land use planning in the deh cho territory. agenda 1.what is land use planning? 2.update on dclupc...
TRANSCRIPT
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Land Use Planning in the Deh Cho territory
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Agenda
1. WHAT IS LAND USE PLANNING?
2. UPDATE ON DCLUPC ACTIVITIES & PROGRESS
3. INPUT DATA FOR LAND USE OPTIONS
4. LAND USE OPTIONS + ECONOMIC MODEL
5. CUMULATIVE EFFECTS RESEARCH
6. QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION
7:00 – 9:00 P.M. OPEN HOUSE
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Committee & Staff
• Committee Members– 2 DCFN reps (Tim Lennie and Petr Cizek)– 1 GNWT rep (Bea Lepine)– 1 Federal Government rep (Adrian Boyd) – Chairman selected by the 4 members (Herb
Norwegian)• 5 Staff Members
– Executive Director (Heidi Wiebe)– Office Manager (Sophie Bonnetrouge)– GIS Analyst (Monika Templin)– Land Use Planner (Paul Wilson)– Land Use Planner Trainee (Priscilla A. Canadien)
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What is Land Use Planning?
Potential Land Uses
Decisions (Planning Partners)(Staff & Committee)
Zones (Planning & Management)
• Development Conservation• Forestry - GreenForestry - Green TLUO – Red TLUO – Red• Tourism – Orange Tourism – Orange Wildlife – BlueWildlife – Blue• Oil and Gas – Purple Oil and Gas – Purple Archaeology - BlackArchaeology - Black• Minerals – BrownMinerals – Brown• Agriculture – YellowAgriculture – Yellow
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Land Use Planning in the Deh Cho
• Land Use Planning means determining what types of land use activities should occur and where they should take place
• “The purpose of the plan is to promote the social, cultural and economic well-being of residents and communities in the Deh Cho territory, having regard to the interests of all Canadians.”
• Our planning area extends to the whole Deh Cho territory, excluding municipal areas and Nahanni National Park Reserve
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Plan Area
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Land Use Planning and the Deh Cho Process
• Land Use Planning is only one part of the larger Deh Cho Process of negotiations looking at land, resource management and governance issues– Draft Land Use Plan (2005)– Final Land Use Plan (March 2006)
• Land Use Plan used by three parties to negotiate in the Deh Cho Process
• Complete Deh Cho Process (~ 2008)
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Planning Partners
+ +
Approve Plan
2nd Priority
Businesses, Associations, non- governmental organizations
1st Priority
Residents
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Planning vs. Management
• Our mandate is to plan for future resource development – map potential, identify issues, write final plan to show “what” and “where”
• We are not involved in past or current resource applications – current government structures do that (DCFN, GNWT and Gov of Canada)
• May change with Deh Cho Process – Future Deh Cho Resource Management Authority
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Update on DCLUPC Activities & Progress
Staff Recruitment Round 1 Consultation Feedback
Q & A Report Further Research:
Wildlife Workshop,Dene Nahodhe Workshop
Economic Development Model Completed Reviewing Various Land Use Options
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Resource Potential and Conservation Values
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Wildlife• Traditional Knowledge & Expert Research• Regional Wildlife Workshop - Held: November 2003• 308 species in the Deh Cho territory (3 amphibians, 36 fish, 213
birds and 56 mammals)• Key species include:
– Caribou, Moose, Bison, Fish and Waterfowl for consumption– Trumpeter Swan, Whooping Crane, Peregrine Falcon (Endangered)– Black Bear, Grizzly Bear, Furbearers, Dall’s Sheep, and Mountain Goat (Trapping &
Hunting species)
• Critical wildlife areas include: – Nahanni National Park Reserve – Mackenzie Bison Sanctuary (denning, staging and
calving, etc.)– Edehzhie – Central area between Fort Liard & Wrigley
• Important consideration for Cumulative Effects Management
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Wildlife Potential
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Traditional Use Density
• Important to Traditional Dene Lifestyles
• Information gathered by DCFN
• Consulted over 386 harvesters and mapped information
• Harvest areas, kill sites, sacred sites, berry patches
• DCFN approved publication and use at Kakisa Assembly 2004
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Traditional Use Density
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Archeology, Cabins, Historic Sites & Rare features
• Evidence of past human use• Important small sites i.e. fire rings,
cabins, trails• Buffer required for protection• Development must avoid these areas• Rare Features:
– i.e. Hot Springs and Karst Formations
Conservation Value is determined by distance from these important sites
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Archeology, Rare features, Historic Sites & Cabins
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Conservation Value Map
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Forestry Potential
• Timber stands: – Fort Liard, Nahanni Region, Jean Marie River and the Cameron Hills
• NWT 137,000 km2 Timber Productive Land• Northern Portion of Boreal Forest• 4 Major Tree Species:
– White Spruce, Black Spruce, Trembling Aspen and Balsam Poplar + Jack pine and Lodgepole Pine
• Fringe of Economic Timber Zone• Current < Sustainable Harvest Levels
– Low Prices $ – Access
• Community Use
Commercial Viability
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Forestry Potential
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Sawlog Potential
• RWED Sawlog Utilization Standards – 17.5 cm dbh, 10 cm top, 5.0 m log length
Minimum Attributes
• White Spruce Stands – Class 3 (medium) sites that are 15 m tall and 80 years old.
