korea talk on emerging technology and ideas for korea's new creative economy policy
TRANSCRIPT
Emerging Technologies and Creative Economy
United Graduate School of Science and Technology
June 20, 2013
Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project
Wise to invest in a diverse set of new creative economic activities (not Panda Bear)
• Internet of things• Increasing intelligence • 3-D Printing• Synthetic Biology• Nanotechnology• Retrofitting buildings for energy production• Continue robotic manufacturing• One-Person Businesses (massive training
programs)
Next Mega Trend: Conscious-Technology
When the distinction between these two trends becomes blurred, we will have
reached the Post-Information Age
HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS
BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT
19852000
20152030
Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War TimeAgricultural Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical
Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear
Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible
Conscious-Technology Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented
Simplification/Generalization of History and an Alternative Future
Synthetic Biology… the next Revolution
Synthetic Biology
Nanotechnology
Internet of Things – Ubiquitous Computing
Integration of jewelry and the Internet of things
브록 힌즈만 , business futuresSRI
3-D Printing
3D 프린터로 체스 프린트 중인 박여욱유엔미래포럼대표
3-D Printing the base of a chess piece
The 3D-printed titanium lower mandible implant
Augmented Reality
Augmented Reality
Google does it again!
터키 유엔미래포럼대표 홀로그람 연설 중 , 바크 세계미래포럼 중
Retrofitting buildings to produce Energy
UCLA:Widows can have very thin film to make electricity new photovoltaic capacities
Computational Science
Computational biology
Computational Chemistry
Computational Physics
All Accelerate with Moore’s Law
If\then Nano-technology
Synthetic Biology
Internet of Things
3D Printing Conscious-Technology
Augmented Reality
Nano-technology xxx Synthetic Biology xxx Internet of Things xxx 3D Printing
xxx Conscious-Technology xxx Augmented Reality xxx
Emerging Technologies Table
Creative Industries…. for what?
• For arts?• For media? • For entertainment?• Yes, that is part of it, but also creativity to
address the 15 Global Challenges• Businesses grow and survive that address
real challenges – especially long-term challenges
15 Global Challenges: A Framework for Understanding Global Change, and an Agenda for Humanity
Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate
change?
Challenge 2: How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
Challenge 3: How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?
Challenge 4: How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
Challenge 5: How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term
perspectives?
Challenge 6: How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for
everyone?
Challenge 7: How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the
gap between rich and poor?
Challenge 8: How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune
microorganisms be reduced?
Challenge 9: How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work
and institutions change?
Challenge 10: How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of
weapons of mass destruction?
Challenge 11: How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?
Challenge 13: How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
Challenge 14: How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human
condition?
Challenge 15: How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
Challenge 12: How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
32 Seeds of the Future of Arts, Media, and Entertainment
Cross-Impact these 32 seeds to see what new creative industries are possible
The Creative Economy… not Catch-up Economy
• Requires cultural/perceptual changes– Silicon Valley example of boss and employee– Google example of 20% paid free time – pools of creativity– Finding markets worldwide vs. finding jobs where you live
• Builds on all South Koreans having Internet access with the processing power of a human brain before 2020 and many more brains per person after that.
• Acts with Internet of things, and nanotech sensor nets• Increases the changes from searching for a job, to searching for markets around
the world for individual’s capabilities. • Changes market as the center to attract people to physical location to each
person as the center for a 2 billion person set of markets today, but 9 billion/person in 37 years.
Creative Economy Management
1. Hierarchy
2. Networks
3. Intersection of Networks: Nodes
4. Connecting Nodes into Fields of Play
5. Connecting Fields of Play
One-Person Businesses
Find markets around the world for what you are interested in doing
not non-existing jobs
Futures Research and the Miracle of South Korea’s Development
President Park Chung Hee
Herman Kahn, inventor of scenarios for policy, talked through development strategies with Pres. Park over years and many visits
허먼 칸과 박정희 잦은 만남사진출처 : 민주화기념사업회
23年 4月 14日 박영숙 ( 사 ) 유엔미래포럼 30
Some Elements of Next Economic System
• Capitalist and socialist/communist systems are early industrial age economic systems
• Emerging new economic system, adapted to the globalized world and knowledge economy
• Assessing some future elements of the next global economy
• 35 elements (not policies, events, developments, or goals) that might help shape the next economic system over the next 20 years:
– rated as to their importance to improving the human condition– potential positive and negative impacts’ descriptions– analysis of levels of agreement
Top 10 Most Beneficial Elements by 2030
Elements Imp Resp Agr.
