la géopolitique des nouvelles sources d’énergie
TRANSCRIPT
1
La géopolitique des nouvelles sources d’énergie
FFUE Bruxelles, 23 Avril 2018
Samuele Furfari
Je m'exprime à titre personnel
Toutes les données sont publiques
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Le gaz naturel …une nouvelles sources d’énergie
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Demande d'énergie primaire
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
2000 2015 2016 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mto
e
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other renewables
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
2000 2016 2025 2035
Coal Oil Gas
Nuclear Hydro Biomass/Waste
Other Renewables
FF= 77% FF= 75%
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0
20
40
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100
Sep 2002Jun 2003Apr 2004Feb 20050
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60
80
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Jan 1990 Jun 1990 Nov 1990
Data of US EIA
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120
Jun 2014 Apr 2015 Feb 2016 Dec 2016 Oct 2017
$/b
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1974 +40 = la quarantaine est terminée…
De plus en plus
de pétrole
De plus en plus de gaz
Gaz de roche mère
Pétrole de
roche mère
UNCLOS
Technologie
La nouvelle Europe
http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7292/10134658063_fca4fc3da2_o.jpg Samuele Furfari
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The Levantine Sea surprise
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Norway
Israel
Zohr
Aphrodite
Tm³
Connection of Aphrodite field to Vassilikos
Samuele Furfari
https://ec.europa.eu/inea/en/connecting-europe-facility/cef-energy/projects-by-country/multi-country/7.3.1-0025-elcy-s-m-15
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Hier en Egypte
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ENI investi dans le gaz algérien
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10
0
0.5
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1.5
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2.5
Norway Rovuma (M)
Tm
³
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Pool of banks
1. Abn Amro
2. BNP Parisbas
3. Credit Agricole
4. HSBC
5. Sumitomo-Mitsui
6. Korea Development Bank
7. Millennium BCP
8. Natixis
9. Société Générale
10. Standard Bank
11. UniBanca
12. Unicredit
13. Bank of China
14. China Development
15. ICBC
San Donato Milanese (Milan), 13 December 2017 – Eni has completed today the sale of a 25 percent indirect interest in the natural gas-rich Area 4 of the Rovuma Basin to ExxonMobil Development Africa B.V. (“ExxonMobil”). The terms of the sale, agreed in March 2017, include a payment of $2.8 billion subject to a contractual adjustment until the date of closing. Eni East Africa, to be renamed Mozambique Rovuma Venture, which owns 70 percent of the Area 4 concession, is now co-owned by Eni (35.7 percent), ExxonMobil (35.7 percent) and CNPC (28.6 percent). The remaining interests in Area 4 are held by Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos E.P. (ENH, 10 percent), Kogas (10 percent) and Galp Energia (10 percent).
One Planet Summit Paris, 12 December 2017
4 export credits agencies
1. KEXIM (Export Import
Bank of Korea)
2. Korea Trade Insurance
Corporation
3. SACE - Italian Export
Credit Agency
4. SINOSUREChina Export
& Credit Insurance
Corporation
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0
20
40
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Tm
³
Natural gas reserves
72
188
+5%/y
7
13/
-
100
200
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2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014
b/d
.rig
Oil rig productivity
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus
Niobrara permian Utica
-
50
100
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2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014
Mm
³/d
.rig
Gas rig productivity
Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus
Niobrara permian Utica
Vol 1 Fig 7-3
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Shale oil wellhead breakeven cost
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50
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90
2014 2015 2016
$/b
Permian Midlant Permian Delaware Niobrara
Eagle Ford BakkenSource: http://www.rystadenergy.com/NewsEvents/PressReleases/shale-well-breakeven
50$/b-35$/b= 15$/b 15$/b x 6 Mb/j = 90 M$/j ou 33 milliards $/a
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15/ Source Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-oil-shale-
insight/why-canada-is-the-next-frontier-for-shale-oil-idUSKBN1FI0G7
Seven Generations Energy's Kakwa River Project in northwest Alberta, REUTERS
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Poland’s PGNiG inks 5-year deal with Centrica to buy US LNG
Poland’s state-owned gas company PGNiG has signed a five-year contract with British utility Centrica to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) sourced from Cheniere’s Sabine Pass liquefaction plant in the US. The LNG will be delivered on a DES (delivered ex-ship) basis and the supplies will start in 2018.
Posted on November 22, 2017
U.S.A. Qatar Russ
ie
Shale gas producers
Chenière Centrica PGNiG Polish
consumers
Technology
Gas market Geopolitics
Gas market
Technology
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
€/M
Wh
Gas price in Lithuania
Klaipeda
LNG terminal
GIPL
Baltic-connector
to Finland ESTONIA
LATVIA
BELARUS
UKRAINE
POLAND
LITHUANIA
Incukalns
gas storage
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US natural gas exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
90
100
2012201320142015201620172018
Gm
³
Total US export
US LNG export
Data : https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_expc_s1_a.htm
Mainly
Mexico
18% 17%
13%
7% 36%
9%
US LNG export - 2017
Mexico South Korea ChinaJapan RoW SpainPortugal Lithuania ItalyPoland United Kingdom NetherlandsMalta
14 others
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Caspian Sea
USA/ Canada
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/infrastructure/transparency_platform/map-viewer/main.html
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Russia LNG from Yamal First cargo loading is scheduled on 8 December 2017, at the Sabetta
port
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SMALL SCALE LNG
The liquid state is the easiest of the 3 states of matter
valorise the liquid state of LNG as a new
alternative fuel
• ships and trucks
• industries, SME & services in areas that are not connected to the gas network
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25 Source: Directorate-General for Energy Samuele Furfari
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26 Source: Directorate-General for Energy Samuele Furfari
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IMO : Maritime CO2 plans Shipping: 2.2% of CO2 emissions = Germany
• 50 % by 2050 compared with 2008 levels
• EU asked 70 to 100% • A final IMO plan is not
expected until 2023 • the initial strategy would
not be legally binding for member states
• Revision in 2028
Maritime and aviation are not subject to 2015 Paris Agreement
Method: Fuel efficiency LNG
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28 Source: Directorate-General for Energy
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