NRC Study:Coal Research and Development to Coal Research and Development to

Support National Energy PolicySupport National Energy Policy

Kentucky Professional Engineers in Mining Seminar

KentuckyGeological SurveyU NIVER SITY O F KENTUC KY

Coal Research and Development to Coal Research and Development to Support National Energy PolicySupport National Energy Policy

Dr. James C. CobbState Geologist and Director

Purpose of the reportThis report focused on the “upstream” side of the coa l industry including: coal reserves, miner health and safety, environmental protection and CO2 management, and mine productivity and optimizing resources.

By 2030 coal production will increase 60 to 70%.

US has more than adequate reserves to accommodate this increase.

Approximately 90 percent of federal R & D goes for “downstream” activities while only 10 percent goes fo r “upstream” activities in the coal cycle.

Source: NRC 2007

U.S. Coal Fuel Cycle

Upstream Downstream

Various sources including Fiscor, 2005

80%

60%

82%

“Downstream” “Upstream”

Distribution of Federal Funding forCoal-Related R & D

40%

20%

0Utilization& CCS

Transport &Transmission

Safety &Health

ReserveAssessment

Environment/Reclamation

Mining &Processing

0.2%1.8%1.9%4.5%

9%

NRC 2007

“Coal will continue to provide a substantial portion of U.S. energy for at least the next severa l decades, a major increase in federal support for coal R & D is needed to ensure that this natural resource is extracted efficiently, safely, and in a n environmentally responsible manner,” says a new congressionally mandated report from the National Research Council. National Research Council.

“Policymakers also need a more accurate assessment of the extent and location of the nation's coal reserves, the report adds.” It recommends an increase of about $144 million annually in new federal funding across a variety of areas.

Source: NRC 2007

•No new mega-agency like Bureau of Mines

•Greatly improved coordination among federal agencies

•Increase research for federal agencies such as:

OSM

NIOSHNIOSH

MSHA

USGS

Others

Findings and Priority Areas-Research Leading to improvements in:

•Mining workforce and education •Assessments of coal reserves•Improvements in coal mining and

processing•Improvements in worker health and

safety•Improvements in environmental

protection

• Carbon dioxide emissions associated with global climate change pose the greatest constraint on future coal utilization.

• Large-scale demonstrations of carbon management technologies —carbon management technologies —especially carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)—are needed to prove the commercial readiness of technologies.

35

30

25

20

U.S. Energy Imports1950 to 2005

15

10

5

0

-51950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

EIA, 2007

35

30

25

20

Historical Predicted

Peak of World Petroleum Production?

15

10

5

01930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

US-48 Europe Russia Other M East Heavy etc Deepwater Polar NGL

Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Group (2004)

Source: The American Magazine, 2007

Platts and American Magazine

The PastThe Past

10.00

9.00

8.00

7.00

6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00

0

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Crude Oil

CoalNatural Gas

Prices for fossilfuels

800

600

400

200

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

East of the Mississippi

West of the Mississippi

Domestic Coal Production in U.S.1950-2005

Source: EIA 2006

Year800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Surface

Underground

Surface and UndergroundCoal Production

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

200,000

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

Number of Mines

Production (millions of short tons)

Number of Miners

Trends for U.S. Coal Production,Mines, and Employment

Source: NMA 2006

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0

The PresentThe Present

25

20

15

23

19

Sources of U.S. Electrical Energy

15

10

5

0

Coal NaturalGas

Crude Oil1NuclearElectricPower

Biomass2

Hydro-electricPower

3

NGPL4

Geothermal,Solar, Wind

19

11

8

3 3 2 1

Source: EIA 2006 and American Magazine, 2007

Recoverable Reserves at Active Mines (RRAM) 18.9 billion tons

Estimated Recoverable Reserves (ERR) 267.6 billion tons

U.S. Coal Resources and Reserves

Source: EIA (2006)

Demonstrated Reserve Base (DRB) 492.9 billion tons

Identified Resources (from Averitt, 1974) 1700.0 billion tons

Total Resources ( above plus undiscovered resources) 4000.0 billion tons

EIA and NRC 2007

The FutureThe FutureCarbon Capture and Carbon Capture and Carbon Capture and Carbon Capture and

Storage (CCS)Storage (CCS)

2007 Special Session on Energy- $5 million for KGS to investigate CO 2 sequestration, EOR

and EGR in Kentucky.

