DATA BMPKG STASIUN METEOROLOGI MEULABOH TAHUN 2013

BULAN -X SARTUAN - Y (MILIMETER)1 1252 6583 2394 4295 2126 4097 1858 1549 748

10 6011 41612 251.5

N 12

Regresi LinearX Y XY X^21 125 125 1 a_0 343.02272 658 1316 43 239 717 9 a_1 -2.9458044 429 1716 165 212 1060 25 Persamaan6 409 2454 36 y = 343,0227 - 2,9458x7 185 1295 498 154 1232 649 748 6732 81

10 60 600 10011 416 4576 12112 251.5 3018 144

SIGMA 78 3886.5 24841 650

Regresi Pangkat 2𝑦=𝑎_0+𝑎_1 𝑥+𝑎_2 𝑥^2

X Y X^2 X^3 X^4 XY X^21 125 1 1 1 125 1252 658 4 8 16 1316 26323 239 9 27 81 717 21514 429 16 64 256 1716 68645 212 25 125 625 1060 53006 409 36 216 1296 2454 147247 185 49 343 2401 1295 90658 154 64 512 4096 1232 98569 748 81 729 6561 6732 60588

10 60 100 1000 10000 600 600011 416 121 1331 14641 4576 5033612 251.5 144 1728 20736 3018 36216

SIGMA 78 3886.5 650 6084 60710 24841 203857

MATRIKS 12 78 65078 650 6084 a_0 3886.5

650 6084 60710 a_1 24841a_2 203857

Invers 1.068182 -0.3409091 0.02272727-0.340909 0.13361638 -0.009740260.022727 -0.0097403 0.00074925

Hasil a_0 316.079545a_1 8.60127373a_2 -0.8882368

Masukkan nilai a0, a1 dan a2 ke dalam persamaan:

x y1 125 323.792582 -198.792582 39518.4908242 658 329.729146 328.270854 107761.753683 239 333.889236 -94.8892358 9003.96706394 429 336.272852 92.7271479 8598.32394885 212 336.879995 -124.879995 15595.0131526 409 335.710664 73.2893357 5371.32672217 185 332.76486 -147.76486 21834.4538928 154 328.042582 -174.042582 30290.8204959 748 321.543831 426.456169 181864.86393

10 60 313.268606 -253.268606 64144.98698511 416 303.216908 112.783092 12720.0258212 251.5 291.388736 -39.8887363 1591.1112807

Sigma 498295.1378RMSE 212.83692814

𝑦 ̂ 𝑦−𝑦 ̂ (𝑦−𝑦 ̂ )^2

MSE 45299.557982

Regresi Pangkat 3

X Y X^2 X^3 X^4 X^5 X^61 125 1 1 1 1 12 658 4 8 16 32 643 239 9 27 81 243 7294 429 16 64 256 1024 40965 212 25 125 625 3125 156256 409 36 216 1296 7776 466567 185 49 343 2401 16807 1176498 154 64 512 4096 32768 2621449 748 81 729 6561 59049 531441

10 60 100 1000 10000 100000 100000011 416 121 1331 14641 161051 177156112 251.5 144 1728 20736 248832 2985984

SIGMA 78 3886.5 650 6084 60710 630708 6735950

MATRIKS 12 78 650 6084 a_078 650 6084 60710 a_1

650 6084 60710 630708 a_26084 60710 630708 6735950 a_3

Invers 2.676768 -1.5841751 0.25252525 -0.011784512-1.584175 1.09452893 -0.18734969 0.00910817580.252525 -0.1873497 0.03357753 -0.001683502

-0.011785 0.00910818 -0.0016835 8.633342E-05

Hasil a_0 35678.9377a_1 -24419.235a_2 4179.77981a_3 -203.2244

Masukkan nilai a0, a1 , a2 dan a3 ke dalam persamaan:

x y1 125 15236.2576 -15111.25763 228350107.1982 658 1933.79076 -1275.790765 1627642.075533 239 -5447.8093 5686.8093018 32339800.0351

𝑦=𝑎_0+𝑎_1 𝑥+𝑎_2 𝑥^2+𝑎_3 𝑥^3

𝑦 ̂ 𝑦−𝑦 ̂ (𝑦−𝑦 ̂ )^2

4 429 -8127.88898 8556.8889814 73220349.03985 212 -7325.79469 7537.7946868 56818348.74036 409 -4260.87283 4669.8728309 21807712.25657 185 -152.469826 337.46982647 113885.8837788 154 3780.06791 -3626.067914 13148368.51389 748 6317.39398 -5569.393976 31018149.2643

10 60 6240.16195 -6180.161949 38194401.717911 416 2329.02542 -1913.025419 3659666.2538412 251.5 -6635.36203 6886.8620269 47428868.577

Sigma 547727299.556RMSE 7056.44321657

MSE 49793390.8687

Kesimpulan : Regresi pangkat 2 yang memiliki best fit karena memiliki error paling sedikit

Pengujiany

125 711.2483 -586.2483 343687.012677882658 2281.362 -1623.362 2635303.81977419239 1047.07 -808.0699 652977.011883222429 1606.773 -1177.773 1387148.59710744212 967.5332 -755.5332 570830.441662795409 1547.857 -1138.857 1296994.45411756185 887.9965 -702.9965 494204.083928309154 796.6766 -642.6766 413033.178031322748 2546.484 -1798.484 3234545.6540937260 519.771 -459.771 211389.35314991

416 1568.477 -1152.477 1328203.86415289251.5 1083.892 -832.3925 692877.244951617

Sigma 13261194.7155309Error RMSE 1097.98140055164

Error MSE 1205563.15595735

𝑦 ̂ 𝑦−𝑦 ̂ (𝑦−𝑦 ̂ )^2

XY X^2 X^3125 125 125

1316 2632 5264717 2151 6453

1716 6864 274561060 5300 265002454 14724 883441295 9065 634551232 9856 788486732 60588 545292

600 6000 600004576 50336 5536963018 36216 434592

24841 203857 1890025

3886.52481

2038571890025