lbh 2.8% value 1 quantitative stock selection … · tfg 3.1% value avi 3.1% quality gln 3.0%...

09 March 2017

The disclaimer is available at the end of this document, and on our website: http://www.afrifocus.co.za

QUANTITATIVE STOCK SELECTION AND TOP 40 GUIDE

Afrifocus is a level 1 contributor with a BEE procurement level of 135%, and a registered member of JSE

Note: The colour coding denotes the strength of each investment style, with blue being more dominant than red

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Ind

ice

s, b

ase

d t

o 1

Long Index JSE SWIX Short Index

Value Quality Momentum Weight Reason

BTI 6.5% Quality

FSR 5.5% Value

SLM 4.8% Value

AGL 4.7% Momentum

BIL 4.0% Momentum

VOD 3.9% Quality

MND 3.9% Value

INP 3.6% Value

SAP 3.4% Value

NTC 3.4% Value

RMH 3.3% Quality

LHC 3.2% Quality

TFG 3.1% Value

AVI 3.1% Quality

GLN 3.0% Momentum

EXX 2.9% Value

CML 2.9% Quality

LBH 2.8% Value

JSE 2.8% Quality

AFE 2.8% Value

KIO 2.7% Momentum

DTC 2.7% Value

ARI 2.7% Momentum

S32 2.7% Momentum

ASR 2.7% Momentum

ACL 2.6% Momentum

AFH 2.6% Value

CLH 2.6% Quality

AIP 2.6% Momentum

NT1 2.6% Value

Summary The stock selection model returned -1.5%, against the FTSE/JSE SWIX’s return of -1.5% for the past month. The rolling 12m alpha for the portfolio is -1.2%. The selection model’s economic sector active exposure is presented below, with the stock selection alongside.

Top picks and puts from the model are presented below.

Analyst(s) Eugene Chemaly +27 11 290 7848 [email protected]

Top5 Long shares

EXXARO RESOURCES

GLENCORE (JSE)

BRIT.AMER.TOBACCO (JSE)

KUMBA IRON ORE

ARCELORMITTAL SA.

Top5 Short shares

LONMIN (JSE)

ROYAL BAFOKENG PLATINUM

GOLD FIELDS

SIBANYE GOLD

HARMONY GOLD MNG.

http://www.afrifocus.co.za/

mailto:[email protected]

1

Figure 1 - Style performance

90%

102%

118%

Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16

Style performance relative to the JSE SWIX, past 3 years

VALUE MOMENTUM QUALITY

89%

Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16

Value relative to Momentum Indices, past 3 year

The market continues to be driven by Quality investing as investors focus on profitability and balance sheets. Over the past 3 years high ROE counters have outperformed the JSE SWIX by 18%. After a brief period of underperformance, the market once again focusses on Value over Momentum stocks. Over the past 12 months our Value index delivered an alpha stream of 8.6%, the Quality index delivered 13.6% and the Momentum index delivered -9.5%

The top 5 shares selected in each investment style is as follows

Table 1 - Top 5 style shares

The equity risk-premium for the JSE ALSI as measured by the Gordon DDM is estimated at -1.9% over the SAGB 10y. The implied return for the JSE ALSI is estimated at 7.2%. The ERP from a multi-stage DDM is measured at 3.4%, below the average of 3.1%.

VALUE STOCKS MOMENTUM STOCKS QUALITY STOCKS

INVESTEC (JSE) ARCELORMITTAL SA. CORONATION FD.MGRS.

EXXARO RESOURCES KUMBA IRON ORE BRIT.AMER.TOBACCO (JSE)

SUN INTERNATIONAL GLENCORE (JSE) VODACOM GROUP

DATATEC ASSORE CLICKS GROUP

PPC EXXARO RESOURCES CITY LODGE HOTELS

2

Contents Page

1. Quantitative Stock Selection p.3

2. JSE ALSI40 Valuation p.8 JSE ALSI Implied cost of equity and equity risk premium P/NAV vs ROE plot PE vs 2year forecast EPS growth plot Dividend Yield vs 2year dividend growth plot Forward Ratings – PE, DYld, P/NAV, 2yCAGR, PEG Forward relative ratings – StdDev’s from mean

3. Top 40 Company Summary p.15

3

1. Quantitative Stock Selection For the past month the benchmark JSE SWIX index returned -1.5%. Value Factor – For the month the factor delivered a return of -0.4%, with a rolling 12m alpha of 8.6%. The value factor consists of 2 sub-indices, namely the forward dividend yield and the consensus Buy/Sell ratio.

