klimawandel und energieengpässe der zukunft...klimawandel und energieengpässe der zukunft omi...

Tomi Engel

Klimawandel und

Energieengpässe der Zukunft

Nürnberg - 22.01.2008

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Die Erde ... ein komplexes System

Quelle: IPCC AR3-WP1 Bericht 2007

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Die Erde ... ein komplexes System

... mit vielen Wechselwirkungen und Kreisläufen.Quelle: IPCC AR3-WP1 Bericht 2007

515

Chapter 7 Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry

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Figure 7.3. The global carbon cycle for the 1990s, showing the main annual fl uxes in GtC yr–1: pre-industrial ‘natural’ fl uxes in black and ‘anthropogenic’ fl uxes in red (modi-fi ed from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004a). The net terrestrial loss of –39 GtC is inferred from cumulative fossil fuel emissions minus atmospheric increase minus ocean storage. The loss of –140 GtC from the ‘vegetation, soil and detritus’ compartment represents the cumulative emissions from land use change (Houghton, 2003), and requires a terrestrial biosphere sink of 101 GtC (in Sabine et al., given only as ranges of –140 to –80 GtC and 61 to 141 GtC, respectively; other uncertainties given in their Table 1). Net anthropogenic exchanges with the atmosphere are from Column 5 ‘AR4’ in Table 7.1. Gross fl uxes generally have uncertainties of more than ±20% but fractional amounts have been retained to achieve overall balance when including estimates in fractions of GtC yr–1 for riverine transport, weathering, deep ocean burial, etc. ‘GPP’ is annual gross (terrestrial) primary production. Atmospheric carbon content and all cumulative fl uxes since 1750 are as of end 1994.

2 This defi nition follows the usage of C. Keeling, distinct from that of Oeschger et al. (1980).

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CO2-Emissionen

42%

9% 12%12%

7%

19%

Haushalte Verkehr Verkehr (PKW)Gewerbe Industrie Energiewirtschaft

ca. 900 Mio. Tonnen

Treibhausgase

ca. 1000 Mio. Tonnen

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Klimawandel: Anstieg der Temperatur


477

Chapter 6 Palaeoclimate

Figure 6.13. Radiative forcings and simulated temperatures during the last 1.1 kyr. Global mean radiative forcing (W m–2) used to drive climate model simulations due to (a) volcanic activity, (b) solar irradiance variations and (c) all other forcings (which vary between models, but always include greenhouse gases, and, except for those with dotted lines after 1900, tropospheric sulphate aerosols). (d) Annual mean NH temperature (°C) simulated under the range of forcings shown in (a) to (c), compared with the concentra-tion of overlapping NH temperature reconstructions (shown by grey shading, modifi ed from Figure 6.10c to account for the 1500 to 1899 reference period used here). All forc-ings and temperatures are expressed as anomalies from their 1500 to 1899 means and then smoothed with a Gaussian-weighted fi lter to remove fl uctuations on time scales less than 30 years; smoothed values are obtained up to both ends of each record by extending the records with the mean of the adjacent existing values. The individual series are identifi ed in Table 6.2.

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MULTI-MODEL AVERAGES AND ASSESSED RANGES FOR SURFACE WARMING

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Klimawandel: Abschmelzen der Polkappen

Quelle: Science - Oktober 2005

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Klimawandel: Abschmelzen der Polkappen

... deutlicher Anstieg des MeeresspiegelsQuelle: Science - Oktober 2005 und IPCC 2007

409

Chapter 5 Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level

Frequently Asked Question 5.1Is Sea Level Rising?

Yes, there is strong evidence that global sea level gradually rose in the 20th century and is currently rising at an increased rate, after a period of l ittle change between AD 0 and AD 1900. Sea level is projected to rise at an even greater rate in this century. The two major causes of global sea level rise are thermal expan-sion of the oceans (water expands as it warms) and the loss of land-based ice due to increased melt ing.

Global sea level rose by about 120 m during the several mil-lennia that followed the end of the last ice age (approximately 21,000 years ago), and stabilised between 3,000 and 2,000 years ago. Sea level indicators suggest that global sea level did not change signifi cantly from then until the late 19th century. The instrumental record of modern sea level change shows evidence for onset of sea level rise during the 19th century. Estimates for the 20th century show that global average sea level rose at a rate of about 1.7 mm yr–1.

