latin america as partner of the german economy america as partner of the german economy when do you...
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Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Latin America as partner of the German EconomyWhen do you go Latam ?
1Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Agenda
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Final Remarks
Macroeconomics
Do you know ...
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2Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Agenda
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Final Remarks
Macroeconomics
Do you know ...
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3Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Lateinamerikainitiativen der deutschen Bundesregierun g:
2010: Does this still come true ?
1995: „Wertegemeinschaft“
4Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
+42434392Ecuador
+5.859 (+480%)27.885 (+49%)22.026 (+25%)Lateinamerika gesamt
+12916344Kuba
-13709722Venezuela
+3,254
+265
+197
+995
+ 631
Saldo für Deutschland
6,9393,685Mexico
10,4019,406Brasilien
1,8121,615Chile
1,200935Kolumbien
2,4001,769Argentinien
ExporteImporteImporte aus ... / Exporte nach...
in Mio. EUR
* Quellen: Lateinamerikaverein; Stat. Bundesamt
Lateinamerika Wirtschaftsbeziehungen zu Deutschland (in Mio. Euro , Gesamtjahr 2010)*
5Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Agenda
page
page
page
Final Remarks
Macroeconomics
Do you know ...
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6Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Key parameters you need to pay attention to:
GDP per capita
Size of the local economy
Size of potential marketfor German products
Level of qualification of local labour force
Political situation
7Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
0.1020.1745,20033.31 (15.2%)6.5Paraguay
2.41.814,700596 (7.5%)42Argentina
53.6476.537,60010,090 (9.9%)1,400China
0.434
9.4
21.9
German imports from ...
in billion EUR* (2010)
0.231
10.4
26.3
German exports to ...
in billion EUR* (2010)
12,727
9,881
10,739
GDP per capita
USD***
4.433585Latin America
2,024 (7.5%)193Brazil
47.99 (8.5%)
GDP**In billion USD (growth in %,
2010)
3.3Uruguay
million inhabitants
(2010)
Macroeconomic comparison (Mercosur)
Sources: * LAV Hamburg; GTAI (Germany Trade & Invest); IMF; CIA World Factbook; exchange rate dd. 31.12.2010: 1 EUR = 1,3252 USD; ** calculated on purchase power parity with USA ; *** comparison: BRD USD 35.700
8Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
0.1550.35911,30051.17 (4%)4,6Costa Rica
7.13.713,9001,567 (5.4%)114Mexico
0.231
0.083
21.9
German imports from ...
in billion EUR* (2010)
0.316
0.182
26,3
German exports to ...
in billion EUR* (2010)
13,000
5,200
6,942
GDP per capita
USD***
4,433585Latin America
70.15 (2.6%)13,8Guatemala
44.36 (7.5%)
GDP**billion USD
(growth in %,2010)
3,5Panama
million inhabitants
(2010)
Macroeconomic comparison* (Mexico and Central America)
Sources:
* LAV Hamburg; GTAI (Germany Trade & Invest); IMF; CIA World Factbook; exchange rate dd. 31.12.2010: 1 EUR = 1, 3252 USD** calculated on purchase power parity with USA*** comparison: BRD USD 35.700
9Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
498%6.9%UYUUruguay
594%7.2%PYGParaguay
797.2%22%ARSArgentina
2
3
Hermes category
91.6%
90.4%
Literacy
5.9%BRLBrazil
5%
Inflation
CNYChina
currency
Macroeconomic comparison (Mercosur)
Sources:
* LAV Hamburg; GTAI (Germany Trade & Invest), CIA World Factbook; exchange rate dd. 31.12.2010: 1 EUR = 1,3252 USD** calculated on purchase power parity with USA*** comparison: BRD USD 35.700
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394.9%5.8%CRCCosta Rica
386.1%4.1%MXNMexico
3
5
Hermes category
91.9%
69.1%
Literacy
3.9%GTQGuatemala
3.5%
Inflation
PABPanama
currency
Macroeconomic comparison (Mexico and Central America)
Sources:
* LAV Hamburg; GTAI (Germany Trade & Invest), CIA World Factbook; exchange rate dd. 31.12.2010: 1 EUR = 1,3252 USD** calculated on purchase power parity with USA*** comparison: BRD USD 35.700
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Market overview Mercosur (chances for German export s)
Production and Trade
.... exports.... imports.... produces
Soybeans and derivatives, petroleumand gas, vehicles, corn, wheat
Machinery, motorvehicles, petroleum and natural gas, organicechemicals, plastics
consumer electronics, agricultural products (food, drinks, fish), automotive parts, fuels, iron and steel, paper products, tobacco, lemons
Argentina
iron ore, oil, footwear, meat, sugar, transport equipment, iron and steel
machinery, oil, chemicalproducts, consumer electronics, transport equipment, pharmaceuticals
agricultural products (food, drinks, fish), transport equipment, machinery, metal products, medicine equipment, wood, plastics, textiles, aircraft
Brazil
Sources:European Commission for Trade; Germany Trade & Invest, CIA World Factbook
Brazil‘s economy has the highest degree of diversification !