1 Ethics: a key element in economic exchanges 8.36 168 0.86
2 New GDP definitions that include all forms of national wealth 7.96 164 0.78
3 Small tax on use of commons directed to global public goods 7.75 172 0.83
4 Collective intelligence: global commons for the knowledge economy 7.74 155 0.88
5Continuously updated education on the evolving economic system and its elements 7.64 154 0.83
6 Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency.
7.61 168 0.79
7 Value of natural resources used in production included in pricing 7.56 162 0.76
8 Women’s political-economic roles essentially on par with men 7.25 182 0.68
9 Increased public disclosure of "tax havens", secret accounts 7.10 153 0.68
10Wealth, re-defined as experience and not the accumulation of money or physical things 6.83 161 0.62
Some other Interesting Elements
• Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination with much greater transparency.
• Non-ownership, as distinct from private ownership or collective/state ownership (e.g. current open source software)
• Alternatives to continuously creating artificial demand and growth
• One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet—individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs
Future of Education is Increasing Intelligence:both Individual and Collective Intelligence
How to increase Individual Intelligence
1. Responding to feedback2. Consistency of love, diversity of environment3. Nutrition4. Reasoning exercises5. Believing it is possible (placebo effect) 6. Contact with intelligent people or via VR simulations7. Software systems and gaming8. Neuro-pharmacology (enhanced brain chemistry)9. Memes on classroom walls and else where, for example: intelligence is sexy10. Low stress, stimulating environments, with certain music, color, fragrances
improves concentration and performance11. Longer term:
1. Reverse engineering the brain (President Obama)2. Applied Epigenetics and genetic engineering3. Designer microbes to eat the plaque on neurons
How to Increase Collective Intelligence
• It emerges from the integration and synergies among• data/info/knowledge• software/hardware• experts and others with insight
• that continually learns from feedback
• to produce just in time knowledge for better decisions
• than these elements acting alone.
Why the Transition to CIS?
• The velocity, volume, and complexity of change and challenges are increasing exponentially
• Some local issues depend on global developments• The amount of information and data is exploding• Our work shows that humanity has the resources to address
the challenges ahead • Will we make the necessary decisions?• We believe collective intelligence used by trans-Institutional
networks can help
An Application of Collective Intelligence:
Global Futures Intelligence System at www.themp.org
Global Challenge Menu in GFIS
1. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies2. Report (detailed text) on the challenge from State of the Future3. News items (automatic news feeds – searchable)4. Scanning (annotated, rated information)5. On-going Delphi questionnaires to collect expert judgments6. Public comments7. Discussion groups8. Computer models (mathematical and rules-based), and conceptual
models9. Resources: websites, books, papers, videos10.Updates – all edits11.Digests – Recent scans, edits, discussions
Annual subscriptions to the Global Futures System
Corporations $2,100/year 10 users $25/per additional user
Universities 400/year 10 users $25/per additional use
Individual 99/year 1 user
Online subscription at:http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html
Wise to invest in a diverse set of new creative economic activities (not Panda Bear)
• Internet of things• Increasing intelligence • 3-D Printing• Synthetic Biology• Nanotechnology• Retrofitting buildings for energy production• Continue robotic manufacturing• One-Person Businesses (massive training
programs)
… May become a TransInstitution
The Millennium Project
Purposes of the Millennium Project
• Create a global and on-going capacity to improve thinking about the future
• Make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in
• policymaking
• advanced training
• educational curricula
• public education
• Continually respond to feedback, to accumulate wisdom about potential futures
49 Millennium Project Nodes...
are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:
Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.
25 years ago there was no World Wide Web.
25 years from now: What will be emerging?
And from what?
For further information
Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project
4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax
www.StateoftheFuture.orgwww.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)