• Lodgepole or Jack Pine Stands – Class 3 (medium) sites that are 19 m in height.
• Aspen Stands – Medium sites, in the Liard Valley and Cameron Hills only, that are
15m in height (Pers. Comm. RWED-FMD).
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Timber Potential Analysis
• PACTeam Canada - Timber Potential • Inventory (Deh Cho Productive Areas) 1961-1997
– Spatial Forest Management Inventories RWED
– Non-Spatial Forest Management Inventories RWED
– Digital Compilation of Vegetation Types of the Mackenzie Valley Transportation Corridor (Wright et al.2003)
– NWT RWED Vegetation Classification Project
– National Forest Inventory (Productive Forest Inventory)
1 km
1 km
100 km
100 km
Distance to Linear Feature
Species, Size, Access, Fire History
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Inventory Areas – White Spruce
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Inventory Areas - Pine
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Inventory Areas - Aspen
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Linear Features Rating
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Minerals
• Assessed 9 mineral types thought to have the most potential in the region
• The highest potential is in the western tip of the territory, moderate in the west-central portions and low in the remaining areas
• The most significant minerals types are Copper, Lead-Zinc & Tungsten (existing mines)
• The western portion has high to very high potential for Skarn (Lead-Zinc, Gold and Tungsten)
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Minerals
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Oil & Gas
• 20 hydrocarbon plays in the Deh Cho– 9 confirmed– 11 unconfirmed
• 419 hydrocarbon wells drilled, most are wildcat wells (exploratory) but 127 (25%) found hydrocarbons
• Current producing regions are Fort Liard and Cameron Hills; other significant discoveries found but not yet developed
• Greatest potential is in the Liard Plateau and the Great Slave Plain (northern extension of the western sedimentary basin)
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Oil and Gas Potential
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Tourism
• The greatest potential is along the Mackenzie and Liard River valleys and radiates out from communities (the “hub and spoke” effect.)
• Exceptionally scenic, offer various types of tourism experiences and have good access
• Key tourism destinations include Nahanni National Park Reserve, the Ram Plateau and North Nahanni River, Little Doctor Lake, Cli Lake, Trout Lake and some lodges
• Deh Cho tourism is not well developed but has lots of potential - it can still offer tourists pristine wilderness free from commercial interruption
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Tourism Potential
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Agricultural Potential
• Agriculture is small scale generally within community boundaries
• Potential not developed – minor land use• Limitations include; climate, soil type, difficulties
with access and power requirements• South have competitive advantage • Cost of food - opportunities and potential for
community use
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Agricultural Potential
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Composite of Development Potential
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Land Use Options
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Land Use Options
• Land Use Options represent different visions for the final land use map
• Represent 5 different levels of development
• Based on information (mostly scientific) gathered to date – no community or planning partner input yet
• Will be revised based on feedback and presented at the next round of meetings
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Preliminary Land Use Options
• Change Priority of Conservation and Development • Create 5 Land Use Options • Shows a range of possibilities available
• Compare to Current Land Withdrawals• Use Economic model to compare effects on economy
High High DevelopmentDevelopment
Low Low ConservationConservation 1 2 3 4 5
Low Low DevelopmentDevelopment
High High ConservationConservation
Options
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Options Development
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Zones
• Multiple Use Zones: all development uses permitted subject to general regulations
• Conservation Zones: no development permitted
• Uncertain Zones: conservation and development hold equal priority, no decision possible
• Traditional Use Allowed Traditional Use Allowed EverywhereEverywhere
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Land Use Option # 1
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Land Use Option # 1• Priority given to development sectors (Multiple Use Zones)• Some Uncertain Zones• Few conservation areas outside Nahanni and Edehzhie
• Employment: 51,339 new person-years of employment (~3000 per year)
• In-Migration: 3041 people need to move here to fill jobs• Tax Revenues: $3 billion over 20 years ($150 million/yr)• GDP: $11.6 billion over 20 years ($580 million/yr)
