key components of a green transportation measure reid ewing dept. of city and metropolitan planning...
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Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure
Reid EwingDept. of City and Metropolitan Planning
University of Utah
www.support.smartgrowthamerica.org/growing_cooler
Climate Change Is the Ultimate Green Issue
Chapter 3
Climate Change Impacts at 2 to 3°C
More than 1/3 of species at risk of extinction (corals, polar bears…)
Amazon rainforest & Great Lakes ecosystem at risk of collapse
Hundreds of millions displaced from coastal areas, at risk of hunger
Partial deglaciation of Greenland Ice Sheet expected to begin: sea level to increase 4-6 meters over centuries to millennia
Global Warming Fingerprints
Hurricanes Ophelia, Nate, and Maria were among 15 hurricanes that raged across the
Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and
Caribbean in 2005.
Global Warming Fingerprints
Global Warming Fingerprints
J. Madsen and E. Figdor, When It Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in the United States, Environment America Research & Policy Center, December 2007.http://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/oy/ws/oywshWAwZy-EXPsabQKd4A/When-It-Rains-It-Pours----US---WEB.pdf
Energy Bill: CAFE & -10% Fuel GHG by 2025
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005
= 1
00%
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and sources cited in Growing Cooler .
CO2
2020 New 35 MPG
Fuel GHG:-10%
CO2 Target
1990
VMT Growth to Wipe Out Energy Bill Savings
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005
= 1
00%
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and sources cited in Growing Cooler .
CO2
2020 New 35 MPG
VMT
CO2 Target
1990
Fuel GHG:-10%
Chapter 4
Main Questions Addressed
1. What reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is possible in the United States with compact development rather than continuing urban sprawl?
2. What reduction in CO2 emissions will accompany such a reduction in VMT?
3. What policy changes will be required to shift the dominant land development pattern from sprawl to compact development?
Portland vs. Raleigh
35% Less VMT with Compact Development
14.7
21.5 22.020.3
22.919.9
15.2
26.3
33.2
28.9 29.2
33.4
28.9
22.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
New Y
ork,
NY
Provid
ence
, RI
San F
ranc
isco,
CA
Honol
ulu, H
I
Bosto
n, M
A
Portla
nd, O
R
New O
rlean
s, LA
Dallas
-For
t Wor
th-,
TX
Knoxv
ille, T
N
Green
ville
--Spa
rtanb
urg,
SC
Atlant
a, G
A
Raleig
h--D
urha
m, N
C
Green
sbor
o--W
inston
-Sal
em, N
C
Rivers
ide--S
an B
erna
rdino
, CA
VM
T p
er C
apit
a
Southern Village (40% lower)
Answer to 1st Question
20-40% VMT Reduction for Each Increment of Compact
Development
Doing the Math through 2050
60-90% Compactx
67% New Developmentx
30% VMT Reduction=
12-18% Reduction in Metropolitan VMT
Add Smart Growth -15% VMT 2030 CO2 is 14% below 1990
40%50%60%
70%80%90%
100%
110%120%130%140%
150%160%170%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005
= 1
00%
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6, stock model calculations and sources cited in Growing Cooler .
CO2
VMT:-15%
CO2 Target
1990
2030 New 50 MPG
Fuel GHG:-20%
Chapter 8
What Would It Take?
What would it take to reach the 2030 CO2 reduction target of 33 percent below 1990 levels?
Will compact development with supportive transportation policies be enough?
If not, how much VMT reduction must be achieved through pricing, and what price changes would be required?
Urban VMT Reduction
Elasticities of VMT with Respect to Policy Variables
Change in Annual Growth Rates of Policy Variables (% above/below Trend)
Effect on Annual VMT Growth Rate (% below Trend)
Population density –0.30 1 –7.7%Highway lane miles 0.55 –1 –11.4%Transit revenue miles –0.06 2.5 –4.6%Real fuel price –0.17 2.7 –14.4%
Compact Development+
Transit +
Road Pricing-
Highway Expansion=
38% VMT reduction by 2030
No Ballot Measure Can Be Considered Green If It
Includes a Lot of New Money for Highways
1995 Report on Induced Travel (with Minority View)
Short-Term Supply and Demand
Short-Term Increases in Traffic
New Trips
More Distant Destinations
Mode Shifts
Route Shifts*
* Most important effect according to Dowling et al., 1994
Long-Term Supply and Demand
Long-Term Increases in Traffic
Higher Car Ownership
Reduced Transit Service
Activity Location Shifts*
* Most important effect according to Cervero, 2002
Growth of Traffic Over Time
Cervero’s Bottom Lines
“…the preponderance of research suggests that induced-demand effects are significant, with an appreciable share of added capacity being absorbed by increases in traffic.”
“All that can be said with certainty is that induced-demand effects exist … and they accumulate over time.”
Average Elasticities
Facility-Specific Studies
Areawide Studies
Short-Term 0 0.4
Medium-Term 0.27 NA
Long-Term 0.63 0.73
No Transit Measure Can Be Considered Green Unless It Is Coupled with Transit-Oriented
Development
What is TOD?
TOD is widely defined as compact, mixed-use development near transit facilities with high-quality walking environments, not necessarily at the expense of automobile access.
More Than 100 TODs in USA
High Mode Shares for TOD Residents
Introducing the 3Ds
Density
33 Units per Acre (gross)
15 Units per Acre
Diversity
Seamless Pattern
Design
Simple Correlations with Design Variables
Pedestrian-Friendly Design
Pedestrian-Friendly Design
Effect of Density – Bay Area Rail
Effect of Diversity
Effect of Design