Globalization What's New? What's Not? (And So What?)0. and S. byRobert Keohane Joseph NyeJr.

lobalization" emerged as a buzzword in

the 1990s, just as "interdependence" didmore to interdependence than 20 years now applies globalization ago at the turnof the millennium: "Thisvaguephrase a expresses poorly understood widespread but of feelingthatthe verynature world politics is changing." Some skeptics believe such terms are beyond for use. the redemption analytic Yetthe publicunderstands imageof the globe,and the new wordconveysan increased senseof vulneraNew bility to distantcauses.Forexample,as helicopters fumigated York in 1999to eradicate lethalnewvirus, press a the announced City thatthe pathogen in of mighthavearrived the bloodstream a traveler, in a birdsmuggled or that customs, in a mosquito hadflown through into a jet. Fears "bioinvasion" some environmental of led to groups call fora reduction globaltradeandtravel. in Likeall popular meantto covera variety phenomena, of concepts both "interdependence" "globalization" manymeanings. and have To understand peoplearetalking what aboutwhentheyusethe terms andROBERT KEOHANE B. isJames Duke science DukeUniversity. at O. professorpolitical of This is third book Power and University. article drawn the from forthcoming edition their of World in (NewYork: Interdependence: Politics Transition 2000). Longman,104 FOREIGN POLICY

to are not entirely new. Our characterization of

in the 1970s, but the phenomena it refers

S. F. School Government Harvard at JOSEPH NYEJR. is deanof theJohn Kennedy of

& Keohane Nye

to makethem usefulfor analysis, mustbeginby askingwhether we andglobalization simplytwo words the same are for interdependence thereis something goingon. new thing,or whether THE DIMENSIONS OF GLOBALISM

The two wordsare not exactlyparallel. refers a to Interdependence a It as condition, stateof affairs. canincrease, it hasbeendoingon most dimensions sincethe end of World WarII;or it candecline,as it did, at leastin economicterms, the of during GreatDepression the 1930s. Globalization that is Thereis moreof it. implies something increasing: start but Hence,ourdefinitions not withglobalization with"globalism," a condition thatcan increase decrease. or is networks interdepenof Globalism a stateof the worldinvolving denceat multicontinental distances. linkages The occurthrough flows andinfluences capital goods,information ideas, people of and and and and forces,as well as environmentally biologically and relevant substances Globalization deglobalizaand (suchasacidrainorpathogens). tion refer the increase declineof globalism. to or refers characterizedreciprocal effects Interdependence to situations by countries among or in actors different countries. among Hence,globalism is a typeof interdependence, withtwo special but characteristics. First, refers networks connections to of not globalism (multiple relationships), to singlelinkages. wouldrefer economic military We to or interdependence betweenthe United Statesand Japan,but not to globalism between UnitedStates Japan. the and is U.S.-Japanese interdependence of but part contemporary globalism, is not byitself globalism. of to it Second,fora network relationships be considered "global," mustinclude multicontinental not simply networks. distances, regional Distanceis a continuous fromadjacency variable, (between, ranging to sidesof the globe(for say,the UnitedStatesandCanada) opposite GreatBritain Australia). sharp and distinction between instance, Any andregional is and long-distance interdependence therefore arbitrary, thereis no pointin deciding whether intermediate relationships-say,between Japanand India or between Egyptand South Africa-would Yet qualify. globalismwouldbe an odd wordforproximateregionalrelationships. Globalizationrefersto the shrinkageof distance on a large scale [see box on pages 110]. It can be contrastedwith localization, or nationalization, regionalization.SPRING 2000 105

What's New? Globalization:

