kinh tế việt nam năm 2010: cơ

8/14/2019 Kinh t Vit Nam nm 2010: C

1/124

Kinh t Vit Nam nm 2010:C hi v Thch thc

L ng Doanh

[email protected]


2/124

B cc

Bi cnh kinh t th gii

Kinh t Vit Nam nm 2009

D bo kinh t Vit Nam 2010

C hi v thch thc


3/124

Th gii i mt vi khng hong Loi ng-i ang phi i mt vi bn cuc khng

hong:

Khng hong ti chnh ton cu, dn n suythoi kinh t nhiu n-c, gy ra tht nghip,khng hong x hi. y l cuc khng hong ti tnht t 70 nm nay.

Khng hong l-ng thc: ko di t nht 15 nm

na. Khng hong nng l-ng: cung du th khng p

ng nhu cu tng nhanh. Khng hong mi tr-ng: tri t nng ln, n-c

bin dng cao, nhim mi tr-ng sng. Khnghong n-c. Tc ng ton din: khng gian sng,t canh tc, thay i kh hu dn n subnh, bnh tt v.v. Trong vng 50 nm ti, thit hido thay i kh hu c th dn n thit hi t 5% n 25% GDP ton cu. Chm dt nn vnminh nhn loi?


4/124

L-ng kh thI co2 ca mt s n-c


5/124

D bo kh thI ccbon v nguy c khnghong kh hu

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5

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b

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ree

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e

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S a f e h

D a n g e

c l i m a t e

T u r n i n


6/124

D bo kh thI cc n-c v khu vc

0

2

4

6

8

1 0

1 2

1 4

1 6

1 8

1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0

G

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e

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h

ou

s

e

g

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s

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s

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C h i n aI n d i a

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R e s tO E CE u r a s

U S A

O E CE u r o p

W o r l dL U C F

T u r nz o n


7/124


8/124

Trao i ngoi t v th-ng mi hng ho t1973 n 2001

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1200014000

1973 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Foreign exchange trading

World Trade


9/124

Chng khon ha


10/124

Lng n tn dng (%GDP)


11/124

nh hng nng EM (Kinh t mini)

.


12/124


13/124

Th nh ngha ton cu ho

C nhiu nh ngha v ton cu ho. C th coi

ton cu ho l qu trnh t-ng tc qua li gia cnhn con ng-i, doanh nghip, chnh ph ca ccn-c khc nhau, -c thc y bi th-ng mi, ut-. Qu trnh -c tr gip bi tin b khoa hc

cng ngh, c bit l cng ngh thng tin.Ton cu ho l qu trnh lin kt (integrated) gia

cc nn kinh t, x hi, vn ho thng qua thngtin, trao i. Ton cu ho kinh t lin quan nth-ng mi, u t- n-c ngoi, l-u chuyn t- bn,lao ng v trao i cng ngh.


14/124

Cc lnh vc lin quan n ton cu ho

Kinh t hc: th-ng mi, u t-, tin t, ngn hng,doanhnghip v.v.

Khoa hc chnh tr:chnh ph, chin tranhho binh, thch chnh tr, t chc quc t, t chc phi chnh ph v.v.

X hi hc: Cng ng, giai cp, x hi, xungt Tm l hc:Cnhn (ch th v i t-ng) trong s t-ng

tc gia cc hot ng ton cu.

Nhn chng hc:giao thoa gia cc nn vn ho, tn gio

a l hc: v tr, khong cch ca cc hin t-ng ton cu


15/124

Ch s ton cu ho ca KOFTrung tm nghin cu th tr-ng (KOF) ca ETH, Thu S,

cng b ch s ton cu ho, bao gm ba lnh vc kinh t,

x hi, chnh tr. Ch tiu kinh t -c tnh ton trn c scc tiu ch v th-ng mi/GDP, FDI/GDP, tng l-ng FDI/GDP,u t- gin tip/GDP, t l tr l-ng cho ng-i n-c ngoi lmvic ti n-c ; cc ro cn nhp khu -c che du, thusut, cc loi thu v xut nhp khu, hn ch ti khon vn,

v x hi: tng dung l-ng cc cuc gi in thoi quc t,chuyn giao ti sn, tin t vo v ra, khch du lch, t l c-dn n-c ngoi, th- tn quc t, s ng-i s dng Internet,truyn hinh, xut, nhp bo n-c ngoi, s nh hngMcDonald, Ikea, xut nhp sch;chnt tr: tng s i squn, tng s cc t chc quc t, s nhn vin ng gpcho s mng HBA LHQ, cng -c quc t.


16/124

ch s ton cu ho ca vit nam 2009

Vit Nam xp th 127/208 vi ch ston cu ho l 50.01, ch s ton cuho v kinh t xp th 96 vi 55,67, chs ton cu ho v x hi xp th 121 vi42.11 im, ch s ton cu ho chnhtr xp th 120 vi 53,89 im.


17/124

Kinh t th gii hi phc kh khn Kinh t th gii hi phc sm hn d bo nh cc gi kch

thch kinh t khng l ca cc chnh ph (10.000 t USD), song

qu trnh hi phc chm chp v kh khn. Khng hong tichnh Dubai, khng hong ngn sch ca Hy Lp l nhngcnh bo v nhng him ha cn cha pht hin. Kinh t ncAnh vn tng trng m, kinh t M, c sau khi tng trngkh trong qu hai tng chm li trong Qu III 2009.

