1726MStreet,NW|Suite1100|Washington,DC20036|T202.776.9066|F202.776.9074

WASHINGTON,DC|BERKELEY,CA|NEWYORK,NY|LOSANGELES,CA|RICHMOND,VA

www.lakeresearch.com

To: InterestedParties

From: JoshuaUlibarri,Partner

Re: LatinoAttitudesonElectedLeadersandReachingtheAmericanDream

Date: November2011

ArecentLakeResearchPartners(LRP)pollshowsthatregisteredLatinovotersareequallyfrustratedwithbothDemocratsandRepublicansinCongress,andfeelitisharderthanever

toreachtheAmericandream.ThesurveywasconductedinbothSpanishandEnglishamong600Latinosinthe25states

withthehighestLatino‐populationdensity.Athirdofthesurveyincluded200Latinoswhowerereachedviacellularphone.

PresidentObamaandCongressionalDemocratsandRepublicansareupside‐downwhenitcomestotheirjobperformanceandwhilethePresidentfaresbetterthanCongress,hiscurrentnumbersamongLatinosarenotwhattheyneedtobeiftheyaretobeabasevote

protectingagainstasurgingRepublicanvoteamongworkingclassandseniorwhitevoters.“Latinosareincreasinglyfrustratedwithbothparties.Theirfrustrationandconcernover

reachingtheAmericanDreamputsbothpartiesonwatch,”saidpollsterJoshuaUlibarriofLakeResearchPartners.“LatinovotersmaynotbetheaceintheholethatDemocratsneed

themtobenextNovember,ifthingsstaythesame,anditisclearDemocratswillhavetoworkhardtobringthemintotheircorner.Still,DemocratsareinamuchstrongerpositionwithLatinovotersthanRepublicansasthreeinfourvotersrateCongressionalRepublicans

negatively.”KeyFindings:

SevenintenregisteredLatinovoters(72%)sayitisbecominghardertoreachtheAmericanDreamandonly8%sayitisbecomingeasier.

AmongregisteredLatinovoters,Democratsleadagenericcongressionalballotwith

50%to24%forRepublicans.AquarterofLatinosremainundecided.

CelindaLakePresident AlysiaSnellPartner MichaelPerryPartner DavidMerminPartner RobertG.Meadow,Ph.D.Partner DanielR.GotoffPartner JoshuaE.UlibarriPartner TresaUndemPartner RickA.JohnsonManaging Director RobertX.HillmanChief Financial Officer 

LakeResearchPartners–LatinosIssues–November,2011 Page2

Lake Research Partners

Threeinfour(76%)registeredLatinovotersrateCongressionalRepublicansnegativelyincluding38%whoratethemasdoingapoorjob.

Morethanhalf(55%)ofregisteredLatinovotersratePresidentObama’sjobperformanceasjustfair(33%)orpoor(22%).Fourinten(43%)ratehisperformanceasgood(25%)orexcellent(18%).

LikemostAmericans,economicconcernsweighheavilyuponLatinos,withconcernovertherisingcostsof

everydayneedslikegasandgroceriescarryingthemostweight.Latinosarealsoconcernedwithlosingtheirjobandnotbeingabletomakeendsmeet,inadditiontohousing,healthcare,andeducationcosts.

AccordingtoCNNexitpollsin2008,PresidentObamareceived67%oftheLatinovoteto31%forSenatorMcCain.Inthe2010congressionalelections,CNNexitpollsshow60%ofLatinovoterssupportedDemocratswhile38%backedRepublicans.

LakeResearchPartnersdesignedthistelephonesurvey.Thesurveywasconductedinthe25stateswiththehighestLatino‐populationdensity.ThesestatesareCA,TX,FL,NY,IL,AZ,NJ,NM,CO,GA,NV,NC,WA,MA,VA,

PA,CT,MI,OR,MD,IN,OH,MN,OKandWI.Thesestatescover95%ofthecountry’svoting‐eligibleLatinopopulation.ThesurveywasconductedinbothSpanishandEnglishamong600Latinos,including200Latinoswhowerereachedviacellularphone.InterviewingwasconductedSeptember26‐October5,2011.Thedatahasa

marginoferrorof+/‐3.7percentagepoints.Formoreinformationaboutthispoll,pleasecontactJoshuaUlibarri(202‐776‐9066)atLakeResearchPartners.