Someexamples help.Islam's diffusion Arabia from across may rapid Asiato whatis nowIndonesia a clearinstance globalization, was of but the initialmovement Hinduism of across Indian the subcontinent was not.Tiesamong countries theAsiaPacific the of Economic Cooperation forum asmulticontinental because thesecounqualify interdependence, triesinclude Americas wellasAsiaandAustralia; tiesamong the as but members the Association Southeast of of AsianNationsareregional. Globalism doesnot implyuniversality. the turnof the millenAt of nium, more than a quarter the Americanpopulationused the WorldWideWebcompared with one hundredth 1 percentof the of of population South Asia. Most people in the worldtodaydo not havetelephones; hundreds millions aspeasants remote of live in villages with only slightconnectionsto worldmarkets the globalflow of or ideas. Indeed,globalization accompanied increasing is by gaps, in between the rich and the poor. It impliesneither many respects, nor homogenization equity. and are Interdependence globalism both multidimensional phenomena.All too often,theyaredefinedin strictly economic as terms, if the world defined Butthereareseveral, economy globalism. equally forms globalism: of important * Economic involves flows and globalism services, long-distance of goods, as well as the information perceptions accompany and that capital, market It of exchange. also involvesthe organization the processes that arelinkedto theseflows,suchas the organization low-wage of in Asiaforthe U.S. andEuropean markets. production * Military refers networks interdependence of globalism to long-distance in whichforce,andthe threat promise force,areemployed. or of A of military is the "balance terror" of between goodexample globalism theUnitedStates theSovietUnionduring coldwar. two and the The countries' was strategic interdependence acuteandwell recognized. Not only did it produce but alliances, eitherside world-straddling couldhaveusedintercontinental missiles destroy otherwithin to the 30 minutes. Theirinterdependence distinctive because was was not it the conflict new,butbecause scaleandspeedof the potential totallyarisingfromit wereso enormous. * Environmental refersto the long-distancetransport mateof globalism rialsin the atmosphere oceans, or of biologicalsubstances or such as pathogensor genetic materials,that affect human health and well106FOREIGN POLICY

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of ozonelayeras a resultof being.The depletion the stratospheric chemicals an example environmental is of ozone-depleting globalof Africa ism,as is the spread the AIDSvirusfromwestequatorial around worldsincethe end of the 1970s.Someenvironmental the but has natural, muchof the recent may globalism be entirely change beeninduced human by activity. * Social cultural and involvesthe movement ideas,inforof globalism mation, images, and people (who, of course, carryideas and information them).Examples with include movement religions the of or the diffusionof scientificknowledge. important An facet of social globalism involvesthe imitationof one society's practices and institutionsby others:what some sociologistsrefer to as social has Often, "isomorphism." however, globalism followed military and economic globalism.Ideas,information, people follow and armiesand economicflows,and in doing so, transform societies and markets. its most profound At social globalism affects level, the consciousness individuals theirattitudes of and toward culture, socialandcultural Indeed, politics,andpersonal identity. globalism interacts with othertypesof globalism, becausemilitary, environand mental,and economicactivityconvey information generate and political ideas, which may then flow acrossgeographical boundaries. the currentera, as the growthof the Internet In reducescosts and globalizes the communications, flow of ideasis of increasingly independent otherformsof globalization. This divisionof globalism into separate dimensions inevitably is somewhat it for because Nonetheless, is useful analysis, arbitrary. changes in thevarious dimensions globalization notnecessarily simulof do occur One that taneously. can sensibly for instance, economic say, globalization tookplacebetweenapproximately and 1914,manifested 1850 in and tradeand capitalflowsbetweenpolitically imperialism increased and was reversed countries; thatsuchglobalization largely independent between 1914and1945.Thatis,economic rosebetween 1850 globalism and 1914andfellbetween1914and1945.However, military globalism roseto new heightsduring two world the as of wars, didmanyaspectssocial globalism.The worldwideinfluenzaepidemicof 1918-19, which took 30 million lives, was propagated part by the flows of soldiers in aroundthe world.So did globalismdecline or rise between 1914 and 1945?It dependson what dimensionof globalismone is examining.SPRING 2000 107

What's New? Globalization:

