key dow earnings to guide dow’s ups and downs next two or three weeks

8/9/2019 Key Dow Earnings to Guide Dows Ups and Downs Next Two or Three Weeks

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

covers over 5,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found HERE.

July 13, 2010 Key Dow Earnings to Guide Dows Ups and Downs Next Two or Three Weeks

For US Treasury yields its one auction down, two to go. Gold stability needs a close above mysemiannual pivot at $1218.7. Crude oil remains below my annual pivot at $77.05. The euro isbelow monthly resistance at 1.2670. Dow strength targets my annual pivot at 10,379 if earningsfrom Intel, JP Morgan, Bank of America and General Electric follows Alcoas lead. Earningsresults masks brewing below the surface at many US companies, particularly those in the ITbusiness. I handicap Alcoa and Intel.

10-Year Note Semiannual and quarterly supports are 3.479 and 3.486 with daily and annual pivots at3.026 and 2.999, and weekly, annual, quarterly and semiannual resistances at 2.858, 2.813, 2.495 and2.249. The low yield for the move was 2.879 set on July 1st, and was a failed test of my 2.999 and2.813 annual risky levels. The $35 billion in 3-Year notes had a relatively strong bid at 1.055%. Thebid to cover was 3.20 and the Indirect Bid was a strong 41%. Today the US Treasury sells $21 billion10-Year notes, and then $13 billion 30-Year bonds on Wednesday.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold Daily and quarterly supports are $1170.0 and $1140.9 with annual support at $1115.2.My weekly and semiannual pivots are $1210.3 and $1218.7 with semiannual and monthly resistancesat $1260.8 and $1279.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21stwas a test of Junesmonthly resistance, as a significant top for gold. Gold is below its 50-day and 21-day simplemoving averages at $1217.4 and $1228.0.


Nymex Crude Oil Daily and quarterly supports are $71.05 and $56.63 with weekly and annual pivotsat $76.93 and $77.05, and monthly and semiannual resistances at $79.36 and $83.94. The 200-daysimple moving average provides a resistance at $77.27.



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The Euro Weekly support is 1.2422 with monthly pivot at 1.2670, daily resistance at 1.2939, and the200-day simple moving average at 1.3720. Monthly and quarterly supports are 1.2035 and 1.1424.


Daily Dow: Daily and weekly supports are 10,068, 9,635 with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simplemoving averages at 10,140, 10,285 and 10,368, and my annual pivot at 10,379. MOJO is rising so thedaily chart is positive with closes above the 21-day. Semiannual and monthly resistances are 10,558and 10,891 after my annual resistance at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th high at 11,258, which

marked the end of the bear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg of themulti-year bear market that began in October 2007 targeting 8,500 before 11,500.



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Handicapping Earnings from the Dow - My overall opinion is that the Dows 512 point run-up lastweek raises the bar for earnings for the second quarter of 2010. We know that the economy has hit asoft patch and in a speech on Monday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is worried about bank lending tobusinesses, especially small businesses. Most companies regardless of size are becoming morecautious with expansion plans, which will be a drag on economic growth in the quarters ahead. The bigcompanies are hoarding cash, they are not spending on capital improvements and they are not hiring.Small businesses who want a loan cannot get loans from more than 50% of the community banks dueto their overexposures to commercial real estate loans.

I exchanged instant messages from a friend who is in the global IT business. He estimates that aroundthe globe there are 25 million IT projects that are on hold, or companies are having planning meetingsthis month to decide to put projects on hold. A slowdown in IT spending will likely hurt earnings from thelikes of Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT). Companies are reluctant to shift from WindowsXP, but ordering a new PC with XP is becoming more difficult as Microsoft holds off support in an

attempt to shift users to Vista or Windows 7. Even upgrades for bandwidth are not coming through fromAT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) or the smaller wireless providers. Even Internet advertising is beginning to slowdown, which could be seen in earnings reports from Google (GOOG) and Yahoo! (YHOO).Handicapping This Weeks Key Earnings Reports

Alcoa (AA) is rated a HOLD according to ValuEngine with fair value at $17.22, which makes the stock36.9% undervalued. The daily chart for Alcoa shows rising MOJO with the stock below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $10.95, $11.47 and $13.35. My weekly value level is$9.73 with semiannual risky level at $12.20. Alcoa shares rallied in after hours trading and holdingthe 21-day at $10.95 targets the 50-day at $11.47..



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Intel Inc (INTC) is rated a BUY according to ValuEngine with fair value at $27.17, which makes thestock 24.3% undervalued. The daily chart for Intel shows rising MOJO with the stock above its 21-daysimple moving average at $20.44, which targets the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages at

$20.77 and $21.08. My weekly value level is $19.23 with semiannual risky level at $21.59. Intel is inthe ValuTrader model portfolio with an entry of $19.01 tested on July 1st, which is a greatexample of my Buy and Trade strategy.


Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategist

www.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

key dow earnings to guide dow’s ups and downs next two or three weeks

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