late career employment transitions
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2013 MBAA/NAMS presentation, "Transition from Late-Career Displacement to Employability: How Older Knowledge Workers Confront Labor Market Adversity" John F. Fruner, Baker CollegeTRANSCRIPT
TRANSITION FROM LATE-CAREER DISPLACEMENT TO EMPLOYABILITY:�How Older Knowledge Workers Overcome Labor Market Adversity
John F. Fruner
Doctoral Candidate, Business Administration
Baker College Center for Graduate Studies Flint, Michigan
A Research in Progress Presentation North American Management Society Distinguished Paper Award Winner in Human Resource Management 49th Annual MBAA/NAMS Conference February 27, 2013
The Older Worker Profile project was announced by the U.S. Census Bureau on June 18, 2007 to study employment and retirement trends among Americans over age 45.
“The retirement of baby boomers will have a huge impact on the work force,” said Census Bureau Director Louis Kincannon. “Businesses and planners need a better understanding of labor force trends, the loss of experienced workers and the payout of retirement benefits.”
Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois were not included in the 31-state project.
The most recent Indiana data were published before the Great Recession began, and for Wisconsin, three months after. (U.S. Census Bureau, 2007)
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We don’t know as much as we should about older workers . . .
. . . especially about those who were displaced in the 2007-2009 recession.
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Conceptual Foundations for This Study
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1 Jobseekers overcoming Michigan
labor market adversity by finding rewarding employment are making a significant collective contribution to economic recovery.
• What is labor market adversity?
• What are some trends in job loss and reentry?
Conceptual Foundation 1:
Jobseekers overcoming Michigan labor market adversity by finding rewarding employment are making a significant collective contribution to economic recovery.
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Michigan, June 2009 – official “end of the recession” nationally
• Unemployment: 15.2% • Estimates of underemployment:
25% • Highest unemployment in the U.S.
for the 12th consecutive month . . . worst level since 1984 for any state (Rooney, 2009)
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What is labor market adversity?
Worst recovery conditions in 11 American recessions since 1948 Employment still 2.4% below November 2006 peak
U.S. National Labor Market: Slow Recovery
Figure 1. Percentage of American job loss from inter-‐recession peak levels, 1948-‐2012 (McBride, 2013)
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Figure 1. Percentage of American job loss from inter-‐recession peak levels, 1948-‐2012 (McBride, 2013)
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Good news:
§ “Sixth-fastest growing economy in the nation” (Governor Rick Snyder, January 2013)
§ Average 2012 employment in 55+ age group was 888,000 (52% of 55-64 group, 14% of 65+)
§ 2012 unemployment rate in 50+ age group was 2-3% below the 8.9% total workforce rate (U.S. Census Current Population Survey data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013a)
Bad news (a.k.a. opportunity):
§ 65,000 in 55+ age group and 76,000 aged 45-54 are unemployed jobseekers (BLS, 2013a)
Michigan, 2013
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Gray areas - Age 55-and-over displaced workers (red outline) are now jobseekers more than retirees Orange - Displaced older jobseekers are unemployed at rates three or more times the rates of their age groups Women (all ages) less likely to be employed than men (Adapted from Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012)
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Employment Status of U.S. Workers Displaced 2009-2011
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Nearly one in three workers aged 60 and older are now in the civilian labor force, having either remained or returned (Weber, 2013)
Not surprising, since median U.S. net worth dropped 38.8% from 2007 to 2010 (Bricker, et al., 2012), to 1992 levels (Mui, 2012)
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Age 60 no longer means retirement, for 29.4%
Poor reemployment rate among displaced older workers
(unused existing labor supply)
+ Increasing workforce participation
aspirations by older workers (increasing supply trend)
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Key trend: Older knowledge workers constitute a large and growing proportion of total
underutilized Michigan and U.S. labor supply
Q: Are There Jobs in This Economy?