CONTEMPORARY

GLOBALISM

Whenpeople about refer speak colloquially globalization, typically to they in recentincreases globalism. thiscontext, In comments as "globalsuch ization fundamentally make is new" sense arenevertheless but misleading. We prefer speak globalism a phenomenon ancient to of as with roots and of globalizationtheprocess increasing as of noworin thepast. globalism, The issue not howoldglobalism butrather "thin" "thick" is how or is, it isatanygiventime. anexample "thin As of the globalization," SilkRoad an and link ancient and provided economic cultural between Europe Asia, buttheroute plied a small was ofhardy andthegoods that traders, by group weretraded andforth a direct back had on impact primarily a small(and of In "thick" elite)stratum consumers the road. contrast, relatively along relations globalization,described political of as scientist David Heldand by involve that as others, many relationships areintensive wellasextensive: flows and the long-distance thatarelarge continuous, affecting livesof The operations globalfinancialmarkets of many people. today,for affect from Peoria Penang. to is Globalizationtheprocess instance, people becomes thick. bywhichglobalism increasingly Globalism is different fromglobalism the 19th century, of today when European muchof its politicalstructure, imperialism provided and highertransport communications meantfewerpeople and costs weredirectlyinvolved.But is thereanythingaboutglobalism today that is fundamentally fromjust 20 yearsago?To say that different different alwaysproblematic, is since somethingis "fundamentally" absolute discontinuities not existin human do era history. Every builds on others,andhistorians always precursors phenomena can find for of the present.Journalist ThomasFriedman arguesthat contemporary and faster, globalization "farther, goes deeper, cheaper.. ."The degree of thickening globalism be givingriseto threechanges just of not may in degree in kind:increased but of networks, increased "instidensity tutional and transnational velocity," increased participation. Densityof NetworksEconomistsuse the term"network effects"to referto situationswherea product becomes more valuable once many people use it-take, for example, the Internet.Joseph Stiglitz, formerchief economist of the World Bank, has arguedthat a knowledge-based economy generates fur"powerful spillovereffects, often spreadinglike fire and triggering108 FOREIGN POLICY

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ther innovationand settingoff chain reactions new inventions." of as interdependence globalism becomethicker, and have Moreover, systemic relationships among differentnetworkshave become more Therearemoreinterconnections. economic Intensive interimportant. affects socialandenvironmental awaredependence interdependence; ness of these connections turnaffects in economicrelationships. For of instance,the expansion tradecan generateindustrial activityin countries lowenvironmental with environmental standards, mobilizing activists carry to theirmessage thesenewlyindustrializing envito but lax The activities affectenvironronmentally countries. resulting may mental interdependence instance,by reducingcross-boundary (for resentment the newlyindustrializing in pollution)but maygenerate socialandeconomic relations. countries, affecting The worldwide of crisis beganin Thailand that impact the financial in July1997illustrates extentof thesenetwork the interconnections. whatfirstappeared an isolated as and Unexpectedly, banking currency crisisin a small"emerging market" had country severeglobaleffects. It generated financial in elsewhere Asia, particularly South in panic Koreaand Indonesia; at the highest prompted emergency meetings level of worldfinanceand huge "bail-out" orchestrated packages by the International Fund(IMF); ledeventually a wideand to Monetary markets and the efficacyof spreadloss of confidencein emerging international financialinstitutions.Beforethat contagiousloss of confidence stemmed, was Russia defaulted itsdebt,anda U.S.had on basedhedgefundhadto be rescued a suddenly through planbrokered the Federal ReserveBankof New York. Even afterrecovery had by an to begun,Brazil required IMF loan, coupledwith a devaluation, avoidfinancial in 1999. collapse Economic is new.Indeed, relative the of globalism nothing magnitude cross-border investment 1997wasnot unprecedented. in marCapital ketswerebysomemeasures integrated thebeginning at the more at than end of the 20thcentury. net outflow capital The of fromGreatBritain in the fourdecades before1914 averaged percent grossdomestic 5 of with for overthe lastdecade. product, compared 2 to 3 percent Japan The financial crisisof 1997-99wasnot the firstto be globalin scale:"BlackTuesday" Wall Street in 1929 and the collapse of Austria's on Creditanstaltbank in 1931 triggereda worldwidefinancial crisis and In oil the depression. the 1970s,skyrocketing pricesprompted Organization of Petroleum Countriesto lend surplus fundsto developed ExportingSPRING 2000 109

