key developments in automotive catalysts
TRANSCRIPT
Capital Markets Event
Seoul, 23 May 2012
Key developments in Automotive
Catalysts
2
What is an automotive catalyst?
Toxic pollutants
•
Carbon Monoxide (CO)•
Hydrocarbons (HC, NMOG)•
Nitrogen Oxides (NOx
)•
Particulate Matter (PM)
Non-toxic by-products
•
Carbon Dioxide (CO2
)•
Water (H2
O)•
Nitrogen gas (N2
)
Combustion engines produce toxic emissions due to incomplete combustion of fuel and the generation of by-products
Automotive catalysts are needed for reducing these toxic emissions
Legislation enforces this by setting emission limits for vehicles
3
Umicore Automotive Catalysts
business drivers
Growing global light duty vehicle production
•
Light duty vehicles (LDV): passenger cars, SUVs and light trucks
•
Heavy duty diesel (HDD): trucks and buses
•
Non-road applications
Emission legislation and air quality standards are becoming more stringent in developed and emerging markets
CO2
emission reduction
•
Impacts engine complexity and fuel types used in different regions
•
Determines choice of powertrain
4
Global light duty vehicle production outlook
Car production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: Umicore estimate based on external data sources
[M vehicles]
Middle East/AfricaSouth AmericaSouth AsiaChina
Car production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: Umicore estimate based on external data sources
[M vehicles]
Japan/Korea
North America
Europe
Established Markets Emerging Markets
Source: Umicore estimates based on external databases
5
Global powertrain
development
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) remains dominant
Contains combustion engine
Requires catalyst system
Car production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Source: Umicore estimate based on external data sources
EV (Electric Vehicle)PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)HEV (Hybrid Electric Vehicle)ICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasoline (Internal Combustion Engine)ICE diesel
[M vehicles]
6
Global emission legislation present
in most regions and becoming more stringent
US regulation
EU regulation
Japanese regulation
No legislation
EU inspired regulation
7
Regional positions
Market leader
(#1 or #2 position)
Smaller player
(distant #3)
Circles indicative of 2011 light duty vehicle production volumes
(≠
catalyst revenues)
Umicore’s global leadership position
NorthNorth
AmericaAmerica
EuropeEurope
ChinaChina
KoreaKorea
SouthSouth
AmericaAmerica
JapanJapan
IndiaIndia
RussiaRussia
AustraliaAustralia
8
Umicore’s global footprint in automotive catalysts
Burlington
Canada
Tulsa
USAHimeji
Japan
Onsan
Korea
Ansan
Korea
Suzhou
China
Rheinfelden
GermanyKarlskoga
SwedenHanau
GermanyFlorange
France
Americana
Brazil
Auburn Hills
USA
Port Elisabeth
South Africa
Production plant R&D / Technology development centre
Production plant
Production plant & R&D / Technology development centre
R&D / Technology
development centre
Impact of CO2
regulation
10
Challenging CO2
emission targets
will push the use of advanced engine configurations
Advanced engine configurations
•
Down-sized turbo-charged gasoline engines
•
Gasoline direct injection
•
Lean burning gasoline engines
•
Diesel
•
Hybrid electric vehicles
All these configurations require complex catalyst solutions
95
Europe
-38%154 152
USA
-37%240
109
Japan
-23%141145
China
-22%185
Source: Continental (2011)
CO2
emission targets for light duty vehicles[g/km]
130
181
125
167
2010
2015
2020
2010
2015
2020
2010
2015
2020
2010
2015
2020
actual
proposed
enacted
estimated
11
Downsized turbo-charged direct injection
gasoline engines are being implemented more widely
Turbo-charged Direct Injection (DI) engines enable reduced fuel consumption
•
By reduced engine displacement and decreased engine speed
•
By flexible combustion process
•
By significant torque increase, esp. at low rpm
Profile of exhaust gases is different
•
Hydrocarbons (HC) emissions increase
•
NOx
emissions decrease
•
Exhaust gas temperature range increase due to heat sink -
turbo charger effect
Catalyst requirements more complex
•
Lower light-off temperature for the catalyst
•
Catalyst bed temperatures above 1000°C require greater durability
•
High dynamic lambda behaviour
12
Lean combustion provides the best fuel economy
Lean burning conditions offer better combustion properties
•
Principle already used in diesel cars
•
Introduced in lean burning gasoline engines
•
Works in oxygen-rich environment
Direct NOx
reduction with excess oxygen
is not possible
•
Engine optimisation offers limited possibilities
NOx
aftertreatment solutions required in most cases
•
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)
•
NOx
Storage Catalyst (NSC)
Excess of oxygen
Lean exhaustNo oxygen
Rich exhaust
Lambda
TWC
conversion
1
NOx HC
CO
TWC Lean burning