Share Weight DY(+1) Buy/Sell #Months Sector BetsNPN 19.1% 0.4% 0.0% 11BTI 6.0% 3.8% 0.0% 4MTN 5.6% 6.3% 0.0% 78SNH 5.0% 3.3% 0.0% 10FSR 4.6% 5.0% 0.0% 16SLM 3.8% 4.3% 0.0% 10OML 3.8% 3.2% 0.0% 16MND 3.1% 2.9% 0.0% 1WHL 3.1% 4.5% 0.0% 11BGA 3.0% 6.7% 0.0% 1INP 2.9% 4.6% 0.0% 8NTC 2.7% 3.1% 0.0% 18SAP 2.6% 2.7% 0.0% 2RMH 2.6% 5.1% 0.0% 17LHC 2.4% 4.8% 0.0% 3TFG 2.4% 4.8% 0.0% 20EXX 2.1% 4.3% 0.0% 6TON 2.1% 2.9% 0.0% 18JSE 2.1% 4.5% 0.0% 2AFE 2.0% 3.8% NaN 19DTC 2.0% 3.4% 0.0% 19SUI 2.0% 3.1% 0.0% 23PPC 2.0% 2.3% 0.0% 4GND 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 7AFH 1.9% 5.6% 0.0% 1MPT 1.9% 3.7% 0.0% 1RBX 1.9% 3.6% 0.0% 1GRF 1.8% 3.1% 0.0% 1NT1 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1PAN 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 1Total 98.2% 3.2% 0.0% 13.2

-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%

00.511.522.533.5

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Rolling 12m alphaIndices, based to 1

Value Index JSE SWIX

-15% 0% 15%BasicMaterialsConsumerServicesTelecommsConsumerGoodsHealthCareTechnologyFinancialsIndustrials

Share Weight DY(+1) Buy/Sell #Months Sector BetsNPN 19.2% 0.4% 92.3% 12BTI 5.9% 3.8% 64.7% 5

SNH 4.8% 2.9% 80.0% 11FSR 4.8% 5.0% 36.4% 17

SLM 4.1% 4.2% 60.0% 11REM 4.1% 2.3% 60.0% 1

OML 3.9% 3.1% 50.0% 17MND 3.2% 2.8% 66.7% 2

WHL 3.1% 4.4% 35.7% 12BGA 3.0% 6.8% 10.0% 2

INP 2.9% 4.7% 100.0% 9

SAP 2.7% 2.7% 75.0% 3

NTC 2.7% 3.2% 61.5% 19

MEI 2.7% 1.1% 83.3% 1

LHC 2.5% 4.8% 30.8% 4

TFG 2.5% 4.6% 61.5% 21

EXX 2.2% 4.4% 90.9% 7

TON 2.1% 2.3% 75.0% 19

LBH 2.1% 6.6% 40.0% 1

JSE 2.1% 4.3% 50.0% 3

AFE 2.1% 3.7% 100.0% 20

DTC 2.0% 3.2% 100.0% 20

PPC 2.0% 2.7% 85.7% 5

SUI 2.0% 3.4% 100.0% 24

AFH 2.0% 5.8% 50.0% 1

MPT 1.9% 3.7% 60.0% 1

PAN 1.9% 5.4% 25.0% 1

RBX 1.9% 3.4% 50.0% 1

NT1 1.9% 0.0% 100.0% 1

BAW 0.0% 3.4% -20.0% 1

Total 98.2% 3.0% 67.3% 9.2

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Ro

llin

g 1

2m

alp

haIn

dic

es,

bas

ed

to

1

Value Index JSE SWIX

-6.8%

-4.3%

-3.6%

-0.5%

1.8%

2.9%

3.0%

5.6%

Telecomms

Basic

Materials

ConsumerServices

ConsumerGoods

Technology

HealthCare

Financials

Industrials

4

Quality Factor – For the month the factor delivered a return of 1.2%, with a rolling 12month alpha of 13.6%. The quality factor consists on the forward ROE of the share.

