krisis asia barat
TRANSCRIPT
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KRISIS ASIA BARAT
ISU UTAMA
Kamaruzaman Yusoff
FSSH UTM SKUDAI
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Timur Tengah Moden: Kesan permainan kuasa besar
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MENGAPA JADI REBUTAN
• KEDUDUKAN STRATEGIK
• PUSAT AGAMA
• SUMBER MINYAK
• HETEROGENOUS-ARAB-TURKI-PARSI
• ISRAEL
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PEMAIN UTAMA: IRAN
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PENGENALAN
• REVOLUSI IRAN
• SISTEM PEMERINTAHAN
• PRESIDEN
• KEBEBASAN WANITA
• SELEPAS JUN 2015
• RAKYAT BELUM PUAS HATI
• APA YG RAKYAT HENDAK?
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STRUKTUR PENTADBIRAN
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AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI
• KUASA PENUH DALAM: EKONOMI, ALAM SEKITAR, POLISI LUAR, PENDIDIKAN, PR DAN KEPENDUDUKAN
• PALING BERKUASA. LANTIK EPGAWAI TINGGI, ASKAR, TVRADIO, MAJLOIS KESELAMATAN
• DI BAWAH ADA DUA ORGAN UTAMA.
– Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
– SETAD
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Ircg (sepah)
• Kawalselia kegiatanekonomi
• Bolot kekayaan 2/3 dariKDNK
• Kuasai ½ dari GLC
• Kuasai 68% dari ekspotnegara
•
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Setad Ejraiye Farmane Hazrate Emam" – Headquarters for Executing the Order of the Imam
• KUASAI SYKT DAN HARTA 95BIL
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PRESIDEN
• SETIAP DUA TAHUN
• KUASA UTAMA
– KETUA EKSEKUTIF
– TIMKETUA ASKAR
– LANTIK TIMPRES, KABINET
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TEKANAN EKONOMI TAMAT JUN 2015• DAPAT SEMULA $100bn • ROUHANI KE EROPAH – BELI PESAWAT 43BIL. • BELI 100 PESAWAT • 2016 - HASIL 1.45 TRIL, KE 16 DUNIA• PERTUMBUHAN 6.5% 2016• PENGELUAR PETROL KE 6 DUNIA• 4JUTA TONG SEHARI• 80% HASIL MINYAK• EKSPORT KE China, Turkey, India, Japan dan South Korea. • (Source: "Iran Wants to Double Oil Exports," The Wall
Street Journal July 7, 2015.)• TRUMP BATALKAN SEMUA DAN TAMBAH LG PD 2020
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MENGAPA RAKYAT MARAH?
• UTAMAKAN BANTUAN LUAR– SYRIA, HIZBULLAH, IRAQ, PALESTIN
• KORUPSI • TEKANAN HIDUP
– harga barang makanan, pekerjaan,
• Lemah ekonomi – lepas 2015
• SISTEM YG BELUM MANTAP – prinsip politik Syiah– RAKYAT BANDING
• RAKYAT RASA DICENGKAM - HAM– BELUM BEBAS– SISTEM POLITIK– TERTUTUP -
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MASALAH EKONOMI
• NGANGGUR 12%.
• 20% ORG MUDA
• INFLASI
• 1979 – 17%
• 1990 – 49%
• 2000 – 15%
• 2013 – 30%
• Industri kereta menurun60%
– Pekerja berhenti
• Kilang separuh tutup
– Masalah modal, bahanmentah
– Tekanan ekonomi Trump
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KORUPSI
• 2012, TI laporkan kedudukan Iran 133 dari 176
• 2009, audit negara dapati Menteri Minyak zamanAhmadinejad tidak masukkan $1.05 billion.
• 2011, $2.6 billion telah lesap• Larijani kata masalah ekonomi Iran zaman beliau
disebabkan oleh Ahmedinejad. • Menteri Kesihatan, Marzieh Vahid Dastjerdi, kata hanya
600 juta diguna dari 2.5bil bajet yg ada. • 2015, Rahimi, Timpres dihukum 5 thn penjara• 2017, Baghaei dihukum 63 tahun• Ahmedinejad salahguna kuasa 2bil.