AttitudesTowardElectedLeadersLatinoshaveacriticaleyewhenitcomestoevaluatingtheirelectedleaders’jobperformance.PresidentObamaandCongressionalDemocratsandRepublicansareupside‐downwhenitcomestotheirperformance.While

ObamafaresbetterthanCongress,hiscurrentnumbersamongLatinosarenotwhattheyneedtobeiftheyaretobeabasevoteprotectingagainstasurgingRepublicanvotewithworkingclassandseniorwhites.

Morethanhalf(55%)ofregisteredLatinovotersratethePresident’sjobperformanceasjustfair(33%)orpoor(22%).Fourinten(43%)ratehisperformanceasgood(25%)orexcellent(18%).ThePresidentfaresslightly

betteramongwomen(45%excellent/goodcomparedto53%justfair/poor)thanmen(41%/57%),butisstillnet‐negativeineithercase.Infact,theonlygroupsofvoterswhoratehisjobperformancepositively(orevenly)includeDemocrats,olderwomen,votersage30‐39,registeredvotesintheMid‐Atlantic,andLatinoswho

immigratedtotheUnitedStates.Ineveryothercasehisjobperformanceratingsaremorecriticalthanpositive.

• DemocraticLatinosratethePresidentfavorably,butbyonly28points.Comparatively,independentsarenetnegativeby43pointsandRepublicansarenetnegativeby75points.

• Regionally,thePresident’sjobsuffersacrosstheboardexceptfortheMid‐Atlanticregion(+5).Inthe

Northeast(‐4),theSouth(‐7)andtheWest(‐19)thePresidentisupsidedown.InCalifornia(‐18)andTexas(‐11)LatinosratethePresidentnegatively;butinthekeyswingstateofFloridaLatinosratehimpositivelyby3points.

• Inthissampleofregisteredvoters,thePresidentdoesslightlybetteramongthemostlikelytovote,wherehisperformanceisratednegativelybutbyjustfourpoints.Amongthosewhoaresomewhatlikely,hisperformanceisverynegative(‐34).

LakeResearchPartners–LatinosIssues–November,2011 Page3

Lake Research Partners

LatinosarefrustratedwiththePresident’sperformance,buttheyhaveturnedagainsttheirleadersinCongress.Inthissample,LatinosgiveDemocratsanidentificationadvantageof32points(50%areDemocrats,18%are

Republicans)butthatadvantagedoesnottranslateintosupportforCongressionalDemocrats’jobperformance.Seveninten(71%)registeredLatinovotersratetheDemocrats’jobperformanceasjustfair(42%)orpoor(29%).Just22%believeDemocratsaredoinganexcellent(7%)orgood(15%)job.DemocratsinCongressareheldin

equallybadregardamongwomen(69%justfairorpoor)andmen(73%justfairorpoor),andinbothcasesthreeintenrateDemocratsasdongapoorjob(29%pooramongbothmenandwomen).

Democratsreceivenegativeperformanceratings,butRepublicansareinworseshapepolitically.Threeinfour(76%)registeredLatinovotersrateCongressionalRepublicansnegatively,including38%whoratethemasdoinga

poorjob.Just17%believeCongressionalRepublicansaredoinganexcellent(4%)orgood(13%)job.ThedifferencebetweenDemocrats,andRepublicans,whilebothdoverypoorly,isinintensity,with29%ofLatinosbelievingDemocratsaredoingapoorjobcomparedto38%whobelieveRepublicansaredoingapoorjob.That

ninepointdifferencehelpsprotectaDemocraticleadintheCongressionalballot.