5

Momentum Factor – For the month the factor delivered a return of -2%, with a 12m alpha of -9.5%. The momentum factor consists of price momentum and earnings revision momentum.

6

Stock selection model (Top30 shares) - For the month the long portfolio delivered a return of -1.5%, with a 12m alpha of 0.2%. The Top30 selection is arrived from a 1/3 allocation to each of the Value, Quality and Momentum investment styles

7

Stock selection model (Bottom30 shares) - The short portfolio returned -2.2%, with a 12m alpha of 13.4%.

The factors comprising the selection model The stock selection model selects a 30 stock portfolio based on 3 factors that drive the returns of shares, namely Value, Quality and Momentum. Property shares are excluded from the investment universe. The z-scores of the 3 factors are equally weighted, with transaction fees of 1% for 100% portfolio turnover included in the testing of the strategies. The portfolios are generated with active bets relative to the JSE SWIX, where the weight of individual counters are calculated as

𝑥′′ = 𝑥𝑆𝑊𝐼𝑋 +1

30[1 −∑𝑥𝑖

30

𝑖=1

]

8

2. JSE ALSI40 Valuation

JSE ALSI Implied cost of equity and equity risk premium from Gordon DDM

9

JSE ALSI Implied cost of equity and equity risk premium from multistage DDM

10

ALSI40 constituents Price/Book and RoE relationship

11

ALSI40 constituents PE and forecast growth relationship

12

ALSI40 constituents Dividend Yield and forecast growth relationship

ANH

APN

BGA

BID

BIL

BTI

BVT

CFR

DSY

FSR

GRT

INP

MEI

MND

MRP

MTN

NED

NPN

NTCOML

RDF

REM

RMH

SBK

SHP

SLM

SNH

SOL

TBS

VOD

WHL

ALSI

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Div

ide

nd

Yie

ld

2year forecast compound dividend growth

Equity Risk Premium = 2%



Offscale: BAT,NPN

13

P/E(+1)rel Mean StDev #SDs DY(+1)rel Mean StDev #SDs P/B(+1)rel Mean StDev #SDs

AGL 0.5 0.9 0.2 -1.8 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.3 -1.1

ANH 1.8 1.4 0.3 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 1.4 2.3 1.2 0.5 2.4

ANG 1.1 1.1 1.2 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.7 1.7 0.9 -1.1

APN 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 -0.5 1.4 1.9 0.5 -1.0

BAT -2.9 0.7 0.7 n/a 0.2 1.2 1.3 -0.8 0.4 0.6 0.2 -1.2

BGA 0.6 0.7 0.2 -0.5 2.0 1.6 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.1 -0.3

BID 1.6 1.2 0.1 6.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 -0.1 1.9 1.9 0.1 0.3

BIL 0.9 0.9 0.3 -0.1 1.6 1.1 0.4 1.4 0.8 1.3 0.4 -1.4

BTI 1.3 1.1 0.2 1.0 1.1 1.5 0.3 -1.3 5.3 2.5 1.3 2.2

BVT 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 -0.5 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.3

CFR 1.9 1.3 0.2 2.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.6 -0.3

DSY 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.1 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.3

FSR 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 1.5 1.1 0.2 2.0

GLN 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1

GRT 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 2.2 2.7 1.4 -0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3

IMP 2.3 1.1 0.5 2.5 0.1 1.3 1.1 -1.0 0.3 1.4 0.6 -1.8

INP 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 1.4 1.5 0.4 -0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 -0.1

ITU 1.5 1.8 0.6 -0.6 1.4 1.2 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.1 -1.7

LHC 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.5 3.5 3.6 0.6 -0.2

MEI 1.5 1.2 0.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.5 2.7 0.7 -3.3

