latin+america venezuela+ 31+slides

8/13/2019 Latin+America VENEZUELA+ 31+Slides

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Venezuela: 1950-1980

Two party system:

Democratic Action (AD, center-left) andCOPEI (center-right)

High economic growth; political stability

Partyarchy: parties dominate political life,

civil society, Patronage: cultivating support through

jobs, goods, services, subsidies, etc..


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Governability was promoted inmany ways:

Parties were broadly representative ofsociety (labor, peasants, etc.)

Parties controlled civil societyorganizations

Parties practiced consensus-building(policies made in consultation)

Good relations with military and business(via patronage)


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1980s: decline begins

Debt crisis

1980s: 29% decline in per capitaincome. Returning the country to 1953

levels!

President Perez installs economic shockprogram: 8% GDP contraction in 1989

Caracazo: rioting in the streets ofCaracas, looting of major cities


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Why the decline?

Popular reasoning: corruption Truth:

massive overspending in the 70s = debt Decline in the price of oil = lower economic growth Lack of economic reforms; non-diversified economy

Why was this possible? Courts, bureaucracy, universities, etc.. politicized

along party lines.

Complicity b/w AD and COPEI (the establishment);civil society co-opted,

In sum: no checks and balances.


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Why>?

No reform of the political system, todeepen democracy

Citizens grew distant from the

establishment: abstention 3% in 1973;39% in 1993!

The few independent organizations

become anti-party, anti-establishment. 1992: Chavez tries a coup detat; hes

jailed


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Why the parties lost support

1. Economic decline Per capita oil revenues from $1700 in 1981 to $382 in

1992

2. Popular perceptions of the decline A rich country made poor by corruption Political parties are to blame: stole oil wealth

3. Incapacity of the AD and COPEI to adapt to

new realities Highly disciplined and hierarchical No new leadership, no new ideas or policies


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Why Chavez?

1. Why military plots to overthrow govt in 1992? Movimiento Bolivariano Revolucionario founded in

1983

Goals: to end impunity, restore prosperity, redistributewealth

Movimiento saw itself as the people in uniform

Why Chavez? Had gained publicity in 2-minute TV address after

failed coup Skillful public speaker, message that resonates

strongly with many Venezuelans


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Myth #1: Venezuela is rich

Oil only contributes $200 per person togovt revenues

68% of people under poverty line

Economic performance: one of worst inLatin America in last 20 years

Lack of human and physical capital Why is the myth is politically explosive? It

fosters populism, easy, magic solutions


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Myth # 2: corruption is THEproblem

Not the only problem and not the mostimportant

Corruption is a not a cause but a symptom

of problems: of partyarchy and flaweddemocracy, co-opted civil society

Development is about institutions and

policies: reforms are the key! Populist demagoguery wins over reform-

minded agendas


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1988 election

Carlos Andres Perez elected (AD)

Enacts a IMF-type shock therapy program:cutting govt spending, etc..

Result: Caracazomassive student protests

Chavez attempts coup detat, fails and is

jailed.

Perez impeached in 1992


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Venezuela in 1990s

Political vacuum; 60% of people underpoverty line

1998 presidential elections: AD and

COPEI 11% of vote Populist Hugo Chavez: 56% of vote

His message: down with the corrupt

oligarchy; we need to save Venezuela class-based politics; his message (though

simplistic) struck a cord!!


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Chavez

1998: Elected with a strong mandate:56% of vote

1999: calls for referendum on ConstituentAssembly

July 99: legislative elections held (Chavezwins 90% of seats)

Nov. 99: new constitution drafted

Constitution popularly ratified in Dec.


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Democratic Legitimacy

1.Popular democracy:

based on popular sovereignty

2. Liberal democracy (true democracy):

assumes majorities cannot be trusted;

institutions needed to limit govts authority

Majorities can be tyrannical!

Checks and balances provide insuranceagainst possible abuse of power


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1999 Constituent Assembly

1961 Venezuelan Constitution: standard in LatinAmerica, surely not the cause of corruption andeconomic decline.

Why did Chavez call for a Constituent Assembly(ANC)?

Not because 1961 constitution was poorly designed

1961 Constitution allowed for changes

Reason: To change the makeup of institutionscontrolled by opposition; to accumulate power in hishands

Pro-Chavez Aliance (Polo) won 122 out of 131 seats

in new ANC!!


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Political parties

COPEI becomes almost extinct

AD internally fractured from its loses

Traditional politicians leave politics or runas independents

New taxi parties appear: IRENE (IreneSaez), Sala Romer (Projecto Venezuela)

Chavezs party: Movimiento V Republica Conclusion: Venezuelas party system is

extremely weak, fails in its basic functions


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The Executive

Democracy requires an executive that 1. faithfully executes the law

2. maintains autonomy from unelected actors

3. remains accountable to legislature and judiciary

Chavez based his legitimacy from 1 and 2, butnot 3.