TheCongressionalBallotDemocratsholdabigleadinthegenericCongressionalballot,buttheirleadissmallerthantheiroveralladvantageinpartyidentification.Asmentionedearlier,50%ofregisteredLatinovotersidentifyasDemocrats,including33%whosaytheyarestrongDemocrats;18%identifyasRepublicans,includingjust9%whoconsider

themselvesstrongRepublicans.Thedifferenceinintensityisstrong,butthat32‐pointadvantageinidentificationdoesnotentirelytranslateintothegenericballotwhereDemocratsleadbyjustby27points.IftheCongressionalelectionswereheldtoday50%ofLatinossaytheywouldvoteforaDemocrat,and24%wouldvoteforthe

Republican(aquarterareundecided).TheDemocraticadvantageinintensityremains,with39%stronglyindicatingtheywouldvoteforaDemocrat,comparedtojust16%whowouldstronglyconsidervotingforaRepublican.Democratsholda28‐pointleadamongwomen(53%to24%)andaleadof25pointsamongmen

(48%comparedto23%).AmongLatinoswhoarenotundecided(74%ofregisteredLatinovoterspickacandidate),Democratsleadwith67%ofthevotecomparedto33%forRepublicans.ThatisclosertothetypicaladvantageDemocratsholdonElectionDay,thechallengeisthe26%ofLatinoswhoareundecidedatthistime,

whomaytiptoRepublicansorwhocouldevenstayhome.ApathyanddisappointmentinhowDemocratsareperforminginCongressisdampeningLatinointensity.

• Democratsleadamongeverydemographicandgeographicgroup.Onlyself‐identifiedLatinoRepublicanspreferRepublicansinthetrialheat.

• AmongLatinosoverage50Democratsleadby23points(theparty‐idadvantageis30points)andtheyleadby30pointsamongyoungerLatinos(party‐idis+35).

• TheDemocraticleadisstrongeramongcollegegraduates(+30)thanamongnon‐graduates(+25).

However,Democratsleadbyonly23pointsamongblue‐collarwomenandjust20pointsamongcollegemen.Athird(33%)ofcollegemenareundecided.

• Democratsleadby32pointsintheNortheast,30pointsintheWest,andby24pointsintheSouth.They

leadby30pointsormoreinCalifornia(+32)andFlorida(+30),thoughtheleadisonly23pointsinTexas.• AmongLatinoswhoareverylikelytovote,Democratsleadbyamorerobust29points,andarecloserto

meetingtheidentificationadvantagegapof35points.

LakeResearchPartners–LatinosIssues–November,2011 Page4

Lake Research Partners

• Undecidedvotersarerepresentedprettyconsistentlywithineachdemographicgroup,however,registeredLatinovotersunderage30,independents,collegemen,anti‐choicevoters,andvotersoutWest

(thoughthisismostlyintheMountainstatesandcomeswithasamplesizecaution)aredisproportionatelyundecidedintheCongressionalvote.

DifficultyReachingTheAmericanDream

OneofthemoreconsistenttruismsinAmericanpoliticsisthatLatinostendtobeamongthemostpositiveand

optimisticvotingblocs,consistentlyoutpacingAnglosandAfricanAmericanson“rightorwrongdirection”questions.However,thattrendisbecominglessandlessarealityastougheconomictimesextend.Infact,itisnogreatsurprisethatLatinosareincreasinglyfrustratedwithleadersofbothpartiesconsideringhowdifficult

LatinosfeelitistoreachtheAmericanDream.Overall,sevenintenLatinos(72%)sayitisbecominghardertoreachtheAmericanDreamandonly8%sayitisbecomingeasier(20%donotknoworsayitisstayingaboutthe

same).

Thisattitude,thatitisbecominghardertoreachtheAmericanDream,isextensivebutabitmoredramaticamongwomen(74%harder)comparedtomen(69%).Infact,youngermenaretheonlygroupwherefewerthanseveninten(67%)believeitisbecominghardertoreachtheAmericanDream.Youngermenarenotanymore

optimistic(6%easiercomparedto8%foreveryone),theyarejustmorelikelytoseethingsstayingaboutthesame(25%),whichisnotagoodtrendconsideringhowlongtheeconomyhassuffered.Typically,registeredvoterswithoutacollegedegreetendtobelessoptimisticbutthatishardlytrueamongLatinoswhere71%ofnon‐

collegegraduatesand74%ofcollegegraduatesagreethatitisbecominghardertoachievetheAmericanDream.Theabovetrendthathadyoungermendisproportionatelysayingthingshavestayedthesameistrueforbluecollarmen(24%stayedthesame).AndwhilebothnativeLatinosbornintheUnitedStates(74%harder)and

thosewhohaveimmigratedhere(67%harder)saythingsareharder,immigrantsaremorelikelytosaythingsareeasier(14%)comparedtothoseLatinosbornintheUnitedStates(just4%).Thedifferenceisnotoverwhelmingconsideringbothgroupsfeelthingsaremovingintherightdirection,butitistellingthatimmigrantsstillfeelatad

moreoptimisticeveninthefaceofdifficulttimes.

