key drivers of the energy future
DESCRIPTION
key drivers of the energy future. GDP & pop. growth urbanisation demand mgmt. Demand Growth. Supply Challenges. Technology and policy. Security of Supply. Environmental Impacts. energy use grows with economic development. energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004). US. Australia. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Technology and policy
Demand Growth
• GDP & pop. growth
• urbanisation• demand mgmt.
Security of Supply
Environmental Impacts
Supply Challenges
key drivers of the energy future
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
GDP per capita (PPP, $2000)
Prim
ary
Ener
gy p
er c
api
ta (G
J)
Source: UN and DOE EIARussia data 1992-2004 only
energy use grows with economic development
US
Australia
Russia
BrazilChina
India
S. Korea
Mexico
Ireland
Greece
France
UKJapan
Malaysia
energy demand and GDP per capita (1980-2004)
demographic transformationsworld population
0
2
4
6
8
10
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1998 2050
2003 2050
source: United Nations
6.3billion
8.9billion
Oceania
AfricaN-America
S-America
Europe
Asia
Oceania
AfricaN-America
S-America
Europe
Asia
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006
Notes: 1. OECD refers to North America, W. Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia and NZ 2. Transition Economies refers to FSU and Eastern European nations 3. Developing Countries is all other nations including China, India etc.
Global Energy Demand Growth by Region (1971-2030)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1971 1990 2004 2015 2030
OECD Transition Economies Developing Countries
Ene
rgy
Dem
and
(Mto
e)
Global energy demand is projected to increase by just over one-half between now and 2030 – an average annual rate of 1.6%. Over 70% of this increased demand comes from developing countries
annual primary energy demand 1971-2003
Source IEA, 200 (Excludes biomass)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1971 2002 2030
Source: IEA WEO 2004Notes: 1. Power includes heat generated at power plants 2. Other sectors includes residential, agricultural and service
Global Energy Demand Growth by Sector (1971-2030)
En
erg
y D
em
and (
bnboe)
growing energy demand is projected
Key: - industry- transport - power - other sectors
Demand Growth
• GDP & pop. growth
• urbanisation• demand mgmt.
Security of Supply
Environmental
Constraints
Supply Challenges
• significant resources
• non-conventionals
key drivers of the energy future
Technology and policy
US energy supply since 1850
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000
RenewablesNuclearGasOilHydroCoalWood
Source: EIA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
27.8%
6.0%6.3%
23.5%
36.4%Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
global primary energy sources
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
BAU (business as usual) projection of primary energy sources
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1980 2004 2010 2015 2030
MtoeOtherRenewables
Biomass &waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case)
’04 – ’30 Annual Growth
Rate (%)
Total
6.5
1.3
2.0
0.7
2.0
1.3
1.8
1.6
Note: ‘Other renewables’ include geothermal, solar, wind, tide and wave energy for electricity generation
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Oil Gas Coal
substantial global fossil resources
R/P Ratio 41 yrs.
R/P Ratio 67 yrs.
R/P Ratio 164 yrs.
Proven Proven
ProvenYet to Find
Yet to Find
Yet to Find
Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates
Unconventional
Unconventional
Reserv
es &
Resou
rces (
bn
boe)
Demand Growth
• GDP & pop. growth
• urbanisation• demand mgmt.
Security of Supply
• dislocation of resources
• import dependence
Environmental Impacts
Supply Challenges
• significant resources• non-conventionals
key drivers of the energy future
Technology and policy
Source: BP Data
significant hydrocarbon resource potential
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
South America
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 North America
Oil Gas Coal
Oil Gas CoalReso
urc
e P
ote
nti
al (b
nb
oe)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Africa
Oil Gas Coal
Reso
urc
e P
ote
nti
al (b
nb
oe)
Reso
urc
e P
ote
nti
al (b
nb
oe)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 FSU
Oil Gas Coal
Reso
urc
e P
ote
nti
al (b
nb
oe)
Gas Europe
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Reso
urc
e P
ote
nti
al (b
nb
oe)
Oil Gas Coal
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Middle East
Oil Gas Coal
Reso
urc
e P
ote
nti
al (b
nb
oe)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Asia
Pacific
Oil Gas CoalReso
urc
e P
ote
nti
al (b
nb
oe)
Key:
- unconventional oil
- conventional oil - gas
- coal
Oil, Gas and Coal Resources by Region (bnboe)
78%
10%
61%
15%
88%
65%
22%
90%
39%
85%
12%
35%
Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves
OIL GAS COAL
3 Largets Energy Markets(N.America + Europe + Asia Pacific)
ROW
dislocation of fossil fuel supply & demand
Source: BP Statistical Review 2006
Demand Growth
• GDP & pop. growth
• urbanisation• demand mgmt.
Security of Supply
• dislocation of resources
• import dependence
Environmental Impacts
• local pollution• climate change
Supply Challenges
• significant resources• non-conventionals
key drivers of the energy future
Technology and policy
climate change and CO2 emissions- CO2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use
- The global temperature is increasing - other indicators of climate change
- There is a plausible causal connection - but ~1% effect in a complex, noisy system- scientific case is complicated by natural variability,
ill-understood forcings
- Impacts of higher CO2 are uncertain- ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed
stabilization target (550 ppm)- Reached by 2050 under BAU
- Precautionary action is warranted- What could the world do?- Will we do it?
crucial facts about CO2 science
• The earth absorbs anthropogenic CO2 at a limited rate– Emissions would have to drop to about half of their current
value by the end of this century to stabilize atmospheric concentration at 550 ppm
– This in the face of a doubling of energy demand in the next 50 years (1.5% per year emissions growth)
• The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is ~ 1000 years– The atmosphere will accumulate emissions during the 21st
Century– Near-term emissions growth can be offset by greater long-
term reductions – Modest emissions reductions only delay the growth of
concentration (20% emissions reduction buys 15 years)
some stabilization scenariosEmissions Concentration
greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 by source
Source: Stern Review, from data drawn from World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-line database version 3.0
Concern relating to Threat of Climate
Change
Con
cern
over
Fu
ture
A
vailab
ilit
y o
f O
il a
nd
G
as
High
High
Low
Low
Adv. Biofuels
Carbon Free H2 for Transport
CTL
GTL
Heavy Oil
EnhancedRecovery
Ultra Deep Water
Arctic
Capture & Storage
Capture & Storage
CNG
Hybrids
C&S
Vehicle Efficiency (e.g. light weighting)
- supply side options
- demand side options
Key:Dieselisation
Conv. Biofuels
two key energy considerations – security & climate
corn ethanol is sub-optimal
• Production does not scale to material impact– 20% of US corn production in 2006 (vs. 6% in 2000) was used to
make ethanol displacing ~2.5% of petrol use – 17% of US corn production was exported in 2006
• The energy and environmental benefits are limited– To make 1 MJ of corn ethanol requires 0.9 MJ of other energy
(0.4 MJ coal, 0.3 MJ gas, 0.04 MJ of nuclear/hydro, 0.05 MJ crude)
– Net CO2 emission of corn ethanol ~18% less than petrol
• Ethanol is not an optimal fuel molecule– Energy density, water, corrosive,…
• There is tremendous scope to improve (energy, economics, emissions)
evaluating power optionsC
on
cern
over
Fu
ture
A
vailab
ilit
y o
f O
il a
nd
G
as
High
High
Low
Low
Hydro
Nuclear
Solar
Wind
Biomass
power sector
Coal
Gas CCGT
Geothermal
Hydrogen Power
Unconventional
Gas
- power generation options- supply option
Key:
Concern relating to Threat of Climate
Change