• Move to wage employment and modern lifestyle• Education, training and management a priority to secure benefits
for communities • Fragmented wildlife habitat and population declines• Loss of traditional knowledge culture and language
• Other factors determine if development occurs
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Land Use Option # 2
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Land Use Option # 2• Development focus although more weight to conservation than
Option 1• Conservation Zones protect key wildlife habitats and traditional
areas i.e. Nahanni National Park• No Uncertain Zones – clear what is permitted development
• Employment: 41,000 new person-years of employment (~2044 per year)
• In-Migration: 1941 people need to move here to fill jobs• Tax Revenues: $2.0 billion over 20 years ($100 million/yr)• GDP: $8.8 billion over 20 years ($440 million/yr)
• Strong Economy – lots of opportunities, especially in the South Deh Cho
• Habitat fragmentation - may impact traditional harvesting • Lifestyle changes may result in loss of traditional knowledge
culture and language• May increase social problems
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Land Use Option # 3
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Land Use Option # 3• Balance of Development and Conservation Priorities• Uncertain Zones cover 40% of the Deh Cho - special conditions for
development may apply• Conservation Zones better able to sustain wildlife populations,
traditional harvesting and seasonal employment
• Employment: 25,128 new person-years of employment (~1250 per year)
• In-Migration: 1000 people need to move here to fill jobs• Tax Revenues: $1.25 billion over 20 years ($62.5 million/yr)• GDP: $5.4 billion over 20 years ($270 million/yr)
• Economic benefits available from development including employment given sufficient education and training
• High disposable income for some, immigration and pressure on housing and social and medical services
• Opportunity to balance traditional lifestyle and development
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Land Use Option # 4
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Land Use Option # 4
• Focus on Conservation layers, Wildlife and TLUO promotes subsistence harvesting and traditional activities
• Some Multiple Use Zones for Development - no Uncertain Zones
• Employment: 24,951 new person-years of employment (~1248 per year)
• In-Migration: 1057 people need to move here to fill jobs• Tax Revenues: $1.2 billion over 20 years ($60 million/yr)• GDP: $5.4 billion over 20 years ($270 million/yr)
• Some benefits from development i.e. employment and tax revenue• Young people may leave communities or Deh Cho for employment
or education• Local and regional governments are a major employer and have
a lead role in skills development
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Land Use Option # 5
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Land Use Option # 5• Conservation Zones a Priority to promote traditional use and
culture• Development restricted to areas away from communities with high
potential• A few Uncertain Zones where decisions have to be made
• Employment: 14,514 new person-years of employment (~726 per year)
• In-Migration: 700 people need to move here to fill jobs• Tax Revenues: $628 million over 20 years ($31.4 million/yr)• GDP: $2.5 billion over 20 years ($125 million/yr)
• Lack of revenue and income may limit services and opportunities• Lack of opportunities may create social problems• Young people may leave communities or even the Deh Cho for
employment or education• Key role for government in employment, training and controlling
development
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Interim Land Withdrawals
• Land Withdrawals identified critical areas for interim protection
• Land Use Plan will revise Land Withdrawals
Land Use PlanningLand Use Planning
Interim Land WithdrawalsInterim Land Withdrawals
5 years in parallel5 years in parallel
Approval
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Interim Land Withdrawals
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Interim Land Withdrawals
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Current Land Withdrawals• 50% of the Deh Cho is protected• Other 50% available for development subject to IMA conditions• No uncertain zones
• Employment: 41,000 new person-years of employment (~2,045 per year)
• In-Migration: 2099 people need to move here to fill jobs• Tax Revenues: $2.5 billion over 20 years ($125 million/yr)• GDP: $9.0 billion over 20 years ($450 million/yr)
• Assumes full development – currently not the case• Many other factors determine whether or not development proceeds
– Environmental factors– Political factors and regulatory certainty– Market values of natural resource products– Infrastructure and access– Interest and marketing
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Economic Development Assessment Model
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Economic Development Assessment Model
• Determines costs & benefits for informed land use planning decisions
• Example: If a pipeline is developed how many jobs will be created, how much revenue?
