Pockets of Rural Poverty:Seeing Beyond the

Census DataJosh King, Land of Sky Regional

CouncilKaryl Fuller, Isothermal Planning &

Development Commission

IntroductionO Isothermal Planning & Development

Commission (IPDC)O Council of Government representing four counties

in North CarolinaO They are Cleveland, McDowell, Polk and

Rutherford. All but Cleveland are within ARCO IPDC provides a variety of services to their

counties including:O Workforce DevelopmentO Area Agency on AgingO Grant ServicesO Planning Services including staffing Isothermal RPO

Introduction, Cont.O Disproportionate development patterns

leaving extreme income disparityO Fast and furious second home growth in

the 2000’sO Declining manufacturing employment

O Better ways to display and track locally available knowledge for future planners

O Environmental Justice Compliance tool

Environmental Justice Guides

O IncomeO Areas where the Median Household

Income Less than 50% of County’s HUD Average

O MinorityO Areas where %Minority is 10 points

higher than County Average or Greater than 50%

Map

ProblemO Data Available

O Largely CensusO Economic Data is No Longer Collected during the

Regular CensusO Rather, American Community Survey

O Advantages O ”New “ Data Available Every Year

O DisadvantagesO Depending on Geography, Only Data Available is 5-

Year AveragesO Sample Size is not 1 in 6 household like the long

form. Each year, ACS attempts to sample 1 in 35-40 households. Even over 5 years, sample 1-12.5 households

ProblemO Size of Geography has

expandedO In 2000—Block Groups

represented 600 peopleO Since 2010— Block

Groups represented 1,500 people. Census Tracts represented average of 4,000.

O Because of ACS sampling, the data is not reliable at BG level

O Census Tracts provide a more reliable sample

Problem, Cont.O Census Tracts are

largerO The smallest tract in

4-county region is ~1000 acres in McDowell County. The largest is ~100,000 acres in Rutherford County

O Variation is hidden with the larger area and population size. Fewer Census Tract meet the threshold

Kingstown ExampleO Town Facts

O 89.1% BlackO 2010 Median

Household Income: $31,111

O Total Population: 681O Census Tract Facts

O 16.9% BlackO 2010 MHHI: $45,250O Total Population:

6,855

Available DataO IPDC provides Grant Services to all four

counties including Housing, Urgent Repair, Infrastructure and Economic Development. We also provide Weatherization Services to all 4 counties.

O Most of the Grants require Income Verification, usually low to moderate income

O Weatherization has income limits, as well.

Limitations/IssuesO Grant recipients’ addresses are posted. O However, Weatherization is not.O Brought in Grant data from 2005-

O Grant recipients usually have liens on their house for an extended period.

O Small pool of applicants, but have parcel IDsO Weatherization recipients

O Currently, only 1 Year of data usedO Used Addresses and Geo-coded them Using Google

MapsO Solution-To use Spatial Analysis tools to both

obscure the individual addresses and highlight the clusters

ProcessO Grant Recipients

O All data was converted to point dataO Compiled/Attributed with Source

O Weatherization DataO Addresses OnlyO Geo-coded Using Google data

O Any data with Accuracy rating less than 8

O Screened, UpdatedO Re-Geocoded

Process, Cont.O Weatherization & Grant Services

were combinedO Using Spatial Analyst, various cell

sizes and search radius were explored.O Cell size of 2500 ft and Search radius

of 2 miles seemed sufficient

Results

Final Map

Comparison

Results Map

Overlay MapResults Map

Final ThoughtsO Related Products—Highlights for

Marketing/AdvertisingO Race—Use 2010 Block Group dataO Bring in More Weatherization dataO Technique is scalable to varying

degreesO Continuous search for more income

qualified dataO Aging data can also be used to test

against Census Age data