Thm ht ngn sch ln t cc gi kch thch kinh t s cntip tc tc ng trong 10 nm ti. Khng loi tr nguy c xyra khng hong mi M v mt s nn kinh t khc.

S ngi tht nghip cn cao. Cc ngn hng thng mi btu cp tn dng nhng cn thn trng.

ng USD mt gi, gi du th, gi vng cn tip tc binng. Chnh gi t gi ca Trung Quc to li th cnh tranh vgi cho hng xut khu Trung Quc.

Trung Quc vt c v xut khu, ng u th gii. Cmt s d bo v kh khn kinh t ca Trung Quc.


18/124

C h ki h t t


19/124

Cc ch s kinh t toncu

2007 2008 2009F 2010F

GDP

Th gii 3.7 1.7 -2.9 2.0

Nc thu nhp cao 2.6 0.4 -4.2 1.3

Nc ang pht trin 8.1 5.9 1.2 4.4

Kim ngch xut khu

Th gii 7.6 3.4 -2.1 6.0

Nc thu nhp cao 6.4 2.9 -3.7 5.1

Nc ang pht trin 10.9 7.2 2.1 8.1

Gi thng miCh s gi hng cng nghip (MUV) 5.5 6.0 -4.9 1.5

Du th (US$/thng, trung bnh) 71.1 97.0 61.1 73.3

Cc mt hng phi du 17.1 21.0 -24.9 -2.8

Li sut danh ngha


20/124

Quarterly Real GDP Growth (%) turned negative in 6 o

Economies by 2008 Q4

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007_

I

2007_

II

2007_

III

2007_

IV

2008_

I

2008_

II

2008_

III

2008_

IV

2009_

I

2009_

II

CHINA

HONG KON

INDIA

INDONESI

KOREA, RE

MALAYSIA

PHILIPPINE

SINGAPOR

TAIWAN

THAILAND


21/124

Exports Collapsed in Asia Since Sep 2008, but are now recovering slowly

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007_

Jan

2007_

Mar

2007_

May

2007_

Jul

2007_

Sep

2007_

Nov

2008_

Jan

2008_

Mar

2008_

May

2008_

Jul

2008_

Sep

2008_

Nov

2009_

Jan

2009_

Mar

2009_

May

2009_

Jul

Jan

2007=10

CHINA

HONG

KONGINDIA

INDONESIA

KOREA, REP

MALAYSIA

PAKISTAN

PHILIPPINE

SSINGAPORE


22/124

Exchange rates in Asia as a whole have depreciated quitesignificantly compared to the peak of July-August 2007

Index of nominal exchange rates

(to US$)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2007_

Jan

2007_

Mar

2007_

May

2007_

Jul

2007_

Sep

2007_

Nov

2008_

Jan

2008_

Mar

2008_

May

2008_

Jul

2008_

Sep

2008_

Nov

2009_

Jan

2009_

Mar

2009_

May

2009_

Jul

2009_

Sep

CAMBODIA

CHINA

INDIA

INDONESIA

KOREA, REP

MALAYSIA

PAKISTAN

PHILIPPINES


23/124

D bo kch bn hi phc ca IMF (8.2009)

IMF d bo kch bn hi phc hnh ch V

Forecasted Real GDP Growth Rates (%)

IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2009, online database

1. Kinh t M c hiphc theo ch V?

2.Tng trng da voxut khu s kh

khn

3. Can thip ngn schqu ln, vai trChnh ph tngln, thu tng

ln. u t tnhn khng ddng nh trcy.


24/124

Tc ng t cuc khng hong ti chnh: Vit Nam

S thc t (2002-08) v IMF d bo (2009-14) v tng trng GDP thc

Tc ng ln tng trng Vit Nam v cc nc lng ging

IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2009, online database


25/124

Tng trng GDP ca ng Bc


26/124

Vn : Mt cn bng ti khon vng lai ton cu

Trung Quc

Cc nc cn li

M

Cc nc angpht trin v

mi ni


27/124

Vn : Mt cn bng Trung Quc - M

Hnh 1: Cn cn ti khon vng lai ca mt s nc t 2003 2008(tnh theo t USD v theo phn trm thm ht ngn sch ca M

Nht BnTrungQuc

M Arp Xut

Ngun: c s d liu trc tuyn World Economic Outlook, Qu Tin t quc t


28/124

Th trng Chng khon hi phc


29/124

Sn lng cng nghip th gii phc hi

D o n n g


30/124

D o n n g (31.12.2008=100%)

D b i


31/124

D bo gi Gi du la din bin ph thuc vo cung-cu, tc l

vo s hi phuc ca kinh t th gii. C hai d bo:

vi s hi phc chm v khng n nh, gi du thc th ch khong ~ 77-80 USD/ thng. Gn y, dokh hu lnh gi, gi du th vt ln trn 80USD/thng. Nu kinh t th gii tng trng mnh,

cung-cu mt cn i, c d bo gi du c th s vtln 180 USD/thng.

ng USD s cha n nh, M c th iu chnh li

sut, lm cho ng la c th ln gi v gi vng stip tc bin ng.

Xut khu go s c th trng, gi ph thuc vo nhucu ca Philippin v phn ng ca Thi Lan. C th

tng t 5-10% so vi 2009.


32/124


33/124

Th gii ang ti cu trc nn kinh t M&A (sp nhp v mua li) doanh nghip ang din

ra cc nn kinh t. Cc cng ty Trung Quc angmua li hng t Volvo, cc ngn hng nh, cc ngnhng cm c phi sp nhp vo cc ngn hng ln.