MND 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.5 -0.5 2.4 0.7 0.6 2.9

MRP 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.4 0.4 -0.6 3.6 1.8 1.5 1.3

MTN 1.3 0.9 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.5 0.3 -2.1

NED 0.7 0.9 0.2 -0.5 1.5 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.4

NPN 2.4 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 -1.5 2.8 1.5 0.9 1.5

NTC 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.4 -0.8 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.4

OML 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.2 0.9 1.4 0.6 -0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.2

RDF 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 2.5 2.9 0.9 -0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.7

REI 0.1 0.9 0.8 -1.1 0.9 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 -2.3

REM 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.3 -1.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.8

RMH 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 2.1

SBK 0.8 0.8 0.2 -0.2 1.6 1.4 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.5

SHP 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.3 -0.7 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.7

SLM 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.4 0.4 -0.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 2.5

SNH 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.7 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 -0.5

SOL 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 1.2 1.3 0.3 -0.5 0.6 0.9 0.2 -1.6

TBS 1.3 1.0 0.2 1.8 0.9 1.3 0.2 -1.8 2.4 1.9 0.4 1.3

VOD 1.1 0.9 0.1 1.7 1.8 2.0 0.2 -0.8 4.9 3.8 0.8 1.4

WHL 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.4 -0.5 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.0

ALSI40 Valuation Statistics

14

P/E(+1) DYld(+1) P/NAV(+1) 2y CAGR PEG

AGL 6.5 4.0% 0.8 14% 0.74

ANH 23.6 3.6% 3.8 22% 1.41

ANG 14.4 1.3% 1.2 19% 0.71

APN 16.1 1.2% 2.4 19% 1.03

BAT -38.8 0.6% 0.7 n/a n/a

BGA 8.1 6.9% 1.3 6% 1.38

BID 21.3 1.9% 3.2 10% 2.25

BIL 11.3 5.4% 1.3 39% 0.62

BTI 17.3 3.8% 9.0 12% 1.64

BVT 13.5 3.3% 2.5 12% 1.21

CFR 25.3 2.6% 2.0 20% 1.44

DSY 16.1 1.6% 2.2 14% 1.31

FSR 11.4 4.9% 2.5 9% 1.43

GLN 12.1 3.2% 1.1 65% 0.51

GRT 13.4 7.5% 1.1 13% 1.23

IMP 30.2 0.4% 0.5 421% 0.72

INP 10.6 4.6% 1.2 9% 1.35

ITU 19.2 4.9% 0.5 -1% n/c

LHC 17.3 4.8% 6.0 8% 2.31

MEI 19.3 1.3% 0.9 16% 1.38

MND 14.9 2.8% 4.1 7% 2.29

MRP 17.2 3.8% 6.1 11% 1.63

MTN 17.2 5.5% 1.6 17% 1.22

NED 9.9 5.1% 1.5 9% 1.20

NPN 31.6 0.4% 4.8 36% 1.21

NTC 14.3 3.3% 3.6 30% 0.72

OML 11.4 3.2% 1.0 14% 0.98

RDF 11.9 8.4% 1.0 10% 1.34

REI 1.0 3.2% 0.4 146% 0.04

REM 13.2 2.3% 1.3 13% 1.11

RMH 11.0 5.0% 2.1 8% 1.47

SBK 10.0 5.6% 1.5 9% 1.22

SHP 18.2 2.8% 4.1 12% 1.67

SLM 12.9 4.2% 2.4 16% 1.01

SNH 13.0 3.2% 1.0 8% 1.64

SOL 9.2 3.9% 1.0 5% 1.84

TBS 17.0 2.9% 4.1 11% 1.73

VOD 14.7 6.2% 8.2 10% 1.59

WHL 14.8 4.6% 3.0 8% 1.81

ALSI40 Valuation Statistics

15

3. Top 40 Company Summary

Share ANGLO PE(+1) 6.7 Price 19203

Benchmark FTSE/JSE ALSI DY(+1) 4.0% +12m Target 23707

Recommendation HOLD PB(+1) 0.79 E(Return) 27%

FYE December ROE(+1) 12% Buy/Sell ratio 41%

CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Year EPS DPS NAV P/E EYld DYld P/NAV Level Average

