LECTURE L03EXPONENTIAL WORLD

Process by which an organisation transforms labor, capital, material, and information into products and services of greater values

Technology

The value you get out of a product for which you have paid some cost

Product Performance

Innovation

The change in the technology

HOW DOES TECHNOLOGY EVOLVE?

Evolution of technology is closelylinked with the evolution of mankind

Charles Darwin published “On The Origin of Species” in 1852

Evolutionary Process

Each generation breeds the next, and becomes an input

Samuel Butler published 1859

a letter to the editor of the Press

in New Zealand, called

“Darwin among the Machines”

Kingdom of the machines

Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom

Kevin Kelly’s The 7th Kingdom

http://www.bordalierinstitute.com/images/brainEvolution.jpg

Evolution of the human brain

EXPONENTIAL

IF PRODUCT PERFORMANCE DOUBLES EVERY YEAR

IN 10 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE

IN 30 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000,000,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE

THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION

IBM System/360

360/20 with 24K of memory

Computers in 1964

Transistor, 1947

Integrated circuit, 1959

Intel 4004, 1971

Vacuum tube, 1904

THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION

Gordon Moore published an article in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”

Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months

Moore’s Law

Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months

Moore’s Law

Technological growthaccelerates

Exponential Growth

The Fifth Paradigm

1977 Apple II $1,298 4000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz

2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz

30 years of product improvements

iPad2asfastasCray2supercomputer,fractionofthesize

Readmore:http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4

Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011

30 years of product improvements

Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates

Exponential Growth

Flickrpicturebyspwelton

SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD

The Legend of theAmbalappuzha Paal Payasam

The total amount of rice required to fill a 64-squared chess board is (2^ (64) - 1), which is equal to 18446744073709551615 grains

460 billion tons

Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months

Moore’s Law

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

COMPUTERS WILL BE FASTER

COMPUTERS WILL BE SMALLER

COMPUTERS WILL BE CHEAPER

THINGS THAT ONCE WHERE IMPOSSIBLE BECOME POSSIBLE

From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009

And from 2009 to 2014

ANY NEW TECHNOLOGY THAT COMES TO THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 10 YEARS OLD

Source:http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm

Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation

The Long Nose of Innovation

Growth ofTechnology

Evolutionary processes – both biology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e

Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)

PLANS ARE USUALLY ASUME LINAR GROWTH

DESIGN PRODUCTS WITH TECHNOLOGY OFTHE FUTURE IN MIND

TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS ARE USUALLY RIGHT, JUST WRONG IN TIME

MOST PRODUCTS FAIL BECAUSE ALL THE ENABLING FACTORSARE IN PLACE WHEN NEEDED

The Law of Accelerating Returns

Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.

As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.

“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is

exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000

years of progress (at today's rate).”

- Ray Kurzweil

The S-Curve

The S-curveBased on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle

Improvements in performance varies

throughout the life of the technology

The S-curve Improvements in performance varies

throughout the life of the technology

Problem is that people in the R&D phase may

not be right in the growth phase

The S-curve Exponential trends can be composed of

a sequence of S-curves where each

curve is faster

The S-curve Exponential trends can be composed of

a sequence of S-curves where each

curve is faster

Technology Life Cycle

Technology Life Cycle

The technology life-cycle (TLC) describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life"

In the early days

The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market

In the later days

The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market

Technology Life Cycle

Disruptive stress or opportunity

Growth of technology

Our view of the world

DISRUPTIVE STRESS

TECHNOLOGY IS CAUSING PROBLEMS ESTABLISHED COMPANIES ARE TREATED BUSINESS MODELS BECOME IRRELEVANT LAWS BECOME USELESS

DISRUPTIVE OPPURTINTY

NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY HAS SOME MUCH OPPORTUNITY BE AVAILABLE TO SO MANY PEOPLE

Is this evolution of technology good?

Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral

Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology

Peter Diamandis

Why did smartwatches appear in 2014 when the idea came in the 50s

QUESTION

Adjacent Possible

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