Launch25th May 2007, Royal Society of Edinburgh

SAGES Scottish Alliance for Geoscience, Environment & Society

Theme 2: the carbon cycleJohn Grace: University of Edinburgh

Iain Young: University of Abertay

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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Statement of Problem:

we see an unprecedented increase in greenhouse gases

and

these gases cause warming of the planet

but

we need new knowledge and understanding to find solutions

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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6.51-2

Annual increase 3 Gt

Land sink 1-3

Ocean sink about 2

6.51-2

Atmosphere: +3

Carbon Budget in the 1990’s

(Billions tonnes C y-1; Royal Society Report, 2001)

 

Fossil fuels, cement 6.4 0.4

Land use change (mainly tropical deforestation)

1.7 0.8

Increase in atmospheric

CO2

3.2 0.1

Ocean uptake1.7 0.5

Tropical biospheric sink

1.9 1.3

Temperate and boreal biospheric

sink1.3 0.9

Q1 Where are the carbon sources and sinks?

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Q2 How stable is the soil carbon?

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y = 0.1294e0.2656x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

3-yr-old CF

7 yr

12 yr

20 yr

30 yr

40 yr

new CF

Expon. (40 yr)

y = 0.3448e0.1291x

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

CF

yr 10

yr 32

yr 52

yr 82

yr 90

Expon.(yr 32)

Temperature (degrees Celsius)

So

il C

O2

flu

x (μ

mo

l m

-2 s

-1) UK

Finland

Perhaps the terrestrial sink will become a source

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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Q3 Where are the sources of methane?

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Q4 What are the lateral transports of carbon ?

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SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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Export from land to river to ocean is under-researched

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon Cycle

Q5 Can we monitor the carbon cycle?

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Roedenbeck et al 2003 Units: gC/m2/year

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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The SAGES tool-kits

CO2 exchange between land surface and atmosphere- the toolkit

Hyperspectral remote sensing of land use

Flux sensor

Eco-dimona aircraft

Tall tower, Angus

Fluxnet

physiology

Earth Observatory

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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Observe processes at small spatial and temporal scales, what are they, how do they behave?

Observe fluxes at large scales

models

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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• All terrestrial life depends on it– Soil ecosystem services

are valued in excess of £100 Trillion p.a.

• We are wasting it– >18% reduction in

organic matter in UK since 1985

– 2.2M Tonnes lost to erosion each year in UK

– Globally, at current loss rates, there is about 200 years of productive topsoil left

POST report, July 2006Env. Agency 2004 report

Soil: a vulnerable part of the C-Soil: a vulnerable part of the C-cycle: cycle: Hard-to-access, teeming with Hard-to-access, teeming with life: more individual organisms in a life: more individual organisms in a handful of fertile soil, than the total handful of fertile soil, than the total number of human beings that have number of human beings that have ever lived. ever lived.

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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There literally can be billions of individualorganisms in a relatively small area.

1g of soil = c. 20m2

In 1 g of soil we have:

c. 10,000 protozoa 7 x 10-6 m2

c. 107 bacteria 4 x 10-6 m2

c. 5 km fungi 1 x 10-4 m2

5.5 x 105.5 x 10-5-5%% of the total space is covered

Toolkit for the soil

Predicting solute and gas flow& retention to within 10%

Prediction of greenhouse gasproduction in soil

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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Where in the world?

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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Where in the world?

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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Also we’ll work in in our own back-yard•Expect land use will change

•Expect climate change impact

•Farming and forestry will change: carbon forestry?

•Nature conservation issues

•Biofuels likely to have a role

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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• NERC-CTCD (soon NCEO)

• Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Management

• International Polar Year

• FLUXNET

• Forestry Commission/Forest Research

• DEFRA

• NERC-CEH

• Scottish Crops Research Institute

• SUERC

•NERC-TROBIT

•Carboeurope-IP and IMECC

•ABACUS

•Carbonfusion

•FLUXNET

•IGBP-AIMES

Some of our Affiliations & sponsors

Current projects

SAGES Theme 2: Terrestrial Carbon CycleT

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The carbon theme is often policy-relevant