Ngi dn ang thay i thi quen tiu dng nh

ngi M phi thay i ch , khng th chp nhn qu xa ch lm vic v i li qu xa hng ngy tr nntn km.

Mt chu k (hay ln sng) Kondratiev mi ang xut

hin vi nhng cng ngh mi nh cng ngh mitrng, nng lng ti to, cng ngh nano xanh, hahc xanh v.v. nhm nng cao hiu qu vic s dngti nguyn v bo m tng trng bn vng diiu kin mi.


34/124

Cc knh tc ng n kinh t Vit Nam Vit Nam hi nhp v thng mi nhng cha t do

ha th trng ti chnh nn tc ng trc tip nngn hng v cng ty ti chnh Vit Nam l rt t.

Tc ng qua xut-nhp khu (gi v khi lng), ut nc ngoi, bin ng t gi, u t ti chnh, du

lch, kiu hi l mnh m. Qua , tc ng n vic lm, thu nhp v an sinh x

hi.

Kh c th tch bch tc ng ca khng hong khinhng yu km ni ti ca kinh t Vit Nam nh lmpht, nhp siu, mt cn i cn cn thanh ton quct.

Vietnams Economic Growth 1986 2008


35/124

-4

-2

0

24

6

8

1012

14

16

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

%

Vietnam s Economic Growth 1986-2008Pillar: Total GDP, - Industries, - Services, - Agriculture

Tc tng trng GDP (%)

(TCTK 2009)


36/124

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-06

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

l-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-07

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

l-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

-08

CrudeOilPrice(US$abarrel)

Brent Crude Oil Price (US$ per barrel) - Left-hand Axis

Y-o-y Inflation (%) - Right-hand Axis

Y-o-y Credit Growth (%) - Right-hand Axis

Base Rate (%) - Right-hand Axis

Credit growth, base rate, oil prices, and inflation

Source: GSO for inflation, SBV for credit growth and base rate, andGlobal Financial Data for oil prices,

from Nguyen Xuan Thanh, (2009)

G d l R i 2009


37/124

Gradual Recovery in 2009

6.5

3.0

7.0

7.6

6.5

3.6

7.1 7.2

6.2

4.1

6.1

7.2

3.1

0.4

1.5

5.4

3.9

1.3

3.5

5.5

4.6

1.6

4.5

5.9

5.32

3

7.6

11

0 .0

2 .0

4 .0

6 .0

8 .0

10 .0

12 .0

Growthrate(%

)

6 m on th s

2 0 0 8

9 m on th s

2 0 0 8

1 2 m o n th s

2 0 0 8

3 m on th s

2 0 0 9

6 m on th s

2 0 0 9

9 m o n th s

2 0 0 9

1 2m o n th s

Whole country

Agri.-Forestry-FishiIndus.-ConstructionServices


38/124

Thay i GDP theo qu 2008- 2009 2008 2009

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Tng s GDP 7.5 5.7 6.0 5.8 3.1 4.5 5.8

Nng, lm v ng nghip 3.0 3.7 5.9 4.7 1.3 1.4 2.0

Cng nghip v xy dng 8.0 5.3 5.5 4.8 1.7 5.0 6.2

Cng nghip 8.8 6.8 7.8 6.7 0.9 3.8 4.9

Trong : CN ch bin 12.0 11.0 9.9 10.4 -0.8 2.8 3.5

Xy dng 3.3 -0.5 -1.9 -0.2 6.9 9.8 11.0

Dch v 8.3 7.3 6.5 7.4 5.1 5.7 6.8

Thng nghip 7.6 7.1 5.3 6.1 6.5 6.5 7.2

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k


39/124

Investment

21.1

37.726.2

165.0

22.2

146.9

9.0

-32.0

18.1

-18.4

14.4

-11.2

15.3

-5.8

-40.0

-20.0

0 .0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

Growthrate(%)

6 months

2008

12

months

2008

6 months

2009

12months

Perio

Total Investmen

FDI


40/124

Export-Import

31.8

60.3

39.0

48.3

29.5 28.3

2.4

-45.0

-10.1

-34.1

-14.3

-25.2

-9.7-14.7

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

Growthrate(%

)

6 months2008

9 months2008

12 months2008

3 months2009

6 months2009

9 months2009

12months

ExportImport


41/124


42/124

Poverty Reduction in Ethnic Groups


43/124

Gi tr xut khu

Gi tr (triuUS$, 2008)

Tng trng (%)

2008 10M-08 10M-09

Tng gi tr xut khu 62,685 29.1 36.7 -13.8

Du th 10,357 22.0 43.2 -43.0

Ngoi du th 52,328 30.6 35.4 -7.6

Go 2,894 94.3 83.4 -7.8

Cc mt hng nng sn khc 5,505 17.2 20.0 -19.9Thy hi sn 4,510 19.8 23.7 -8.7

Than 1,388 38.8 57.4 -19.4

Dt may 9,120 17.7 20.3 -1.5

Giy dp 4,768 19.4 16.9 -16.1

in t v My tnh 2,638 22.5 27.3 0.1

Th cng m ngh (bao gm c vng) 1,363 65.1 95.7 154.3

Sn phm t g 2,829 17.7 18.6 -14.0

Sn phm khc 17,312 44.3 52.9 -16.5

gun: Tng cc Thng k. Tng trng tnh trn cng k nm trc.