2016 (A) 1871 0 21872 10.3 9.7% 0.0% 0.88 P/E(+1) 0.4 0.9

56% n/a 10% +12m EPS growth 27.7%

2017 (F) 2918 745 24045 6.6 15.2% 3.9% 0.80 DY(+1) 1.11 0.93

-15% 25% 6% PNAV(+1) 0.5 0.8

2018 (F) 2467 928 25584 7.8 12.8% 4.8% 0.75

-11% 20% 4%

2019 (F) 2200 1117 26667 8.7 11.5% 5.8% 0.72 PE 23707

DY 22739

PB 29006

E/R 20396Notes: Target price estimates of PE, DY and PB based on a regression of the ratio against

the +12m forecast growth in the parameter (EPS, DPS or BV) and the 10y SAGB. E/R is

the so-called Fed model, where forecast +12m EPS is discounted by the 10y SAGB.

+12m TARGET PRICE ESTIMATES

RELATIVE VALUATION METRICS

0.11

0.21

0.31

0.41

0.51

0.61

0.71

0.81

0.91

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Price and EPS relative

Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth

Trailing PE and forecast earnings growth

0.42

0.91

0.40

0.73

1.05

1.38

1.71

2.03

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E

Forward PE ratio (+12m, +24m, +36m)

1.11

0.93

0.07

0.55

1.03

1.51

1.99

2.46

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld

Forward DY ratio (+12m, +24m, +36m)

Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.48

0.75

0.13

0.40

0.66

0.93

1.19

1.45

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B

Forward PB ratio (+12m, +24m, +36m)

0.05

0.25

0.45

0.65

0.85

1.05

1.25

Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17

EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.13

0.47

0.81

1.15

1.49

1.83

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.24


Short-term sentiment indicator

17

Share ANB INBEV PE(+1) 23.4 Price 139600


Recommendation BUY PB(+1) 3.82 E(Return) 12%

FYE December ROE(+1) 16% Buy/Sell ratio #N/A

CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 4524 4878 35597 30.9 3.2% 3.5% 3.92 P/E(+1) 1.4 1.4

30% 4% 2% +12m EPS growth 9.1%

2017 (F) 5896 5050 36443 23.7 4.2% 3.6% 3.83 DY(+1) 1.02 0.61

13% 2% 4% PNAV(+1) 2.3 1.2

2018 (F) 6666 5157 37953 20.9 4.8% 3.7% 3.68

11% 4% 5%

2019 (F) 7382 5359 39976 18.9 5.3% 3.8% 3.49 PE 151831

DY 165515

PB 131928






1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.40 1.39

0.92

1.26

1.60

1.94

2.28

2.62

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.02

0.61

0.25

0.63

1.00

1.38

1.75

2.13

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

2.29

1.17

0.30

0.79

1.29

1.78

2.27

2.76

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.86

1.49

2.13

2.76

3.39

4.03

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.61



18

Share ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI PE(+1) 13.8 Price 13100




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 962 95 10098 13.6 7.3% 0.7% 1.30 P/E(+1) 0.8 1.1

-5% 73% 7% +12m EPS growth -20.1%

2017 (F) 912 165 10845 14.4 7.0% 1.3% 1.21 DY(+1) 0.37 0.48

51% 53% 10% PNAV(+1) 0.7 1.7

2018 (F) 1379 253 11972 9.5 10.5% 1.9% 1.09

3% 13% 10%

2019 (F) 1426 287 13111 9.2 10.9% 2.2% 1.00 PE 26577

DY 19367

PB 4755






(0.10)

0.10

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

0.2

0.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

-140% -40% 60% 160% 260%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.961.14

-0.01

0.99

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.370.48

0.09

0.68

1.26

1.84

2.43

3.01

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.72

1.72

0.40

1.24

2.08

2.92

3.76

4.60

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.15

0.80

1.45

2.10

2.76

3.41

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.92



19

Share ASPEN PE(+1) 15.9 Price 27459



FYE June ROE(+1) 15% Buy/Sell ratio 33%

CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 1263 248 9319 21.7 4.6% 0.9% 2.95 P/E(+1) 1.0 1.2