New? What's Globalization:

Distance:

It's

Not

Quite

Dead

The "Death Distance" the battlecryof the information In some of is age. this is as it is a half-truth. domains, refrain true; a generalization, however, First, in has but of participationglobal interdependence increased, many people the are world onlytenuously connected anycommunications to networks tranthat scend their or localities. inAsia, states, eventheir Africa, Many peasant villages andLatin America onlyconnected theworld a whole are to as slow through and oftenthineconomic, and links. Evenforthosepeople linked social, political to communications it accurate saythat to networks, is more extensively global thesignificance distance of varies area. greatly issue by Forinstance, economicglobalism been mostmarked financial has in markets. Distanceis indeedirrelevant-except time zones-if a stock for can be soldinstantaneously New York HongKongby an investor in or in to one in Moscow. if Indeed, the stockissoldonline,it maybe only Abidjan a fictionthatit was"sold the New York on StockExchange." physical But movemoreslowly thancapital, because automobiles cutflowers and goods cannotbe transformed digitson a computer. into Orders suchitemscan for be sent withoutregard distance, the carsor flowers to but have to move from or or Suchmovement is physically Tokyo Bogotito Jakarta Calgary. faster thanever-flowersarenowsentthousands milesbyjet of taking place aircraft-butit is byno meansinstantaneous cheap. or to as Variability distance by applies cultural globalism well.The actual movement ideas information virtually of and is but instantaneous, howwell new conceptsare understood accepted and on depends how much the and of of attitudes, expectations different assumptions, groups peoplevary. We can referto these differences "cultural as whichhas been distance," of and and constrained shaped pastmigrations people ideas is, in turn, by by nations, and banks in those countriesmade a profitby relendingthat money to developing countries in Latin America and Africa (which needed the money to fund expansionary fiscalpolicies).But the money driedup with the globalrecessionof 1981-83:By late 1986, more than weremiredin severeexternaldebt. 40 countriesworldwide But some featuresof the 1997-99 crisisdistinguishit from previous ones. Most economists, governments, and international financial institutionsfailed to anticipate the crisis, and complex new financial instruments madeit difficultto understand. Evencountriesthat had pre110 FOREIGN POLICY

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The can to geography. U.S. president talksimultaneously peoplein Berlin, Buenos and the Aires,Beijing, Beirut, Mumbai, Bujumbura-but Belgrade, words be interpreted differently thesesevencities. will in same Likewise, very U.S. popular culture be interpreted youthin somecultures validatas may by new and but as ingfundamentally values lifestyles, viewedin othersettings nothingmorethantrivial symbols, expressed in baseball only caps,T-shirts, andmusic. forsomeyouthin thesame suchasTehran, symbols And such city, arerepresentativetheGreat of or Cultural distance resists Satan, of liberation. elementsof social globalism that rely on the homogenization. Finally, of are constrained distance bylegal and migration people highly by jurisdictions, because remains travel formostpeoplein the world, governments and costly seek and everywhere to control limitmigration. Similar distance occurs withenvironmental We variability by globalism. live on "onlyone earth," pollution rivers but of affects may directly only thosedownstream, the poisonous of many and air citiesin the former Soviet and countries lethalmostly peoplewithinlocaland is to empire developing basins. mostlethalpollution local.Evenglobal The is regional phenomena suchasthe depletion the ozonelayer global of and warming bylatitude vary andclimatic factors. Thereis alsogreatvariability distance military in by globalism. Onlya fewcountries intercontinental have and has missiles, onlythe UnitedStates the logistical command controlcapabilities globalreachwith and and for conventional forces. Mostcountries localor at bestregional are At powers. thesame weak localactors useothernetworks globalism cause can of to time, Evennonstate actors do so, as witnessed can whena transnational damage. terrorist bombed World the Trade Centerin New York. group -R.O.K. & J.S.N. viouslybeen praisedfor theirsoundeconomicpoliciesand performance were no less susceptible the financialcontagiontriggered speculato by tive attacksand unpredictable changesin marketsentiment.The World Bankhad recentlypublisheda reportentitled "TheEastAsian Miracle" to (1993), and investmentflowsto Asia had risenrapidly a new peak in until the crisishit. In December 1998, Federal 1997, remaininghigh Reserve BoardChairmanAlan Greenspansaid:"I have learnedmore about how this new international financialsystemworksin the last 12 months than in the previous20 years." Sheer magnitude,complexity,SPRING 2000 111

What's New? Globalization:

xxxlu.

