kgw-the oregonian voter survey oct 2014
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Here's a look at the results of the KGW/Oregonian voter survey.TRANSCRIPT
KGW/TheOregonian
SURVEY OF OREGON VOTERS
2014 General Election 28 OCT 14
Stuart Elway
206-264-1500 x1
.
KGW / OREGONIAN 2014 GENERAL ELECTION P.1 / 2
TOPLINE.docx 10/28/2014 ELWAY RESEARCH, INC.
SAMPLE 403 Likely Voters Voted in at least 1 of previous 4 elections + reported they were likely to vote in this election.
SAMPLE FRAME Registered Voter List
MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR ±5% at the 95% level of confidence
METHOD Telephone / Live Interviewers 19% conducted via cell phone
FIELD DATES October 26-27, 2014
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT [1] 16% [2/] 20% [3] 23% [4] 22% [5] 19%
GENDER: MALE...49% FEMALE...51%
The data are presented here in the same order the questions were asked in the interview The figures in bold type are percentages of respondents who gave each answer. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
1. First, which of these statements describes you: 48 I have already voted 48 I am certain to vote 4 I will probably vote
I may not vote this time. TERM [DK/NA] TERM
2. The first question is about the US Senate race. a) If you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for… b) Did you vote for…
49 Jeff Merkley, Democrat [MERK-ly] 30 Monica Wehby, Republican [WEBBY] 2 Mike Montchalin. Libertarian [mon-CHAY-len] 1 Christine Jean Lugo. Pacific Green Party 13 [UNDECIDED] 5 [WON'T SAY]
3. In the race for Governor, a) if you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for… b) did you vote for
45 John Kitzhaber, Democrat [KITZ-haw-ber] 38 Dennis Richardson, Republican 2 Aaron Auer, Constitution Party [HOUR] 9 [UNDECIDED] 5 [WON'T SAY]
KGW/OREGONIAN 2014 GENERAL ELECTION Page 2 / 2
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4. In the last few weeks, there have been news stories about Governor Kitzhaber's fiancée, Cylvia Hayes. Have you …
63 Heard quite a lot about these stories 23 Heard about them, but haven't paid much attention 13 Not heard about these stories. SKIP TO Q5 1 [DK/NA] SKIP TO Q5
4.1. IF 1-2: Before you heard these stories, were you planning to vote for… [ASKED ONLY OF 346 RESPONDENTS WHO HAD HEARD NEWS STORIES]
49 John Kitzhaber [KITS-haw-ber] 37 Dennis Richardson 1 Aaron Auer [HOUR] 10 Or were you undecided 4 [WON'T SAY]
The next questions are about initiative that will be on the ballot. I will read you the ballot titles. [ROTATE Q5 – Q6 ]
5. Measure 91 Allows possession, manufacture, and sale of marijuana by or to adults, subject to state licensing, regulation, taxation. a)If you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote For or Against Measure 91? b) Did you vote For or Against Measure 91?
44 FOR 46 AGAINST 7 [UNDECIDED 2 [WON'T SAY]
6. Measure 92 Requires food manufacturers, retailers to label "genetically engineered" foods as such; state, citizens may enforce. a) If you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote For or Against Measure 92? b) Did you vote For or Against Measure 92?
42 FOR 48 AGAINST 7 [UNDECIDED] 2 [WON'T SAY]
7. I have just a few last questions for our statistical analysis. How old are you? 9 18-35 18 36-50 40 51-64 30 65+ 3 [NO ANSWER]
8. Are you registered as… 43 A Democrat 36 A Republican 14 Non Affiliated or No party 3 Another party 4 [NO ANSWER]
PROPRIETARY REPORT
CROSSTABULATION TABLES
READING THE CROSSTABULATION TABLES
The crosstabulations are presented in a "banner table" format. Categories of respondents (e.g., "Age," "Gender") are listed across the top of each page (the "banner"). There are several “banners”.
The questions asked in the survey are listed down the left margin. The key in the upper left corner of the table indicates which questions are found on each page.
The figures in each cell are raw numbers and percentages based on the number of respondents in the category at the head of the column.
By reading across the rows, one can compare answers to a question given by the different categories of respondents.
KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
SENATE
TOTAL
VOTER
PARTYID
AREA
(N=)
Voted
Certain
Prob
Dem
Rep
Other
PDXMet
Other
TOTAL
(N=)
403 100
192 100
193 100
18 100
175 100
144 100
84 100
171 100
232 100
SENATE RACE
Montchalin
7 2%
3 2%
3 2%
1 6%
0 0%
3 2%
4 5%
3 2%
4 2%
Merkley
197 49%
90 47%
102 53%
5 28%
152 87%
14 10%
31 37%
98 57%
99 43%
Lugo
6 1%
3 2%
3 2%
0 0%
1 1%
2 1%
3 4%
3 2%
3 1%
Wehby
120 30%
64 33%
54 28%
2 11%
5 3%
95 66%
20 24%
39 23%
81 35%
Undec
53 13%
16 8%
28 15%
9 50%
13 7%
22 15%
18 21%
21 12%
32 14%
Wont Say
20 5%
16 8%
3 2%
1 6%
4 2%
8 6%
8 10%
7 4%
13 6%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
SENATE
TOTAL
AGEBAN
GENDER
(N=)
18-35
36-50
51-64
65+
Male
Female
TOTAL
(N=)
403 100
36 100
71 100
163 100
122 100
196 100
207 100
SENATE RACE
Montchalin
7 2%
1 3%
2 3%
2 1%
1 1%
7 4%
0 0%
Merkley
197 49%
12 33%
43 61%
78 48%
62 51%
77 39%
120 58%
Lugo
6 1%
2 6%
1 1%
2 1%
1 1%
5 3%
1 0%
Wehby
120 30%
9 25%
15 21%
53 33%
39 32%
74 38%
46 22%
Undec
53 13%
9 25%
7 10%
21 13%
13 11%
24 12%
29 14%
Wont Say
20 5%
3 8%
3 4%
7 4%
6 5%
9 5%
11 5%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
GOVERNOR
TOTAL
VOTER
PARTYID
AREA
(N=)
Voted
Certain
Prob
Dem
Rep
Other
PDXMet
Other
TOTAL
(N=)
403 100
192 100
193 100
18 100
175 100
144 100
84 100
171 100
232 100
GOV RACE
Richardson
154 38%
82 43%
68 35%
4 22%
15 9%
111 77%
28 33%
58 34%
96 41%
Auer
7 2%
2 1%
4 2%
1 6%
3 2%
1 1%
3 4%
0 0%
7 3%
Kitzaber
183 45%
82 43%
94 49%
7 39%
137 78%
19 13%
27 32%
91 53%
92 40%
Undec
38 9%
9 5%
25 13%
4 22%
14 8%
9 6%
15 18%
13 8%
25 11%
Wont Say
21 5%
17 9%
2 1%
2 11%
6 3%
4 3%
11 13%
9 5%
12 5%
[4] HAYES STORIES
A Lot
252 63%
125 65%
121 63%
6 33%
117 67%
85 59%
50 60%
122 71%
130 56%
Heard
94 23%
49 26%
40 21%
5 28%
35 20%
40 28%
19 23%
32 19%
62 27%
Not
51 13%
13 7%
31 16%
7 39%
21 12%
17 12%
13 15%
15 9%
36 16%
DKNA
6 1%
5 3%
1 1%
0 0%
2 1%
2 1%
2 2%
2 1%
4 2%
HEARD
346 100
174 100
161 100
11 100
152 100
125 100
69 100
154 100
192 100
[41] VOTE BEFORE
STORIES
Richardson
128 37%
74 43%
51 32%
3 27%
13 9%
92 74%
23 33%
48 31%
80 42%
Auer
3 1%
2 1%
1 1%
0 0%
1 1%
1 1%
1 1%
1 1%
2 1%
Kitzaber
168 49%
78 45%
88 55%
2 18%
125 82%
18 14%
25 36%
87 56%
81 42%
Undec
33 10%
11 6%
19 12%
3 27%
10 7%
10 8%
13 19%
13 8%
20 10%
Wont Say
14 4%
9 5%
2 1%
3 27%
3 2%
4 3%
7 10%
5 3%
9 5%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
GOVERNOR
TOTAL
AGEBAN
GENDER
(N=)
18-35
36-50
51-64
65+
Male
Female
TOTAL
(N=)
403 100
36 100
71 100
163 100
122 100