23% 23% 13% +12m EPS growth -0.1%

2017 (F) 1548 304 10562 17.7 5.6% 1.1% 2.60 DY(+1) 0.34 0.52

20% 17% 14% PNAV(+1) 1.4 1.9

2018 (F) 1855 356 12061 14.8 6.8% 1.3% 2.28

15% 5% 15%

2019 (F) 2130 375 13815 12.9 7.8% 1.4% 1.99 PE 30847

DY 26069

PB 41086






0.99

1.19

1.39

1.59

1.79

1.99

2.19

2.39

2.59

2.79

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.00

1.24

0.69

0.93

1.16

1.40

1.63

1.87

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.34

0.52

0.14

0.33

0.52

0.71

0.90

1.09

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

1.44

1.94

1.21

1.74

2.28

2.82

3.36

3.89

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.73

0.83

0.93

1.03

1.13

1.23

1.33


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.05

0.21

0.37

0.53

0.69

0.86

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.82



20

Share B-AFRICA PE(+1) 8.1 Price 15015




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 1769 1030 10991 8.5 11.8% 6.9% 1.37 P/E(+1) 0.5 0.7

4% 1% 7% +12m EPS growth -14.8%

2017 (F) 1845 1039 11797 8.1 12.3% 6.9% 1.27 DY(+1) 1.95 1.56

8% 4% 8% PNAV(+1) 0.8 0.8

2018 (F) 1991 1085 12704 7.5 13.3% 7.2% 1.18

9% 8% 8%

2019 (F) 2177 1172 13709 6.9 14.5% 7.8% 1.10 PE 16573

DY 17788

PB 17831






0.62

0.72

0.82

0.92

1.02

1.12

1.22

1.32

1.42

1.52

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

-70% -20% 30% 80%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.50

0.70

0.37

0.56

0.74

0.92

1.11

1.29

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.95

1.56

0.78

1.19

1.60

2.01

2.43

2.84

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.76 0.80

0.44

0.57

0.70

0.83

0.96

1.09

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.23

0.31

0.39

0.46

0.54

0.62

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.13



21

Share BHPBILL PE(+1) 11.3 Price 20835




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) -237 435 14942 -88.0 -1.1% 2.1% 1.39 P/E(+1) 0.7 0.9

n/a 174% 5% +12m EPS growth 70.5%

2017 (F) 1873 1191 15624 11.1 9.0% 5.7% 1.33 DY(+1) 1.52 1.06

-3% -10% 5% PNAV(+1) 0.8 1.3

2018 (F) 1811 1077 16358 11.5 8.7% 5.2% 1.27

-15% -3% 3%

2019 (F) 1544 1046 16856 13.5 7.4% 5.0% 1.24 PE 21523

DY 23629

PB 27831






(0.09)

0.11

0.31

0.51

0.71

0.91

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

4.1

-80% 20% 120% 220% 320%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.760.89

0.57

0.98

1.40

1.81

2.22

2.64

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.52

1.06

0.58

1.06

1.53

2.01

2.48

2.96

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.78

1.30

0.49

0.80

1.11

1.41

1.72

2.02

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.13

0.23

0.33

0.43

0.53

0.63

0.73

0.83

0.93

1.03


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.21

0.36

0.52

0.67

0.82

0.97

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.52



22

Share BRITISH AM TOBACCO PE(+1) 17.2 Price 80888


Recommendation STRONG BUY PB(+1) 8.94 E(Return) -4%


CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 3968 2657 7307 20.4 4.9% 3.3% 11.07 P/E(+1) 1.0 1.1

18% 15% 22% +12m EPS growth -2.8%

2017 (F) 4665 3066 8906 17.3 5.8% 3.8% 9.08 DY(+1) 1.07 1.47

7% 6% 20% PNAV(+1) 5.4 2.5

2018 (F) 5008 3257 10657 16.2 6.2% 4.0% 7.59

6% 4% 18%

2019 (F) 5333 3395 12594 15.2 6.6% 4.2% 6.42 PE 74185

DY 71881

PB 91699






0.98

1.18

1.38

1.58

1.78

1.98

2.18

2.38

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-80% -30% 20% 70%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.06 1.05

