ketahanan eko- sistem millenium assessment smno.psdl-ppsub.2013
TRANSCRIPT
MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENT
An international scientific assessment of the consequences of ecosystem changes for human well-being:–Modeled on the IPCC–Providing information requested by:
• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)• Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD)• Ramsar Convention on Wetlands• Convention on Migratory Species (CMS)• other partners including the private sector and
civil society–With the goals of:
• stimulating and guiding action to conserve ecosystems and enhance their contribution to human well-being
• building capacity to undertake integrated ecosystem assessments and to act on their information
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
HUMAN CHALLENGE• Considerable progress has been made in fighting
poverty – life expectancy increasing– infant mortality decreasing– agricultural production increasing, etc.
• Major problems remain– 1.2 billion people live on less than $1 per day– 1 billion people do not have access to clean water– More than 2 billion people have no access to
sanitation– 1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards
considered acceptable by WHO– 700 million people suffer from indoor air pollution due
to biomass burning
Source: Serageldin, 2002, Science 296:54. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
Why a Multi-Scale Assessment?Expect that findings at any scale of a multi-
scale assessment will be improved by information and perspectives from other
scales
Rationale– Characteristic scale of processes
– Greater resolution at smaller scales
– Independent validation of conclusions
– Response options matched to the scale where
decision-making takes place
Regional
UsersRegional Development Banks, etc.
NationalGovernment
Local Community
Global Assessment
National
Local
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
First MA Product: Conceptual Framework
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
Ecosystem Services: The benefits people obtain from
ecosystems
RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of
ecosystem processes
• climate regulation• disease regulation
• flood regulation• detoxification
ProvisioningGoods produced or
provided by ecosystems
• food
• fresh water
• fuel wood
• fiber
• biochemicals
• genetic resources
CulturalNon-material benefits
obtained from ecosystems
• spiritual
• recreational
• aesthetic
• inspirational
• educational
• communal
• symbolic
SupportingServices necessary for production of other ecosystem services.
• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling
• Primary production
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
ECOSYSTEM CHANGES AFFECT HUMAN WELL-BEING
Security is affected both by changes in provisioning services, which affect supplies of food and other
goods and the likelihood of conflict over declining resources, and by changes in regulating services,
which could influence the frequency and magnitude of floods, droughts or other catastrophes. It can also
be affected by changes in cultural services as, for example, when their loss contributes to the
weakening of social relations in a community.These changes in turn affect material well-being,
health, freedom and choice and good social relations.Human well-being can be enhanced through
sustainable human interactions with ecosystems supported by necessary instruments, institutions, organizations, and technology. Creation of these
through participation and transparency may contribute to freedoms and choice as well as to
increased economic, social, and ecological security. By ecological security, we mean the minimum level of ecological stock needed to ensure a sustainable
flow of ecosystem services.
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
Major issues related to security
Examples: • Desertification in China (sand storms)• Eutrofication in western coastal
ecosystems• Long-term droughts and rainfall
variability in the Sahel• Crop failures in rural Africa
Food and water insecurity is a second primary area of concern in changes in ecosystems
services. Multiple domains of vulnerability exist in food
security regimes and livelihood systems. Production, economic exchanges, and nutrition
are key elements as well as more structural issues associated with the political economy.
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
Framework Examines Multiple Drivers as they Influence Ecosystems and Human Well-
being
Driver
Response
HumanImpact
Ecosystems
Health Economics Social
ClimateChange
Land CoverChange
BiodiversityLoss
NutrientLoading Etc.
Millennium Assessment
IPCC
Climate Change
Energy SectorBiodiversity Food
Supply Water
Health Economics Social
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
Framework allows examination of trade-offs among services
Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686.
Freshwater supply and
demand
Food supply and demand
Forest product supply and demand
Biodiversityloss
Climatechange
Water availability
Water use and nutrient loss
Erosion andwater flow
Loss
and f
ragmen
tation
of ha
bitat
Redu
ced r
esilie
nce t
o cha
nge
Habit
at lo
ss
Habitat loss
Loss of crop genetic diversity
Habitat change
Change in transpiration
& albedo
N, C
H 4, N 20
em
ission
s
Hydr
ologic
CO 2 a
nd te
mpe
ratu
re ch
ange
s
Precipitation & temperature
Land transformation
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL
KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
KERANGKA KONSEPTUAL
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS
At a global level there have been substantial improvements in human wellbeing since the 1950s. World population has almost tripled, but the ability
to support that population expanded even more. Life expectancy increased and infant mortality rates
declined almost everywhere.
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS
More important, however, has been the enormous expansion in human capital.
Literacy rates are a proxy for the number of people with at least primary education.
Literacy has increased everywhere. Secondary and tertiary education rates have
also expanded greatly.
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS
The growth in human well-being over the last several decades has come in large part because of increases
in provisioning services from several major ecosystems.
Over the last few decades, these changes have been the largest in cultivated systems, with the biggest changes in this time period coming from increased
intensification rather than from large-scale conversion of land to agriculture, and coastal and
marine systems, from harvesting fish resources and the addition of nutrients in coastal regions as
pollutants.
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
Preliminary findings
Nutrient cycling is one of the services that has been profoundly affected by human activities over long
periods of time, with a significant acceleration in the last few decades.
Most of the impact on nutrient cycling has come from the large-scale agricultural changes and its
inputs over the last decades. Therefore, most of the tradeoff of increased production against other non-provisioning services, such as nutrient cycling, can be tracked by focusing on areas where agriculture
has changed substantially.
In the same vein, biodiversity is critical to the performance of all the buffering mechanisms that
ensure an efficient use and cycling of nutrients.
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
Preliminary findings of
Ecosystem changes due to trade-offs for enhancing provisioning services have played an important role in the
emergence or resurgence of infectious diseases.
Ecological processes have included: niche invasion, biodiversity loss or animal species extinction, habitat
degradation, loss of predator species, or alteration or replacement of animal
host population densities.
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS
It is well established that losses in biodiversity are occurring globally at all
levels, from ecosystems through species, populations and genes.
The current rate of species extinction is higher than at any time in the last 65
million years, and there is an increasing trend for conversion of naturally occurring,
species-rich ecosystems into more intensively managed habitats, with
reduced biodiversity. The extent of loss of genetic diversity is less well understood, although recorded losses in agricultural
genetic diversity are widespread.
. Sumber: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Connecting ecosystems and their services with environmental and social security. Rik Leemans. Wageningen
University