EC-EARTH in action

Klaus WyserGrigory NikulinRossby Centre

EC-EARTH

The EC-EARTH consortiumSignees of the EC-EARTH letter of intent (January 2012)

The EC-EARTH model version 2.3 EC-EARTH is a coupled, state-of-the-art coupled global climate model based on

ECMWF’s seasonal prediction system S3 EC-EARTH is jointly developed by several European institutes and ECMWF

IFS for atmosphereincl. H-Tessel for land surface

T159/N80 / 62 levels(nominal 1.125 deg resolution)

NEMO for oceanincl. LIM2 for sea-ice

ORCA1 configuration / 42 levels(approx. 1 deg resolution)

VegetationJPL-Guess

Atmospheric chemistryTM5

OASIS-3 coupler

Not part of EC-EARTH v2 that is used for CMIP5 simulations

http://ecearth.knmi.nl/

CMIP5: Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase 5 From http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5:

CMIP is a standard experimental protocol for studying the output ofcoupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). It provides a community-based infrastructure in support of climate modeldiagnosis, validation, intercomparison, documentation and data access.

CMIP5 provides access climate model data in a common data format (ESGF portal http://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/esgf-web-fe/)

CMIP5 is done in support of IPCC AR5

First time that Swedem contributes to CMIP experiments

CMIP5: climate predictions

T2m over EuropeStart an ensemble of 10-yr experiments every 5 years

Initialize from re-analysis (or synthesis) ofatmosphere and ocean

Extend a few runs to 30 yrs

CMIP5: climate projections

Start an ensemble from a pre-industrial spin-up run (>500 yrs)

The 20th century control run is forced by the observedchanges in GHG, aerosol concentrations, volcanoes, and land-use changes from 1850-2005

3 RCP scenarios for the 21th century

EC-EARTH

7

Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got thereKnutti et al., GRL, 2013

Normalized distancefrom observations

EC-EARTH v3 has been releasedSMHI has led the development of the next EC-EARTH version

Upgraded components for atmosphere, ocean and coupler New sea-ice model LIM3 Increased resolution:

T255 (80 km) and 91 levels in the atmosphere, ORCA1L46 in the ocean

CMIP5 forcing as in v2 New treatment of snow on ice sheets (avoiding accumulation yet conservative) ”Calving glaciers” in Greenland and Antarctica Lakes are updated from nearest ocean point Revised runoff maps for IFS and land-sea masks for OASIS

Planned developments in the near future: Interactive vegetation Chemical transport model including aerosols River routing

EU-FP7 project EMBRACEWebsite: http://www.embrace-project.eu/

Aim: reduce climate model biases

Target research areas: Global carbon cycle Atmospheric convection and coupled tropical circulation Land Surface - Climate Interactions Coastal and equatorial ocean upwelling

Outcome: climate projections similar to CMIP5 with improved GCMs

OBS

HadGEM

MPI ESM

MIROC GFDL

CNRM

IPSL

EC-EARTH

SMHI is co-leading a WP about model diagnostics and evaluation

EU-FP7 project SPECSWebsite: http://www.specs-fp7.eu/SPECS/Home.html

SPECS aims to identify the main problems in climate prediction and investigate a battery of solutions from a seamless perspective

Better initialisation Impact of larger ensembles Impact of higher resolution

Outcome: seasonal and multi-annual hindcasts and forecasts