LAPS: UNIQUE FEATURES• Fine scale operational system at NWS

– Cloud permitting scale - No match within NOAA• Multiscale approach• Data assimilation at fine resolution, e.g. 1km, comparing to HRRR’s

13km data assimilation.

• First of its kind internationally– Long (20+ yrs) history of technology transfer– Many DA systems adapting LAPS cloud analysis

• Efficiency– Very fast, allows very frequent updating

• Portability and ease of use– Widely used / installed at sites within NOAA, US, Internationally

• Large user/developer community (150+ users)– Leadership in technology transfer 1

LAPS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY

• A unique fine scale cloud analysis– Showing high quality cloud forecast, specially 0-3h.

• Contribute to Solar Energy proposal for DOE– User metrics for Solar Energy– Improved methods for 0-6 hour Solar Energy forecasting

• Very fine scale data assimilation, numerical modeling, ensemble methods

– Optimal use of forecast information• Use of ensemble forecasts in operational & economic decision

making

• Many institutions approached FAB for proposals using LAPS for solar energy applications

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Global Horizontal Irradiance Analysis

+ Observations

3-Frames at 15-minute

interval

Utilizes GOES imageryand 3-D cloud analysisallowing rapid 1-3km resolution update

Solar Radiation Analysis (GHI) Verification

HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.

Partly Cloudy Days

Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) Forecast

• Generated from LAPS initialized WRF model

• “Hot-Start” procedure used to help get clouds into model• Vertical Velocity / Horizontal Divergence• Temperature / Height Adjustment• Hydrometeor Assimilation• Consistent Water Vapor Fields

OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 5

GHI Forecast 0-60 minutes 10-min Time Steps

1.7km Domain ResolutionObserved Forecast

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Simulated IR Satellite Forecast

• Helps show forecast behavior of low & high clouds• Simulated VIS also available – derived from cloud amount• Developing objective cloud and solar forecast verification

Observed / 15 mins Forecast

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