keppel woerz aug2010

8/17/2019 Keppel Woerz Aug2010

1/22

1

I F M P

O N

F R D

A:

2009

,

, , .

38 E

E E .

.

GDP . M,

(

GDP)

. :

. F,

.

JEL: F14, F15, O52

K: ; ; C, E

S E

: F 26 2010

1 P SERF/BG C S ONB E J F C S

N I C, F 12 2010 ONB . J F

.


2/22

2

1.

S , .

GDP % ( IMF E O

04/2010), % 2009.

. H, .

2009

.

I ,

.

( E, 2009; MK S,

2009; R S, 2009, ). S

S 2007, S ,

, S.A , :

S

S

(MK S, 2009).

I ,

. I ,

S (

) . H ,

. I ,

S . A

,

.

B ? I

,

. O

.

2009 S 2. S 3

.

.

. A

. S 4

,

38 E . S 5 .


3/22

3

2.

2009

. F 1 , E A,

S, C E E A 2004 A 2009.

M 2008 . B M 2009, 20% .

A . S 21%,

E A 18%. E 20% 19% . F

C E E, . E

C E E 23%,

28%.

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

40

50

60

70

80

90

100Exports in billion USD

Real Merchandise World Trade, Au . 2004 - Au . 2009

Figure 1

Source: CPB Trade Monitor.

100

150

200

250

300

Aug-

04

Feb-

05

Aug-

05

Feb-

06

Aug-

06

Feb-

07

Aug-

07

Feb-

08

Aug-

08

Feb-

09

Aug-

09

70

90

110

130

150

170

World exports (l.s.) Euro Area (l.s.)

CEE (r.s.) United States (r.s.)

100

150

200

250

300

Aug-

04

Feb-

05

Aug-

05

Feb-

06

Aug-

06

Feb-

07

Aug-

07

Feb-

08

Aug-

08

Feb-

09

Aug-

09

70

90

110

130

150

170

World imports (l.s.) Euro Area (l.s.)

CEE (r.s.) United States (r.s.)

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Imports in billion USD

A , , ,

. F 2

OECD . OECD

11% 15%

( D 2008 J 2009). I M 2009,

, 49% ( ) 34% (

) . H,

2009.

A , M 2008 O 2008

L ,

S .

J 2009, , ,

J 2009.

M F 2 ,

OECD 2.

S


4/22

4

,

(F L 2009).

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2008M1 2008M4 2008M7 2008M10 2009M1 2009M4 2009M7

Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials

Crude materials, inedible, except fuels

Manufactured goods

Machinery and transport equipment

Beverages and tobacco

month-on-month growth in %

Figure 2

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2008M1 2008M4 2008M7 2008M10 2009M1 2009M4 2009M7

Commodities and transactions, n.e.c

Chemicals and related products, n.e.s

Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes

Miscellaneous manufactured articles

Food and live animals

month-on-month growth in %

OECD Import growth by product categories, based on 3-month moving averages

Source: OECD.

. F , C, E S E (CESEE) . R

CESEE E

2008

GDP .

,

2009 ( F 3).


5/22

5

-10.00

-8.00

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

2007Q1 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3

Food, Feeds, & Beverages Fuels, etc. Capital Goods Industrial Supplies

Automotive vehicles, etc. Consumer Goods Other Goods

Absolute Change In Exports By End-Use Categories for CESEE EU Member States

change to previous year in ppts of GDP

Figure 3

Source: Eurostat.

B , 2009

. I ,

.

,

, , . F , C F (2008)

. E (2004)

. M R (2006)

.

, ,

F K (2009)

. E A 1990

2008. H P (2008) . B

.

,

.

.

O , .

,

(A, 2008) , (C F, 2008). O

,


6/22

6

.

(C, R S, 2000).

A S,

2007/2008. I , S

(.. ). L , C . (2000)

.

. A ,

, . H P

(2008)

, .

B, ,

. ,

. A :

1. R

2. S

3. P ()

S

.

, .. S

.

3.1. R

. S

, ,

, ,

. GDP

.

, GDP

. I (2002)

2

1960 1970 3.4 1990. I , F (2009)

3.5 . (2008) (2009)

.

. H, .

E (2009) 2008/09 .

H

.

. B ,

.

H,

. A (F , 2009; F, 2009),


7/22

7

. S GDP

, GDP

. D .

H,

. A

. F , P A

F, G (N , 4 A 2009).

F .2

3.2. S

A

. F ,

80% , 20% GDP.

GDP . ,

,

.

A . F 3

GDP E25 ( 2004). 3

E 2004 (E15),

C E E 2004 (CEE E

). . F ,

( )

. E15 66%

2005. 30%

80% . CEE E

43% 89% 2005,

48%. ,

GDP ,

.

