lawrence yun chief economist national association of realtors® · microsoft powerpoint - orlando...
TRANSCRIPT
Market Outlook
Week of May 18 to 23
Lawrence YunChief EconomistNational Association of REALTORS®
GDP Collapse in 2020 after a decade of growth
‐3
‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
???
GDP Details in 2020 Q1
2020 Q1 % change annualized rate
GDP ‐4.8%
Consumer Spending ‐8%
Business Spending ‐9%
Residential Investment(Home building, home sales, remodeling)
+21%
Commercial Structure Completion ‐7%
Federal and State Government Spending on Investment
Modestly Positive
Personal Income +2%
Personal Savings +152%
20.5 M jobs lost in April 2020; one in three jobs lost were in leisure/hospitality
‐3.3‐50
‐254‐262
‐362.8‐584.1‐975‐980
‐1267‐1330
‐2106.9‐2128
‐2544‐7653
UtilitiesMining and Logging EmploymentInformationFinancial ActivitiesWholesale TradeTransportation and WarehousingConstructionGovernmentOther ServicesManufacturingRetail TradeProfessional and Business ServicesEducation and HealthLeisure and Hospitality
Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Lost in April 2020 (‘000)
ce: BLS
Total Jobs in Orlando … before Pandemic
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
2000
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2000
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2001
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2001
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2020
‐ Jan
In thousands
New Cases of Unemployment Relief in Florida
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
Jan 42020
Jan 112020
Jan 182020
Jan 252020
Feb 12020
Feb 82020
Feb 152020
Feb 222020
Feb 292020
Mar 72020
Mar14
2020
Mar21
2020
Mar28
2020
Apr 42020
Apr 112020
Apr 182020
Apr 252020
May 22020
May 92020
Unemployment insurance benefits don’t fully replace wages in some states
Local Disaster Events: Katrina and 9‐11Unemployment Rates
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2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
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2020
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New Orleans
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
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NYC Metro
Federal Reserve All‐InQuantitative Easing including buying Corporate Debts
0
1
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3
4
5
6
7
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2019
‐ De
c20
20 ‐ Jun
Fed Funds Rate
30‐Year Mortgage Rate can fall Further …Because of Super‐low 10‐year Treasury Yields …But Jumbo Loans not Working
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
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2020
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InventoryLow Pre‐Pandemic … Lower During Pandemic
$0$500,000
$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$3,000,000$3,500,000$4,000,000$4,500,000
2000
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Home Sales Strong Pre‐Pandemic
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
2000 ‐Jan
2001 ‐Jan
2002 ‐Jan
2003 ‐Jan
2004 ‐Jan
2005 ‐Jan
2006 ‐Jan
2007 ‐Jan
2008 ‐Jan
2009 ‐Jan
2010 ‐Jan
2011 ‐Jan
2012 ‐Jan
2013 ‐Jan
2014 ‐Jan
2015 ‐Jan
2016 ‐Jan
2017 ‐Jan
2018 ‐Jan
2019 ‐Jan
2020 ‐Jan
60% of Buyers and 90% of Sellers believe Stable Price
Pending Contracts … March Pandemic Impact shaves 20%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2019 ‐Jan
2019 ‐Feb
2019 ‐Mar
2019 ‐Apr
2019 ‐May
2019 ‐Jun
2019 ‐Jul
2019 ‐Aug
2019 ‐Sep
2019 ‐Oct
2019 ‐Nov
2019 ‐Dec
2020 ‐Jan
2020 ‐Feb
2020 ‐Mar
Mortgage Application to Buy a Home… Worst is Over?
‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
20
30
Jan 32020
Jan 102020
Jan 172020
Jan 242020
Jan 312020
Feb 72020
Feb 142020
Feb 212020
Feb 282020
Mar 62020
Mar13
2020
Mar20
2020
Mar27
2020
Apr 32020
Apr 102020
Apr 172020
Apr 242020
May 12020
May 82020
Housing Shortage …Falling Below Normal Again during Pandemic
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 ‐Jan
2001 ‐Jan
2002 ‐Jan
2003 ‐Jan
2004 ‐Jan
2005 ‐Jan
2006 ‐Jan
2007 ‐Jan
2008 ‐Jan
2009 ‐Jan
2010 ‐Jan
2011 ‐Jan
2012 ‐Jan
2013 ‐Jan
2014 ‐Jan
2015 ‐Jan
2016 ‐Jan
2017 ‐Jan
2018 ‐Jan
2019 ‐Jan
2020 ‐Jan
In thousand units
Federal Budget Deficit … $4 trillion in 2020 … Who will buy U.S. debt?
‐4500000
‐4000000
‐3500000
‐3000000
‐2500000
‐2000000
‐1500000
‐1000000
‐500000
0
500000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
OUTLOOK 2020‐2021
2020 Quarterly Forecast
Annualized Rate Year over year change
2018 5.34 million
2019 5.34 million
2020 Q1 actual 5.48 million +5%
2020 Q2 3.2 million ‐39%
2020 Q3 4.7 million ‐13%
2020 Q4 5.1 million ‐6%
Annual Forecast
2019 2020Forecast
2021Forecast
GDP Growth 2.3% ‐4.5% +3%
Job Gains 2.2 million ‐ 4 million + 2 million
Home Prices 4.8% 0% to 2% 1% to 3%
Home Sales 0% ‐10% to ‐15% +13 to +18%
Permanent Changes after PandemicEnd of Open‐Houses ??
Virtual Office Meetings
More Remote Working
Less Traffic near City Centers
Move Further Out
Larger House