Operating range
EURO 6 NOx
limit
NOx
engine output
CO2
emission
1
CO2
advantage
50% NOx
reductionCO2
penalties
CO2
benefits
12
2
NOx
aftertreatment
13
Electrification of the powertrain
impacts catalyst size and catalyst complexity
ICE HEV PHEV EV
Normal Start-stop Mild FullParallel
systemRange
extenderBEV FCEV
Relative
size +++ +++ +++ ++ ++ +No emission
control catalyst
Relative complexity + + + ++ +++ +
ELECTRIFICATION
14
CO
em
issi
on [m
g/s]
050
100150200250300
NO
x em
issi
on[m
g/s]
0
20
40
60
Vehi
cle
spee
d [k
m/h
]
04080
120
Time [s]0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Engi
nesp
eed
[rpm
]
01000
Hybrid powertrains
require
new operational conditions for the ICE and the catalyst
Engine-stop phases causes significant cooling of the emission control system
•
Lower catalyst light-off temperature required
•
High temperature stability especially required for gasoline applications
Engine restarts cause very high emissions peaks
Emission control for hybrid applications needs dedicated solutions
Market status in Europe
16
Production in 2014 expected to reach record 2008 level
CO2
targets drive fuel efficiency
•
130g/km, phasing in in 2012, full compliance by 2015
•
95 g/km further reduction by 2020
•
Engine configurations changing
•
Diesel should keep market share of ~50%
•
Gradual introduction of electrified vehicles
•
Downsized turbo-charged gasoline direction injection should grow fast
EURO 6 legislation comes into force in 2014
•
Air quality requirements in cities drive NOX
aftertreatment introduction
for diesel
•
Particulate emissions regulation could drive Gasoline Particulate Filter (GPF) requirement
Moderate growth of light duty vehicle production
expected in Europe
Car production
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011
2015
2019
XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE gasoline DIICE diesel
[M vehicles]
Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources
17
Strengthening EURO 6 NOx
limits for diesel cars
require NOx
aftertreatment systems
0.18 g/km
0.08 g/km
NOx
0.25 g/km
EURO 4 EURO 5 EURO 6
2010 2015
0.5 g/km
EURO 3
20052000
-84%
18
EURO 5 EURO 6
Diesel NOx
aftertreatment system concepts
NSC cDPF H2
S
slip
DOC cDPF
DOC cDPF SCR SCRUrea
Replacement of DOC by NOx
storage catalyst (NSC)
and addition of Sulphur slip catalyst
Addition of Urea-based
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)
Diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC)
with catalysed Diesel
Particulate Filter (cDPF)
2014
19
Strengthening EURO 6 PM limits
may require gasoline particulate filters
EURO 6 legislations addresses the number of particulates, with a transition period of 3 years for gasoline engines
Gasoline Direct Injection (DI) engines have higher Particulate Matter (PM) emissions
(in number of particles) compared to diesel engines with Diesel Particulate Filter
Euro 5 Euro 6bEuro 5b Euro 6c
2008 2011 2014 20202017
Diesel: 6.1011/kmGasoline DI: 6.1012/km
Diesel & Gasoline DI: 6.1011/km
PN [#/km]
Gasolin
e DI
Diesel
with DPF Gasoline PFI
1010 1011 1012 1013 1014
0.1
EURO 6c
PM limit
PM [
mg/
km]
EURO 6b PM limit
10
1
20
EURO 6cEURO 5 / EURO 6
Potential Gasoline particulate
reduction system concepts
cGPF
TWC
TWC cGPF
All-in-one catalysed
Gasoline Particulate Filter
Combination of TWC and cGPF
Three Way Catalyst (TWC)
2017
21
Umicore’s market position in Europe
European catalyst market should continue to outpace vehicle production due to the introduction of new legislation
Umicore has a strong leadership position in the European market
•
Catalyst production in Europe started in 1974
Umicore has strong technology portfolio and system knowledge available to support the market requirements
•
First to market with NOx
storage catalysts and SCR systems
•
Strong position in cGPFs
established, critical IP generated and patents granted
•
R&D centre supports development programmes with OEMs
New contract wins for EURO 6 diesel legislation (related to NOx
aftertreatment systems) should allow Umicore to further strengthen market position
Karlskoga
plant, Sweden
Florange
plant, France
Rheinfelden
plant, Germany
Market status in North America
23
Moderate growth of light duty vehicle production
expected in North America
Production in 2016 expected to reach record 2000 level
Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulation
•
35.5mpg (miles per gallon) to be reached by 2016 (now 23.1 –
27.5)
•
From 2017 to 2025 fuel economy will increase to an average of 54.5mpg
•
CAFE regulation pushes towards more efficient engine types
•
Focus on turbocharged gasoline direct injection
•
Diesel market acceptance is increasing gradually
New Emission legislation
•
EPA Tier 3 is currently under discussion
•
LEV (Low Emissions Vehicle) III cuts emissions by 50%
of current most stringent SULEV legislation
•