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Market overview Mercosur (chances for German export s)
Production and Trade
.... exports.... imports.... produces
oleiferous fruit, meat, animal food, vegetableoil, electricity, corn, wood, leather
electronics, oil, chemicals, transport equipment, tractors, machinery, consumer electronics, fertiliser
Sugarcane, food and tabacco, meat, textiles and clothing, vegetable oil, cement, electricpowermilk products
Paraguay
beef, rice, soya, milk products, cellulose, rice, wool, wheat
Crude oil, refined oilmchemicals, machinery, transportation vehicles, (consumer) electronics, cellular phones, insecticides
plastics, iron and steel, chemicals, wood, furniture, dairy products, fish, meat, foodprocessing, beverages
Uruguay
Sources:European Commission for Trade; Germany Trade & Invest, CIA World Factbook
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Market overview Mercosur (chances for German export s)
Trade partners
Brazil (20%), EU 27 (19%), Chile (8%), USA (7%), China (7%),
Brazil (31%), EU 27 (17%), USA (14%), China (13%), Mexico (3%), Germany 5.1%
Argentina
EU 27 (23%), China (13%), USA (11%), Argentina (8%), Netherlands5.4%, Germany 4.1% Japan (3%)
EU 27 (23%), USA (17%), China (13%), Argentina (9% ), Germany 7.7%, Japan (4%)
Brazil
.... exports to.... imports from
Sources:European Commission for Trade; Germany Trade & Invest, CIA World Factbook
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Market overview Mercosur (chances for German export s)
Brazil (20%), Uruguay (17%), Chile (11%), Argentina (11%), EU 27 (6%)
China (30%), Brazil (23%), Argentina (16%), EU 27 (6%), Venezuela (5%), Japan (5%)
Paraguay
Trade partners
Brazil (21%), EU 27 (19 %), Argentina(7.5 %), Chile (5.5%),Russia (5%)
.... exports to
Brazil (18.6%), Argentina (16.7%), China (13.5%), Venezuela (9.1%), USA (8.3%), Russia (4.2%)
.... imports from
Uruguay
Sources:European Commission for Trade; Germany Trade & Invest, CIA World Factbook
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Market overview Mexico and Central America (chances for German exports)
Production and Trade
.... exports.... imports.... produces
manufactured goods, oil and oil products, silver, fruits, vegetables, coffee, cotton
metalworking machines, steel mill products, agricultural machinery, electrical equipment, carparts for assembly, repairparts for motor vehicles, aircraft, and aircraft parts
food and drinks, textiles and clothing, leather, woodproducts, tobacco, machinery, electronics, furniture, motorvehicles, tourism
Mexico
coffee, sugar, petroleum, apparel, bananas, fruits and vegetables, cardamom
fuels, machinery and transport equipment, construction materials, grain, fertilizers, electricity
agricultural products, miningproducts, fuels, textiles and clothing, tourism
Guatemala
Sources:European Commission for Trade; Germany Trade & Invest, CIA World Factbook
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Market overview Central America (chances for German exports)
Production and Trade
.... exports.... imports.... produces
electronics, fruits, mesuring technologies, chemicals, coffee, textiles and clothing
electronics, chemicals, oil, machinery, transport equipment, textiles and clothing, paper products, cereals, iron and steel
agricultural products, fuels and mining products, machinery and transport equipment
Costa Rica
fish, fruits, gold, chemicals, meat, paper, coffee
oil, chemicals, transport equipment, machinery, electronics, textiles and clothing, iron and steel, cereals, metal products
agricultural products, fuels and mining products, machinery and transport equipment
Panama
Sources:European Commission for Trade; Germany Trade & Invest, CIA World Factbook
18Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Market overview Mexico and Central America (chances for German exports)
Trade partners
USA (81%), EU 27 (5%), Canada (4%), Colombia (1%), Brazil (1%)
USA (49%), China (14%), EU 27 (12%), Japan (5%), South Korea (5%)