December 2012 data for 12 Midwestern States (Bureau of Labor Sta.s.cs, 2013b)
Nonfarm job openings, unadjusted: 774,000, about 2.5% of total employment and opportuniRes
Note: Midwest regional data are not necessarily representa8ve of Michigan. North Dakota and five other Midwestern states other than Michigan are included, all with strong job crea8on and hiring rates rela8ve to U.S. rates (Jones, 2013) Consensus: Stronger labor demand in 2012 vs. 2008-‐ 2011, likely to conRnue and grow at a modest rate
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Labor demand is rebounding in Michigan, but still underutilizing labor supply
470 jobs posted by “Age 50+ friendly firms” on 2/18/2013 on a public job board (SimplyHired.com)
January 2013 data (all occupaRons)*
140,333 online help-‐wanted job posRngs 413,000 reported unemployed
*Michigan Labor Market Informa8on Dashboard data based on Conference Board/Haver Analy8cs study of U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta8s8cs surveys (Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget, 2013)
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Conceptual Foundations for This Study
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2 Large numbers of displaced older
knowledge workers still seeking new jobs suggest their reemployment is a compelling socioeconomic opportunity.
Conceptual Foundation 2:
Large numbers of displaced older knowledge workers in Michigan are seeking new jobs.
Their reemployment is a compelling socioeconomic opportunity.
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What characteristics and experiences do displaced knowledge workers have in
common?
Anecdotal knowledge / a priori themes
Ø This was not their career plan
Ø Most are not proficient in job search, surprised that their traditional job search knowledge is no longer effective
Ø Many are highly motivated to seek support and guidance
Ø They know someone who has found work but aren’t sure how they did it
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Conceptual Foundations for This Study
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3 Employment might be the ultimate
goal of jobseekers, but the practical goal of a successful post-displacement late-career employment transition is employability.
Conceptual Foundation 3:
Employment might be the ultimate goal of jobseekers, but the practical goal of a successful post-‐‑displacement late-‐‑career employment transition is employability.
Employability is the antecedent of employment over which the jobseeker has the greatest amount of control, and is more likely to ensure continued employment than seniority or other traditional assets (Arthur & Rousseau, 1996, cited in paper).
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Conceptual Foundations for This Study
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4 The best paths to successful
transitions from late-career displacement to renewed employability are paths that have worked for employed jobseekers.
Conceptual Foundation 4:
The best paths to successful transitions from late-‐‑career displacement to renewed employability are paths that have worked for employed jobseekers. Learning from success cases can contribute toward improving poor success rates.
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The American labor force is changing to include a growing number of older people who choose to remain gainfully employed in a variety of occupations. Those who are displaced in later stages of their careers face especially difficult challenges. U.S. national research indicates that for every displaced older worker (born before 1965) who succeeds in reentering rewarding employment, at least one other does not. Displaced workers are unemployed at significantly higher rates than others in their age groups.
Abstract
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This doctoral dissertation research will explore the under-researched experiences of knowledge workers who found their way back to the workplace after late-career exits. The objective of this study is to yield lessons to benefit late-career jobseekers, labor market intermediaries, and employers in how knowledge workers can develop and sustain late-career employability, an attribute that is likely to grow in significance as knowledge workers increasingly seek to extend their careers.
Abstract
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1 Career researchers have rarely addressed the phenomenon of successful late-career transition after displacement, especially in the context of unusually persistent adverse labor market conditions
• Publications are primarily non-‐‑academic whitepapers from public/private centers and think tanks
• Primary focus: Plight of the unsuccessful
Synopsis of Literature Review
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2 Numerous quantitative studies of unemployment, retirement, and job search fail to provide adequate understanding of the underlying reasons for low success rates among older jobseekers, or to illuminate factors associated with success
Synopsis of Literature Review
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3 Qualitative research is needed with regional perspective, 50+ age-group focus, and post-recession context to explore how and why success is achievable
Research models cited in paper (and one potential model)
• 2004 Midwestern study of college graduates (Ebberwein, et al.)