Satellite observations available since the early 1990s provide more accurate sea level data with nearly global coverage. This decade-long satellite altimetry data set shows that since 1993, sea level has been rising at a rate of around 3 mm yr–1, signifi cantly higher than the average during the previous half century. Coastal tide gauge measurements confi rm this observation, and indicate that similar rates have occurred in some earlier decades.

In agreement with climate models, satellite data and hydro-graphic observations show that sea level is not rising uniformly around the world. In some regions, rates are up to several times the global mean rise, while in other regions sea level is falling. Sub-stantial spatial variation in rates of sea level change is also inferred from hydrographic observations. Spatial variability of the rates of sea level rise is mostly due to non-uniform changes in temperature and salinity and related to changes in the ocean circulation.

Near-global ocean temperature data sets made available in recent years allow a direct calculation of thermal expansion. It is believed that on average, over the period from 1961 to 2003, thermal expansion contributed about one-quarter of the observed sea level rise, while melting of land ice accounted for less than half. Thus, the full magnitude of the observed sea level rise during that period was not satisfactorily explained by those data sets, as reported in the IPCC Third Assessment Report.

During recent years (1993–2003), for which the observing system is much better, thermal expansion and melting of land ice each account for about half of the observed sea level rise, although there is some uncertainty in the estimates.

The reasonable agreement in recent years between the observed rate of sea level rise and the sum of thermal expansion and loss of land ice suggests an upper limit for the magnitude of change in land-based water storage, which is relatively poorly known. Mod-el results suggest no net trend in the storage of water over land due to climate-driven changes but there are large interannual and decadal fl uctuations. However, for the recent period 1993 to 2003,

the small discrepancy between observed sea level rise and the sum of known contributions might be due to unquantifi ed human-induced processes (e.g., groundwater extraction, impoundment in reservoirs, wetland drainage and deforestation).

Global sea level is projected to rise during the 21st century at a greater rate than during 1961 to 2003. Under the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario by the mid-2090s, for instance, global sea level reaches 0.22 to 0.44 m above 1990 levels, and is rising at about 4 mm yr–1. As in the past, sea level change in the future will not be geographically uniform, with regional sea level change varying within about ±0.15 m of the mean in a typical model projection. Thermal expansion is pro-jected to contribute more than half of the average rise, but land ice will lose mass increasingly rapidly as the century progresses. An important uncertainty relates to whether discharge of ice from the ice sheets will continue to increase as a consequence of accel-erated ice fl ow, as has been observed in recent years. This would add to the amount of sea level rise, but quantitative projections of how much it would add cannot be made with confi dence, owing to limited understanding of the relevant processes.

Figure 1 shows the evolution of global mean sea level in the past and as projected for the 21st century for the SRES A1B scenario.

FAQ 5.1, Figure 1. Time series of global mean sea level (deviation from the 1980-1999 mean) in the past and as projected for the future. For the period before 1870, global measurements of sea level are not available. The grey shading shows the uncertainty in the estimated long-term rate of sea level change (Section 6.4.3). The red line is a reconstruction of global mean sea level from tide gauges (Section 5.5.2.1), and the red shading denotes the range of variations from a smooth curve. The green line shows global mean sea level observed from satellite altimetry. The blue shading represents the range of model projections for the SRES A1B scenario for the 21st century, relative to the 1980 to 1999 mean, and has been calculated independently from the observations. Beyond 2100, the projections are increasingly dependent on the emissions scenario (see Chapter 10 for a discussion of sea level rise projections for other scenarios considered in this report). Over many centuries or millennia, sea level could rise by several metres (Section 10.7.4).

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Klimawandel: Permafrostböden tauen auf ...

... entweichendes Methan beschleunigt den Klimawandel

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Klimawandel: Amazonas trocknet aus?

... absterbende Biomasse beschleunigt den Klimawandel

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Klimawandel: Golfstrom versiegt?