Illinois BasinIllinois Basin Appalachian Appalachian BasinBasin

Cincinnati Cincinnati ArchArchMississippi Mississippi

RiverRiver

Two major basinsTwo major basinsseparated by an arch.separated by an arch.

WestWest EastEastTabb Fault Tabb Fault

SystemSystemLexington Lexington

Fault SystemFault SystemRough Creek Rough Creek Fault SystemFault System

Kentucky River Kentucky River Fault SystemFault System

Public Opinion of Global Warming

• Generally exaggerated………….. 33%• Generally correct…………………. 29%• Generally underestimated……….. 35%

Gallup Poll Mar. 2007

Cobb, 2006

Methods for storing CO2 in deep underground geological formations

SRCCS Figure TS-7

40

30

20

Non-OECDOECD

Growth2000–2030

Average Growth/Yr.2000–2030

1.6%

2.6%

The Source of Future CO 2 Emissions

Non-OECD

OECD

OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment. There are 30 member-countries: U.S.A.,Canada, Austraila, New Zealand, and nearly all of Europe.

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

10

0

0.6%

ExxonMobil Energy Outlook 2006 and American Magazine

250

200

Ethanol(conventional)

Hybrids

Least Expensive Methods to Cut CO2 Emissions

150

100

50

0

GasNuclear

IGCC-CCSWind

Ethanol(cellulose)

Source: SFA Pacific, JEC Study, American Magazine, 2007

American Public Opinion PollTop Concerns of Americans in 2007:

The war in Iraq .................…………………….35%

Healthcare ………………………….………15%

Job creation ………………………….....15%

Terrorism …………………………….13%

Source: NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll 2007 and American Magazine, 2007

Terrorism …………………………….13%

Illegal immigration …………...8%

Reducing the deficit ……..5%

Environment ………...3%

Energy/cost of gas .2%

Public Opinion on the Environment

Source: Gallup/USA Today and American Magazine, 2007

7%Active

EnvironmentalistSympathetic,but not active

Neutral Unsympathetictoward issue

14% 48% 29%

Thank You!Thank You!

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2020 US Coal Production

Coal Use for Projected Emissions Scenarios

2020

Source: EIA 2006

CasesA

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2020 US Coal Production

CasesB

2030

1,250

1,200

1,150

1,100

1,050

1,000

950

900

850

800

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

A

Coal Production Forecasts 1982–1989

ActualAEO 1982AEO 1983AEO 1984AEO 1985AEO 1986AEO 1987AEO 1989Trendline1,250

1,200

1,150

Coal Production Forecasts 1990–1995

Predicting Future Coal Production

1982 to 1989

1990 to 1995

Source: EIA 2007

1,250

1,200

1,150

1,100

1,050

1,000

950

900

850

800

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

C

ActualAEO 1996AEO 1997AEO 1998AEO 1999AEO 2000AEO 2001AEO 2002AEO 2003AEO 2004Trendline

Coal Production Forecasts 1996–2004

1,100

1,050

1,000

950

900

850

800

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

B

ActualAEO 1990AEO 1991AEO 1992AEO 1993AEO 1994AEO 1995Trendline

1990 to 1995

1996 to 2004

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Petroleum

Hydroelectric Power

Biomass

Nuclear Electric Power

Coal

Natural Gas

U.S. Energy Consumption

Coal Production

35

Source: EIA 2006

35

30

25

20

15

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Coal as a Percentage ofU.S. Energy Consumption

Billion Short Tons

EstimatedRecoverableReserves

Demonstrated Reserve Base(Measured and Indicated,Specified Depths andThicknesses)

Recoverable Reserves atActive Mines (19.4)

275.1

507.7

U.S. Coal Resources and ReservesAt January 1, 1997

Identified Resources(Measured, Indicated,and Inferred)

Total Resources(Identified andUndiscovered)

507.7

1,730.9

3,968.3

EIA 1999