2 A , GDP

. H ,

. G D 1930

. ( A . 2009)


8/22

8

3.7 1.9 2.9

26.9

66.6 63.03.2

14.012.1

66.2

17.522.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Value Added Exports Imports

primary other manufacturing transport equ. services

EU 15

Structure of Value Added and Trade in 2005

Figure 4

Source: EUKLEMSdatabase (Timmer et al. 2007).

8.71.8 2.2

39.4

72.7 73.7

3.8

15.6 11.3

48.1

9.9 12.8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Value Added Exports Imports

pr imary other manufactur ing transport equ. services

CEE EU Member States

:

C E E

. A , 4% GDP

15% .

. A E ,

22% C R, 21% H 23% P 2008.C

. D 2008/09 ,

. F C E E,

2009.

3.3. P ()

F,

. I (2009)

. A

(2009)

. H

2008

2008

. C F (2009)

: F,

() , ,

, ,

, . F,

. A (2009)

. H

.


9/22

9

I

E E . 2009

, ,

, . I ,

.

O

. O R S

(2009) : F, R S (2009)

( ) . S,

, . H, R S

(2009): F , GDP, ,

,

. I ,

.

, GDP

2007 2009. S,

R S (2009). A

2008,

2008. H, GDP 2009.

F, C E E,

, 1

. F 2010 ,

. H, 2009 . B

,

2007, , 2009

20072008 R S (2009).

4.1 D

I 2007 2009

. GDP

GDP GDP 20072008

2009 ( 2010 ).

IMF C F N 2009. ,

.

S 3

.

( GDP ,

, E

) GDP . S

.

CDS 2006 2008.


10/22

10

( )

. A ,

. P .

GDP. F,

. A

A1.

I

, 2006

2008. ,

GDP .3 F

CDS , 20062008

,

,

.4

38 OECD E ( A2). O . IMF I F

S B D I E,

D

. A

GDP . A

,

GDP ,

.

3 2008 2009

20072010. .4 I ,

, , . 2008, ,

.


11/22

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2Trade Openness

g r o w t h r e v e r s a l 0 7 - 0 9

Crisis Response in 2009 and Trade Openness 2006-2008

Figure 5

Sources: Authors' Calculations based on Eurostat, UN, IMF, Consensus Economics.

4.2.

O 1.

iiiiiii debt avgrowther ind vad xratio y ε β β β β β α ++++++=

54321 _

I , . S

,

.

: M

( ) GDP. ,

,

GDP .

. F

GDP. A ,

. H, GDP . F,

, FDI GDP

. 5

A ,

.

6.

5 ,

, . R

. P ,

.6 S .


12/22

12

ML , ,

C (1977) .

. F, H (1981) ,

. I , 1000 ,

. I , 20 .

( H ) (

). ( 2002)

4.3. A C S E

1

: ( )

GDP ( ),

( ),

( ). GDP

. H,

, .

.

1% GDP 0.4 .

S R, 40%

, GDP 6.8

K, 23% GDP. 6.8 ,

,

8 (15 S R 7 K). F,

. A ,

( 4.4).


13/22

13

1: D G D 2009.

Variable (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

xrat io -0.003 0.019 0.216 **

0.8 9 0.47 0 .03

vad_ind 0.427 *** 0.354 *** 0.705 ***

0.0 0 0.00 0 .00

er 0.074 -0.034 0.107

0.2 0 0.62 0 .34

avgrowth 0.511 *** 0.830 *** 0.487 *** 0.872 *** 0.652 ***

0.0 1 0.00 0.01 0.00 0 .00

debt 0.002 *** 0.001 0.002 *** 0.001 0.002 ***

0.0 0 0.56 0.01 0.48 0 .01

xrat io*vad_ind -0.009 **

0.02

xrat io*er -0.004 *

0.09

constant -5.721 *** 4.953 *** -3.644 * 5.510 *** -13.000 ***0.01 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.01

N 38 38 38 38 38

R2

0.69 0.32 0.60 0.37 0.71

F 14.0 *** 5.4 *** 17.3 *** 6.7 *** 10.7 ***

Prob > F 0.0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 .00 N: GDP 2007

2009; ; *(**)***

10% (5%) 1% .

C 24 1

. N,

. C

GDP (5) ,

. P ,

. H,

, ( 2% ),

.

,

, .7

L .

: () GDP .

. 0.6

1 20062008 GDP 0.6

20072009. F, GDP ( )

2009.

( A3). I

GDP 20082009 20072009.

7

GDP, .


14/22

14

, GDP ,

. O ,

.

0.2 1% 20062008

0.2 GDP (20082009).

,

.

I ,

. A3 GDP

2007 2010 . N ,

GDP

. I , GDP

. ,

GDP. H,

, 2010 S 2009

. ,

2009 2009.

