labour market forecasts and methodology...occupational forecasts (short term) the short term...
TRANSCRIPT
Arbetsförmedlingen –
labour market forecasts and
methodology
Anders Ljungberg Head of unit
Ljubljana, 2019-11-28
Arbetsförmedlingen – forecasts and
methodology
● National labour market outlook
● Regional labour market outlooks
● Occupational forecasts
o Short term (1 year ahead)
• National, regional and local forecasts
o Long term (5 year ahead)
• National forecasts
Arbetsförmedlingen – forecasts and
methodology
● Interviews with employers
o The basis for our labour market
forecasts
o A random selection of workplaces in
the private sector
o Interviews with all local municipalities
and county councils and with a
selection of state employers
o 13 000 interviews
o High response rates
o Twice a year
● Our forecasts have many purposes and target groups
o Our own organization
o Many different external users
o Media
Arbetsförmedlingen – forecasts
and methodology
● Interview questions include:
o Demand for goods and services
o Capacity utilization
o Number of employees
o Recruitment needs
o Shortage occupations
o Consequences of possible labour
shortages
Arbetsförmedlingen – forecasts and
methodology
● The employer survey is conducted by employment officers throughout the country
● Interview results are supplemented with statistics and materials from other sources, such as:
o Economic indicators
o Industry specific indicators
o Statistical trends (LFS and PES data)
● The Department of Analysis evaluates the results and forecasts:
o Employment in different regions and in
different industries.
o Unemployment in different regions and
for different groups.
● Which challenges arise and which actions are needed to counteract the challenges?
Still a strong labour market in Sweden
● The Swedish labour market is still strong
o Employment is expected to increase by 120 000 in 2019-2020
● Most new jobs go to foreign born
o Two out of three new jobs go to a foreign-born individuals
● Labour shortages among private employers and in the public sector
Occupational forecasts
- Job opportunities for 200 occupations
Occupational forecasts (short term)
● The short term forecasts involve the whole PES organization
● Employment officers make assessments for occupations on the local labour market
● They do so…
o by conducting interviews with 13 000 workplaces (private and public)
o by gathering information from their daily work
● They make assessments of the labour shortage by occupation on a scale between 1 to 5
● All local assessments are weighted according to the number of employees on the local labour market creating a nationwide labour shortage index
● The labour shortage index is estimated at a national, regional and local level
Occupational forecasts (long term)
● Model based national forecasts
● The starting point of the projections are the short term forecasts
● We use variables such as:
- unemployment per occupation
- vacancies per occupation
- number of employed per occupation
- demographic changes
● Both the short and long term forecasts are conducted for 200 occupations
Occupational forecasts – two different formats
● Occupational compass
o Job opportunities for almost 200
occupations
o Short and long term
● Where are the jobs?
o The change in employment for
different sectors
o Job opportunities for different
occupations
o Highlights challenges
● Basis for choice and guidance
o Career choices
o What to study
● Also important for other types of analysis
Where are the jobs? Results from spring 2019
Occupational therapist Teachers
Midvvives Software and system developers
Biomedical analyst Police officers
Civil engineers Psychologists
After-school teacher Nursing professionals
Physioterapists Special needs teachers and eduction methods specialists
Preschool teacher System analysts and it-architects
Nurses, basic training System testers and test leaders
Engineers anf technicians Dentists
Doctors Dental hygienist/technician and orthopeadic engineer/technician
Occupations at university level where there is the greatest shortage of labour (least competition for jobs) in 2020
Bank clerks Photografers
Administrative and executive secretaries Communicators and pr specialists
Real estate agents Journalists
Financial analysts and investment advisors Musicians, singers and composers
Occuptations at university level where there is the greatest surplus of labour (hardest competition for jobs) in 2020
Drivers of construction machinery Metal working machine tool setters and operators
Concrete placers Medical secretaries and health administrators
Bus, tram and HGV (truck) drivers Motor vehicle mechanics and vehicle repairers
Construction ventilation sheet metal worker Bricklayers
Electricians Butcher / meat cutter
Floor layers Welders and flame cutters
Waiters Sheet metal workers
Chefs Maintenance mechanics and machine repairers
Cooling and heat pump technicians Assistant nurses
Locomotive engine drivers Plumbers
Occupations in other education levels where there is the greatest shortage of labour (least competition for jobs) in 2020
Gas station staff Office assistants and secretaries
Salesmen Office receptionists
Economic assitants Market and sales assistants
Hand packers Travel agent and passanger assistant
Purchasing and order assistants Telephonists
Cashiers Janitors
Occupations in other education levels where there is the greatest surplus of labour (hardest competition for jobs) in 2020
1 2 3 4 5
Culture, media and design
Sales, purchase and marketing
Administration, economy and law
Service and security work
Social work
Agriculture
Industrial production
Transports
Hotels, restaurants and canteen
Installation and maintenance
Healthcare
Construction
Technical and natural scientific work
Pedagogical work
Computing/IT
Shortage index
Average labour shortage index (one year term) per occupational area
Index within the green lines = market in balance
Source: Swedish Public Emloyment Service, spring 2019
1 2 3 4 5
Culture, media and design
Sales, purchase and marketing
Administration, economy and law
Service and security work
Transports
Industrial production
Hotels, restaurants and canteen
Agriculture
Social work
Installation and maintenance
Technical and natural scientific work
Computing/IT
Construction
Healthcare
Pedagogical work
Shortage index
Average labour shortage index (five year term) per occupationel area
Index within the green lines = market in balance
Source: Swedish Public Employment Service, autumn 2018
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Agriculture
Administration, economy and law
Service and security work
Hotels, restaurants and canteen
Technical and natural scientific work
Industrial production
Sales, purchase and marketing
Installation and maintenance
Transports
Construction
Computing/IT
Social work
Pedagogical work
Healthcare
Shortage of educated workers within five yearsper occupational area
Source: Swedish Public Emloyment Service, autumn 2018
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