0.53

0.79

1.05

1.31

1.57

1.83

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.07

1.47

1.07

1.33

1.60

1.86

2.12

2.38

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

5.35

2.53

1.25

2.25

3.26

4.26

5.26

6.27

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.67

0.90

1.12

1.35

1.57

1.80

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.34



23

Share BIDVEST PE(+1) 13.4 Price 16130




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 1054 714 5508 15.3 6.5% 4.4% 2.93 P/E(+1) 0.8 1.0

6% -29% 11% +12m EPS growth -10.3%

2017 (F) 1121 506 6123 14.4 6.9% 3.1% 2.63 DY(+1) 0.94 1.17

13% 11% 12% PNAV(+1) 1.5 1.4

2018 (F) 1268 563 6828 12.7 7.9% 3.5% 2.36

16% 16% 12%

2019 (F) 1467 654 7641 11.0 9.1% 4.1% 2.11 PE 15904

DY 14868

PB 17197






0.47

0.67

0.87

1.07

1.27

1.47

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.78

0.96

0.59

0.77

0.96

1.15

1.33

1.52

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.94

1.17

0.22

0.59

0.96

1.34

1.71

2.08

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

1.48

1.37

0.66

0.98

1.29

1.61

1.92

2.24

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.43

0.53

0.63

0.73

0.83

0.93

1.03

1.13

1.23

1.33


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.23

0.36

0.49

0.62

0.74

0.87

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.42



24

Share COMPAGNIE RICHEMONT PE(+1) 24.9 Price 9863



FYE March ROE(+1) 8% Buy/Sell ratio 48%

CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 437 259 4850 22.6 4.4% 2.6% 2.03 P/E(+1) 1.5 1.3

-27% -6% 2% +12m EPS growth -0.9%

2017 (F) 319 243 4926 30.9 3.2% 2.5% 2.00 DY(+1) 0.74 0.55

29% 7% 3% PNAV(+1) 1.2 1.3

2018 (F) 411 261 5075 24.0 4.2% 2.7% 1.94

27% 7% 5%

2019 (F) 522 279 5318 18.9 5.3% 2.8% 1.85 PE 9793

DY 11404

PB 9811






1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.49

1.31

0.87

1.06

1.24

1.43

1.61

1.80

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.74

0.55

0.31

0.63

0.96

1.28

1.61

1.93

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

1.17 1.34

0.70

1.27

1.84

2.40

2.97

3.54

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.07

0.11

0.15

0.20

0.24

0.28

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.05



25

Share DISCOVERY PE(+1) 16.0 Price 12560


Recommendation HOLD PB(+1) 2.13 E(Return) -7%


CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 671 176 4988 18.7 5.3% 1.4% 2.52 P/E(+1) 1.0 1.0

7% 8% 11% +12m EPS growth -8.2%

2017 (F) 719 190 5517 17.5 5.7% 1.5% 2.28 DY(+1) 0.45 0.60

16% 10% 11% PNAV(+1) 1.3 1.2

2018 (F) 832 209 6139 15.1 6.6% 1.7% 2.05

16% 15% 12%

2019 (F) 965 241 6864 13.0 7.7% 1.9% 1.83 PE 11507

DY 11304

PB 13925






0.97

1.17

1.37

1.57

1.77

1.97

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.910.99

0.53

0.99

1.46

1.92

2.38

2.84

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.45

0.60

0.37

0.52

0.67

0.81

0.96

1.10

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

1.28

1.22

0.77

0.94

1.11

1.28

1.45

1.61

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35

1.45


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.07

0.11

0.15

0.19

0.24

0.28

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

1.42



26

Share FIRSTRAND PE(+1) 11.3 Price 5124




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 399 226 1778 12.8 7.8% 4.4% 2.88 P/E(+1) 0.7 0.8