... Wärmetransport nach Mitteleuropa?Quelle: IPCC - 2001

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Klimawandel: Wirbelstürme

... seit kurzem auch vor Südamerika und Europa

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100 $Worauf "wetten" die Spekulanten?

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Ölproduktion ... die Hubbert Kurve

Peak

... wann beginnen die Probleme?

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Ölproduktion in den USA

8

Die Liste der Länder mit sinkender Ölförderung wird immer länger

Die US-Ölförderung sank im Jahr 2004 mit durchschnittlich 7,24 Mio. Barrel täglich auf das niedrigste Ni-veau seit mehr als 50 Jahren. Das wa-ren abermals 2,2 % weniger als im Vorjahr und bereits 19 % weniger als im Jahr 1990. Der Tagesverbrauch er-reichte mit 20,5 Mio. Barrel im 2004 einen neuen Höchstwert, 20 % höher als im Jahr 1990.

Grossbritanniens Ölförderung war im Jahr 2004 bereits 30 % unter dem Maximum des Jahres 1999. Die Ölnation wird demnächst weni-ger Öl fördern als sie selber ver-braucht.

Norwegens Ölförderung betrug im Jahr 2004 bereits 10 % weniger als während des Maximums im Jahr 2000.

Indonesien ist der erste OPEC-Staat, der Erdöl kaufen muss. Seit 1996 ist die Erdölförderung in Indonesien bereits um über 25 % zurückgegan-gen und nun hat Indonesien im März 2004 mehr importiert als ex-portiert.

Weitere Länder die eine klar sin-kende Förderung aufweisen sind: Ägypten, Argentinien, Australien, Kolumbien, Oman und Syrien.

In China übersteigt der kräftig wachsende Verbrauch seit den

02468

101214161820

1935 45 55 65 75 85 95 2005

Nettoimporte: 2000: 53% 2010: 65%

Texas

Rest USA

Alaska

GoMTiefwasser(>200m)

Flüssiggas(NGL )

Jahr

Mb/Tag

Quelle: Texas Railroad Commission, US Energy Information Administration 2005 2004-Daten für Golf von Mexiko (GoM) LBST?Schätzung LBST-Prognosen

1 Mb/Tag = 58 Mio. m3/Jah r

Vergangenheit Prognose

USA

Grossbritannien (einzelne Erdölfelder)

Norwegen (einzelne Erdölfelder)

Peak ca. 1970

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Ölproduktion in Norwegen

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Ölproduktion in Großbritannien

Quelle: www.energiekrise.de - Stand 08.2004

?Ist das der

politische

Klima-

wandel?

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4

As the production of conventional oil is declining, this group of countries will be able tosupply additional amounts only from non-conventional sources. Non-conventional oilsands in Canada and Venezuela will contribute 1-1.5 Mb/day, provided that the alreadyannounced expansion plans will be realised without any further delay.

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Figure: Oil production of countries outside OPEC and FSU

2.3. Former Soviet Union (FSU)

The oil production of the Former Soviet Union peaked reaching a production rate of morethan 12 Mb/day at the end of the 80's. Soon afterwards production collapsed by almost50% within 5 years. The production peak at the end of the 80's had been forecasted bywestern geologists based on the depletion patterns of the largest oil fields [7]. However,the following production collapse during the economic break down turned out to be muchsteeper than expected. For this reason, Russian companies were able to stop this declineafter the liberalisation of the oil market and to increase production levels again – in someyears at double-digit rates during the last 5 years - with the help of internationalcooperations and investments. However, this fast recovery now comes to an end as theeasily accessible fields have been developed and the financial and technological backlogis widely closed.

Recently the director of the Russian energy agency, Sergej Oganesyan, conceded for the

Ölproduktion außerhalb OPEC und FSU

Quelle: LBST GmbH - Stand 10.2004

!

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Zeitachse des Ölzeitalters - Trends

Quelle: http://www.raize.ch/Geologie/erdoel/oil.html - Stand 04.2005

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Peak ca. 2008

?

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!

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Das “große Bild”

Peak im Jahre2008 ± 3

2%Rückgang

2%

Wachstum

Bei 84 Mb/d wären 2% ein jährlicherFehlbetrag von ca. 1,7 Mb pro Tag

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Das “große Bild”

Bei 84 Mb/d wären 2% ein jährlicherFehlbetrag von ca. 1,7 Mb pro Tag

2%Rückgang

2%

Wachstum4%?

