lakeview area – predicted pm 2.5 concentrations from rollback and dispersion modeling results
DESCRIPTION
Lakeview Area – Predicted PM 2.5 Concentrations from Rollback and Dispersion Modeling Results. August 22, 2013. Background. Conduct a rollback analysis and air dispersion modeling Part of a larger picture to identify a source’s contribution to high PM2.5 concentrations - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Lakeview Area – Predicted PM2.5 Concentrations from Rollback and Dispersion Modeling Results
August 22, 2013
Background• Conduct a rollback analysis and
air dispersion modeling• Part of a larger picture to identify a source’s
contribution to high PM2.5 concentrations• Rollback modeling estimates concentrations using
emissions data and a distance weighting factor• Emission Inventory Modeling =
Future estimated concentrations at the monitor and the area around the monitor• Helps us determine whether Lakeview
will meet the standard in 2019
Initial Rollback Modeling Results If everything remains the same,
Lakeview is not anticipated to meet the standard
2011
(Base
Year)
2017
(Inter
im Ye
ar)
2019
(Futu
re Ye
ar)2530354045
PM2.5
Weighted Emissions Inventory Results – Contributing Sources (2019)
Open Burning2%
Other Area Sources0%
Residential Wood Heat-ing-Primary
93%
Fugitive Dust 1%
Nonroad sources0%
Industrial permitted sources
5%
Dispersion Modeling Results of Industrial Source Emissions
Potential Reduction Scenarios1. Remove all uncertified stoves and replace
with certified stoves
2. Remove all uncertified stoves and replace with heat pumps
3. Enhanced public awareness and education
4. Mandatory woodstove curtailment program
Uncertified WoodstovesHow many uncertified woodstoves
are in the Lakeview area (2013)?
◦~154 uncertified devices in UGB
◦~256 uncertified devices in SPZ
◦Includes recent changeouts from Department of Energy/Department of Housing funds administered by SCOEDD
Current Conditions - UGB
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
164 165 165 166 167 167 168 169 169
185 234 262 263 264 264 265 265 265
123123 126 127 127 128 128 128 129
198 145 114 113 111 110 109 108 10785 101 109 110 110 111 111 111 11134 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 3572 52 40 39 38 37 37 36 35108 112 115 117 118 118 119 119 12034 35 35 36 37 39 40 41 41
Lakeview UGB: Forecasted Device Population
Central FurnacePellet Stove (certified)Insert: Non-CertifiedInsert: Certified CatalyticInsert: Certified Non-CatalyticWoodstove: Non-CertifiedWoodstove: Certified CatalyticWoodstove: Certified Non-CatalyticFireplaceD
evic
e Po
pula
tion
Change out all wood stoves for Certified Stoves- UGB
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
164 165 165 166 167 167 168 169 169
185 234 262 288 315 342 369 384 386123
123 126 127 127 127 127 127 127198 145 114 88 62 37 12
0 0
85 101 109 120 131 142 152 153 15434 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 3572 52 40 29 19 8
0 0 0
108 112 115 117 118 118 119 119 12034 35 35 36 37 39 40 41 41
Lakeview UGB: Forecasted Device Population
Central FurnacePellet Stove (certified)Insert: Non-CertifiedInsert: Certified CatalyticInsert: Certified Non-CatalyticWoodstove: Non-CertifiedWoodstove: Certified CatalyticWoodstove: Certified Non-CatalyticFireplaceD
evic
e Po
pula
tion
Change out all wood stoves for Non-wood Alternatives - UGB
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
164 165 165 166 167 167 168 169 169
185 234 262 263 263 264 264 263 265
123123 126 127 127 127 127 127 129
198 145 114 88 62 37 12
0 -3
85 101 109 110 110 110 110 111 111
34 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35
72 52 40 29 19 8
0 -1 -2
108 112 115 117 118 118 119 119 120
34 35 35 36 37 39 40 41 41
Lakeview UGB: Forecasted Device Population
Central FurnacePellet Stove (certified)Insert: Non-CertifiedInsert: Certified CatalyticInsert: Certified Non-CatalyticWoodstove: Non-CertifiedWoodstove: Certified CatalyticWoodstove: Certified Non-CatalyticFireplaceD
evic
e Po
pula
tion
What If Scenarios - ResultsWhat-If Scenarios 2019
(ug/m3)1) Status Quo 36.4
2) Increased Public Awareness /Education 34.6
3) Mandatory Woodstove Curtailment Advisory 26.8
4) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Certified Woodstoves + Public Education 30.4
5) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Heat Pumps + Public Education 25
What If Scenarios - ResultsWhat-If Scenarios 2019
(ug/m3)1) Status Quo 36.4
2) Increased Public Awareness /Education 34.6
3) Mandatory Woodstove Curtailment Advisory 26.8
4) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Certified Woodstoves + Public Education 30.4
5) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Heat Pumps + Public Education 25
Options to considerWhat is the target planning
threshold to meet for PM2.5 concentration? ◦Current standard – 35 ug/m3◦Other value to provide additional
buffer– 30 ug/m3?
Do you want an interim year in the planning horizon (2017)?
Brainstorming Ideas
Additional Slides
Estimated Woodstove Emissions
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
FireplaceCertified WoodstoveNon-certi-fied Wood-stovePellet StoveCentral Furnace
Lbs/
day
Design Day