Labor Market InformationFinding & Using Online Employment Tools

November 5, 2015

Tim O’NeillRegional Analysis & Outreach Unit

Minnesota Dept. of Employment & Economic DevelopmentLabor Market Information Office

http://mn.gov/deed/data/

Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development

Labor Market Information Office

• Each state produces employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics

• LMI includes employment statistics, unemployment rates, wages and salaries, job projections and more

• LMI is the foundation for informed, market-responsive planning

How is the Job Market Doing?

National Numbers - September

• Employment growth slows– US adds 142,000 jobs in September*– Growth lead by health care & social assistance,

information, and professional & business services– Mining continues to lose jobs

• Unemployment steady at 5.1%• Labor force participation rate at 62.4%• Avg. hourly earnings at $25.09

*Job growth averaged 260,000/month in 2014, and 198,000/month in 2015 (through Aug.)

Minnesota Numbers - September

• Employment growth slows–MN sheds 5,700 jobs in September –35,250 jobs over-the-year (1.2% growth)

• Unemployment edges down to 3.8%• Labor force participation rate at 69.7%• Avg. hourly earnings at $25.94• Happy Anniversary!*

*MN has gained 235,200 jobs since the low of the Great Recession, in Sept. 2009. This averages out to 39,200 jobs gained per year, or 3,300 jobs gained per month. Average annual growth rate at 1.4%.

Labor Force Declining

Jan-76

Jun-77

Nov-78

Apr-80

Sep-81

Feb-83

Jul-84

Dec-85

May-87

Oct-88

Mar-90

Aug-91Jan

-93Jun-94

Nov-95

Apr-97

Sep-98

Feb-00

Jul-01

Dec-02

May-04

Oct-05

Mar-07

Aug-08Jan

-10Jun-11

Nov-12

Apr-14

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

Minnesota U.S.

Peaked at 75.4% in 2000

Baby Boomers leaving the workforce

Regional Unemployment Rates

County September 2015 Unemployment Rate

Anoka 3.3%

Carver 2.8%

Dakota 3.0%

Hennepin 3.1%

Ramsey 3.3%

Scott 2.8%

Washington 2.9%

Metro Area 3.1%

Minnesota 3.2%

Not Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Up-Close

Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Up-Close

Source: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Local Area Unemployment Stats (LAUS)

• Description: Monthly estimates of labor force, employment and unemployment for state and local areas.

• Data source: LAUS is a federal-state cooperative program between the BLS and state agencies. Models use both current and historical data from the CPS, the CES program and the UI statistics program to provide estimates of employment and unemployment.

• What it provides: Helps state and local governments make planning and budgetary decision; determines needs for employment and training services.

• Data limitations: Not available for small cities, and data are revised monthly and benchmarked annually.http://mn.gov/deed/laus

More on Unemployment

• Employment Situation Report– www.bls.gov

• Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment– http://www.bls.gov/opub/gp/laugp.htm

• Disability Statistics, Cornell University– www.disabilitystatistics.org

• DEED: Alternative Measures of Unemployment– http://mn.gov/deed/data/current-econ-highlights

• American Community Survey– http://factfinder.census.gov

Industry Trends

Minnesota Over-the-Year

Government

Construction

Other Services

Logging & Mining

Information

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Trade, Trans. & Utilities

Leisure & Hospitality

Prof. & Business Services

Ed. & Health Services

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

-3,709

-2,170

-1,615

-429

-357

146

3,744

5,312

9,714

11,109

13,497

Data are September 2014 to September 2015

Healthcare & Social Assistance2000 – 2015

Jan-00

Oct-00

Jul-01

Apr-02Jan

-03

Oct-03

Jul-04

Apr-05Jan

-06

Oct-06

Jul-07

Apr-08Jan

-09

Oct-09

Jul-10

Apr-11Jan

-12

Oct-12

Jul-13

Apr-14Jan

-15200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2,550,000

2,600,000

2,650,000

2,700,000

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

2,900,000

Heal

thca

re &

Soc

ial A

ssist

ant

Total, All Industries

Healthcare’s Largest-Growing Jobs2012 – 2022

• Home Health Aides: 29.3% (10,131)• Registered Nurses: 16.9% (9,477)• LPNs: 18.6% (3,239)• Nursing Assistants: 9.1% (2,742)• Medical Assistants: 19.7% (1,693)• Pharmacy Technicians: 13.8% (945)• Radiologic Technologists: 20.7% (796)• Physical Therapists: 22.6% (779)• Medical & Clinical Laboratory Technicians: 23.4% (767)• Nurse Practitioners: 26.1% (721)