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Was genau sind 1,7 Millionen Fass Öl pro Tag?

100 Millionen Hektar Raps... sechs mal mehr als die gesamte deutsche Landwirtschaftsfläche

100 Millionen Tonnen Öl pro Jahr... der gesamte Ölverbrauch Deutschlands

100 Atomkraftwerke... ein viertel aller AKWs dieser Welt

30 Millionen Hektar Wald... dreimal mehr als die gesamte deutsche Waldfläche

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Lösung: Die Marktkräfte werden es richten?

55$

80$

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Lösung: Die Marktkräfte werden es richten?

55$

80$

“Demand Destruction”

ist gefährlich!

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Lösung: “Die Saudis drehen den Ölhahn auf”?

20.10.07 09:32The Oil Drum | The Hubbert Linearization Applied on Ghawar

Page 1 of 29http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3050#more

The Hubbert Linearization Applied on GhawarPosted by Khebab on October 10, 2007 - 10:00amTopic: Supply/ProductionTags: exports, ghawar, hubbert, original, saudi arabia

The following analysis is based on a chart from Frederik Robelius (see Figure 2 below) from which I retrieved the production profile for Ghawarfrom 1950 to 2003 (xls file). Using the Hubbert Linearization method to fit a logistic curve, we get a size estimate for Ghawar close to whatother TOD contributors (Stuart and Euan) derived using advanced analysis. A possible decline of Ghawar is happening in a context of record oilrig counts, record domestic consumption and record oil prices.

Fig. 1 Sources: oil supply from the EIA (crude oil + condensate); proven reserves, oil prices and domestic consumption from BP statistical review (2007); population from the UN;

oil discoveries from IHS; the major currencies index from the Federal Reserve; Ghawar decline based on a logistic fit. Click To Enlarge.

Executive Summary:

The fitting of a logistic curve (Hubbert Linearization) on Ghawar production produces an URR around 100.59 ± 8.59 Gb with a possibledecline rate around 2.6%/year (asymptotic decline at 7.41%/year).The fitting of a logistic curve on non Ghawar production (crude oil + condensate) produces an URR around 60.13 ± 12.78 Gb.The Hubbert Linearization on total crude oil + condensate production gives an URR at 200 ± 24 Gb which is 20-40 Gb higher than thesum of the two above components.If Ghawar is in terminal decline, supply growth from other fields has to be at least 2% a year in order to maintain a flat production and 4%a year in order to maintain flat exports.

Fig. 2 Saudi Arabia and Ghawar production from a presentation given by Frederik Robelius (pdf here). Click To Enlarge.

Hubbert Linearization Applied on Ghawar Only

The Hubbert Linearization technique is applied on the curve profile above and we get the following result:

Quelle: theoildrum.com - November 2007

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Lösung: “Die Saudis drehen den Ölhahn auf”?

20.10.07 09:32The Oil Drum | The Hubbert Linearization Applied on Ghawar

Page 1 of 29http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3050#more

The Hubbert Linearization Applied on GhawarPosted by Khebab on October 10, 2007 - 10:00amTopic: Supply/ProductionTags: exports, ghawar, hubbert, original, saudi arabia

The following analysis is based on a chart from Frederik Robelius (see Figure 2 below) from which I retrieved the production profile for Ghawarfrom 1950 to 2003 (xls file). Using the Hubbert Linearization method to fit a logistic curve, we get a size estimate for Ghawar close to whatother TOD contributors (Stuart and Euan) derived using advanced analysis. A possible decline of Ghawar is happening in a context of record oilrig counts, record domestic consumption and record oil prices.

Fig. 1 Sources: oil supply from the EIA (crude oil + condensate); proven reserves, oil prices and domestic consumption from BP statistical review (2007); population from the UN;

oil discoveries from IHS; the major currencies index from the Federal Reserve; Ghawar decline based on a logistic fit. Click To Enlarge.

