LECTURE L14SOFTWARE AND MACHINE LEARNING

The Software Crisis

Software

As computers became more powerful and more common, a new problem surfaced: software

Development of computers was a hardware problem

Software or programs did not get the same attention

Operating systems were primitive and programming was done at a very low level

“[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the machines have become several orders of magnitude more powerful!”

- Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer

Source:Software_crisis

Software Engineering was not a established field

Became known as The Software Crisis

The Software Crisis

Q1

What solved the software crisis?

IBM developed OS/360 for System 360

DEC developed VMS for VAX

Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix

System V, BSD, Solaris

Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with Minix license

Operating Systems

FORTRANMathematical Formula Translation System Released in 1957

Higher level language that became breakthrough in writing software

Created by John Backus of IBM

Came on 2.000 punched cards Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol

Programming Languages

May 25, 1961

Status:

Mainframe era, mini computer early days

Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented

Programming languages new

Q2What role did the US space program have on computer innovation?

“The space program badly needed the things the integrated circuit could provide.”

- Jack St. Clair Kilby

Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company

Initial focus was on memory chips

There was still enormous potential market for calculations

The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realized but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organizations

Semiconductor Industry is Born

Intel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971

8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979

The beginning of the PC

The Microprocessor

The MicroprocessorIntel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business

No market existed No demand at the time

Intel created 4004 for another company

They would not market chips, but built them when ordered

The company cancelled the order and Intel was forced to offer them for sale

Q3

What was the first product in the market after the introduction of computer chips?

HINT: It disrupted a device that was invented in1625

The Calculator

The Calculator

Advances in technology introduced the desktop calculator

The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller

Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s

Replaced the slide rule after 374 years

Calculator Wars

Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more

In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972

Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974

Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues

Think about this!

All mini-computer companies hadwhat it would take to go into smallscale products – they even hadpeople proposing the idea, but they did not!

The Personal Computer

The Personal Computer

MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080

Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches

Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts

Microsoft is BornBill Gates and Paul Allen

Wrote a BASIC interpreter for the Altair

Founded a company they called Micro-Soft

Enter Apple

Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak

Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto

Homebrew Computer Club in 1976

Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth”

Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market

“ThePersonalComputerwillfallflatonitsfaceinbusiness.”

-KenOlsen

Computer Companies

Existing computer companies were not interested in PCs

DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl

Support for machines like this was considered impossible

Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists

Think About This!

The Liquid Network

The Software IndustryFirst applications were non-serious

Soon business applications started to emerge

VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of computer sales was due to this program

Other business apps appeared: Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc.

Disruptive technology

Killer AppsDan Bricklin and Bob Frankston Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet The spreadsheet created a new market

People bought the hardware to run the software

Q4

IBM successfully entered the PC market – according to RPV theory this would be difficult. How did they do this?

IBM PC

IBM decided to enter the PC revolution

The company was loosing market share, competition was growing

Project “Chess”Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn”

Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL

Looked for parts outside of the company

The War of the OS

IBM needed an Operating System

Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary Kildall

Microsoft was providing programming languagesand suggested that IBM make a deal with DR

Robert X. Cringely PBS documentary

The Birth of the Microsoft DOS

The War of the OS

IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from another company

Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market

PC-DOS

Small system Came on a floppy

IBM PCThe IBM PC was introduced 12. August 1981 in New York

4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM,

DOS 1.0 for $1.565

Enter the Clones

Enter the Clones

IBM released all the specification of the machine Open system

This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines Compac was one of them

Enter the ClonesIBM controlled the market for a few years

They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from cannibalising higher-priced models

The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines

The PC market took off

IBM started to loose market share

PC Compatible Machines Ruled

Early 80s IBM PC became the standard hardware

MS-DOS became the industry standard OS

Command Line Interface – CLI Text User Interfaces – TUI

Key Trend

Focus in on hardware, the software is good-enough

Adoption Life Cycle

Still in the early stages – technology is the focus

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” - Alan Key

“The Demo” of the Century in 1968

The Demo 1968

The Demo in 1968Doug Engelbart at the Augmentation Research Centre in Melno Park

Demonstrated the future of computing

Features

A pointing device – the Mouse Hypertext, graphical user interface

Dynamic file linking

Shared-screen collaboration involving two persons at different sites communicating over a network with audio and video interface

Xerox Parc

Xerox Parc

Alto Computer 1972

Xerox created a lab in 1970

Palo Alto Research Park – PARC

PARC was a place for visionaries

The Alto computer system had Graphical User Interface – GUI and a mouse as an input

Desktop metaphor with Files and folders

Then Steve came on a visit

Graphical User Interfaces – GUI

Steve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979 Negotiated at deal with Xerox

They showed him: Object Oriented ProgrammingComputer networksGraphical User Interface

Apple started to work on this vision The Pirate Years

RPV TheoryXerox had just build theOS of the future but theydid nothing with it

Graphical User Interfaces – GUIDesktop metaphor

Point, Click, Drag

Files,foldersIcons

Windows,scrollbars

Menus

Graphicalfonts Clipboard,cutandpaste,undo

Point,activate,select

Apple LisaFirst commercial computer with a GUI

Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995

Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz clock rate and had 1MB RAM

Featured cooperative (non-preemptive) multi-tasking and virtual memory

Q5

Why did the Lisa fail?