Source: DEED Employment Outlook

Construction2000 – 2015

Jan-00

Oct-00

Jul-01

Apr-02Jan

-03

Oct-03

Jul-04

Apr-05Jan

-06

Oct-06

Jul-07

Apr-08Jan

-09

Oct-09

Jul-10

Apr-11Jan

-12

Oct-12

Jul-13

Apr-14Jan

-1580,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

2,550,000

2,600,000

2,650,000

2,700,000

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

2,900,000

Cons

truc

tion

Total, All Industries

Construction’s Largest-Growing Jobs2012 – 2022

• Carpenters: 22.9% (4,491)• Construction Laborers: 16.8% (1,862)• Electricians: 16.0% (1,740)• Plumbers & Pipefitters: 19.1% (1,520)• Operating Engineers: 16.9% (1,408)• Supervisors of Construction Workers: 17.7% (1,286)• Painters, Construction & Maintenance: 18.0% (1,194)• Cement Masons & Concrete Finishers: 30.7% (900)• Brickmasons & Blockmasons: 31.9% (437)• Sheet Metal Workers: 14.3% (345)

Source: DEED Employment Outlook

Where do I find this cool info? CES!(Current Employment Statistics)

• Description: Monthly survey of nonfarm businesses for estimating industry employment, hours and earnings for the 50 states and 250 Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

• Data source: The CES program is a federal-state cooperative program between the BLS and state agencies. This program is the largest survey of its kind, consisting of of 400,000 businesses nationwide and 5,900 businesses in Minnesota.

• What it provides: A look at the health of the economy through industry employment numbers, earnings trends and other data.

• Data limitations: Not available for small, local areas, and data are revised monthly and benchmarked annually.http://mn.gov/deed/CES

And for local areas? QCEW!(Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages)

• Description: Quarterly census of employers for compiling employment and wage statistics. Data are available by industry, ownership type, states, regions, counties and minor civil divisions.

• Data Source: All establishments covered under the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program are required to report wage and employment statistics.

• What it provides: Industry employment and wage information at the state, regional, county and minor civil division levels. These data are used for state revenue forecasting, employment density studies, and economic planning and development.

• Data limitations: Six month time lag and some data confidentiality.http://mn.gov/deed/qcew

Job Vacancy Survey

• Description: A semi-annual survey of employers to estimate hiring demand and job vacancy characteristics by industry and occupation.

• Data Source: Information is gathered through the survey of a stratified sample of about 10,000 firms in 13 regions of Minnesota. Firms excluded include private households, personnel service industry establishments and businesses with no employees.

• What it provides: A measure of hiring demand for workers and an analysis of the characteristics of job vacancies, including wages and benefits, education and experience requirements, and the location of openings.

• Data limitations: Point-in-time survey.

http://mn.gov/deed/jvs

MN Job Openings Expanding

Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey (JVS)

Q4, 2001

Q2, 2002

Q4, 2002

Q2, 2003

Q4, 2003

Q2, 2004

Q4, 2004

Q2, 2005

Q4, 2005

Q2, 2006

Q4, 2006

Q2, 2007

Q4, 2007

Q2, 2008

Q4, 2008

Q2, 2009

Q4, 2009

Q2, 2010

Q4, 2010

Q2, 2011

Q4, 2011

Q2, 2012

Q4, 2012

Q2, 2013

Q4, 2013

Q2, 2014

Q4, 2014

Q2, 2015

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000Vacancies

Unemployment

MN Vacancy Distribution

Food Prep & Serving, 14%

Sales, 12%

Office & Admin Support, 9%

Personal Care & Service, 7%

Healthcare Practitioners, 7%Trans. & Material Moving, 7%

Production, 5%

Education, 5%

Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maint., 5%

Healthcare Support, 4%

Computer & Mathemat-ical, 4%

Installation, Maint., & Repair, 4%

All Other Vacancies, 17%

MN Vacancy Characteristics

MN Employment Outlook

• With the labor market fully recovered from the recent recession, current projections show a more balanced outlook through 2022

• Job growth over the next decade will average 0.7% a year, a slower pace than previous projections– National projections at 1.0% a year

• The key macroeconomic assumptions driving the 2012-2022 national industry projections are:– Demographic changes drive demand for healthcare & related services– Labor force growth will slow below 0.5% annually

(baby-boomers leaving)– GDP projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.6%– Economy will reach full-employment by 2022

MN Industry Outlook2012 – 2022

Information

Utilities

Mining

Management of Companies

Arts & Entertainment

Educational Services

Finance & Insurance

Retail Trade

Prof. & Technical Services

Health Care & Social Assistance

-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

-4,126-4,077

-1,0794525186372,164

4,0474,2434,9985,1486,101

8,73710,31810,820

16,96618,905

23,68593,796

MN Occupational Outlook2012 – 2022

Legal OccupationsFarming, Fishing, and Forestry

Life, Physical, and Social ScienceArts, Entertainment, Sports, and Media

Architecture and EngineeringProtective Service

Community and Social ServiceComputer and Mathematical

Building and Grounds CleaningInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair

