latin america outlook with special reference to argentina and chile guillermo a. calvo research...
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Latin America OutlookLatin America Outlookwith special reference to Argentina and Chilewith special reference to Argentina and Chile
Guillermo A. CalvoGuillermo A. Calvo
Research DepartmentInter-American Development BankWashington, April 11, 2001
22
Outline of the PresentationOutline of the Presentation
The Big PictureThe Big Picture
ForecastsForecasts
Understanding Argentina in the light of ChileUnderstanding Argentina in the light of Chile
The Big Picture
Slowdown in output and investmentSlowdown in output and investment
Linked to rising interest rate spreadsLinked to rising interest rate spreads
Spreads have increased by more than Spreads have increased by more than 350 basis points since September 1997350 basis points since September 1997
Impact of US recession on capital flows:Impact of US recession on capital flows:
lower Foreign Direct Investmentlower Foreign Direct Investment
higher portfolio flowshigher portfolio flows
but impact is not seriousbut impact is not serious
55
Deceleration RecoveryRecession ?
Seasonally Adj. GDP, Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1996
.I
1996
.II
1996
.III
1996
.IV
1997
.I
1997
.II
1997
.III
1997
.IV
1998
.I
1998
.II
1998
.III
1998
.IV
1999
.I
1999
.II
1999
.III
1999
.IV
2000
.I
2000
.II
2000
.III
Gro
wth
Rat
e
LAC’s output recovery LAC’s output recovery
66
*Includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela
Deceleration RecoveryRecession
s.a. Investment, Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%19
96.I
1996
.II
1996
.III
1996
.IV
1997
.I
1997
.II
1997
.III
1997
.IV
1998
.I
1998
.II
1998
.III
1998
.IV
1999
.I
1999
.II
1999
.III
1999
.IV
2000
.I
2000
.II
2000
.III
Gro
wth
Rat
e
LAC’s investment recoveryLAC’s investment recovery
?
77
Deceleration
LA Eurobond Index Spread, Quarterly Averages
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1997
-I
1997
-II
1997
-III
1997
-IV
1998
-I
1998
-II
1998
-III
1998
-IV
1999
-I
1999
-II
1999
-III
1999
-IV
2000
-I
2000
-II
2000
-III
2000
-IV
LAC’s business cycle is closely linked to interest LAC’s business cycle is closely linked to interest rate spreadsrate spreads
RecoveryRecession ?
88
LAC Spreads have consistently ratcheted upLAC Spreads have consistently ratcheted up
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
30 Sep.97 31 Jul. 98 10-Apr-01
284
186
470
650
180366
Average includes Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay y Venezuela
99
Impact on capital flows to LAC of a 1% expansion in US growth and a 1% reduction in US interest rates
1.69
0.90
0.03
2.60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
US Growth US Interest Rates
US and LACUS and LAC
FDI
PortfolioFlows
1010
In a “typical” US recessionIn a “typical” US recession
Output falls 3.3%Output falls 3.3%
Real interest rates fall 1.4%Real interest rates fall 1.4%
1111
Net impact on emerging markets growth rate of a “typical” US recession
-0.25%-0.38%
-1.60%-1.80%
-1.60%
-1.40%
-1.20%
-1.00%
-0.80%
-0.60%
-0.40%
-0.20%
0.00%LAC Developing Countries Industrialized Asia
Thus, if the US catches a coldThus, if the US catches a cold LAC will just sneeze! LAC will just sneeze!
Market Forecast
Market Forecast 2000-2001
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Mexico
Venezuela
Colombia
Peru
Bolivia Costa Rica
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador Panama
ParaguayUruguay
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5
GDP growth, 2000
GD
P g
row
th,
20
01
Market Forecast 2001: Actual vs 3-months ago
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Mexico
Venezuela
Colombia
Peru
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 63-months ago Forecast (2001)
Act
ua
l Fo
reca
st (
20
01
)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Mexico
Brazil
Colombia
Chile
Peru
Venezuela
Argentina
Market Forecast 2001 (Forecast Range)
Understanding Argentina in
the Light of Chile
1717
Equals in Bust, Unequals in RecoveryEquals in Bust, Unequals in Recovery
Similar recessionSimilar recessionBoth countries suffered from Both countries suffered from similar similar Sudden stopSudden stop, and , and sharp growth slowdown in sharp growth slowdown in 1999.1999.
However, recovery in 2000/1 However, recovery in 2000/1 has been much faster in Chile.has been much faster in Chile.
1818
Why did Argentina Perform Worse than Chile in the Recovery? Alternative Hypothesis:
• Political Factors?
• Terms of Trade?
• External Financial Constraints?
• Exchange Rate Regime?
• Degree of Openness?
• Fiscal Performance and Level of Public Debt?