196 100
207 100
GOV RACE
Richardson
154 38%
8 22%
21 30%
69 42%
51 42%
92 47%
62 30%
Auer
7 2%
3 8%
2 3%
2 1%
0 0%
4 2%
3 1%
Kitzaber
183 45%
11 31%
42 59%
73 45%
56 46%
71 36%
112 54%
Undec
38 9%
11 31%
4 6%
9 6%
10 8%
18 9%
20 10%
Wont Say
21 5%
3 8%
2 3%
10 6%
5 4%
11 6%
10 5%
[4] HAYES STORIES
A Lot
252 63%
16 44%
34 48%
111 68%
81 66%
123 63%
129 62%
Heard
94 23%
8 22%
26 37%
31 19%
29 24%
42 21%
52 25%
Not
51 13%
12 33%
11 15%
18 11%
10 8%
28 14%
23 11%
DKNA
6 1%
0 0%
0 0%
3 2%
2 2%
3 2%
3 1%
HEARD
346 100
24 100
60 100
142 100
110 100
165 100
181 100
[41] VOTE BEFORE
STORIES
Richardson
128 37%
8 33%
16 27%
55 39%
45 41%
74 45%
54 30%
Auer
3 1%
2 8%
0 0%
1 1%
0 0%
2 1%
1 1%
Kitzaber
168 49%
9 38%
38 63%
66 46%
53 48%
67 41%
101 56%
Undec
33 10%
4 17%
5 8%
16 11%
7 6%
15 9%
18 10%
Wont Say
14 4%
1 4%
1 2%
4 3%
5 5%
7 4%
7 4%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
GOVERNOR
TOTAL
[4] HAYES STORIES
(N=)
A Lot
Heard
Not
DKNA
TOTAL
(N=)
403 100
252 100
94 100
51 100
6 100
GOV RACE
Richardson
154 38%
97 38%
39 41%
17 33%
1 17%
Auer
7 2%
3 1%
0 0%
4 8%
0 0%
Kitzaber
183 45%
122 48%
41 44%
18 35%
2 33%
Undec
38 9%
21 8%
7 7%
10 20%
0 0%
Wont Say
21 5%
9 4%
7 7%
2 4%
3 50%
HEARD
346 100
252 100
94 100
0 0%
0 0%
[41] VOTE BEFORE
STORIES
Richardson
128 37%
89 35%
39 41%
0 0%
0 0%
Auer
3 1%
3 1%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
Kitzaber
168 49%
125 50%
43 46%
0 0%
0 0%
Undec
33 10%
24 10%
9 10%
0 0%
0 0%
Wont Say
14 4%
11 4%
3 3%
0 0%
0 0%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
HAYES IMPACT
TOTAL
VOTER
PARTYID
AREA
(N=)
Voted
Certain
Prob
Dem
Rep
Other
PDXMet
Other
HEARD
346 100
174 100
161 100
11 100
152 100
125 100
69 100
154 100
192 100
Hayes Stories
Impact
JK>JK
154 45%
72 41%
80 50%
2 18%
118 78%
15 12%
21 30%
78 51%
76 40%
JK>DR
3 1%
2 1%
1 1%
0 0%
1 1%
1 1%
1 1%
1 1%
2 1%
JK>UND
6 2%
1 1%
4 2%
1 9%
3 2%
2 2%
1 1%
4 3%
2 1%
DR>DR
122 35%
71 41%
49 30%
2 18%
11 7%
90 72%
21 30%
46 30%
76 40%
DR>JK
6 2%
2 1%
4 2%
0 0%
3 2%
2 2%
1 1%
2 1%
4 2%
DR>UND
8 2%
3 2%
4 2%
1 9%
0 0%
6 5%
2 3%
4 3%
4 2%
AA>AA
2 1%
1 1%
1 1%
0 0%
1 1%
1 1%
0 0%
0 0%
2 1%
AA>UND
1 0%
1 1%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
1 1%
0 0%
1 1%
UND>DR
1 0%
1 1%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
1 1%
1 1%
0 0%
UND>AA
3 1%
1 1%
1 1%
1 9%
1 1%
1 1%
1 1%
1 1%
2 1%
UND>JK
8 2%
4 2%
4 2%
0 0%
4 3%
1 1%
3 4%
7 5%
1 1%
UND>UND
32 9%
15 9%
13 8%
4 36%
10 7%
6 5%
16 23%
10 6%
22 11%
Kitzaber Impact
SUPT SAME
154 45%
72 41%