Green House Gas Standards (GHG) includes standards for secondary
emissions
(N2
O, methane and particulates)
Car production
0
5
10
15
20
2011
2015
2019
XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE gasoline DIICE diesel
[M vehicles]
Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources
24
Gradual implementation of LEV III (SULEV20)
emission standards to be reflected in vehicle fleet
100%
0%Sa
les
shar
e
2010 20202010
Sales share to be reached
to meet emission norms
Source: CARB 2010
70
20
125
ULE
V
SULE
V160
LEV
-88%NM
OG
*+N
Ox
[mg/
mile
]
30
ULE
V70
SULE
V20
50
ULE
V50
Emission categories
* NMOG: Non-Methane Organic Gases
25
ULEV
SULEV
SULEV20
Various emission categories require
more and more advanced catalyst technologies
TWCTWC TWC
TWC TWC
TWCTWC TWC
•
Low light-off
•
On-board diagnostics
•System requirements
•
Increased Hydro Carbon (NMOG)
performance
•
Robustness over lifetime
•
Combined NMOG/NOx
performance
•
Stricter particulate mass standards
•
Durability increased to 150,000 miles
26
Umicore’s market position in North America
LEVIII and EPA Tier III pending legislation offers catalyst growth opportunities
Umicore has a leadership position in the North American market
•
Catalyst production in North America started in 1983
•
Acquisition of Delphi catalysts activities in 2007
Strong technology portfolio and system knowledge available to support the market requirements
•
State of the art technology development centre in Auburn Hills to manage local development programs
•
R&D centre in Tulsa to support local engine development
Burlington plant, Canada
Auburn Hills tech centre, USA
Tulsa plant, USA
Market status in Japan / Korea
28
Moderate growth of domestic light duty vehicle
market expected in Japan and Korea
Korean and Japanese OEMs strongly positioned worldwide
•
Japanese OEMs have strong growth path globally and especially South East Asia
•
Strong position of Hyundai/Kia
in Korea
with global growth path
Decision making power remains strongly in the home country
•
Strong local automotive catalyst presence is therefore essential
OEM’s development focus for domestic and global markets
•
Gasoline ICE mainly
•
Strong focus on electrification
Emission legislation in Japan changing beyond 2015
Car production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011
2015
2019
XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE gasoline DIICE diesel
Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources
[M vehicles]
29
Umicore’s market position
in Japan and Korea
Korean and Japanese OEMs driven by growing export markets
Umicore has a leadership position in Korea
•
Catalyst production started in 1987
Distant follower in Japan
•
Catalyst production started in 1993
•
Core strategy to increase position with Japanese OEMs
•
First successes gained, mainly related to diesel for export markets
Umicore is established in Japan and Korea through
•
Local production facilities fully integrated into the global network
•
Technology development centres in Korea and in Japan and R&D centre in Japan
Umicore supplies catalysts for various hybrid vehicles including
PHEV
Onsan
plant, Korea
Himeji
plant, Japan
Market status in China
31
Continued strong growth of vehicle production expected
Powertrain
development mainly focused on conventional gasoline engines
Diesel gaining momentum
Legislation follows European norms with a 3 to 5 year lag
Continued strong growth of light duty vehicle
production expected in China
Car production
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2011
2015
2019
XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE gasoline DIICE diesel
[M vehicles]
Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources
32
Euro 3 Euro 5Euro 4 Euro 6
C3 C4
C3 C5C4
Chinese emission legislation closely following
European standards
2000 2005 2010 20202015
BeijingChina
gasoline
C5+
C3 C5C4 C5+
C3 C4
C5
Countrywide
Beijing
Countrywide
Europe
China
diesel
C4
C3
33
Umicore’s market position
in China
Umicore has a leadership position in China
Local production capacity since 2005
Platform exposure with both global and domestic OEMs
New production line for LDV and HDD being built in Suzhou
(commissioning in Q3 2012)
Technology development centre under construction in Suzhou
(commissioning in Q3 2012)
Suzhou
plant, China
Suzhou
tech centre, China
Market status in South America
35
South American market drivers
South American market for light-duty vehicles is growing
•
Constant growth since early 2000
•
Forecasts show local manufacturing of
6 million vehicles by 2017 (IHS)
Strongest market is Brazil
•
Brazil emission legislation with upcoming PL6 regulations
•
Flex Fuel systems are dominant for passenger vehicles and light duty power trains
•
Driven by the Brazilian energy portfolio
•
Specific flex fuel Technologies
Car production
0
2
4
6
8
2011
2015
2019