44/124

Thay i gi tr xut khu theo ngnh hng


45/124

Xut khu cc hng nng sn chnh

Ch d h th t t kh


46/124

Chuyn dch v th trng xut khu

Gi tr nhp khu


47/124

Gi tr nhp khu

Gi tr (triu US$,2008)

Tng trng (%)

2008 10M-08 10M-09

Tng gi tr nhp khu 80,714 28.8 42.6 -21.7

Sn phm xng du 10,966 42.2 71.1 -47.9

My mc, thit b v ph tng 13,994 25.8 33.0 -13.0

in t, my tnh v linh kin 2,355 9.4 28.3 -0.3

Dc phm 3,714 25.5 19.5 26.8

guyn ph liu dt, may, da 6,721 31.5 11.8 -23.2

St thp 1,473 47.3 57.2 -30.7

Phn bn cc loi 2,945 17.5 41.1 -18.1

Cht do 4,458 12.7 29.9 -10.9

Vi 1,776 21.1 13.3 -8.6

Ha cht 1,604 24.8 35.7 -15.2

Sn phm ha cht 864 22.9 32.5 -9.5 t (COMP/CKD/IKD) 775 4.6 106.6 -12.0

T si 744 94.3 11.5 -4.2

Phn bn 467 74.7 41.1 -11.6

Bng 753 25.5 67.0 -15.2

Giy cc loi 2,958 57.2 31.9 -3.9

Cc mt hng khc 24,147 28.2 45.7 -23.3Ngun: Tng cc Thng k. Tng trng tnh trn cng k nmtrc.


48/124

Nhp siu


49/124

Bin ng t gi


50/124


51/124

Ch i ti d


52/124

Ch s gi tiu dng


53/124


54/124

Ch s gi hai thng 1-2 2010


55/124

Tng gi in


56/124

Trong 4 thng xng tng gi 5 ln

Gi xng trong nc cao hn gi xng nhp


57/124

Gi xng trong nc cao hn gi xng nhpkhu t Singapore


58/124


59/124

D n cho vay theo chng trnh h tr li sut


60/124

D n cho vay theo chng trnh h tr li sut

Quy m gi kch thch kinh t


61/124

y g

ghn t VNDGi kch thch kinh t do

Chnh ph xutc tnh chi ph lin

quan ti ngn sch nhnc 2009

Min, gim, gin thu (gim thu ngn sch) 25.4 20.0

Thu thu nhp doanh nghip (CIT) 10.4 9.9

Thu thu nhp c nhn (PIT) 6.5 4.5

Thu gi tr gia tng (VAT) 7.4 4.5

Thu mn bi v l ph 1.1 1.1

Chi tiu b sung (tng chi ngn sch) 117.6 45.0

H tr li sut 17.0

Tm ng ngn sch KH 2010 cho mt s DA cp bch 37.2 26.0

Tri phiu CP chuyn ngun t KH 2008 7.7 5.0

Pht hnh b xung tri phiu CP 20.0 14.0

Chuyn ngun u t t KH 2008 sang KH 2009 22.5

Hon thu hi vn u t XDCB ng trc nm 2009 3.4

Cc khon chi tiu m bo an sinh x hi 9.8

Tng vn vay t NH Pht trin Vit nam (so vi 2008) 7.1

Tng quy m gi kch thch kinh t 143.0 72.1

Tnh theo % GDP 8.5 4.3

Tc ng ca tn dng b li sut


62/124

Tc ng ca tn dng b li sut cp 420.000 t VND cho 20% doanh nghip, trong

doanh nghip va v nh v nng dn c rt t. Vn c

n c ng i tng khng? Lng ngh phc hikhng nh gi kch cu. S dng c ng mc ch khng? Cha c iu tra y ,

NHNN ni l ng mc ch. C hin tng o n, vn

chy vo th trng chng khon v bt ng sn. Gy mo m trn th trng tn dng, dng ng VND u t, nhp khu, tng sc p ln nhu cu ngoi t, to nnsc p nng n cho cn cn thng mi v cn cn thanh

ton quc t. Do mun tng trng cao nn tn dng tng cao, cui nmphi hn ch, va c hin tng git cc, va gy nguy clm pht tim n cho nm 2010.

Mi t i d t d


63/124

Mi tng quan gia d n tn dng vchng khon


64/124

Cn i tin t


65/124

T l n xu trong tn dng ngn hng

Cn cn Thanh ton quc t


66/124

Cn cn Thanh ton quc tT USD

2006 2007 2008 e/ 2009 p/

Cn cn Ti khon Vng lai -0.2 -7.0 -10.7 -7.4

Cn cn thng mi -2.8 -10.4 -12.8 -8.1Cn cn dch v 0.0 -0.9 -0.8 -1.3

Thu nhp t u t -1.4 -2.2 -4.4 -4.2

Chuyn giao (gm c kiu hi) 4.1 6.4 7.3 6.1

Cn cn ti khon vn 3.1 16.8 12.1 10.2

u t trc tip nc ngoi (rng) 2.3 6.6 9.1 7.9

Vay trung hn v di hn 1.0 2.0 1.0 2.6

Cc ngun vn khc (rng) -1.6 2.0 2.7 -0.3

u t danh mc 1.3 6.2 -0.6 0.0

Li v sai st 1.4 0.3 -0.9 -9.4

Cn cn chung 4.3 10.2 0.5 -6.6

Ngun: NHNNVN, IMF v Ngn hng Th gii.