• 2007 Australian study of 30s age group (McArdle, Waters, Briscoe, Hall)
• 2012 U.K. study of older workers (AOM, unpublished)
Synopsis of Literature Review
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Existing theory and understanding grounded in research are inadequate to explain how and why some knowledge workers succeed in making late-career transitions to new work after a period of unemployment . . .
The Research Problem
. . . while others who seem equally employable do not.
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Purposes of This Research
To discover how late-career jobseekers successfully transition from displacement to employability,
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To discover how late-career jobseekers successfully transition from displacement to employability,
build a foundation for new theory,
Purposes of This Research
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To discover how late-career jobseekers successfully transition from displacement to employability,
build a foundation for new theory,
learn possible reasons why displaced workers seem more likely to be unemployed than others in their age groups,
Purposes of This Research
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To discover how late-career jobseekers successfully transition from displacement to employability,
build a foundation for new theory,
learn possible reasons why displaced workers seem more likely to be unemployed than others in their age groups,
and address the real-world problem that only half of displaced jobseekers at age 55-64, and one in four 65 or older, succeed in such transitions (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012)
Purposes of This Research
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If we could visualize a model for achieving
and maintaining employability after late-
career displacement, what would it look like?
Figure 4. Late-‐career employability transiRon model, with labels indicaRng how elements relate to the research problem (RP) and research quesRons (RQ1 through RQ4) of this study (Fruner, 2013).
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What do older jobseekers in knowledge occupations do differently to achieve
successful post-displacement transitions?
Research Question 1
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How do labor market intermediaries (LMIs) support older jobseekers effectively
in post-displacement transitions?
Research Question 2
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How do employers contribute to successful late-career reemployment after
displacement?
Research Question 3
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How do external resources and environmental factors other than LMIs and employers positively
influence workforce participation among displaced older jobseekers?
Research Question 4
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Methodology Overview • Multiple case study approach with semi-structured
responsive depth interviews (primary methodological models cited in paper are Yin, Stake, Rubin & Rubin)
• Focus on success cases (ref. Brinkerhoff, cited in paper)
• Bracketing interview to document researcher bias (to eliminate a key threat to internal validity)
• Pilot testing of interview questions and themes
• Thematic analysis using codes developed from a priori and emergent themes
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Potential Participant Examples Code Gender* Posi:on Before Late-‐Career
Displacement or Exit Current Posi:on (All With New Organiza:ons)
A F Program Manager, AutomoRve Engineer, AutomoRve
B M Director-‐Quality, AutomoRve Professor, Higher EducaRon
C F Manager-‐Sales, AutomoRve Director-‐OperaRons, Manufacturing
D M Editor, Newspaper Editor, Newspaper
E F Manager-‐Sales, Home Goods Self-‐Employed
F M Engineer, AutomoRve Registered Nurse
G F Development Officer, Higher EducaRon
Development Officer, Higher EducaRon
H M Manager-‐Sales, AutomoRve Project Coordinator, ResidenRal ConstrucRon
* Goal is to recruit 3-4 men and 3-4 women for insight into gender perspectives
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ü Proposal (IntroducRon, Literature Review, Methodology) approved by dissertaRon commifee
ü Research applicaRon approved by InsRtuRonal Review Board (IRB)
ü Researcher brackeRng interview and pilot interviews within two weeks
ü Research interviews, analysis begin in March
ü CompleRon and defense in August 2013
Dissertation Status and Plan
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Questions?
