Work achieved throughput x quality

Low quality effluent

New very lowquality effluent

work

work

More inputgets more work doneby morethroughput

Less inputbut still more work because of moredegradationwith the samethroughput

Less workdone by lessdegradation More work

done by moredegradation

High gain uses more input Low gain gets more efficient

High quality inputHigh quality input

But the inefficient system is not stuck in limited work potential

= change in quality betweeninput and output

= Work achieved throughput x quality


Very lowquality effluent

work

work

More inputgets more work doneby morethroughput

More workdone by moredegradation

The mass of gold as isolated molecules

Gold nuggets

FortKnox

Gold dust

Size of the concentration of the resource

Total mass

of material

High quality input

Inefficient degradation process


High quality input

New efficientdegradation process

New very lowquality effluent

Effluent becomes

Poor quality resource looks good

Impossible material can become a resource

Inefficient High Gain System Efficient Low Gain System

resource

Ch1 Fig 1

High qualityInputs under High gain

Low quality spent fuel

Degradation of resource under high gain

Deeper degradationof spent fuel under low gain

Lower quality Inputs under low gain aremore abundant

In the move from high to low gain,spent fuel is degraded deeper.

Often that allows Lower quality inputs to be used. Lowerquality is more abundant givingeconomies of scale

Deeper low gain

Economy of scale

Low gain

Yes!OK

Regular low gain increased size

If resource use leaves behind lower quality resource the system cannot use it simply collapses. Alternatively the system may gather the low quality material and refine it into a workable fuel. There is more low quality material globally, so the system then gets bigger under the switch to low gain.

High gain Collapse

Deeper low gain

Economy of scale

Low gain

High gain

Run out of resource

Yes! OK

No change in efficiency

High qualityInputs under High gain

Low qualityoutputs

Under low gain withdiminishing returns the system still uses the same high quality inputs.For instance we may still tax peasants but need more funds.

Blue line get economies of scale and so will increase size of system since lower quality inputs are more abundant

The systemmust degrade deeper (tax harder) to carry greater overhead costs.Decline in marginal return.

Since the quality of inputs remains the same there is no globalincrease in abundance. As a result the increased work is not accompaniedby economies of scaleto pay for the extra effort.

Resilience is eroded by the absence of scaling benefits (black bracket). The system must do more work simply to stay in business.

Deeper low gain

Degrade deeper

Low gain

Less resilience.Slack disappears

Heavy lifting, more

efficiency

Increased control

complexification

But cannot lower quality

of inputs

No economyof scale

Deeper low gain

Degrade deeper

Low gain

Less resilience. Slack disappears

Heavy lifting, more

efficiency

Increased control

complexification

But do not lower quality

of inputs

No economyof scale

Smaller, more diffuse

SimplifyLower cost of complication

Deeper low gain

Economy of scale

Low gain

Yes!OK


High gain Collapse

Deeper low gain

Cannot continue

Economy of scale

Low gain

Run out ofResourceYes!

OK


Collapse

High gain Collapse

Deeper low gain

Cannot continue

Economy of scale

Low gain


OK

Less resilience.Slack disappears

Heavy lifting, more

efficiency


Increased control

No !More cost of processing

complexification

Collapse

High gain Collapse

Deeper low gain

Cannot continue

Economy of scale

Low gain


OK

Cut slack less resilience

Heavy lifting, more

efficiency


Increased control

SimplifyLower cost of complication No !

More cost of processing

complexification

Collapse









Resource gets

used up

Slope (tendency of systemto move downhillas resources

get used)

Complicatedness

High gain collapse

course

correction

Prudent course

Good WoodBad Wood 40%

Soil Feeding. 5% Colonies down to 20 very large individuals mostly outside the colony. Memory of colony function now resides in individuals

Termite Evolution

Change in strategy

low gain collapse

Soil eaters live in the tropics. They have insufficient capital to survive purturbationssuch as winter

Anticipation

Local / Global

High gain adaptive peak

High gain collapse

HIAmount of adequate resource

Amount ofadequate resource

Previous figure showing an adaptive surface in switch from high to low gain.

Low gain adaptive

peak

LO

Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HI

LO

Amount of adequate resource


If a naïve system enters the arena it must shed old adaptations to focus on plentiful local high gain resource.