Expansion of the role of the army

Appointment to high govt jobs; increased budget New constitution grants military role over public order,

economic development, some police activities


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The legislature

New 1999 Constituent Assembly declareditself legally all-powerful

Not bound by 1961 Constitution or existing

institutions

Opposition: charges of a coup detat

ANC closed down Congress and dissolved

Supreme Court Members to all state institutions appointed by

an Assembly that is 95% Chavista.


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The Judiciary

New Supreme Tribunal of Justice created

Hardly independent of executive power

Example: STJ dismissals of well-documented

charges of corruption against Chavezs cronies. Justice system stacked with Chavistas

By 2000: 294 judges suspended, 47 fired, and 101new judges appointed

Previous judges corrupt, but new judges clearlypartisan


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Other measures to undermineopposition

State financing for political parties cut

Largest labor union intervened, another chavistaunion created

National Electoral Council is not independent:made up of chavistas

New law against freedom of speech

Government gives public jobs only to chavistas Govt consents to corruption by chavista

businesses


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Democracy the Chavez way

Aims for participatory democracy

Denies the opposition legitimacy: all

belong to the corrupt oligarchy

Radio Television Caracas closed

Creation of Bolivarian circles: have

evolved into paramilitary forces to harassopposition


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Undermining of the rule of law

Example 1: Boliarchy, major corruption inhis circle.

Example 2: new Caracas mayor (won byopposition)

Mayors budget massively cut

Denied entry into mayors office

Relegated to minor status

Denied legitimacy: labeled corrupt, etc.


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Venezuela a democracy?

Nowadays, it fulfills the definition of ahybrid regime: electoralauthoritarianism Institutional faade of democracy, but authoritarian

governance

Absence of a level playing field for opposition

No horizontal accountability (no independent judiciaryand legislature)

Steady concentration of power in hands of presidentthrough:

Co-optation, bribery, subtle forms of persecution


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Opposition against Chavez

Fragmented, disorganized

Main tactics against Chavez:

1. Nation-wide strike

2. Coup detat of 2002

Had the implicit support of the US

3. Recall Referendum of 2004

Chavez creates his social missions as a response

4. Boycott of 2006 parliamentary elections

All of these tactics failed!


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Economic performance underChavez

Between 1998-2003:

Economy (GDP) down 20%

Per capita income down 27%

Unemployment up from: 14 to 18% One million people moved from poverty to extreme

poverty

Why?

Political instability and economic policy erratic

FDI absent; capital flight

Property rights not ensured (=no new investment)


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Economic performance underChavez: not good

Negative econ growth

Increased poverty and inequality

Why is he still popular?

Main reason: Gives a voice to the voiceless (poor)

Strikes a cord with popular conceptions

Clientelistic policies (basic health care and educationin poor neighborhoods)

Trump issues: border disputes with Guyana, conflictwith Colombia

Increased oil prices allows for patronage


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Indefinite reelection referendum

Rejected by popular vote in Dec 2008

First electoral defeat for Chavez

Abstention high = disenchantment

Chavez raised the stakes, tried again

Increased effort to mobilize his followers

Increased clientelism

Approved by another popular vote in 2009


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Growing Domestic problems

1. Rising crime and public insecurity

2. high inflation

3. shortage of some basic goods Why? Price controls (incentives for lowersupply)

4. Massive devaluation of the currency

50% devaluation!

Official exchange rate 4.30 bolivares / $

Market: 7 bolivares / $

Consequence: more inflation!


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5. Price of oil has declined

Economic expansion was based on increasedin public spending

.this is not sustainable

After years of oil-fueled partying.thehangover has begun.

6. The non-oil sectors of the economy havevirtually disappeared.

Mono-export economy

Economy contracted by 3% in 2009


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Defections from his rulingcoalition

Vice-president resigned

Labor minister resigned

Defense minister resigned

Issues:

growing authoritarianism Presence of Cubans in security apparatus


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Chavezs Foreign Policy

Strong alliance with Cuba

Provides Cuba with oil in exchange for Cuban doctors

Strong anti-US rhetoric

Calling Bush the devil at UN Rejects free trade agreements with US

But Venezuela remains a main oil supplier to US

To buy influence: provides cheap oil to Central America,

Caribbean Strong alliances with Ecuador, Bolivia, Nicaragua: all led

be left-wing presidents


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Foreign policy

Problems with Colombia

Laptop of FARC commander Raul Reyes

Venezuelan financing of FARC

Links with the guerilla group

Laptop content verified by Interpol

Strong links with authoritarian countries

Putins Russia Iran

Belorussia

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