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Author Information
John F. Fruner Orion Township, MI 248-‐‑802-‐‑3915 [email protected] Doctoral Candidate in Business Administration, Baker College Center for Graduate Studies MBAA/NAMS 2013 Presentation: Transition From Late-‐‑Career Displacement to Employability: How Older Knowledge Workers Overcome Labor Market Adversity
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Presentation References
Bricker, J., Kennickell, A.B., Moore, K.B., & Sabelhaus, J. (2012, June). Changes in U.S. family finances from 2007 to 2010: Evidence from the survey of consumer finances. Federal Reserve BulleRn, 98(2), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and StaRsRcs. Retrieved February 17, 2013 from hfp://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulleRn/2012/PDF/scf12.pdf
Bureau of Labor StaRsRcs, U.S. Department of Labor (2012, August 28). Employment status of displaced workers. Retrieved February 3, 2013 from hfp://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2012/ted_20120828.htm, data from hfp://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2012/ted_20120828_data.htm
Bureau of Labor StaRsRcs (2013a, January). Preliminary 2012 data on employment status by state and demographic group. Retrieved February 24, 2013 from hfp://www.bls.gov/lau/, data in ptable14full2012.xls and notes at hfp://www.bls.gov/lau/pnote14full2012.pdf
Bureau of Labor StaRsRcs (2013b, February). Job openings lifle changed at 3.6 million in December (news release). Retrieved February 12, 2013 from hfp://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf
Fruner, J.F. (2013). TransiRon from late-‐career displacement to employability: How older knowledge workers overcome labor market adversity. Unpublished manuscript. Author’s personal library.
Jones, J.M. (2013, February 6). North Dakota, Midwestern states lead U.S. in hiring. Gallup Economy (electronic newslefer). Retrieved February 12, 2013 from hfp://www.gallup.com/poll/160325/north-‐dakota-‐midwestern-‐states-‐lead-‐hiring.aspx
McBride, W. (2013, February 1). January employment report: 157,000 Jobs, 7.9% unemployment rate. Calculated Risk Finance and Economics (online newslefer). Retrieved February 2, 2013, from hfp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/02/january-‐employment-‐report-‐157000-‐jobs.html
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Presentation References (continued)
Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget (2013). Labor Market InformaRon (LMI) Dashboard. Retrieved February 11, 2013 from hfp://milmi.org/?PAGEID=67&SUBID=215
Mui, Y.Q. (2012, June 11). Americans saw wealth plummet 40 percent from 2007 to 2010, Federal Reserve says. The Washington Post, Home/CollecRons/Americans. Retrieved February 17, 2013 from hfp://arRcles.washingtonpost.com/2012-‐06-‐11/business/35461572_1_median-‐balance-‐median-‐income-‐families
Rooney, B. (2009, July 17). Michigan unemployment tops 15%. CNNMoney.com. Retrieved February 3, 2013 from hfp://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/index.htm
SimplyHired.com (2013, February 18). Michigan statewide job posRng search performed at hfp://www.simplyhired.com/
Snyder, R. (2013, January 27). Gov. Rick Snyder: Job creaRon strategies are working for Michigan. Detroit Free Press. Retrieved February 1, 2013 from hfp://www.freep.com/arRcle/20130127/OPINION05/301270114/Gov-‐Rick-‐Snyder-‐Job-‐creaRon-‐strategies-‐are-‐working-‐for-‐Michigan?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s
The Conference Board (2013, January 30). Online labor demand up 106,900 in January. The Conference Board Help Wanted Online® (HWOL) Data Series. Retrieved February 11, 2013 from hfp://www.conference-‐board.org/data/helpwantedonline.cfm
U.S. Census Bureau (2007, June 18). Census Bureau launches older worker profiles for 31 states (news release). Retrieved February 24, 2013 from hfp://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/aging_populaRon/cb07-‐86.html
Weber, L. (2013, January 31). U.S. Department of Labor (2012, August 28). Americans rip up reRrement plans. The Wall Street Journal, U.S. EdiRon. Retrieved February 3, 2013 from hfp://online.wsj.com/arRcle/SB10001424127887323926104578276241741448064.html?mod=wsj_valetbofom_email
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