67/124

N lc n nh cc cn i kinh tr v m


68/124

N lc n nh cc cn i kinh tr v m Th tng coi n nh kinh t v m l u tin hng

u trong nm 2010. IMF, ADB, WB cng khuyn conh vy.

Gim nhp siu.

Vay quc t ( Nht Bn, WB, ADB) v pht hnh 1 t

USD tri phiu Chnh ph trn th trng quc t. Vn li sut kh cao khi xp hng n nh v m caVit Nam bi gim xt. (Ba2).

ng ca sn vng. Kim sot mua bn ngoi t.

Kim ch lm pht.

Ngn sch Nh nc


69/124

ghn t VND nu khng ch thch khc 2007 2008 e/ 2009 p/ 2010 f/

Tng thu ngn sch v vin tr 326.3 416.8 394.9 462.6

Tng thu 320.3 409.5 388.9 456.6

Thu thu 267.0 359.1 348.6 403.5

Thu t du th 77.0 88.8 58.8 66.3

Thu ngoi du th 190 270.3 289.8 337.2

Thu ph v vn 53.3 50.4 40.3 53.1

Vin tr khng hon li 6.0 7.3 6.0 6.0

Tng chi ngn sch 336.1 434.2 454.7 497.5

Chi thng xuyn 231.8 298.3 339.5 390.8

Chi u t pht trin 104.3 135.9 115.2 106.

Chi "ngoi ngn sch" v cho vay rng 25.7 49.8 104.5 87.3

Cho vay rng 7.0 22.8 34.3 48.1

Vn ODA -3.0 9.0 13.4 11.9

Cho vay ca NH Pht trin Vit nam 10.0 13.8 20.9 36.2Chi u t ngoi ngn sch 18.7 27.0 70.2 39.2

K hoch pht hnh tri phiu CP 18.7 27 25.2 39.2

Gi kch thch kinh t 45.0

Tng cn i ngn sch chung -35.5 -67.2 -164.3 -122.2

T l % GDP -3.1 -4.5 -9.7 -6.2Ngun: B Ti chnh, IMF v c tnh ca Ngn hng Th gii.


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71/124

N h h h i GDP


72/124

N chnh ph so vi GDP

Ci cch doanh nghip nh nc


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Ci cch doanh nghip nh nc Cc tp on c nhn qu nhiu u i (tn dng,

d n, t ai, quyn kinh doanh v.v.) Hiu qu v qun l c nhiu vn . Dng tin nh

nc u t sang cc lnh vc chng khon, btng sn, du lch, khch sn. Cc doanh nghip nhnc u t rt t vo khoa hc-cng ngh (tuy cncao hn doanh nghip t nhn nh v va).

Qun l, gim st khng r rng v km hiu qu:lng, thng qu cao khng t tp on, gy btbnh trong d lun. Khng cng khai minh bch,khng c trch nhim gii trnh. Th tng Chnh ph c ch th v nng cao hiu qu ca tp on kinht quc doanh.

C phn ha qu chm v c nhiu tiu cc.


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Khu vc t

30


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Th trng bt ng sn


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Th trng bt ng sn Chu k st nng > st rt > trm lng. Gi t th qu cao so vi thu nhp ca ngi

dn, thuc loi cao nht th gii. Yu t u c. Ngnh xy dng tng trng cao nh u t mnh,

kt cu h tng c th ci thin mt s mt.

L hng ln trong Lut t ai thu hi t.. nhmpht trin kinh t, b li dng. Chnh lch qu ln gia n b cho nng dn v gi

t xy dng theo th trng, gy bt bnh v khiu

kin. ng lc sai lm: t nng nghip thu nhp thp, txy dng c thu cho ngn sch. Quan nim gin n: Cng nghip ha l gim t trng nng nghip tng

t trng cng nghip-xy dng, dch v.


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X p hng mi trng kinh doanh ngNam


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Nam

1 3

1223

46 52 54 57 59 6079

89 93 96 97 98 102104122127

144145

164167

Xp hng chung v Mi trng Kinh doanh thun li 2008/09

Cao nht

Thp nht


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Din n Kinh t Th gii xp hng h thng ti chnh


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g p g g

WEF i s ch o khoa hc ca Nouriel Roubini cng b Bo co pht trin Ti chnh 2009, sdng by tiu ch sau y: mi trng v th ch, mitrng kinh doanh,n nh ti chnh, dch v ti chnhngn hng, dch v ti chnh phi ngn hng, th trng

ti chnh v tip cn ti chnh. Vit Nam xp th 45/55 cc nn kinh t c xphng.

Moody xp hng Vit Nam vo loi Ba2, c xu hngxu i so vi trc y.

Xp hng ca Vit Nam v pht trin ti chnh 2009(WEF)


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(WEF)

Brazil 34 40 3.46 +0.18 Thailand 35 29 3.35 0.48

Egypt 36 37 3.33 +0.01 Slovak Republic 37 42 3.30+0.05 India 38 31 3.30 0.34 Poland 39 41 3.270.00 Russian Federation 40 36 3.16 0.24 Hungary41 33 3.08 0.45 Peru 42 46 3.07 +0.01 Mexico 43

43 3.06 0.15 Turkey 44 39 3.03 0.27 Vietnam 4549 3.00 0.03 Colombia 46 44 2.94 0.27Kazakhstan 47 45 2.93 0.20 Indonesia 48 38 2.900.41 Pakistan 49 34 2.85 0.61 Philippines 50 48

