Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015

Update

Embezzlement Study 1997-1998

2

The Commission conducted a study of felony

embezzlement cases to examine the relationship

between the amount embezzled and sentencing

outcomes.

― Analysis of felony embezzlement cases

sentenced under truth-in-sentencing laws

between January 1, 1995, and June 30, 1997.

Since analysis revealed a relationship between

dollar amount embezzled and the sentence

received, new factors were added to Sections A, B,

and C of the Fraud worksheets.

The following year, the Commission conducted a

study of larceny and fraud cases to examine the

relationship between the amount of money or value of

property stolen and sentencing outcomes.

The Commission studied a sample of felony larceny

and fraud cases sentenced in CY1998 and CY1999.

― Sample excluded embezzlement because it had

been examined in the previous study.

― Certain other offenses were also excluded, such

as motor vehicle theft and forging public record,

since the statutory definition is not tied to value.

Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000

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Final sample was 749 cases (309 larceny; 440 fraud).

Supplemental data was collected on factors of

interest that were not contained in automated data.

− Narratives from the Pre/Post-Sentence

Investigation (PSI) reports

− Court records

Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000

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Although many variations of the factors were tried,

models with factors that were statistically significant

were only marginally better than the existing

guidelines model.

− The best models involved both dollar amount

and a factor related to restitution and/or

victim type.

− Adding such factors would have added a

layer of complexity for users when scoring.

Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000

Commission took no action

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2013-2015 Study

A large sample is preferred, as some cases will be eliminated in subsequent stages.

― Supplemental data may reveal a conviction for an excluded offense.

― Wrong VCC may have been used.

― Available data may be insufficient to include the offender.

Strategy is similar to the original Larceny/Fraud Study in 1999-2000.

Selection of Study Sample:

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015

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Sample was based on a stratified random

sampling technique to under-sample grand

larceny cases and over-sample other types of

larcenies.

− To ensure adequate number of cases

for non-grand larceny in the sample

Sample includes embezzlement.

− Length of time since previous study

− Judges frequently cite dollar amount

when sentencing above the guidelines

Selection of Study Sample:

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015

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Number of Cases

Grand Larceny 200

Embezzlement 600

Other Larcenies 400

Fraud 300

Total 1,500

For the analysis, the sampled cases will be

weighted to reflect each subgroup’s actual

proportion in the population.

Selection of Study Sample FY2011 - FY2013

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015

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Dollar value of money or property stolen

Type(s) of items

Damage of items

Money/items recovered

Insurance coverage for items

Fraud protection for loss

Location of offense

Duration of offense

Number of victims

Type and Age of victim(s)

Offender relationship to victim

Status of restitution at time of sentencing

Restitution ordered at sentencing

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015

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Supplemental Data Collection

Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) reports

― 42% of the sampled cases were matched to PSI data

− Of these, 98% contained information in the offense

narrative field

− Compared to the previous study, the percentage of

sampled cases with available PSI information is much

lower

Officer of the Court Remote Access (OCRA) System

― Contains scanned copies of court records

― Of the sampled cases, 60.2% occurred in a court with OCRA

The majority of sampled cases (78.7%) either had a PSI or

occurred in an OCRA jurisdiction

Electronic Data Sources:

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015

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47 jurisdictions currently use OCRA

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015OCRA Jurisdictions

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Albemarle Lynchburg RockinghamAlexandria Montgomery ShenandoahAugusta Nelson SmythBedford New Kent SouthamptonBristol Newport News SpotsylvaniaCaroline Norfolk StaffordChesapeake Northampton StauntonDanville Pittsylvania SuffolkDickenson Portsmouth TazewellDinwiddie Powhatan WashingtonFauquier Prince Edward WaynesboroFredericksburg Prince William WilliamsburgHalifax Pulaski WinchesterHanover Richmond City YorkHenrico Roanoke CityIsle of Wight Roanoke CountyLoudoun

Other Court records (paper files)

Law Enforcement Databases

Commonwealth’s Attorneys’ files

Victim Impact Statements

Probation Office records

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015

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Other Potential Data Sources

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Region 1 Tidewater Cases: 68

Region 2Northern VirginiaCases: 25

Region 5Southside VirginiaCases: 24

Region 6Shenandoah Valley/PiedmontCases: 55

Region 4Southwest VirginiaCases: 66

Region 3Central VirginiaCases: 81

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Cases in Non-OCRA Courts without a PSI

Total: 319

Spring/Summer 2015 Data collection

August/September 2015 Data analysis

September 2015 Present preliminary results

November 2015 Present proposal for guidelines

revision (if supported by data)

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2015Revised Work Plan*

15* Subject to change based on accessibility of information