.

.

.

.OWN,-

MRS,

May I interconnect you?

andspeeddistinguish from contemporary globalization earlier periods: the of was train that Whereas debtcrisis the 1980s a slow-motion wreck tookplaceovera period years, Asianmeltdown of the struck immediof over atelyandspread a period months. Thepointisthattheincreasing of of thickness globalism-the density in networks interdependence-is justa difference degree. of not Thicknessmeans different that of intersect more relationshipsinterdependence of at Hence,the effects eventsin one geographical deeply morepoints. on in can effects othergeographical area, onedimension, haveprofound on otherdimensions. in scientific As theories "chaos," in of and areas, so weather small eventsin one placecanhavecatalytic effects, systems, thattheirconsequences andelsewhere, vast.Suchsystems are are later, difficult understand, their to and effects therefore unpredictable. are often when Furthermore, thesearehumansystems, peopleareoftenhardat worktrying outwitothers,to gainan economic, to social,or military in unpredictable As a result, advantage ways. globalprecisely acting by ismwill likelybe accompanied pervasive Therewill be by uncertainty. continual betweenincreased and competition complexity uncertainty,112 FOREIGN POLICY

& Keohane Nye

andefforts governments, market and to by participants, others comprehendandmanage theseincreasingly interconnected complex systems. does affect it Globalization, therefore, notmerely governance;isaffected financial crises the magnitude the crisis of of of by governance. Frequent could to popular lead to movements limitinterdependence to 1997-99 and a reversal economic of Chaotic is globalization. uncertaintytoohigha price formostpeopleto payforsomewhat levelsof prosperity. higher average Unless some itsaspects beeffectively of can governed, globalization be may unsustainableitscurrent in form. Institutional Velocity The information revolution at theheart economic social is of and globalization. hasmade It thetransnational of and possible organizationwork the of a division of expansion markets, thereby facilitatingnewinternational labor. AdamSmithfamously As in declared TheWealth Nations, "the of division labor limited theextentof themarket." of is by Military globalism the its World predated information revolution, reaching heightduring WarII andthe coldwar; the nature military but of has interdependence beentransformed information Thepollution hasconthat by technology. tributed environmental to has in globalism its sources the coal-oil-steelauto-chemical that created between middle the of economy waslargely the 19thand20thcenturies hasbecome and but globalized recently; only the information revolution have a majorimpacton attempts to may counter reverse negative and the effects thisform globalism. of of Sometimes these changesare incorrectly viewedin termsof the of information flows. biggest The in camewith velocity change velocity the steamship especially telegraph: transatlantic and the The cableof 1866reduced timeof transmission information the of between London andNew York overa week-hence, bya factor abouta thousand. of by The telephone, contrast, increased velocityof suchmessages the by by a fewminutes do and (sincetelephone messages not require decoding), the Internet, compared the telephone, not muchat all.The as with by realdifference in the reduced of communicating, in the lies cost not of communication. theeffects therefore And are velocity anyindividual felt in the increased rather thanthe extensity globalism. of In intensity1877 it was expensive to send telegramsacrossthe Atlantic, and in 1927 or even 1977 it was expensive to telephone transcontinentally. and the rich used transcontinental Corporations telephones,but ordinarypeople wrotelettersunlessthere was an emergency. in 2000, if ButSPRING 2000 113