Entry point Of naïve systemWith adaptations An old situation.

Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HI

LO



As local quality resource is plucked the ratio of quantity of local to global decreases. There is more global but it is lower quality. The ratio first loses local quality, but then gets smaller due to Increases in quantity of usable but poor resource.

The concept of low hangingfruit from economics is heregeneralized to a dynamic process.We work up to higher fruit that is still the lowest to be had.

Resource gets

used up

Slope (tendency of systemto move downhill

as resources get used)

Complicatedness

High gain collapse

Prudent course

low gain collapse

course

correction

Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HI

LO



Eventual energetic constraint on low gain given super-low gain smaller system

Resource gets

used up



Complicatedness

High gain collapse

Prudent course

low gain collapse

course

correction

Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HI

LO



Prudent path is never taken because it goes through a valley of maladaptation.

Resource gets

used up



Complicatedness

High gain collapse

Prudent course

low gain collapse

course

correction

Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HI

LO



As local quality declines adaptations lead to the low gain adaptive peak.

Anticipation Local / Global

High gain collapse

Entry pointof naive system

HI

Abandons old adaptations

High gain adaptive peak

Resource quality declines

Moves up to low gain

adaptive peak

Low gain collapse


Anticipation Local / Global

High gain collapse

HI High gain adaptive peak

Resource quality declines

Super low gain capped by energetics

Moves up to low gain

adaptive peak

Low gain collapse


Low gain efficiently degradesresources but even so can encounter serious limits. As inputs hit extreme low quality,efficiency cannot address the ultimate limit on energy in the resource at a a base level

Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HIAmount of adequate resource


Eventual energetic constraint on low gain puts a cap on size and energy flux as systems are forced to economize to give super-low gain smaller systems

The red arrow is forced by a cap down todecreased complexity even though greater adaptation and deeper control are exerted. The system becomes simpler. The constraints are the ultimate limit in energy to support the system. The low gain peak suffers anexternal limit that efficiency cannot ameliorate without simplification.

Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HI

LO




Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HI

LO



If a naïve system enters the arena it must shed old adaptations to focus on plentiful local high gain resource.

Entry point Of naïve systemWith adaptations An old situation.

System enters raw high gain mode where it grabs easy resources from local hot spots. Such resources are local not global. Soon the best hot spots get used up and the local to global ratio changes

Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HI

LO



As quantity of quality resource declines there is a decision point at which adaptation is made or not. If “not” then soon adaptation becomes impossible because the system cannot go uphill. Collapse follows

Adaptation may allow system to get by with lower quality resource whereupon the system ascends the low gain peak where it is larger and more efficient.

As resources are used under low gain, increases in efficiency allow further adaptation, but in the end the pressure to economize forces decrease in size and complexity, albeit highly efficient.

Anticipation

Local / Global

Resource adequate

High gain collapse

HI

LO




HI

LO High gain collapse

Anticipation

Local toGlobalRatio

Local declines

Globalincrease

Strongest selective pressure

Aerial view of transition from Hi to Lo gain

High Saddle

Niave system sheds irrelevant adaptations

HI


Anticipation

Local toGlobalRatio

Local declines

Globalincrease



High Saddle


Prudent path cannot pass

resource trough

HI


Anticipation

Local toGlobalRatio

Local declines

Globalincrease



High Saddle


Once high gain passes decision point it cannot go

up hill to the saddle

Only high apples left but you don’t have a ladder.

HI


Anticipation

Local toGlobalRatio

Local declines

Globalincrease



High Saddle


Selection takes low gain across the

saddle point

Make a longer ladder

HI


Anticipation

Local toGlobalRatio

Local declines

Globalincrease



High Saddle


Selection takes low gain across the

saddle point

HI

LO

CollapseAnticipation

Local toGlobalRatio

Local declines

Globalincrease


Low gain collapsedue to lost resource

To far down.Not enough Resource to go low gain

The one time To change Course and adapt

No reasonTo be efficient or adapt

No prudenceSince there isNo reason to plan

Jevons’ paradoxmistaken analysis

Jevons’ paradox.Efficiency used To burn gradient

Aerial view showing Low gain collapse and local regions.

Capped by

energetics

Super low gain

squeeze

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