2: C D RVariable EU-27 EU-10 BAL CEE

xratio 0.198 ** 0.204 ** 0.218 ** 0.206 **

0.05 0. 04 0.02 0.04

vad_ind 0.680 *** 0.690 *** 0.727 *** 0.691 ***

0.00 0. 00 0.00 0.00

er 0.123 0.083 0.099 0.104

0.28 0. 45 0.32 0.34

avgrowth 0.674 *** 0.723 *** 0.744 *** 0.600 ***

0.00 0. 00 0.00 0.01

debt 0.002 *** 0.006 ** 0.006 ** 0.006 **

0.01 0. 05 0.03 0.04

xratio*vad_ind -0.008 ** -0.009 ** -0.009 *** -0.009 **

0.03 0. 02 0.01 0.02

xratio*er -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 ** -0.004 *

0.11 0. 15 0.05 0.09

EU 0.591

0.51

EU10 0.845

0.39

BAL 14.441 ***0.00

CEE 1.188

0.27

constant -13.000 *** -13.000 * ** -14.000 *** -13.000 ***

0.01 0. 00 0.00 0.00

N 38 37 37 37

R2

0.72 0.74 0.90 0.74

F 9.1 *** 9.9 *** 30.6 *** 9.9 ***Prob > F 0.00 0. 00 0.00 0.00 N: GDP 2007

2009; ; *(**)***

10% (5%) 1% ; A1

.


15/22

15

C ( 2)

( 1). C E

E E, :

, .

B ,

, : .

4.4. R R

F, ,

. B

2009,

.8 I 3 CDS ( )

.

,

GDP CDS

. I 2 3 E . ,

. ,

( )

.

I 3, . I

4 , 5 6

E .

. O : A

. C ,

. F, E

.

,

. D

. F,

( ) (.. ).

F,

.

8 B ,

GDP. . , L , .

. A CDS

2006 2008.


16/22

16

3: A F M

CDS EURO FIX-ER Exp_int Exp_cons Exp_EU27

xratio 0.229 *** 0.059 0.032 0.163 * 0.188 ** 0.216 **

0.01 0.47 0.64 0.08 0.02 0.02

vad_ind 0.462 *** 0.476 *** 0.403 *** 0.646 *** 0.626 *** 0.697 ***

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

er 0.113 0.033 0.062

0.27 0.72 0.58

avgrowth 0.712 *** 0.797 *** 0.871 *** 0.676 *** 0.816 *** 0.774 ***

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

debt -0.008 0.005 * 0.006 ** 0.005 *** 0.007 *** 0.006 ***

0.13 0.06 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.02

exports*vad_ind -0.009 *** -0.003 -0.002 -0.007 ** -0.008 *** -0.009 ***

0.00 0.36 0.50 0.04 0.01 0.01

exports*financial)

-0.015 *** -0.044 -0.077 -0.004 * -0.004 * -0.004 *

0.01 0.55 0.18 0.08 0.04 0.07

BAL 16.55 *** 13.48 *** 14.25 *** 14.367 *** 15.136 *** 14.410 ***

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

cds 0.505 ***

0.00

EURO 1.017

0.67

FIX-ER 1.683

0.36

exp-int 0.054

0.17

exp-cons -0.066 *

0.07

exp-eu27 -0.019

0.50

constant -5.378 -7.333 ** -5.372 * -14.000 *** -9.448 *** -12.000 ***0.12 0.05 0.10 0.00 0.02 0.01

N 36 37 37 37 37 37

R 0.93 0.90 0.92 0.90 0.92 0.90

F 42.6 *** 30.5 *** 40.1 *** 26.6 *** 36.1 *** 27.3 ***

Prob > F 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N: GDP 2007

2009; ; *(**)***

10% (5%) 1% .1)

.


17/22

17

. S

GDP. B ,

. GDP ,

. D

,

. ,

. A ,

.

I

E . 38 , E , OECD E SE E .

( )

GDP ,

,

,

. , . O

2008 .

O

GDP. I ,

. I ,

.

GDP .

,

. ,

. H,

.

A :

. F,

. O

.

S

. C

,


18/22

18

. H,

.

, : D

, : A ?

, ,

.

F,

,

. I ,

. H,

.


19/22

19

A J. (2008), O , J

I M F 27 (2008) 372386.

A M., A. B, B. E, K.OR, G. R (2009), F G D GC C: S, D L, P 50 E P

P M, , O, 2009

A . (2009), F C E M , IMF S P N 09/04

A M. (2009) B : B

G20 , P I N. 35, J 2009, C E P R

C F., L. R R. S (2000), F C C C, IMF

P 55/2000.

C E., J. F (2008), D

, ? , J I M F 27

(2008) 14301452.

C JP., . F (2009), F C M A M F?,

P R P 5003, J 2009, B.

C, R. D. (1977), "D I O L R", ,

A S A 19 (1) 1518.