What's New? Globalization:

to the is free youhaveaccess a computer, Internet virtually andtranspacifictelephone callsmaycostonlya fewcentsperminute. volume The of communications increased many has orders magnitude, the of and by of has intensity globalism beenableto expand exponentially. Markets reactmorequicklythanbefore,becauseinformation diffusesso muchmorerapidly hugesumsof capitalcan be moved and at a moment's notice. Multinational have changedtheir enterprises morecloselyon a structures, organizational integrating production transnational basisand entering into more networks and alliances, as global capitalism has become more competitive density globalism-the of and networksinterdependence- more subject to rapid of change.Nongovernmental orgais notjusta diference degree.nizations (NGOs) have vastly in theirlevels of activity. expanded Withrespect globalism velocity, to and one therefore, candistinguish between velocity a givencommunication-"message the of velocity"and"institutional haschanged littleforthe velocity." Message velocity populationcentersof relativelyrich countriessince the telegraph becamemoreor lessuniversal toward endof the 19thcentury. the But institutional a velocity-how rapidly systemand the unitswithin it change-is a functionnot so muchof message velocitythan of the of contact-the "thickness" globalism. the late 1970s, of In intensity the newscyclewasthe sameas it hadbeenfordecades: Peoplefound out the day's headlines watching evening the newsandgotthe more by fromthe morning But complete storyandanalysis paper. the introduction of 24-hour cablenewsin 1980and the subsequent of emergence the Internet made have newscycles shorter haveputa larger and premium on smalladvantages speed. in Until recently, newspaper not one did anotherby receivingand processing information normally"scoop" an hour earlierthan another: long as the information As could be beforethe dailypaper"wentto bed,"it wastimely.But in processed a difference for 2000,an hour-or even a fewminutes-makes critical a cable televisionnetworkin termsof being "on top of a story" or the "behind curve." Institutional has accelerated morethan velocity Institutional reflects onlyindividual not linkmessage velocity. velocity but networks interconnections and This pheages amongnetworks. nomenonis wherethe realchangelies.

thickness The of increasing

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Transnational and Participation Complex Interdependence Reducedcosts of communications have increasedthe numberof actorsand increased relevance "complex the of interdeparticipating This conceptdescribes hypothetical a worldwith three pendence." characteristics: multiplechannelsbetween societies,with multiple in actors,not just states;multiple issues,not arranged any clear and of or states hierarchy; the irrelevance the threat useof forceamong linkedby complex interdependence. Weusedthe concept complex of in interdependence the 1970sprinto democracies. cipally describe emerging among relationships pluralist it didnot characterize relations betweenthe UnitedStates Manifestly andthe SovietUnion,nordidit typify politics the Middle the of East, EastAsia, Africa,or even partsof LatinAmerica. we However, did that relations some argue international monetary approximated aspects of complex in the 1970sandthatsomebilateral relainterdependence and for tionships-French-German U.S.-Canadian, example-approximated threeconditions complex all of In of interdependence. a world we argued, The complexinterdependence, politicswouldbe different. of of setgoalsandinstruments statepolicy-and the processes agenda as the tingandissuelinkage-wouldallbe different, would significance of international organizations. Translated the language globalism, politicsof complex into of the wouldbe one in whichlevelsof economic, environinterdependence are mental,and socialglobalism high and military is globalism low. instances security of communities-where states havereliable Regional that will since expectations force not be used-includeScandinavia the 20th century. intercontinental early Arguably, complexinterdependencewaslimited the during coldwarto areas protected the United by States,such as the Atlanticsecurity Indeed,U.S. power community. and policywerecrucialto the construction postwar of international fromNATO to the IMF,whichprotected supinstitutions, and ranging Since 1989,the declineof military portedcomplexinterdependence. and to globalism the extensionof socialand economicglobalism the former Sovietempire have implied expansion areas complex the of of at members NATO in of interdependence, leastto the newandaspiringEasternEurope.Moreover, economic and social globalismseem to have created incentives for leaders in South America to settle territorial out quarrels, of fearboth of being distracted fromtasksof economic and social developmentand of scaringawayneeded investmentcapital.SPRING 2000 115

What's New? Globalization:

Eventodaycomplexinterdependencefarfromuniversal. is Military forcewas usedby or threatened statesthroughout 1990s, the against fromthe Taiwan fromKuwait the former Straitto Iraq, to Yugoslavia; fromKashmir Congo.Civilwars endemic muchof sub-Sahato are in ranAfricaandsometimes haveescalated international into as warfare, whenthe Democratic of Congo's warengulfed neighcivil five Republic countries. information The boring revolution and the voracious Interstateuse and threat of appetiteof televisionviewersfor have virtually dramatic visual images have militaryforce of heightened global awareness disappearedin certain some of these civil conflictsand areas of the world. madethemmoreimmediate, conto for tributing pressure humanitarian as and The various dimensions intervention, in Bosnia Kosovo. of globalization-inthis case, the socialand military dimensionsbut are conducive greater to harintersect, the results not necessarily interstate and threatof military use forcehave mony.Nevertheless, in areas the world-notablyamong of the virtually disappeared certain information-era democracies the advanced, bordering Atlanticandthe as of in Pacific, well as amonga number theirless wealthyneighbors LatinAmericaand increasingly Eastern-Central in Europe. The dimension complexinterdependence has changed of that the mostsincethe 1970sisparticipation channels contact in of sociamong eties.Therehasbeena vastexpansion suchchannels a result the of as of dramatic in the costsof communication large fall over distances. isno It to to on longer necessary be a richorganization be ableto communicate a real-time basiswith peoplearoundthe globe.Friedman calls this of technology, and changethe "democratization" finance, information, because diminished havemadewhatwereonce luxuries costs available to a muchbroader of range society. "Democratization" is probably wrongword,however, the since in markets stakes. There moneyvotes,andpeoplestartout withunequal is no equality, example, capital for in the markets, despite newfinancial instruments that permitmore people to participate. "Pluralization" be a betterword, the vastincrease the number in and might suggesting of participants global in networks. number international The of variety morethan quadrupled about6,000 to over 26,000in the from NGOs 1990salone.Whether such theyarelarge organizations as Greenpeace116 FOREIGN POLICY

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kooks "three withmodems or orAmnesty International, the proverbial can theirvoicesasneverbefore. In anda faxmachine," NGOs nowraise to a used worldwide the Internet coordinate massive 1999,NGOs protest meetingin Seattle.Whether againstthe WorldTradeOrganization can these organizations forgea coherentand crediblecoalitionhas becomethe keypolitical question. at channels contact, multiconof of Thisvastexpansion transnational of has the media a profusion NGOs, and tinental distances, generated by of the helpedexpandthe thirddimension complexinterdependence: More more are issues societies. and issues upforgrabs connecting multiple from and regulations practices-ranging pharinternationally, including to standards banking to maceutical and testing accounting product regulation-that were formerly as of regarded the prerogatives national The Roundof multilateral negotiations trade of governments. Uruguay the late 1980s and early 1990s focusedon services, once virtually untouched international and crisis 1997-99 of by regimes; the financial ledto bothpublic private efforts globalize transparent to and the financial in advanced thathasbecome industrialized countries. reporting prevalent Increased at and of participation a distance greater approximation donot imply endof politics. the conthe On complex interdependence remains Even characterized comtrary, important. in domains power by economic, social, plex interdependence, politicsreflects asymmetrical and environmental not just amongstatesbut also interdependence, nonstate and relations. Comactors, through among transgovernmental is of but an plex interdependence not a description the world, rather idealconceptabstracting reality. is, however, idealconcept from It an thatincreasingly in to of even corresponds reality many parts the world, at transcontinental distances-andthatcorresponds closelythan more obsolete of as interstate relations focus that images world politics simply on forceandsecurity. solely So whatreally newin contemporary is or Intensive, thick, globalism? network interconnections havesystemic that oftenunanticipated. effects, Butsuchthickglobalism not uniform: varies region, is It and by locality, issuearea.It is lessa matter communications of than message velocity of declining and cost,whichdoesspeedupwhatwe callsystemic institutional velocity. Globalization shrinks distance, but it does not make

distance irrelevant.And the filters providedby domestic politics and political institutionsplay a majorrole in determiningwhat effectsglobalizationreallyhas and how well variouscountriesadaptto it. Finally,SPRING 2000 117