80 50%
2 18%
118 78%
15 12%
21 30%
78 51%
76 40%
LOSE
9 3%
3 2%
5 3%
1 9%
4 3%
3 2%
2 3%
5 3%
4 2%
GAIN
14 4%
6 3%
8 5%
0 0%
7 5%
3 2%
4 6%
9 6%
5 3%
OPP SAME
169 49%
93 53%
68 42%
8 73%
23 15%
104 83%
42 61%
62 40%
107 56%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
HAYES IMPACT
TOTAL
AGEBAN
GENDER
(N=)
18-35
36-50
51-64
65+
Male
Female
HEARD
346 100
24 100
60 100
142 100
110 100
165 100
181 100
Hayes Stories
Impact
JK>JK
154 45%
8 33%
37 62%
60 42%
48 44%
59 36%
95 52%
JK>DR
3 1%
1 4%
0 0%
0 0%
2 2%
2 1%
1 1%
JK>UND
6 2%
0 0%
1 2%
4 3%
1 1%
2 1%
4 2%
DR>DR
122 35%
7 29%
16 27%
52 37%
43 39%
70 42%
52 29%
DR>JK
6 2%
0 0%
0 0%
4 3%
2 2%
4 2%
2 1%
DR>UND
8 2%
1 4%
1 2%
5 4%
0 0%
4 2%
4 2%
AA>AA
2 1%
1 4%
0 0%
1 1%
0 0%
1 1%
1 1%
AA>UND
1 0%
0 0%
1 2%
0 0%
0 0%
1 1%
0 0%
UND>DR
1 0%
1 4%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
1 1%
0 0%
UND>AA
3 1%
0 0%
0 0%
3 2%
0 0%
2 1%
1 1%
UND>JK
8 2%
1 4%
1 2%
2 1%
3 3%
4 2%
4 2%
UND>UND
32 9%
4 17%
3 5%
11 8%
11 10%
15 9%
17 9%
Kitzaber Impact
SUPT SAME
154 45%
8 33%
37 62%
60 42%
48 44%
59 36%
95 52%
LOSE
9 3%
1 4%
1 2%
4 3%
3 3%
4 2%
5 3%
GAIN
14 4%
1 4%
1 2%
6 4%
5 5%
8 5%
6 3%
OPP SAME
169 49%
14 58%
21 35%
72 51%
54 49%
94 57%
75 41%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
BALLOT MEASURES
TOTAL
VOTER
PARTYID
AREA
(N=)
Voted
Certain
Prob
Dem
Rep
Other
PDXMet
Other
TOTAL
(N=)
403 100
192 100
193 100
18 100
175 100
144 100
84 100
171 100
232 100
M-91
For
177 44%
86 45%
87 45%
4 22%
110 63%
30 21%
37 44%
82 48%
95 41%
Against
186 46%
95 49%
81 42%
10 56%
48 27%
103 72%
35 42%
72 42%
114 49%
Undec
30 7%
2 1%
24 12%
4 22%
15 9%
8 6%
7 8%
12 7%
18 8%
Wont Say
10 2%
9 5%
1 1%
0 0%
2 1%
3 2%
5 6%
5 3%
5 2%
M-92
For
169 42%
77 40%
84 44%
8 44%
105 60%
34 24%
30 36%
77 45%
92 40%
Against
195 48%
107 56%
80 41%
8 44%
55 31%
98 68%
42 50%
79 46%
116 50%
Undec
30 7%
1 1%
27 14%
2 11%
13 7%
10 7%
7 8%
12 7%
18 8%
Wont Say
9 2%
7 4%
2 1%
0 0%
2 1%
2 1%
5 6%
3 2%
6 3%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
BALLOT MEASURES
TOTAL
AGEBAN
GENDER
(N=)
18-35
36-50
51-64
65+
Male
Female
TOTAL
(N=)
403 100
36 100
71 100
163 100
122 100
196 100
207 100
M-91
For
177 44%
20 56%
39 55%
69 42%
47 39%
90 46%
87 42%
Against
186 46%
14 39%
24 34%
76 47%
66 54%
90 46%
96 46%
Undec
30 7%
2 6%
7 10%
12 7%
7 6%
9 5%
21 10%
Wont Say
10 2%
0 0%
1 1%
6 4%
2 2%
7 4%
3 1%
M-92
For
169 42%
22 61%
34 48%
71 44%
40 33%
64 33%
105 51%
Against
195 48%
11 31%
32 45%
77 47%
69 57%
115 59%
80 39%
Undec
30 7%
3 8%
4 6%
11 7%