Unfortunately,LatinosarenotmoreoptimisticforthenextgenerationofLatinos.Seventy‐onepercentofregisteredLatinovotersbelieveitwillbehardertoachievetheAmericanDreamforthenextgeneration,comparedtojust9%whobelieveitwillbeeasier.Twenty‐percentsayitwillbeaboutthesameasitisnowordo

notknow,whichisreallyanindictmentofcircumstancesconsideringsevenintenthinkitisalready“harder”nowtoachievetheAmericanDream.Thetrendsmentionedaboveholdtruehere,witheverysubgroupshowingasignificantsharethatbelievesachievingtheAmericanDreamwillbeharderforthenextgeneration.

TopEconomicConcernsLatinos,likemanyAmericans,areworriedaboutalotofthingsatthesametime.Whenaskedwhicheconomicconcernworriesthemthemost,24%saidrisingpricesoneverydayneedslikegasandgroceries,acleartoptierworry;everydayitemsisfollowedbyworryoverbeinglaidofforlosingajob(18%)andnotbeingabletomake

endsmeet(15%).Thenexttierincludesissueslikenotbeingabletoaffordtherentormortgage(11%),coveringthefamily’shealthcarecosts(9%),payingforcollegeortrainingforchildrenorthemselves(combined13%),orplanningforretirement(7%).Risingpricesoneverydayneedsisconsistentlythefirstorsecondworryformost

subgroups,buttherearesomedifferences:

LakeResearchPartners–LatinosIssues–November,2011 Page5

Lake Research Partners

• Bothmenandwomenraterisingpricesoneverydayneedsfirst(24%and25%,respectively),andbothmakebeinglaidoffthesecondworry(18%and17%,respectively),butwomenplaceslightlyhigher

priorityonnotmakingendsmeet(17%forwomen,12%formen),whilemenplacemoreemphasisonpayingforcollegefortheirchildren(11%formen,6%forwomen).

• ThiseconomyhashitolderAmericansespeciallyhardandwehavelearnedinotherworkthatolder

Americansareveryfearfuloflosingtheircurrentjobandbeingunabletofindanotheronetoreplacethatincome.ThisconcernisconsistentforolderLatinos.Overall,Latinosoverage50ratepricesoneverydayneedsastheirtopconcern(22%),butbeinglaidofforlosingtheirjobplacesaclosesecond(18%).Infact,

beinglaidoffisthetopconcernforLatinosonthecuspofretirement(ages50‐64),withnearlyaquartermaintainingthatissueastheirtopeconomicconcern.Latinosunderage50aremorelikelytoratepricesoneverydayitemsastheirtopconcern(26%).

• Latinoswithoutacollegedegreehavemanyissuescompetingfortheirconcern,withrisingpricesthetopissue(22%),butthenclusteredcloselybehindisbeinglaidoff(16%),notbeingabletomakeendsmeet(16%),andnotbeingabletoaffordrend(14%),whichisinfactpartofmakingendsmeet.College

educatedLatinosputmoreemphasisonrisingprices(29%),buthealthcarepricesrisehigherforthisgroupthanforLatinosoverall(15%forcollegegraduatescomparedto9%forallLatinos).

• LatinoswhohaveimmigratedtoAmericaplacebeinglaidoffatthetopoftheirconcerns(22%),while

Latinosborninthecountryplacerisingpricesdistinctlyahead(30%).• IntheWest,beinglaidoff(21%)andrisingprices(21%)areinthetoptier.IntheSouth,risingprices

clearlyisthebiggerconcern(32%),whileintheNortheastrisingprices(19%)andbeinglaidoff(19%)are

tied.• California,amust‐havestateforthePresident,reflectstheWestoverallwithbeinglaidoff(22%)and

risingpricesatthetop(21%).InFlorida,Latinossayrisingpricesisbyfarthebiggestconcern(38%),while

Tejanossharethesamepriority(28%risingprices).• ThereislittleseparationbetweenLatinoswhoaremorelikelytovote(24%risingprices)andthosewho

arelesslikelytovote(24%risingprices).