Construction and ExtractionHealthcare Support

Education, Training, and LibraryBusiness and Financial Operations

Transportation and Material MovingProduction

ManagementPersonal Care and Service

Healthcare Practitioners and TechnicalFood Preparation and Serving

Sales and RelatedOffice and Administrative Support

-20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

New HiresReplacement Hires

MN Educational Outlook2012 – 2022

2012

Estimated Employment

2022 Projected Employment

2012-2022 Projected Change

Percent Numeric Replacement Total

Less than H.S. diploma 747,800 813,609 8.8% 65,809 222,270 292,970

H.S. diploma or equivalent

1,117,335 1,174,064 5.1% 56,729 236,080 307,890

Some college, no degree

47,327 49,850 5.3% 2,523 10,020 12,540

Postsecondary non-degree award

171,689 187,186 9.0% 15,497 33,930 49,830

Associate’s degree 121,079 136,799 13.0% 15,720 24,520 40,780

Bachelor’s degree 518,637 552,505 6.5% 33,868 109,230 144,620

Master’s degree 45,212 50,570 11.9% 5,358 9,730 15,080

Doctoral degree 63,883 69,363 8.6% 5,480 12,950 18,390

Other, not identified 82,439 86,454 4.9% 4,015 14,790 19,520

Total, all occupations 2,915,401 3,120,400 7.0% 204,999 673,520 901,620

Job Seeking Resources

Career Profile

• Offers a wide range of occupational information:– Wage information, including cost-of-living comparison– Current demand– Future openings and growth rate– Educational requirements, certifications, licenses– On the job tasks, working conditions, and abilities

• Links to MinnesotaWorks.net and WFC help

mn.gov/deed/careers

Career Profile

• Useful for job seekers, career explorers, and employers

• Breakdown by region• Data collected from

numerous DEED LMI sources, as well as the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

Occupational Employment Stats

Geography Employment 25th Percentile Wage Median Wage 75th Percentile Wage

Metro Area 1,691,650 $13.02 $20.49 $32.76

Minnesota 2,730,020 $12.12 $18.65 $29.27

U.S. 135,128,260 $11.25 $17.42 $28.28

Top-Employing Occupational Groups Employment Median Wage

Office & Admin. Support 263,440 $18.25

Sales and Related 172,730 $14.93

Food Prep. & Serving Related 133,660 $9.28

Business & Financial Operations 124,780 $31.78

Management 118,720 $51.80

Production 116,450 $17.19

Transp. & Material Moving 93,740 $16.64

Healthcare Practitioners 88,570 $34.08

According to DEED’s Cost of Living Calculator, the basic-needs budget for a typical family in the Metro is:• $55,896/year• This equates to an hourly

wage of $17.92 for each adult worker*

*The typical family includes 1 full-time and 1-part-time worker, with 1 child.

Cost of Living Calculator

• Basic needs budget for individuals and families living in Minnesota.

• One full-time worker: 2,080 hours• The majority of households – 65% -

are family households. 79% of family households have two parents, and the average number of hours worked/week is 33.9.

• Can be broken down by child care, food, healthcare, housing, transportation, other necessities, and taxes.

mn.gov/deed/col

And for more on hiring demand? OID!(Occupations in Demand)

• Lists of currently available career opportunities in a local labor market as determined by local labor market data.

• Regional occupations are ranked by a Current Demand Indicator, which measures short-term demand for jobs.

• Data updated twice a year.

http://mn.gov/deed/oid

Jobs in demand for the metro

High School Diploma or less Postsecondary Award or Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree or higher

Customer Service Representatives ($37,261) Registered Nurses ($76,732) Software Developers,

Applications ($91,972)

General Office Clerks ($33,680) LPNs ($44,964) Computer Systems Analysts

($87,725)

Social & Human Service Assistants ($31,289)

Heavy & Tractor Trailer Truck Drivers ($44,979)

Market Research Analysts ($66,384)

Real Estate Sales Agents ($38,097) Nursing Assistants ($30,069) Accountants and Auditors

($65,640)

Secretaries and Admin. Assistants ($40,126) Web Developers ($66,410) Occupational Therapists

($71,236)

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers ($44,190)

Computer Network Support Specialists ($62,652)

Management Analysts ($77,491)

298 Metro Area jobs are in relatively high demand – mn.gov/deed/oid

Keeping Skills in Mind - JobSTAT

• Help job seekers explore occupations that are a good match to their previous work experience.