2.84 0.19 Argentina 51 47 2.77 0.26 Nigeria 5250 2.72 0.04 Ukraine 53 51 2.71 0.02 Bangladesh54 n/a 2.57 n/a Venezuela 55 52 2.52 0.18

Nng lc cnh tranh Vit Nam 2009


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gTiu ch Xp hng

2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010

Xp hng chung/s nn kinh t 68/131 70/134 75/133

I. Cc yu t c bn 77 79 92

1. nh ch 70 71 63

2. H tng 89 93 94

3. n nh kinh t v m 51 70 112

4. Sc khe v gio dc s cp 88 84 76

II. Cc yu t tng cng hiu qu 71 73 61

5. Gio dc bc cao v o to 93 98 92

6. Hiu qu ca th trng hng ha 72 70 67

7. Hiu qu ca th trng lao ng 45 47 38

8. S snh si ca th trng ti chnh 93 80 82

9. S sn sng cng ngh 86 79 73

10. Quy m ca th trng 32 40 38

III. Cc yu t i mi v snh si 76 71 55

11. S snh si kinh doanh 83 84 70

12. S i mi 64 57 44

ch s CGI (WEF) gia Trung qucvit nam


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g g q

2 9

7 5

4 9

5 4

3 5

3 0

3 4

8 1

7 7

6 4

7 06 8

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 6 -0 7 2 0 0 7 -0 8 2 0 0 8 -0 9 2 0 0 9 -1 0

C h i n e

V i e t n a m

Shipbuilding, heavy industries, and seat


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ports

Steel plant

Shipyard

Port

Steel plantsShipyard

Port

Steel plantShipyard

Port

Steel plant

Shipyard

Port

Vinashin

Nam triu, HiPHng

H Long, QungNinh

Nghi Sn, ThanhHa

Hn La, QungBnh

Dung Qut, QungNgi

Long Sn, ngNai

Vng ng, H Tnh

Cam Ranh & VnPhong, Khnh Ha

Soi Rp, Tin

GiangC MauCn Th

Steel plantShipyard

Port

Shipyard

Port

Ci Ln, QungNinh

Quy Nhn, Bnh nh

Ninh Thun

Th ViCi Mp,B RaVngTu

Chn My, TT Hu

Tin Sa, NngChu Lai, Qung Nam

Ca L, Ngh An

Hip Phc,TP.HCMLong An

Nhng, thc t cc Cm cng nghip ch


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Nhng, thc t cc Cm cng nghip chhnh thnh mt s vng

Automobile &motorcycle parts

Electronics

Automobile &motorcycle parts

Electronics


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87/124


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Tm quan trng ca cc nh t cho cng cuc pht i Vit N


89/124

89

trin ca Vit Nam

2.46

3.04

3.26

3.43

3.50

3.76

4.15

4.20

4.22

4.26

4.

4.

Q310. Tm kim thm cc m ti nguyn nh du kh, qung nhm.

Q307. u t vo mt s doanh nghip quc doanh ch o cho pht trin kinht

Q309. Pht trin th trng chng khon

Q308. Pht trin h thng ngn hng

Q305. Khch l ch dn tc

Q311. Tng cng hi nhp vo nn kinh t quc t

Q301. H tng c s v qui hoch th

Q306. Nng tm nhn v nng lc ca b my QLNN

Q303. Y t-sc khe-thc phm

Q304. H thng php l-chnh sch

Q302. Gio dc

Q312. Chng tham nhng


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90


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93/124


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http://www.crwflags.com/fotw/images/vn).gif


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Population: 85.9 million (2009)GDP: US$ billion 94 (2009)

GDP Growth rate: 5.2%/year

GDP/capita: US$ 1030(2009)GDP/capita(PPP): ~US$ 2800

Export: US$ billion 56,6 (-9,7%)(2009)Import: US$ billion 68.8 (- 14,7%) (2009)

CPI: ~ 6,52,%( 2009)

Kinh t Vit Nam nm 2010
http://www.crwflags.com/fotw/images/vn).gif


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Cc ch tiu k hoch: GDP tng 6,5%, GDP d kin t 1931 nghn t

VNDD, tng ng 106 t USD, GDP/ngi 1200USD/ngi (NN:2,6%, CN+XD 7%, DV:&,5%).

Xut khu:+6%; Bi chi ngn sch 6,2% GDP; Tng u t x hi:41% GDP; Lm pht: < 7% Gim t l h ngho


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-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

%

Tc tng trng GDP (%)

(TCTK 2009)

Vit Nam: Vn cn giai on ban u


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Vit Nam: Vn cn giai on ban u

Ln c giai on 2 ca qu trnh phttrin


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Nn kinh t daNn kinh t davo ti nguynvo ti nguyn

Nn kinh t daNn kinh t davo ti nguynvo ti nguyn

Nn kinh t daNn kinh t davo nng sut,vo nng sut,thm dng vnthm dng vn

Nn kinh t daNn kinh t davo nng sut,vo nng sut,thm dng vnthm dng vn

Nn kinh t daNn kinh t davo sng to,vo sng to,

pht minhpht minh

Nn kinh t daNn kinh t davo sng to,vo sng to,

pht minhpht minh

Source: Porter, Michael E., The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Macmillan Press, 1990

u vo chi ph thp Nng sut,cht lng Unique Value

n nh Vm, lut l, chnhtr

C s h tng c bn chiu qu;

Gim thiu chi ph iutit i vi hot ng kinhdoanh

Nng cao cnh tranh trnth trng ni a;

M ca th trng

C cu h tng hin i

Cc n by v lut lkhuyn khch gia tawg nngsut;

Pht trin cc khu, cmcng nghip lin hon.