Executive Summary:

The fitting of a logistic curve (Hubbert Linearization) on Ghawar production produces an URR around 100.59 ± 8.59 Gb with a possibledecline rate around 2.6%/year (asymptotic decline at 7.41%/year).The fitting of a logistic curve on non Ghawar production (crude oil + condensate) produces an URR around 60.13 ± 12.78 Gb.The Hubbert Linearization on total crude oil + condensate production gives an URR at 200 ± 24 Gb which is 20-40 Gb higher than thesum of the two above components.If Ghawar is in terminal decline, supply growth from other fields has to be at least 2% a year in order to maintain a flat production and 4%a year in order to maintain flat exports.

Fig. 2 Saudi Arabia and Ghawar production from a presentation given by Frederik Robelius (pdf here). Click To Enlarge.

Hubbert Linearization Applied on Ghawar Only

The Hubbert Linearization technique is applied on the curve profile above and we get the following result:

Klappt nicht!

Quelle: theoildrum.com - November 2007

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Lösung: Mehr Öl aus bestehenden Ölfeldern?

Quelle: Chris Skrebowski - 05.2005

Beispiel: Alaska North Slope !

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Lösung: Mehr Öl aus bestehenden Ölfeldern?

Quelle: Chris Skrebowski - 05.2005

Beispiel: Alaska North Slope

Klappt nicht!

!

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Lösung: Produktion aus Ölsanden?

UnkonventionellKonventionell

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Lösung: Produktion aus Ölsanden?

UnkonventionellKonventionell

Zu langsam!

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National Petroleum Council Report - Juli 2007

Quelle: Internet - Juli 2007

NATIONAL PETROLEUM COUNCIL

Draft Report

Facing the Hard Truths about Energy

A comprehensive view to 2030 of global oil and natural gas

July 18, 2007

This is a working document solely for the review and use of the participants in the

National Petroleum Council’s Global Oil and Gas Study, and was approved on July 18 by

the members of the National Petroleum Council subject to final editing. A final report

and accompanying CD will be published and available to the public in September.

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27Tropisch

Brasilie

Ende Mä

auf der

Bunde

Diese

niedr

nich

der

StScu

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50 -

70%

Ver

lust

durc

h Ab

wär

me

Fossile Struktur - 3 Sektoren

50 -

70%

Ver

lust

durc

h Ab

wär

me

Strom Wärme Verkehr

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Solare Struktur ... Effiziente Netzwerke

50 -

70%

Ver

lust

durc

h Ab

wär

me

Verkehr

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“Nachts scheint keine Sonne!?”

Aber ...

Tom

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“Die Erneuerbaren sind nicht grundlastfähig!?”

Aber ...

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Das Kombikraftwerk - 100% Erneuerbar

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Das Kombikraftwerk - 100% ErneuerbarBeispiel: Windpark “Nauen”

Beispiel: Biogasanlage “Pliening”

100% Real

! 1/10.000 der Bundesrepublik wurde simuliert

! 28 reale Anlagen-standorte wurden kombiniert und zentral überwacht

! Realer Lastgang wurde real nachgefahren

www.kombikraftwerk.de

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ca. 15%ca. 55%

ca. 30%

100% Real

Tom

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PrognosePrognose


Stromspeicher

Fahrplan

www.kombikraftwerk.deGasspeicher

100% Real

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Das Kombikraftwerk - 100% ErneuerbarJanuar


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Das Kombikraftwerk - 100% ErneuerbarMai


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Das Kombikraftwerk - 100% ErneuerbarJuli


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Das Kombikraftwerk - 100% ErneuerbarNovember


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www.kombikraftwerk.deIm-/ExportSonne Wind BiogasWasser

Prognose FahrplanEnergiebedarf

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80 TWh290 TWh

Erneuerbares Kombikraftwerk - EE-100

... dient als Speicher

150 TWh

www.kombikraftwerk.de375 TWh

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80 TWh290 TWh

Erneuerbares Kombikraftwerk - EE-100

... dient als Speicher

150 TWh


= ca. 3-6 Mio. Hektar

375 TWh

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50 -

70%

Ver

lust

durc

h Ab

wär

me

Verkehr??