What's New? Globalization:

reduced costshaveenabled moreactors participate world to in politics at greater areas world of to approximate distances, leading larger politics the idealtypeof complex interdependence. the of statesis likelyto continue the as Although system sovereign in dominant structure theworld, content world the of ischanging. politics More dimensions ever-but not all-are beginning approach than to our idealized Such can conceptof complexinterdependence. trends be set even as in back, events, happened earlier perhaps reversed, cataclysmic by of globalization. hassurprises. history's But phases History always surprises occur the of has The always against backgroundwhat gonebefore. surprises of the early21stcentury no doubt,be profoundly affected the will, by ofcontemporary thatwehavetried analyze to here. processes globalization WANT TO KNOW MORE?

became buzzword the 1970s, a in in thanks partto the Interdependence landmarkworks of two economists:RichardN. Cooper'sThe EconomicPolicy in the Atlantic Economicsof Interdependence: McGraw Vernon's (New York: Hill, 1968)andRaymond Community at Sovereignty Bay: The Multinational Spreadof U.S. Enterprises BasicBooks,1971).Political scientists Robert Keohane (NewYork: O. andJoseph Nye Jr.havepublished number works the topic, S. a of on Transnational Relationsand WorldPolitics (Cambridge: including Harvard Press,1972) and Power and Interdependence: University WorldPolitics in Transition (Boston: Little,Brown,and Company, third New York: 1977;forthcoming edition, 2000). Longman, and Technological economicchangedid not stop in the 1980s, evenasthe "little war" refocusing cold was foundation attention, public and resources, academicfashionson the more traditional security With the cold war's in interdepenend, the resulting agenda. growth dencebecame clearthatjournalist so Thomas Friedman's well-written book on globalization, Lexus and the Olive Tree (New York: The Farrar Strausand Giroux, 1999) became a bestseller.(Friedman Le engaged Monde diplomatique's IgnacioRamonetin a livelydebate over globalizationin the Fall 1999 issue of FOREIGN POLICY.) WilliamGreider a view in his One presents skeptical post-cold-war World,Readyor Not: The Manic Logicof GlobalCapitalism (New York: Simon& Schuster, 1997).118 FOREIGN POLICY

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of to The mostcompleteacademic survey globalization date is the Politics, Economics, and magisterialGlobal Transformations: Culture(Stanford: Stanford Press,1999),by DavidHeld, University and DavidGoldblatt, Jonathan Perraton. Saskia McGrew, Anthony an interesting in Globalization Sassen presents sociological perspective and Its Discontents:Essays on the New Mobilityof People and New takes Cairncross a some1997).Frances Money(NewYork: Press, whatbreathless view of the information in revolution The Death of Revolution Will ChangeOur Distance: How the Communications Lives(Boston: Harvard Business SchoolPress, E. 1997).Margaret Keck book Activists Beyond Borders:Advocacy and KathrynSikkink's Networks International in Politics(Ithaca: CornellUniversity Press, a on of 1998)offers historical perspective the evolution globalnorms, and JaredM. Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of HumanSocieties(NewYork: Norton& Company, W.W. 1997)examinesthe various dimensions globalism a spanof centuries. of over Karl Polanyi's The Great Transformation & (New York:Farrar Beacon remains classic a account the rise of Rinehart, 1944; Press, 1985) and fall of 19th-century economic globalism.Dani Rodrik's Has Institute International for Globalization GoneToo Far? (Washington: theseconcerns the current Jeffrey for era. Economics, 1997)updates G. Williamson's andtheLabor in "Globalization Market," Philippe chapter, G. eds., Growth, Inequalityand Aghion and Jeffrey Williamson, and Policy (Cambridge: Globalization: Theory,History, Cambridge source important for historical data. Press, 1998)isanexcellent University Forlinksto relevantWebsites,as well as a comprehensive index of relatedFOREIGN POLICYarticles, accesswww.foreignpolicy.com.

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