Apple Lisa

First commercial computer with a GUI

Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995

Impact: Business failure Too expensive Too slow

Adjacent Possible

Technology wasn’t there yet

MacintoshIn 1984, Apple launched Macintosh Cost $1.995

Graphical User Interface

This set the standard for Operating Systems

Specification: 128 KB of RAM Screen was a 9-inch, 512x342 pixel monochrome display

Macintosh

Acceptance was slow The Mac was underpowered The GUI required memory and power

Writing Software was difficult

Gained popularity in education and with graphical designers – desktop publishers

Not so popular in the traditional business sector Microsoft provided applications (office apps)

Others Join the GameMicrosoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985

Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces were the future

Regarded Front-end to DOS

Other players IBM TopView, DR GEM

Impact Software companies ignored Windows The business sector was not ready

DOS was in Crisis

By 1985 Microsoft had released DOS 3

But frustration increased

Q6

What were customers looking for?

DOS was in CrisisSingle task system – you can only run one program at the time

The 640 KB memory barrier TSR – Terminate and Stay Resident became popular but was causing problems

Users were looking for multitasking

Run more than one program at a time

More advanced operating system was needed

Windows 3.0Windows finally became usable Released May 1990

Better use of memory Multitasking Used the 286 and 386 hardware better Support for CD-ROM Solitaire

Impact: First GUI used by the PC market The end of DOS, finally

Windows 95

KEY TREND

Computers become consumer devices

Windows 95

Microsoft turned to consumers Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market Support for the Internet Internet Explorer Friendlier user interfaces

Impact

Released with great fanfare Came to dominate the OS market The OS become more important than the hardware

Operating System for Consumers

Operating Systems Today

Ubuntu

Mac OS X

Windows

More choices, less important

Operating Systems Today

iOS

Android

Lessons

▪ Shift from hardware to software▪ None of the minicomputer makers became a

significant factor in the desktop personal computer market

▪ The PC was disruptive technology▪ The minicomputer users were not buying PCs –

yet▪ This created a new set of entrants: Apple, Tandy,

Commodore, and IBM

▪ In the late 1980s the performance of PCs met the needs of minicomputer users

▪ This severely wounded minicomputer makers – many of them failed

▪ At same time IBM succeeded in entering the PC market – how?

▪ It created an autonomous organization in Florida – far away from it’s New York headquarters

▪ They created the PC market▪ Then headquarters took control and lost control to

the Clones

Lessons

▪ Xerox mangement did not enter the computer market

▪ PARC members tried to show management – but they “just didn’t get it”

▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business – their customers were not asking for computer systems

▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their resources, processes and values– RPV theory

Lessons

▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of computers

▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer – but did not pursue it

▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and others did not get rich of computers and software

▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston invented VisiCalc – did not make much money

Lessons

Lessons

▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and started Microsoft

▪ Took the opportunity with MITS▪ Focused on software▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but Microsoft

bought similar OS and succeeded▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it

Lessons

▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of computers and then GUIs

▪ GUI were slow to appear▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users▪ Stretched the hardware at the time▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some niche

market in Desktop Publishing and schools

Lessons

▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer▪ First mass market of Operating Systems– The Internet helped▪ Today we have three major Operating Systems– Linux (Unix based)– MacOS (Unix based)– Windows

Q7

What is the future of Personal Computers and Operating Systems?

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

HardwareeraPC,Mac

SoftwareOSeraWindows,Office,MacOS

InternetHardwareConnects

IBMPC Microsoft

Apple

2010

SoftwareweberaWeb2.0,Social

2015

Internetofthings

PC Evolution

Interaction is changing to natural interaction

Computers are changing shape and becoming

invisible

Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…

The Network is the Computer

The Internet cloud

More programs and data is stored on network servers

The Personal Computer becomes one of the form factors to access the network

Examples Amazon API Google Apps Facework Platform API

Machine Learning

Machine Learning

Breakthroughs in computer performance (GPUs), algorithms, cloud computing and big data, has finally created an environment where neural networks - systems that learn have become a reality

The ideas of learning systems came very early but failed to become practical

Fraud detection Web search results Real-time ads on web pages and mobile devices Text-based sentiment analysis Credit scoring and next-best offers Prediction of equipment failures New pricing models Network intrusion detection Pattern and image recognition Email spam filtering

Application

Google has TensorFlow, an Open Source Software Library for Machine Intelligence

Machine Learning Platform

Now platforms are becoming available

Amazon has Amazon Machine Learning

Microsoft is providing machine learning as part of Cortana Analytics Suite

Human intelligence

Artificial intelligence We are here

Inte

lligen

ce

Time

Machine Intelligence

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L15 Augmented and Virtual Reality