• JobSTAT identifies where gaps exist, offers a career profile, training information, and provides links to job postings on MinnesotaWorks. http://mn.gov/deed/jobstat

Keeping Skills in MindMySkillsMyFuture

www.MySkillsMyFuture.org

Graduate Employment Outcomes

Who will use the tool?

• Prospective students, to set realistic expectations for employment and wages following graduation

• Parents and career counselors, to help prospective students plan their education

• Education program planners interested in aligning program offerings to market demand

• Policy makers interested in evaluating the state’s returns on investments in higher education

Five Key Aspects of Employment

1. EMPLOYABILITY (in-state employment rate)

2. FULLTIME AND YEAR-ROUND STATUS (job quality and job stability)

3. EARNINGS4. TOP INDUSTRIES OF EMPLOYMENT5. TOP REGIONS OF EMPLOYMENT

A GEO Analysis…

Instructional Program Bachelors Degree Award

Number of Bachelor Degree

Graduates

Annual Median Earnings of All

Employed Graduates in 2nd year after

graduation

Percent working full-

time and year-round in 2nd Year

Median Earnings of

Full-time Employed in

2nd Year

Well Align

ed

Engineering 1,217 $55,489 69% $59,124

Construction trades 25 $53,675 76% $55,472

Computer and information science 647 $51,990 68% $56,277

Health profession 2,577 $50,021 40% $59,646

Engineering technologies 165 $47,688 68% $51,960

Business, management, and marketing 6,272 $38,667 64% $45,289

Poorly

Aligned

Visual and performing arts 1,562 $17,833 29% $31,039

Transportation and materials moving 51 $17,731 35% $26,447

Communications technologies/technician 21 $17,629 N/A* N/A*Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies 168 $17,540 28% $30,300

History 443 $16,513 29% $34,154

Theology and religious vocations 337 $15,741 30% $33,185

A Step Further…

Professional & Technical Services

Information

Manufacturing

Finance & Insurance

Wholesale Trade

Retail Trade

Accommodation & Food Service

Professional & Technical Services

Educational Services

Health Care & Social Assistance

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Visual and performing arts

Computer and information science

What does this info tell us?

• If wage and employment rates are the outcome of interaction between supply and demand, they tell us a great deal about which fields of study are in demand and which are not

• Providing these data to young people selecting a major, and to incumbent workers looking to change careers, would allow them to better self-select into areas with better opportunities

• Data for all fields of study are on our website at: http://mn.gov/deed/geo

Other Economic & CareerExploration Resources

Other LMI Sites…

– U.S. Data -U.S. Census: www.census.gov-Bureau of Labor Statistics: www.bls.gov

– Minnesota Data -MN State Demographic Center: http://mn.gov/admin/demography/-Minnesota Compass: www.mncompass.org

– Twin Cities-Metropolitan Council: http://metrocouncil.org/ -Greater MSP: www.greatermsp.org

U.S. Census Bureau

• U.S. Census Bureau’s FactFinder– Includes American Community Survey (ACS) data– Narrative Profiles: Reports for selected areas

• Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)• OnTheMap tool: commute and labor sheds• Census Flows Mapper• County Business Patterns (CBP)

An Example of U.S. Census DataHennepin County 2013 - 2014

• Population 16+ increased by 13,141 (1.4%)– 65-74 year age group the fastest-growing (6.5%)– Black/African Americans increased by 6.9%

• Asian population increased by 5.2%• White & Hispanic/Latino populations increased by 1.0%

– Those obtaining post-secondary education increased• Some college or associate’s degree (+4,319; 2.3%)• Bachelor’s degree or higher (+7,627; 2.3%)

• Unemployment decreased by 1.1 percentage points (went down esp. fast for teenagers)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

Specialty Career Sites

• MyMnCareers, www.MyMnCareers.org – Helps working learners take the steps needed to pursue

and advance in a career pathway.

• STEP AHEAD, www.ISEEK.org/exoffender– Helps job seekers with felony convictions and other

criminal charges be successful in their job search.

• MnCareerPathways, www.MnCareerPathways.org – Helps Minnesota adult students create career and training

plans that will prepare them for a fulfilling career.

LMI Publications

Minnesota Economic Trends Quarterly magazine on economic topics Subscriptions available free of charge or on-line

Minnesota Employment Review Monthly magazine on economic data and regional trends Includes Minnesota business development Available exclusively on-line

http://mn.gov/deed/trends

http://mn.gov/deed/review

LMI Helpline

• LMI experts are available to answer your questions weekdays from 9 AM to 3 PM

• Telephone 651-259-7384 , or toll free at 888-234-1114

• Send questions by e-mail to deed.lmi@state.mn.us

Let me know how I can help

Tim O’NeillTwin Cities Labor Market Analyst

Phone: (651) 259-7401 Timothy.oneill@state.mn.us

Department of Employment and Economic Development

http://www.mn.gov/deed