STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTATION WORKSHOP FOR THE NATIONAL SURVEY OF NON-ODS (OZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES) ALTERNATIVES

January 30, 2019

Subang, MALAYSIA

Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances

that Deplete the Ozone Layer

Viraj VithoontienMontreal Protocol CoordinatorThe World Bank Group

• Significance of HFC Phase-Down;

• Key Elements of the Kigali Amendment;

• Status of Ratification of the Kigali Amendment;

• HFCs Controlled by the Kigali Amendment;

• Global Production Capacity and Demand of HFCs;

• Malaysian Context; and

• Expected Outcome.

Outline

Status of Ratification

Vienna Convention

Montreal Protocol

London Amendment

Copenhagen Amendment

Montreal Amendment

Beijing Amendment

Kigali Amendment

Number of Countries

197 197 197 197 197 197 68

Countries ratifying the Kigali Amendment: Albania, Andorra, Australia, Austria, Barbados, Belgium, Benin, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cote D’Ivoire, Canada, Chile, Comoros, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czech Republic, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Denmark, Ecuador, Estonia, European Union, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Greece, Grenada, Guinea Bissau, Hungary, Ireland, Japan, Kiribati, Lao, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malawi, Maldives, Mali, Marshall Islands, Mexico, Micronesia, Netherlands, Niger, Nigeria, Niue, Norway, Palau, Panama, Paraguay, Poland, Portugal, Rwanda, Samoa, Senegal, Slovakia, Slovania, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago, Tuvalu, Uganda, United Kingdom, Uruguay, and Vanuatu.

Global HFC Demand and Supply

Group I HFCs Controlled Under the Kigali Amendment

Country Number of producers

Production capacity

Production (MT)

USA 20,000 Not available

EU 10,000 Not available

Japan 2,000 Not available

China* 28,000 20,000

Total 60,000

2013 Data

HFC-143a demand and production

R-404A in new equipment will be phased out in EU over the next few years dueto the F-Gas regulation.

HFC-143a is a non-flammable gas with GWP of 4,470.

HFC-143a is a component in a number ofrefrigerant blends.

Main use of HFC-143a is for R-404A.

Malaysia HCFC Consumption (MT)

-

2,000.00

4,000.00

6,000.00

8,000.00

10,000.00

12,000.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

HCFC-141b HCFC-22 HCFC-123 Total

Malaysia: HFC Baseline

65% of HCFC

Baseline

Average of HFC

Consumption

(2020 – 2022)

8.2 mtCO2

?

• Bottom up approach

• Estimate number of production, domestic sales, exports and national inventory of air-conditioners, domestic refrigerator, mobile AC

• Assumption of export production percentage

• Estimate national inventory for determining servicing needs

Concept: HFC Projection

0

5

10

15

20

25

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Mill

ion

s

Production

AC MAC Domestic Refrigerator

• Baseline technology:• AC – HCFC-22 and HFC-410A

• MAC – HFC-134a

• Domestic refrigerator – HFC-134a

• Assumption of charge size and servicing rate

• Business as usual – based on HPMP• AC – HCFC-22 to HFC-32 starting in 2016

• Foam (spray and SME) – HCFC-141b to HFC-245fa

• No conversion for domestic refrigerator, commercial refrigeration or Mobile AC

Projection of HFC Consumption

Projected HFC Consumption: BAU scenario

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

ton

CO

2 e

q.

Mill

ion

s

Projected HFC-tCO2 Kigali Amendment Tier I Kigali Amendment Tier II Actual HFC-tCO2

2024 2029 2035 2040 2045

HFC (MT) 29,404 31,901 36,720 41,048 45,708

BAU GWP mtCO2

36.387 32.743 36.962 40.884 45.195

Kigali Schedule mtCO2

57.994 52.194 40.596 28.996 11.599

Avg. GWP (Kigali) GWP/kg

1,972 1,636 1,106 706 254

BAU Phase-Down Scenario

Thank You & Good Luck!!!