The Anatomy of the Recession/Recovery Cycle: GDP(s.a. GDP, 1998.II=100)
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
19
98
:2
19
98
:3
19
98
:4
19
99
:1
19
99
:2
19
99
:3
19
99
:4
20
00
:1
20
00
:2
20
00
:3
20
00
:4
Chile
Argentina
The Anatomy of the Recession/Recovery Cycle: the Full Picture(s.a. components of demand, 1998.II=100)
70
80
90
100
110
120
19
98
.II
19
98
.III
19
98
.IV
19
99
.I
19
99
.II
19
99
.III
19
99
.IV
20
00
.I
20
00
.II
20
00
.III
20
00
.IV
exports
rest of domestic demand
investment
Chile
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1998
:2
1998
:3
1998
:4
1999
:1
1999
:2
1999
:3
1999
:4
2000
:1
2000
:2
2000
:3
2000
:4
exports
consumption
Argentina
investment
Terms of Trade (1997-II = 100)
85
89
93
97
101
105
1997
-II
1997
-III
1997
-IV
1998
-I
1998
-II
1998
-III
1998
-IV
1999
-I
1999
-II
1999
-III
1999
-IV
2000
-I
2000
-II
Chile
Argentina
Private Capital Flows(4 quarters, millions of US dollars)
-1000.0
0.0
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.019
96.I
1996
.III
1997
.I
1997
.III
1998
.I
1998
.III
1999
.I
1999
.III
2000
.I
2000
.III
Ch
ile
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Arg
en
tina
Chile
Argentina
90
100
110
120
130
Jan
-97
Ap
r-9
7
Jul-
97
Oct
-97
Jan
-98
Ap
r-9
8
Jul-
98
Oct
-98
Jan
-99
Ap
r-9
9
Jul-
99
Oct
-99
Jan
-00
Ap
r-0
0
Jul-
00
Oct
-00
Jan
-01
Chile
Argentina
Real Exchange Rate (vis a vis the U.S. dollar, jan 97 = 100)
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
Ja
n-9
7
Ap
r-9
7
Ju
l-9
7
Oc
t-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ap
r-9
8
Ju
l-9
8
Oc
t-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ap
r-9
9
Ju
l-9
9
Oc
t-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ap
r-0
0
Ju
l-0
0
Oc
t-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Chile
Argentina
Inflation (CPI, 12 month rate)
Degree of Openness
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Exp + Imp over GDP Exp over GDP
Chile Argentina
The Track Record on Fiscal Discipline(Fiscal Surplus, % of GDP)
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Chile
Argentina
Boom Recession Post-recession
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Debt/GDP
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
Debt/Exports
Public Debt Levels at the Start of the Recession
Chile
Argentina
2828
Why did Argentina Perform Worse than Chile in the Recovery? Tentative Conclusions:
• Exchange Rate Regime and Public Sector Nominal Stickiness.
• Degree of Openness
• Fiscal Performance and Level of Public Debt
2929
Aggravating Factor for Argentina:Aggravating Factor for Argentina:MercosurMercosur
Brazil has the option of Brazil has the option of devaluing its currencydevaluing its currency
thus, FDI aimed at Mercosur is thus, FDI aimed at Mercosur is more likely to go to Brazil, more likely to go to Brazil, making it more unlikely for making it more unlikely for investment to recover in investment to recover in Argentina.Argentina.
The Cavallo Plan
Short Run• Leadership and political consensus
• Higher taxes (on checks) to promptly correct fiscal imbalances and meet IMF targets
• Expansive monetary policy (lower liquidity requirements).
• Higher tariffs and tax exemptions to reactivate selective sectors
Long Run• Deregulation
• Expenditure rationalization and tax reductions for all sectors
• Open up the economy to trade beyond Mercosur
3232
Possible Trouble Spot:Possible Trouble Spot:Loose MoneyLoose Money
Expanding domestic credit may Expanding domestic credit may result in lower international reserves,result in lower international reserves,
which increases the vulnerability of which increases the vulnerability of the financial sector,the financial sector,
results in higher interest rate results in higher interest rate spreads,spreads,
lower investment and growth.lower investment and growth.
3333
Currency BasketCurrency Basket
It may be good for trade,It may be good for trade,
but it increases financial vulnerability if the financial but it increases financial vulnerability if the financial sector continues being highly dollarized.sector continues being highly dollarized.
Moreover, it may generate excessively high dollar/peso Moreover, it may generate excessively high dollar/peso exchange rate volatility.exchange rate volatility.
Raising the issue at present may cause confusion, and Raising the issue at present may cause confusion, and suspicion that it might result in devaluation vis-a-vis the suspicion that it might result in devaluation vis-a-vis the dollar,dollar,
which may result in a greater loss of bank deposits.which may result in a greater loss of bank deposits.
3434
Argentina: Bank DepositsArgentina: Bank Deposits
Bank Deposits Total
82000
83000
84000
85000
86000
87000
88000
89000
31-J
an-0
1
03-F
eb-0
1
06-F
eb-0
1
09-F
eb-0
1
12-F
eb-0
1
15-F
eb-0
1
18-F
eb-0
1
21-F
eb-0
1
24-F
eb-0
1
27-F
eb-0
1
02-M
ar-
01
05-M
ar-
01
08-M
ar-
01
11-M
ar-
01
14-M
ar-
01
17-M
ar-
01
20-M
ar-
01
23-M
ar-
01
26-M
ar-
01
29-M
ar-
01
01-A
pr-
01
04-A
pr-
01
07-A
pr-
01
10-A
pr-
01
millions
3535
Argentina: International ReservesArgentina: International Reserves
Central Bank Reserves
23
23.5
24
24.5
25
25.5
26
26.5
27
27.5
28
31-J
an-0
1
3-F
eb-0
1
6-F
eb-0
1
9-F
eb-0
1
12-F
eb-0
1
15-F
eb-0
1
18-F
eb-0
1
21-F
eb-0
1
24-F
eb-0
1
27-F
eb-0
1
2-M
ar-
01
5-M
ar-
01
8-M
ar-
01
11-M
ar-
01
14-M
ar-
01
17-M
ar-
01
20-M
ar-
01
23-M
ar-
01
26-M
ar-
01
29-M
ar-
01
1-A
pr-
01
4-A
pr-
01
7-A
pr-
01
10-A
pr-
01
Billions
Latin America OutlookLatin America Outlookwith special reference to Argentina and Chilewith special reference to Argentina and Chile
Guillermo A. CalvoGuillermo A. Calvo
Research DepartmentInter-American Development BankWashington, April 11, 2001