• Model current economy then predict the next 20 years• Turn on and off 5 key sectors (Development Layers)• Includes traditional and wage economies• Allows us to see the economic impact of developing each
business sector, and a few specific projects• Apply Economic Assessment Model to each of five Land
Use Options and the existing land withdrawals• Results are regional not community based
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Economic Development Assessment Model
Model Structure
Government Tax and Revenue
Model
Labour Force Model
Economic Impact Model (Input-Output)User Input
Population and Demographic Model
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Economic Assessment Model Outputs
Economic Assessment Model: generates direct, indirect and induced estimates reflecting the level of development in 5 key sectors for the following:
1. Gross Production 2. GDP or Value Added by Industry3. Labour Income – Southern, Northern and Aboriginal4. Employment by Industry– Southern, Northern and
Aboriginal5. Tax revenues to the Federal Government and the
GNWT6. Population and Labour Force
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Timber Modeling
• Divided Deh Cho into 9 Forest Regions• Identified volume (m3)/ha of conifer and
aspen in each region for each land use option
• Identified logging costs (Loaded on Truck), hauling costs for each region
• Determined value of wood• Assisted by John Bartlett in Fort
Providence
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Timber Volumes
• Calculated by Region and Potential:– Very high: 350 m3/ha x % area coverage– High: 250 m3/ha x % area coverage– Moderate and Low: not assessed, uneconomical
• Fort Liard:– Very High: Conifer 90 m3/ha; Aspen 60 m3/ha– High: Conifer 7.5 m3/ha; Aspen 5.0 m3/ha
• Cameron Hills:– Very High: Conifer 70 m3/ha; Aspen 35 m3/ha– High: Conifer 7.5 m3/ha; Aspen 5.0 m3/ha
• Fort Simpson, Trout Lake, Fort Providence, Wrigley:– Very High: Conifer 70 m3/ha; Aspen – 0– High: Conifer 7.5 m3/ha; Aspen 0
• Horn Plateau, Fish Lake, Mackenzie Mountains – No Wood
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Logging Costs
• Road Development Costs: $5/m3• Loaded on Truck Costs: $25/m3 average; $20/m3 for
Fort Liard• Log Hauling Costs:
– Fort Liard: 200 km highway + 50 km off-highway, $14/m3 spruce and $18.50/m3 aspen
– Cameron Hills: 200 km highway +30 km off-highway, $13/m3 spruce, $17.30/m3 aspen
– Wrigley: 75 km, $6.15/m3 for spruce; no aspen– Fort Simpson, Trout Lake, Fort Providence: 50 km, $5.04/m3
spruce, $6.70/m3 aspen– Horn Plateau, Fish Lake, Mackenzie Mountains – No wood
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Delivered Wood Value
• Spruce $45/m3 • Aspen $30/m3• Current costs exceed this in some regions,
especially for aspen• Have defined value in the model to equal
minimum costs• Price must increase before logging is
commercially viable• Good timber potential for non-commercial
community use or replacing imported lumber
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Other Considerations
• Other Forest Products & Values– Fuel wood, non-timber products, environmental &
habitat benefits – Given low harvest level – high benefit than otherwise
expected
• Sustainability of Forest Management Practices– Resource base, small and non-contiguous– Operations, harvest and reforestation costs – Potential markets and market conditions (Sawlog
timber harvest)
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Forestry Volume Produced (Millions of M3)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLW
Mil
lio
ns o
f M
3
Volume (Millions of M3)
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Agricultural Hectares Developed
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLW
Hec
tare
s D
evel
op
ed
HectaresDeveloped
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Gas Development (Millions of M3)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLW
Gas D
evelo
pm
en
t (M
illi
on
s o
f M
3)
Volume(Millions ofM3)
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Mining Development
• Large Developments – major impacts especially during construction
• Modeled 3 mines:
MINE OPTION 1
OPTION 2
OPTION 3
OPTION 4
OPTION 5
CLW
Cantung IN IN IN IN OUT IN
Prairie Creek IN OUT OUT OUT OUT IN
Coates Lake IN OUT OUT OUT OUT IN
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Tourism Sites Developed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLW
Nu
mb
er o
f S
ites
Dev
elo
ped
Number of Sites Developed
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Total Direct Employment # 3 Total Direct Employment
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Time (Years)
Pers
on
Years
Deh Cho
Southern
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Impact on Gross Expenditure
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLWTh
ou
sa
nd
s o
f C
on
sta
nt
20
03
Do
llars
Total
Direct
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Impact on Gross Domestic Product
Impact on Gross Domestic Product
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLWTh
ou
san
ds
of
Co
nst
ant
2003
Do
llar
s
Total
Direct
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Direct & Total Employment
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLW
Peo
ple
Total
Direct
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Impact on Tax Revenue
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLW
Th
ou
san
ds o
f C
on
sta
nt
2003 D
oll
ars
GNWT
Federal
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Population Trends
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLW
Peo
ple
Adjusted
Base
![Page 75: Land Use Planning in the Deh Cho territory. Agenda 1.WHAT IS LAND USE PLANNING? 2.UPDATE ON DCLUPC ACTIVITIES & PROGRESS 3.INPUT DATA FOR LAND USE OPTIONS](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022070409/56649e745503460f94b7516c/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Unemployment Rate (%)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLW
% U
nem
plo
yed
Adjusted
Base
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Employment Rate (%)
67.0%
68.0%
69.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 5 CLW
% E
mp
loye
d
Adjusted
Base
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Population
7,000
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
Time (Years)
Po
pu
lati
on
Option 1
Option 2
Option 3
Option 4
Option 5
Option 6
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Indications!
