knowable future
DESCRIPTION
A description of the concept of the knowable future with examples.TRANSCRIPT
The Knowable Future
Paul Schumann
UT Quest
October 29, 2002
10/29/02 Glocal Vantage, Inc. 2
Topics
• Uncertain Present
• Knowable Future
• Forecasting Methods
• Future Forecast
• Summary
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Uncertain Present
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Knowable Future
• Demographic
• Sociopolitical
• Technological
• Economic
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Forecasting Methods
• Surveillance
• Trend Analysis
• Expert Opinion
• Integrative
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Future Forecast
• First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)
• Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)
• Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)
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Economic Maturation of Technology
• Nonproductive (25 years)
• Counter Productive (25 years)
• Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)
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The Real Costs of Information Technology
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Information Technology
Source: Jeremy Greenwood, The Third Industrial Revolution
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Demographic
• Population Growth
• Generational Homogenuity
• Multiculturalism
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Population GrowthPopulation of US
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(M
illio
ns)
Actual
Projection
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Age Distribution
Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Educationin America 2000 - 2020
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Age and Violent Crime
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 & older
Age Category
Per
cen
t
Source: OJJDB Statistical Briefing Book
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Violent Crimes
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Year
Vio
len
t C
rim
es
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
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US Population (2000)
White71%
Black12%
American Indian1%
Asian & Pacific Islander
4%Hispanic
12%
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US Population (2020)
White63%
Black13%
American Indian1%
Asian & Pacific Islander
6%
Hispanic17%
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US Population (2100)
White40%
Black13%American Indian
1%
Asian & Pacific Islander
13%
Hispanic33%
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Sociopolitical
• Openness
• Gender Equity
• Decentralization
• Pluralism
• Paradoxical
• Non-Career Lives
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Technological
• Information– Internet
– Personal Devices
– Wireless Digital
– Open Source Wars
– New Software Applications
– Embedded Computers
• Genomics• Nanomachines
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Economic
• Growth
• Service Based
• Virtual Integration
• Glocality
• Games
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Real Gross Domestic Product
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
1929
1932
1935
1938
1941
1944
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
Year
Rea
l Gro
ss D
om
esti
c P
rod
uct
(B
illio
ns)
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Nature of Work
Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Educationin America 2000 - 2020
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Summary
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Opportunities
• Threats
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Central Texas ChapterWorld Future Society
• Contribute to a reasoned awareness of the future and its impact on Central Texas with emphasis on the study of the future of Central Texas and assessment of findings, without advocating particular ideologies or engaging in political activities.
• Advance serious and responsible investigation and assessment of the future.
• Promote the development of methods for the study of the future.
• Increase public understanding and assessment of future-oriented studies.
• Facilitate communication and cooperation among organizations and individuals interested in studying or planning for the future.
• Learn to become a better futurist.
• Network with diverse people interested in the future.
www.glocalvantage.com/CenTexWFS/index.html
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Paul Schumann
• www.glocalvantage.com
• (512) 302-1935
• Glocal Vantage, Inc.
• PO Box 26947
• Austin, TX 78755-0947