L i sa Garc ía Bedo l la

U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y

LATINO POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT AND THE FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA POLITICS

FRAMING

WHY I T MATTERS

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM

Obama's Winning Coalition in

November 2012:

“Women and Non-Whites”

Demography seen as destiny

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

PROJECTED CALIFORNIA ADULT POPULATION, 2010-2050

White, Non-Latino Black Mixed Race Asian Latino

Source: California State Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, Report P-3, “State and County Total Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity and Detailed Age.”

The Engagement Gap

SOURCES: Likely voters – 2014 PPIC Statewide Poll; Population – U.S. Census

NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION

MIDTERM ELECTION TURNOUT, U.S. CITIZEN POPULATION, 1978-2010

California’s New Electorate, 2030

MIDTERM ELECTION TURNOUT, U.S. CITIZEN POPULATION, 1978-2010

REFRAMING WHAT I F WE SAW NON -PART ICIPAT ION AS

RAT IONAL?

MARIACHI IS NOT ENOUGH

OUR CONSERVATIVE IS NOT YOUR CONSERVATIVE

WE ARE NOT ALL THE SAME

GENDER MATTERS

Gender matters for all groups

65%

54%

65%

56%

69%

59%

70%

59%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White, Non Latino Latino Black Asian

California Registration Rates, by Ethnorace and Gender

Male Female

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplements, November 2012

THE REVERSE-SALLY FIELD EFFECT

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

TOWARD A LAT INO-RELEVANT POL ICY PROGRAM

IMMIGRANT INTEGRATION PROGRAM

BILINGUALISM FOR ALL

FULLY RESOURCED EDUCATION, CRADLE TO COLLEGE

CULTURALLY APPROPRIATE HEALTH CARE ACCESS

LIVING WAGE/WORKER PROTECTIONS

WEALTH TAXED LIKE WAGES

CIVIC EDUCATION THAT FOSTERS EMPOWERMENT

LATINOS: CANARIES IN THE COAL MINE

• Many self-selected to be here

• Incorporated into a non-participatory culture

• U.S. electorate is made, not given

• Latino voters have gotten the message that politics is not for

“us”

• Disengagement reflects the state of our democracy

• How much lower can we go before our system becomes

illegitimate?

• Status quo hurts all Americans

THANK YOU!

LGARCIAB@BERKELEY .EDU