• Terms and conditions of development
• Manage Potential Development Impacts
Higher
Lower
DevelopmentInward migration / fly-in workers
Development / Capital Works
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Expenditure
Labor Demand
Employment Opportunities
Tax Revenue
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Social, Cultural & Ecological Values
• Social, Cultural &Ecological Values not reflected in the Economic Model
• Need to be considered in Land Use Planning decisions
• Impacts may vary according to the pace and type of development
• Should be reflected in Land Use Priorities• Cumulative Effects addresses social and
cultural indicators
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Cumulative Effects
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Cumulative Effects Research• Cumulative Effects identify the overall impact of
many developments together, over time
• Land Use Objectives (Vision and priorities)
• Cumulative Effects Indicators – characteristics:
– Physical-Chemical; Ecological; Land and Resource Use; and Social
• Thresholds - define the point indicator changes to an unacceptable condition in zone; – Levels of acceptable change or tiered thresholds
– Balance human, ecological and social need
• Measure progress towards objectives
• Included in the Deh Cho Land Use Plan as Terms and Conditions for development and management
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Limits of Acceptable Change
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Ecological response curve and tiered habitat thresholds.
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Indicators and Thresholds 1
• Proposed Indicators: – Physical/Chemical
• Air Quality• Water Quality
– Ecological • Habitat Availability• Specialized Habitat Features e.g. Salt Licks• Core Habitat• Fish Habitat• Woodland Caribou
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Indicators and Thresholds 2
• Proposed Indicators: – Land Use
• Total Disturbed Area• Significant and Environmental Features• Total Corridor Density• Stream Crossing Density
– Social• Significant Cultural Features• Community Population• Labour Participation• Area and Revenue by Sector• Visual Quality
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Core Area
• Conservation Zone– Cautionary >85% Large Core Areas– Target >75% Large Core Areas– Critical >65% Large Core Areas
• Development Zone– Cautionary >65% Medium Core Areas– Target >50% Medium Core Areas– Critical >40% Medium Core Areas
Core Area 30%
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Core Area
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Total Corridor Density
• Conservation Zone– Cautionary – 1 km / square km– Target 1.2 km / square km– Critical 1.5 km / square km
• Development Zone– Cautionary – 1 km / square km– Target 1.5 km / square km– Critical 1.8 km / square km
100 sq km
60 km roads, trails, seismic = Density 0.6 km / square km
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Total Corridor Density
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Stream Crossing Density
• Cautionary – to be set by communities– Target 0.32 / square km– Critical 0.5 / square km
• Important for Fish Habitat100 sq km
Density = 0.02
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Stream Crossing Density
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Feedback Required
• Cumulative Effects Indicators and Thresholds will be a Major factor in managing overall development in the Deh Cho
• Planning Partners must agree on Threshold Values
• Requires feedback and discussion• Working to meet the Objectives of the Land
Use Plan
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Vision & Land Use Priorities
• Look at Regional Vision• What currently exists?• What do you wish to develop? protect?• What do you want to see in 20, 50,100 years?• What will be necessary? Jobs, taxes, migration• What conditions are required? • How quickly do you want to see this
development?
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Community Priorities
TourismOil & Gas
Forestry
MiningAgriculture
Traditional
Land
Use
What is
important
to you?
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Next Steps
• Community Mapping Sessions• Revise and Present new Land Use Maps at
future consultations (fall 2004)• Further consideration to:
– social and economic analysis – cumulative effects research & landscape thresholds
• Land Use Plan Development– Draft Land Use Plan (2005)– Final Land Use Plan (March 2006)
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Questions?
www.dehcholands.org
Mahsi Cho!