E S. (2004), F O, S S C A R NBER

P 10277

E H. (2009), C, R G P N: S C

G R, MPRA P N. 18433.

F M., A. L, (2009), S , E,

N 2009.

F J., I. K (2009), A

, BOFI D P 11/2009.

F J., J. (2009), F B B G R R

F, C. (2009), R G D. H E, B

P 5015, A 2009.

H F., S. P (2001), C ,

I R E F 17 (2008) 572588.

H, P. (1981), R S, J & S, N , 153199.

I , (2009), B C E: L P, B

P R P N. 5016, A 2009

IMF E O 10/2009


20/22

20

I, D. (2002) LR I R, 1, 89100.

M P., H. R (2006), G E M: C?, NBER

P 11550.

MK, .J., A. S (2009), M G F C. C A

M A, A N , P 25/2009.

D C. (2009), P F F F O, N ,

04.04.2009

R A., M. S (2009), CC C C 2008 C: I

L A E, NBER P 15358.

, K. (2009) : E J E.,

M 2009.

, R. (2002) R R A: S P S P O IS

S, S S M G, N S , D 23 2009

: ://..///D/RR2.

, KM. (2009) C G : R S C

G , M P, C: R G20, R.

B S. E, E. .


21/22

21

A A1: L D S

Variable name Description Source

dependent variable

gdp0709 Absolute difference in real GDP growth 2007 to real GDP growth forecasts for 2009, in pp Eurostat/ Consensus Economics

gdp0809 Absolute difference in real GDP growth 2008 compared to real GDP growth forecasts for

2009, in pp

gdp0710 Absolute difference in real GDP growth 2007 compared to real GDP growth forecasts for

2010, in pp

Eurostat/ Consensus Economics

trade factors

xratio Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) World Development Indicators

exp_cons Export share of consumption goods plus motor spirit and passenger motor cars (in % of total

exports)

Eurostat/ IMF

exp_eu27 Export share to EU-27 (in % of total exports) Eurostat/ IMF

exp_int Export share of intermediate goods (in % of total exports) Eurostat/ IMF

structural factors

vad_ind Industry, value added (% of GDP) World Development Indicators

financial factors

cds1 5 year Credit Default Swaps Datastream

er2 Nominal exchange rate versus Euro Eurostat/ IMF

additional control variables

avgrowth Average real GDP growth 2006-2008 Eurostat/ IMF

debt External debt, incl. intercompany loans (% of GDP) Eurostat/ IMF

regional dummies

BAL Dummy variable for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania

CEE Dummy variable for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Belarus, Czech Republic,

Estonia, Croatia, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Poland, Romania,

Serbia, Russia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Ukraine

EU Dummy variable for the EU-27 countries

EU10 Dummy variable for Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia,

Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania

FIX-ER Dummy variable for countries with fixed exchange rates (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Bosnia

and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Germany, Estonia, Spain, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy,

Luxembourg, Lithuania, Latvia, Macedonia, Malta, Montenegro, The Netherlands, Portugal,

Slovakia, Slovenia)

EURO Dummy variable for Euro Area 16

N: A 20062008,

CDS, 2006 2008 .1 G CDS 2006 2008; 5 CDS

A, B H, B, S, M, N, S,

, CDS .2 G 2006

2008, .


22/22

A A2: L C.

Albania Greece Romania

Austria Hungary Russia

Belarus Ireland Serbia

Belgium Italy Slovak Republic

Bosnia and

Herzegovina Japan Slovenia

Bulgaria Latvia Spain

Croatia Lithuania Sweden

Czech Republic Luxembourg Switzerland

Denmark Macedonia Turkey

Estonia Netherlands Ukraine

Finland Norway United Kingdom

France Poland United States

Germany Portugal

A A3: S .

Variable 2007-2009 2008-2009 2007-2010

xratio 0.216 ** 0.237 ** -0.054

0.03 0.02 0.34

vad_ind 0.705 *** 0.524 *** 0.073

0.00 0.00 0.43

er 0.107 0.196 * -0.114 *

0.34 0.09 0.08

xratio*vad_ind 0.65 *** 0.88 *** 0.81 ***

0.00 0.00 0.00

xratio*er 0.00 *** 0.00 0.01 ***

0.01 0.21 0.00

avgrowth -0.009 ** -0.008 ** 0.002

0.02 0.03 0.42

debt -0.004 * -0.002 0.002

0.09 0.39 0.19

constant -13.000 *** -11.000 *** -1.9420.01 0.01 0.44

N 38 37 37

R2

0.71 0.75 0.83

F 10.7 *** 12.4 *** 20.4 ***

Prob > F 0.00 0.00 0.00 N: GDP ;

; *(**)*** 10% (5%) 1% .

keppel woerz aug2010

Documents