Cc k nng hin i

H thng th ch, hc vinkhoa hc v cng ngh;

n by v lut l khuynkhch v thc y sng to;

Pht trin v nng cao chtlng cc cm, khu cngnghip lin hon

ng gp ca cc yu t c bn ca NLCT i vi


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g g p ytng trng qua cc giai on pht trin (%)

T trng/yut Giai on1 Giai on2 Giai on3

Cc yu t c bn 60 40 20

Cc yu t nng caonng sut 35 50 50

Cc yu t sng tov mc pht trinca doanh nghip

5 10 30

Gi tr gia tng theo cng on


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Gi trgia t ng/cng nhn

g n a cng p r p n pcu r n ng - n cung c p

So snh mt s ch tiu kinh t v m


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Trung Quc Malaysia Thi Lan Vit Nam

Tc tang tr-ng GDP 2007(%)

11,9 6,3 4,9 8,5

2008 9,1 5,1 3,4 6,2

Quy m gi kch thch (tUSD)

586 1,9 8,7 8

Quy mgikchthch (%GDP) 16,7 1,0 3,5 8

Cn i ngn sch (%GDP) +0,2 -5,4 -1,4 -5

Chi tiu ngn sch (%GDP) 20,4 26,1 19,3 27,6

Cn i ti khoan vng lai

(%GDP)

10,5 10,6 -1,0 -13,7

D tr- ngoi hi (t USD) 2132 100 103 23

Lm pht (CPI, %) 6,2 5,7 7,2 21

Li sut cho vay (%) 6,7 6,0 7,2 16,1

Nhp khu (% GDP) 41 110 56 117


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C cu GDP theo thnh phn kinh t


104/124

C cu GDP theo thnh phn kinh t

N m :

Vn u t ton x hi thc hin 2009


105/124

Nghn t VND C cu(%) So vi 2008(%)

Tng s 704,2 100,0 115,3

Khu vc nhnc

245,0 34,8 140,5

Khu vc ngoinh nc 278,0 39,5 113,9

Khu vc u tnc ngoi

181,2 25,7 94,2

Khu vc t nhn chnh quy trong nc cn


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qu nh

2.083.98 4.77

5.64 6.356.937.3

8.2 8.5 8.9 9.4 10.19.8

15.217.1

19.221.6

24.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

ty tr. L

Ty tr.GDP

T tr. GTCN

Nm 2010: tng tr ng kinh t khkhn t h kh h h


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ng gp ca xutnhp khu hn ch;Tn kho kh ln: 5% GDP. u t khu vc doanh nghip v t nhn

gim.Tiu dng ni a v quc t phc hi

chm.Tn dng tht cht.

Cnh tranh hng nhp khu tng mnhdo cc hip nh AFTA v CAFTA h thuquan.

Nim tin ca cc nh u t nc ngoi

Th trng tn dng


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Th trng tn dng

Gim mnh do tht cht tn dng. Ngun vn hn hp. Cnh tranh huy ng vn ln (TP

Chnh ph; bt ng sn; chngkhon; vng; ngoi t)

Li sut huy ng km hp dn.

Thanh khon ngoi t, ni t yu.

Th trng bt ng sn


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Th trng bt ng sn

TP.H Ch Minh : cung > cu, btng sn = 51% c nc.

H Ni: Cung < cu, bt ng sn =

15% c nc. C du hiu hi phc nh. u t nc ngoi vo bt ng sn

chm li. Ngun vn cho bt ng sn b tht

cht

Th trng bt ng sn


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Th trng bt ng sn

Ngun vn cho bt ng sn b thtcht.

Tn dng, ti chnh bt ng sn rt

yu. C th hi phc vo cui nm 2010.

Th trng chng khon


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Th trng chng khon

Tnh n nh thp do Ph thuc mnh vo chnh sch tin t.

Thiu im ta ca th trng TP.

Thiu minh bch thng tin.Thiu h tng k thut chun. B thao tng, lm gi kh ph bin.

C th gim im vo na cui qu Inhng khng nhiu v phc hi n nhhn t qu II/2010

Gi vng


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Gi vng

Th trng vng c du hiu suy gimnh vi 3 d on:

1. S gim su t thi im hin ti.

2. Tng thm trong mt thi gian v gimsu sau .

3. Bt u gim trong khong gi du t85 115 USD v c th tng tr li nu

gi du trn 120 USD.

Thanh khon ngoi t v t


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gi hi oi 2009

Nguyn nhn: H tr li sut tn dng VND nhng khng h

tr ngoi t tng ng.

Li sut USD th bt hp l so vi VND. Ngoi t b y khi lu thng, tr thnh vtct tr, ch gi.

Chnh lch t gi chnh thc v VND tng ln. Cn cn thanh ton quc t thm ht do sai

st, thc cht l do dn ct gi ngoi t.

Thanh khon ngoi t v


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2010 Cng thng c th gim nhng vn cn.T gi c iu chnh mt bc, h tr lisut VND ngn hn c ct. Li sut c bn c tng thm 1%.Tuy nhin cng thng c th vn cn do:

+ Vn cn h tr li sut vn u t trung, dihn.+ Vn cn h tr li sut ngnh nng nghip.

+ Li sut ca FED c th tng. Chnh lch t gi chnh thc v t do vn khcao.