Mexico
USA (42%), El Salvador (9%), Honduras (8%), Mexico (7%), EU 27 (6%)
USA (37%), Mexico (11%), EU 27 (7%), China (6%), El Salvador (5%)
Guatemala
.... exports to.... imports from
Sources:European Commission for Trade; Germany Trade & Invest, CIA World Factbook
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Market overview Central America (chances for German exports)
USA (36%), EU 27 (18%), China (9%), Netherlands (6.8%), Panama (5%), Guatemala (4%)
USA (43%), EU 27 (8%), Mexico (7%), China (6%), Japan (5%)
Costa Rica
Trade partners
Venezuela (22%), South Korea (17%), EU 27 (12%), Ecuador (6%), India(5%)
.... exports to
Japan (28%), China (14%), Singapore (13%), South Korea (10%), USA (9%)
.... imports from
Panama
Sources:European Commission for Trade; Germany Trade & Invest, CIA World Factbook
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Abundant natural resources
Significant proportion of manufacturedproducts in total production and exports
Continuation of inflation targeting policy
High amount of foreign currencyreserves
Size and potential of the domesticmarket
Competitive labour costs
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 2010: 48 bln USD
Strengths
Lack of infrastructure (energy, transport network, ports and airports)
Social imbalances
Lack of skilled labour
High cost of credit
Excessive public-sector debt
Weaknesses
Back Up: Brazil
Quellen: www.coface.com; Bloomberg
21Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Agenda
page
page
page
Final Remarks
Macroeconomics
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22Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Middle East
Leading position in Euro payments and trade services
Source: various FImetrix studies 2008-2010; market shares in selected products excl. use of own bank / Africa figures based on SWIFT Watch reports and own estimates respectively
Western Europe & North America CEE & CIS Asia Pacific
Latin America
Leading providerLC Reimbursements
n/aLCs
No 3Treasury Clearing
No 2Commercial Payments
No 1LC Reimbursements
No 1LCs
No 2Treasury Clearing
No 2Commercial Payments
No 2LC Reimbursements
No 4 European Bank LCs
No 3Treasury Clearing
No 2Commercial Payments
No 1LC Reimbursements
No 1 European BankLCs
No 1Treasury Clearing
No 1Commercial Payments
No 1LC Reimbursements
No 3LCs
No 1Treasury Clearing
No 2 Commercial Payments
No 1Number of account relationships
No 1Number of bank relationships
No 3Number of LCs handled
No 3 Number of payments processed
Africa
23Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
7,000 bank clients, over 60 locations, one bank: Com merzbank
New York
Caracas
São Paulo
Buenos Aires
Panama City
Johannesburg
Addis AbabaLagos
TripoliCairo
Beirut
Dubai
AshgabatBaku
Mumbai
TashkentAlmaty
Novosibirsk
Beijing Seoul
Shanghai
Taipei
Tokyo
Hong Kong
Ho Chi Minh CityBangkok
Singapore
Jakarta
Representative offices - Financial Institutions
Commerzbank worldwide:
Foreign branches
Milan
ViennaParis
MadridBarcelona
LuxemburgBrussels
London
DublinAmsterdam
Istanbul
BucharestBelgrade
Budapest
Zagreb
BratislavaKošiceBrno
OstravaPlzenPrague
Hradec KrálovéWarsaw
Minsk
Kiev
Moscow
Santiago de Chile
Kuala Lumpur
Riga
Melbourne
Group companies and major foreign holdings
Tianjin
Zurich
24Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Final Remarks for allof Latam :
product excellence: Embraer in Brazil
natural ressources: Codelco in Chile
research and development: bio technology in Cuba
labor market: qualified labor force !
your gateway:
-
-
capital markets: Petrobras no. 11 worldwide worth USD 211 bn
Thomas Krieger Financial Institutions – Latin America Frankfurt / 09.08.2011
Thomas KriegerManaging DirectorFinancial InstitutionsLatin America
Tel. +49 (0)69 / 136-2 4829Mail [email protected]
Commerzbank AGFinancial InstitutionsKaiserplatzFrankfurt am Mainwww.fi.commerzbank.com
Postal Address60261 Frankfurt am MainTel. +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail [email protected]