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“Well-to-Wheel” Vergleich pro HektarBtLÖlpflanzen Biogas

1,5

10.000Treibstoffertrag

(in kWh/ha * a)

Energiebedarf

(in kWh/100 km)

Versorgte PKWs

(bei 15.000 km/a) 4,3 4,3 110

40.000 30.000 250.000

46 62 46 15

Solarelektrisch

Quelle: Eigene Berechnungen

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“Well-to-Wheel” Vergleich pro HektarBtLÖlpflanzen Biogas

10.000 40.000 30.000 500.000

46 62 46 15

Solarelektrisch

220Quelle: Eigene Berechnungen

Treibstoffertrag

(in kWh/ha * a)

Energiebedarf

(in kWh/100 km)

Versorgte PKWs

(bei 15.000 km/a) 1,5 4,3 4,3

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“Kraftstoffstrategie der Effizienz”SolarelektrischBtLÖlpflanzen Biogas

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“Kraftstoffstrategie der Effizienz”SolarelektrischÖlpflanzen

Stadt

... weil regional ... weil schadstoffarm ... weil effizient

Land Industrie

KurzstreckeLangstrecke

Stadt

!Flächeneffizienz

Faktor 20-50

Biogas

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2,65 m

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3,39 m

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3,39 m

Mitsubishi i-EVPersonen:! 4

Geschwindigkeit:! 130 km/h

Reichweite:! 160 km

Antrieb:! Elektro

Vermarktung:! Japan

Status:! Feldtest

Tom

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ft Modec LKWZuladung:! 2000 kg


Reichweite:! min. 160 km

Antrieb:! Elektro

Vermarktung:! England

Status:! Kleinserie

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se d

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ukun

ft KillaCyclePiloten:! 1


0-100 km/h:! 1,5 sec

0-233 km/h:! 8,8 sec

Vermarktung:! ?

Status:! Weltrekord !Batterietechnik

Lithium

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VW Space Up BluePersonen:! 4


Reichweite (EV-Mode):! 100 km

Antrieb:! Plug-In-Hybrid

Vermarktung:! -

Status:! Designkonzept

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Elektroantrieb

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Elektroantrieb

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“Notstromgenerator”

Elektroantrieb

Batterien

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Brennstofftank“Notstromgenerator”

Elektroantrieb

Batterien

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Batterien

Elektroantrieb

Kurzstrecke

Langstrecke

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Batterien

Elektroantrieb

Kurzstrecke

Langstrecke

"Steckdosen"-Hybrid =Plug-in Hybrid

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um 1906 - "Lohner-Porsche Mixte"

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“Elektroautos ... da werden die Emissionen doch nur ins Kraftwerk verlagert!?”

Aber ...

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50 -

70%

Ver

lust

durc

h Ab

wär

me

Verkehr??

Tom

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haus

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schu

ss “

Sola

re M

obili

tät”

Klim

awan

del u

nd E

nerg

ieen

gpäs

se d

er Z

ukun

ft


Langzeitspeicher: Biomasse

Tom

i Eng

el -

Fac

haus

schu

ss “

Sola

re M

obili

tät”

Klim

awan

del u

nd E

nerg

ieen

gpäs

se d

er Z

ukun

ft


!Stichwort

Smart

Grid

Tom

i Eng

el -

Fac

haus

schu

ss “

Sola

re M

obili

tät”

Klim

awan

del u

nd E

nerg

ieen

gpäs

se d

er Z

ukun

ft


!Stichwort

Smart

Grid Vehicle Strategie

Kurzzeitspeicher: Batterie

Tom

i Eng

el -

Fac

haus

schu

ss “

Sola

re M

obili

tät”

Klim

awan

del u

nd E

nerg

ieen

gpäs

se d

er Z

ukun

ft


Tom

i Eng

el -

Fac

haus

schu

ss “

Sola

re M

obili

tät”

Klim

awan

del u

nd E

nerg

ieen

gpäs

se d

er Z

ukun

ft

100% Solar !

www.100-prozent-erneuerbare.de

= regional= nachhaltig= sicher= demokratisch

www.dgs.de

Tomi [email protected]

klimawandel und energieengpässe der zukunft...klimawandel und energieengpässe der zukunft omi...

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