XEVICE flex fuel, CNG, LPGICE gasolineICE diesel
[M vehicles]
Source: Umicore estimatebased on external data sources
36
Umicore’s market position
in South America
Umicore has a strong leadership position in the market
•
Pioneer for Catalyst production in South America, started in 1991
•
Launching of Vehicle Emission Tech Centre in 1992
Umicore has strong technology portfolio for bio-fuels and can provide system development capabilities locally
Investment in new vehicle test cell in Americana, Brazil was recently approved to help OEMs meet the upcoming PL6 and PL7 regulations
Americana plant, China
Market status in India, Russia and South-East Asia
38
Markets in Russia, India and South-East Asia
Car production growing with economic development of these countries
Legislation currently at low level
•
Following European legislation with 5-7 year delay
•
Very low durability requirements
•
No in-use control
Umicore ready to invest when markets develop further
On-
and non-road HDD market
40
Expansion of scope of emission norms
1985 2006 20162011/2012
41
More stringent legislation enforces the use of emission control systems worldwide
USA/Canada
On-road
2017
US HDD fuel economy
Non-road
2014-2015
Tier 4 final
Brazil
On-road
2012
EURO IV + DPF / EPA 2007
Non-road
2015-2017
Stage IIA
On-road
2012
EURO V
Chile
On-road
2014
EURO V
Argentina
Europe
On-road
2013
EURO VI
Non-road
2014
Stage IV & Tier 4 final On-road
2015
EURO V
Russia
On-road
2015
EURO VI
Korea
Non-road
2013
Tier 4
On-road
2014
Post JP 2009
Japan
On-road
2013
EURO IV
China
On-road
2015
BS IV
India
42
EURO IV/V
HDD Global Technology Trends
Advanced legislation require PM and NOx
aftertreatment
US 2007
EURO IV/V
JP 2005
US 2010
EURO VI
Post JP 2009
DOC cDPF or
SCRDOC cDPF
SCR
2009 2010 2013
SCRDOC cDPF
or SCR
2011 2012 201520142008 2016
USA
Canada
Europe
Japan
India
Brazil
China
…
2007 2017
SCRDOC cDPF
DOC cDPF
DOC cDPF
DOC
43
Umicore’s market position in Heavy Duty Diesel
Umicore’s position in on-
and non-road HDD
•
Decided in 2005 to step in HDD market and started R&D efforts
•
Technology gap with competitors closed by 2008-2009 followed by market positioning
•
Contract wins in all regions with relatively more success in Europe and emerging markets
•
Umicore continues to position itself for additional HDD business
to be awarded in the near future
Technology, system design and customer intimacy are key for success
•
Existing HDD test capability in Korea, Japan, Brazil, Europe and
North America
•
New technology development centre in China to be commissioned in
Q3 2012
HDD production capability being established in North America, Europe and China
•
Dedicated HDD facility in Florange, France will be commissioned mid 2012
•
Expansion of flexible capacity in Suzhou, China will be commissioned in Q3 2012
Conclusion
45
Umicore Automotive Catalysts
Automotive catalysts market set to grow faster than vehicle production
due to more stringent emission legislation in all the major markets
Umicore is a global leader for light duty applications
•
Well positioned in Europe, North America and Korea
•
Strongly positioned in fast growing Chinese and Brazilian markets
•
Aiming to increase position with Japanese OEMs
•
Ready to seize opportunities in India
Umicore is gradually gaining ground in HDD, supported by customer awards
Umicore is continuing to invest in manufacturing and testing capabilities
4646
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains forward-looking information that involves risks and uncertainties, including statements about Umicore’s plans, objectives, expectations and intentions.
Readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements include known and unknown risks and are subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of Umicore.
Should one or more of these risks, uncertainties or contingencies materialize, or should any underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results could vary materially from those anticipated, expected, estimated or projected.
As a result, neither Umicore nor any other person assumes any responsibility for the accuracy of these forward-looking statements.
47
The presenter
Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried
Mueller
Global Technology Director, Research & Technology Umicore AG & Co. KG
Wilfried
Müller
started at the Applied Technology Group Automotive Catalysts of Degussa
AG in 1990. He became the Head of the Global DaimlerChrysler Businessteam
at Degussa/Umicore AG in 1996 and was appointed Director Research & Development NOx-Storage Catalysts Gasoline and Diesel at Umicore AG in 2003. Since 2006 he is the Director System Integration Automotive Catalysts, Light-
and Heavy Duty Vehicles at Umicore AG. Wilfried
holds a Mechanical Engineering diploma with the focus on internal combustion engines (University of Applied Sciences,
Frankfurt).