10 8%
12 6%
18 9%
Wont Say
9 2%
0 0%
1 1%
4 2%
3 2%
5 3%
4 2%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
TOTAL
VOTER
PARTYID
AREA
(N=)
Voted
Certain
Prob
Dem
Rep
Other
PDXMet
Other
TOTAL
(N=)
403 100
192 100
193 100
18 100
175 100
144 100
84 100
171 100
232 100
[1] LIKELY TO
VOTE
Voted
192 48%
192 100
0 0%
0 0%
78 45%
73 51%
41 49%
80 47%
112 48%
Certain
193 48%
0 0%
193 100
0 0%
93 53%
64 44%
36 43%
86 50%
107 46%
Probably
18 4%
0 0%
0 0%
18 100
4 2%
7 5%
7 8%
5 3%
13 6%
AGE
18-35
36 9%
15 8%
19 10%
2 11%
11 6%
8 6%
17 20%
8 5%
28 12%
36-50
71 18%
35 18%
33 17%
3 17%
31 18%
23 16%
17 20%
33 19%
38 16%
51-64
163 40%
75 39%
80 41%
8 44%
77 44%
57 40%
29 35%
76 44%
87 38%
65+
122 30%
62 32%
56 29%
4 22%
54 31%
53 37%
15 18%
49 29%
73 31%
DKNA
11 3%
5 3%
5 3%
1 6%
2 1%
3 2%
6 7%
5 3%
6 3%
PARTY
Dem
175 43%
78 41%
93 48%
4 22%
175 100
0 0%
0 0%
88 51%
87 38%
Rep
144 36%
73 38%
64 33%
7 39%
0 0%
144 100
0 0%
51 30%
93 40%
NAV
57 14%
27 14%
26 13%
4 22%
0 0%
0 0%
57 68%
23 13%
34 15%
Other
13 3%
5 3%
6 3%
2 11%
0 0%
0 0%
13 15%
3 2%
10 4%
NA
14 3%
9 5%
4 2%
1 6%
0 0%
0 0%
14 17%
6 4%
8 3%
GENDER
Male
196 49%
95 49%
91 47%
10 56%
64 37%
80 56%
52 62%
84 49%
112 48%
Female
207 51%
97 51%
102 53%
8 44%
111 63%
64 44%
32 38%
87 51%
120 52%
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KGW/OREGONIAN: 2014 ELECTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
TOTAL
AGEBAN
GENDER
(N=)
18-35
36-50
51-64
65+
Male
Female
TOTAL
(N=)
403 100
36 100
71 100
163 100
122 100
196 100
207 100
[1] LIKELY TO
VOTE
Voted
192 48%
15 42%
35 49%
75 46%
62 51%
95 48%
97 47%
Certain
193 48%
19 53%
33 46%
80 49%
56 46%
91 46%
102 49%
Probably
18 4%
2 6%
3 4%
8 5%
4 3%
10 5%
8 4%
AGE
18-35
36 9%
36 100
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
21 11%
15 7%
36-50
71 18%
0 0%
71 100
0 0%
0 0%
36 18%
35 17%
51-64
163 40%
0 0%
0 0%
163 100
0 0%
77 39%
86 42%
65+
122 30%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
122 100
56 29%
66 32%
DKNA
11 3%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
0 0%
6 3%
5 2%
PARTY
Dem
175 43%
11 31%
31 44%
77 47%
54 44%
64 33%
111 54%
Rep
144 36%
8 22%
23 32%
57 35%
53 43%
80 41%
64 31%
NAV
57 14%
9 25%
13 18%
21 13%
13 11%
37 19%
20 10%
Other
13 3%
6 17%
4 6%
3 2%
0 0%
7 4%
6 3%
NA
14 3%
2 6%
0 0%
5 3%
2 2%
8 4%
6 3%
GENDER
Male
196 100
21 100
36 100
77 100
56 100
196 100
0 0%
Female
207 100
15 100
35 100
86 100
66 100
0 0%
207 100
ELWAY RESEARCH, INC. 28 OCT 2014
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