Lm pht c th quay tr liC ti 2009 th l h i


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Cung ng tin nm 2009 c th lm cho gitng trong Qu I. 2010, vo khong Tt.

Gi c th trng th gii cha tng, hoc tngkhng mnh lm, song nh hng n thtrng ni a (gi xng du, thc n gia sc).

Hng tn kho cn kh ln. Nhng c yu t gy tng gi:

Gi lng thc c th tng. Gi in, than, gi nc

T gi hi oi c th tng lm tng gihng nhp khu. D bo lm pht khong 812%

u t nc ngoi


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u t nc ngoi u t trc tip tng tr li nhng chm, tp trung

vo cc d n ln ca tp on ln. u t nc ngoi vo tri phiu chnh ph ang m

ln. Indonesia, Malaysia pht hnh thnh cng

TPCP.Th trng TP chu ang phc hi tt.

u t nc ngoi vo c phiu tng dn nhng khthn trng

Cc lnh vc nc ngoi u tinu t


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u Ngnh ngn hng. Do tc ng ca

khng hong, tc u t vo Vit Nam chm hn so vi d kin trc y.y l c hi cc NHTM Vit Nam

tranh th thi gian cng c v tr v phttrin. Nng lng, nhin liu.

Vin thng, khong sn. Bo him, ti bo him. Bt ng sn, hin ang chim 505 d n

Ln sng ti cu trc kinh t


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Ln sng mi v c phn ho.

Si ng tr li th trng mua li, stnhp (vn)

Cng ngh thn thin vi mi trng,nng lng ti sinh, cng ngh nano.

Cnh tranh trn nn tng mu dch t dov bo h an xen.

Chnh sch ti chnh thay i ln


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nh thu thu nhp c nhn.Tr li np thu thu nhp doanh nghipTng thu VAT ( 1 s mt hng).

Thu thu nhp t chng khon.Thu nh , bt ng sn.Thu hi quan .

Thu mi trng c th tng.Thu ti nguyn?Tng thu, ph vo t hn ch kt

Chnh sch tin t Kim sot tn dng thn trng hn do u


120/124

Kim sot tn dng thn trng hn do utin n nh kinh t v m.

Bin ng li sut theo hng tng. Lisut c bn c th tng nu lm phttng ln.

Thanh khon ngn hng c th c cithin.

Thanh khon nn kinh t rt kh khn vs ci thin chm hn.

Chi ph thu xp cn cao.

Ri ro o c ln trong h thng ngn

Mt s vn ca Vit Nam nm 2010 Xut khu sang Nht Bn c th thun tin hn


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Xut khu sang Nht Bn c th thun tin hn.

Kt cu h tng km pht trin, thiu in cng thng,

hn ch tng trng kinh t. nhim mi trng ngy cng nghim trng.

Ti nguyn b khai thc km hiu qu (ph rng,

khong sn v.v) Gio dc pht trin v s lng, song cha p ng

yu cu cht lng.

Y t qu ti, ngi dn phi tr chi ph y t qu cao, tl chi tr t tin ti ca ngi dn rt cao.

Cc u i thu chm dt. Cc ngn hng quc ttip tc tham gia vo th trng Vit Nam. Cc cam

kt vTO v AFTA lm cho cnh tranh gy gt hn

Yu cu ti cu trc nn kinh t

Vit Nam ng trc yu cu cp bch ti cu trc


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Vit Nam ng trc yu cu cp bch ti cu trcnn kinh t, nng cao hiu qu s dng vn, ti

nguyn, nng lng, bo v mi trng; Nhim v hng u l bo m n nh kinh t v

m,khng nhp siu, cn cn thanh ton quc t

xu hn, kim ch lm pht, nng cao hiu qu, chtlng nng lc cnh tranh ca nn kinh t v catng doanh nghip.

Pht trin v ci cch gio dc, nng cao cht lng

ngun nhn lc; Ci cch doanh nghip nh nc;

Ci cch hnh chnh, chng tham nhng;

Doanh nghip t nhn cng phi cu trc li

C hi, thch thc i vi doanh nghip phng bin ng t gi ( trong nc v nc i


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phng bin ng t gi ( trong nc v nc itc), lm pht, cao hiu qu, an ton, trit tit

kim nng lng, nguyn liu; Xy dng tip tc tng trng mnh, c c hi thu httn dng;

Xut khu: c th c nhu cu th trng nhng phi

i mt vi ro cn k thut, yu cu xut x ngtrng nh bt, v sinh, an ton thc phm v.v. Giady sang EU b nh thu 10%.

Ch th trng trong nc, ch ng v mu m,

kiu dng, cnh tranh vi hng Trung Quc. Hp tc, lin kt vi nhau nng cao hiu qu; Nng cao tnh chuyn nghip v vai tr ca cc hip

hi.

C hi v thch thc vi ngnh nha Vit Nam

b ht t i i i h


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c bc pht trin nng ng, i mi cng ngh,p ng ngy cng tt hn nhu cu trong nc v

xut khu. Ph thuc qu nhiu vo nguyn liu nhp khu: cc

loi nha, cht ph gia, trang thit b ch tc hin

i.Cha hp tc, lin kt cht ch, chi ph cn cao. Yu cu bo v mi trng ngy cng cao hn.

Cnh tranh gay gt vi cc nc ASEAN (thi Lan,Malaysia, Indonesia)

Nm 2015, thc hin C-AFTA, 90% mt hng caTrung Quc c thu sut bng 0% l thch thc ln

kinh tế việt nam năm 2010: cơ

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