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APA YG MEREKA MAHU
• ULAMA LEBIH PEKA DAN INKLUSIF
– DENGAR
– TIDAK ANTI BARAT
• KEKALKAN PEMERINTAH YG ADA
• BAIKI EKONOMI
– PELUANG PEKERJAAN
– INFRA EKONOMI
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KESIMPULAN IRAN
• NEGARA KAYA
• LEPAS REVOLUSI CUBA NAK JADI HERO
• GUNAKAN SEMANGAT KEBANGSAAN
• LEBIH BANYAK BANTU LUAR: HAMAS, HASHD SHA’BI, JIHAD, HIZBULLAH, SYRIA
• KURANG SENSITIF DGN ISU DALAMAN
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PEMAIN KEDUA: USA
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UDARA:16, LAUT:8,
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JUMLAH ASKAR USA
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JERUSALEM, TRUMP DAN REAKSI DUNIA
• JANJI DLM PR PRESIDEN
• DPT SOKONGAN ZIONIS LOBI
• ARAB DAN SOKONG USAHA TRUMP
• PIMPINAN ISLAM DAH PECAH
• ISRAEL SDG TUNGGU
• DUNIA ISLAM - TOLAK
– OIC DITUBUH UTK BEBASKAN BATUL MAQDIS
• DUNIA BARAT TOLAK
– DUNIA AKAN MEDAN TEMPOR
– MUSLIM AKAN TINDAK
– EKONOMI AKAN MAKIN LEMAH
– HARGA MINYAK NAIK
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TRUMP DAN ZIONIS
• Donald Trump is so ill-informed about the nature of his office, so openly mendacious (TAKBOLEH HARAP), so self-destructive, or so brazen (TAKMALU)
• https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/10/will-donald-trump-destroy-the-presidency/537921/
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PEMAIN KETIGA: ISIS DAN SYRIA
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PETA GERAKAN ISIS
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JOHN McCAIN DAN ALBAGHDADI 2013
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PEMAIN KEEMPAT: SAUDI
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• Mula 1744-1818
• Lari ke Kuwait sejak1893, dikalahkan olehMuhammad Ali Pasha
• 1902 – rampas Riyadh
• Rampas najd dan Hijaz1913-1926.
• 1927 – isytihar raja Najd
• 1932 – raja Saudi
•
FAMILI SAUD
• 15000 ahli keluarga
• 2000 yg aktif dan kawalSaudi Arabia
• Bergaduh dgn Ottoman, Sharif Mekah, al-Rashid di Ha’il
• peranan British
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• Faisal, menlu1932 to 1975,
• Abdullah, ketua askar 1963 to 2010,
• Sultan, raja muda – jadi menteri pertahanansejak 1962 2011,
• King Salman, gabenor Riyadh 1963-2011
Lantikan raja saudara kpd saudara bukansaudara kpd anak
PELUANG MENJADI RAJA
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LOKASI UTAMA PERSENGKETAAN: IRAQ
USA, IRAN, RUSIA, FRANCE,
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Ethnografi Iraq
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Kedudukan Iraq
• Pembekal Minyak Dunia: minyak di Mosul
• Pengeluar minyak kedua dunia
• Negara Arab kedua terbesar
• sosialis - Rusia
• Negara tidak stabil
• Pemerintah zalim
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KESAN PERANG KEPADA POLITIK DUNIA
USA SEBAGAI PENJAJAH:
i- militer
ii- pkln tentera
iii- paksa org ikut
iv- empire global
WUJUD
SISTEM BARU
DUNIA
i- gerakan aman
ii- USA vs dunia
iii- Israel
iv- Petrol
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TERKINI
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ISU PANAS
• SAUDI SERANG YAMAN (2015)
• IRAN TEMBAK KAPAL USA
• BRITAIN SEKAT KAPAL IRAN
• IRAN? BOM PAIP MINYAK SAUDI
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TINDAKAN GANAS
• TEMBAK QASIMI
• IRAN TEMBAK ERBIL DAN AL-ASAD
• BERANI TAPI TAKUT
• TIADA TINDAK BALAS
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SIAPA QASIM
• KOMANDAN ASKAR LUAR IRAN – ALQUDS
• PIMPINAN UTAMA DLM PERANG IRAQ (1988)
• LAWAN USA DI IRAQ –BUNUH 6K ASKAR
• BANTU USA KALAHKAN ISIS
• BANTU IRAN DI SYRIA, LUBNAN, IRAQ DLL.
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SIAPA QASIM
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KEMATIAN QASIM
• USA
• GUNA UTK LAMBATKAN IMPEACHMENT TRUMP
• NAIKKAN SEMANGAT ANTI IRAN
• RAKYAT USA TAKMAU PERANG
• THN DEPAN PR
• IRAN
• NAIKKAN SEMANGAT
• HARAP RAKYAT LUPAKAN ISU LAIN
• JANJI BALAS DENDAM
• THN DPN PR
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APA YANG BAKAL BERLAKU?
• PERANG DUNIA KETIGA?
• IRAN AKAN TERUSKAN NUKLEAR
• DASAR TRUMP DI ASIA BARAT
– PERLI BUSH
– JANJI KELUAR DRPD
– BISNES ADALAH SEGALANYA
• USA AKAN TINGGALKAN ASIA BARAT?
• KEDUDUKAN SAUDI, BAHRAIN, UAE,
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KESIMPULAN
• MENGAPA PERLU USA DI TIMUR TENGAH?
• APA PIMPINAN ARAB BUAT?
• IRAN DAN TURKI
• KEDUDUKAN ISRAEL
• CHINDIA - KUASA BARU
• JIKA T/T AMAN SELURUH DUNIA AMAN
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