9% 6% 11% +12m EPS growth -11.2%

2017 (F) 434 240 1973 11.8 8.5% 4.7% 2.60 DY(+1) 1.38 1.41

8% 8% 11% PNAV(+1) 1.5 1.1

2018 (F) 467 259 2181 11.0 9.1% 5.1% 2.35

10% 12% 10%

2019 (F) 514 290 2405 10.0 10.0% 5.7% 2.13 PE 5475

DY 5317

PB 5701






0.99

1.19

1.39

1.59

1.79

1.99

2.19

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.67

0.83

0.47

0.64

0.82

0.99

1.16

1.34

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.38 1.41

0.74

1.08

1.42

1.77

2.11

2.45

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

1.47

1.12

0.67

0.89

1.10

1.32

1.54

1.76

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.13

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.48



27

Share GFIELDS PE(+1) 15.4 Price 4005




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 392 118 5798 10.2 9.8% 3.0% 0.69 P/E(+1) 0.9 1.3

-36% -44% 3% +12m EPS growth -51.1%

2017 (F) 252 66 5984 15.9 6.3% 1.7% 0.67 DY(+1) 0.48 0.72

35% 41% 4% PNAV(+1) 0.4 0.8

2018 (F) 341 94 6231 11.8 8.5% 2.3% 0.64

12% 19% 4%

2019 (F) 381 111 6500 10.5 9.5% 2.8% 0.62 PE 4961

DY 3616

PB 3560






(0.10)

0.10

0.30

0.50

0.70

0.90

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

-110% -10% 90% 190% 290% 390%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.83

1.27

0.04

1.04

2.03

3.02

4.01

5.00

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.48

0.72

0.09

0.54

1.00

1.45

1.90

2.35

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.40

0.80

0.20

0.75

1.29

1.84

2.38

2.93

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.65

1.15

1.65

2.15

2.65

3.15

3.65


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.07

0.34

0.61

0.89

1.16

1.44

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

1.47



28

Share GLENCORE PE(+1) 12.3 Price 5142


Recommendation HOLD PB(+1) 1.07 E(Return) -25%


CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 150 42 4550 34.3 2.9% 0.8% 1.13 P/E(+1) 0.7 0.8

179% 285% 6% +12m EPS growth 123.8%

2017 (F) 419 161 4808 12.3 8.1% 3.1% 1.07 DY(+1) 0.91 0.92

0% 39% 4% PNAV(+1) 0.6 0.6

2018 (F) 420 223 5005 12.2 8.2% 4.3% 1.03

12% 23% 4%

2019 (F) 470 274 5202 10.9 9.1% 5.3% 0.99 PE 3666

DY 4380

PB 6118






(0.09)

0.11

0.31

0.51

0.71

0.91

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.1

0.6

1.1

1.6

2.1

2.6

3.1

3.6

4.1

4.6

-40% 10% 60% 110% 160% 210%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.740.81

0.48

0.80

1.13

1.45

1.77

2.09

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.91 0.92

0.06

0.46

0.87

1.28

1.68

2.09

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.64 0.61

0.23

0.46

0.69

0.92

1.16

1.39

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.15

0.25

0.35

0.45

0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.04

0.07

0.10

0.13

0.15

0.18

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.55



29

Share GROWTHPOINT PE(+1) 13.3 Price 2706




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 140 184 2476 19.3 5.2% 6.8% 1.09 P/E(+1) 0.8 0.9

39% 6% 0% +12m EPS growth -1.2%

2017 (F) 195 195 2476 13.9 7.2% 7.2% 1.09 DY(+1) 2.11 2.74

7% 7% 3% PNAV(+1) 0.7 0.6

2018 (F) 209 209 2560 12.9 7.7% 7.7% 1.06

6% 6% 3%

2019 (F) 222 222 2649 12.2 8.2% 8.2% 1.02 PE 2575

DY 2606

PB 2467






0.74

0.94

1.14

1.34

1.54

1.74

1.94

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

-0.1

0.4

0.9

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.9

3.4

3.9

-100% 0% 100% 200% 300%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.79 0.93

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


2.11

2.74

1.57

3.00

4.42

5.84

7.27

8.69

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.65

0.60

0.35

0.46

0.58

0.69

0.81

0.92

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.59



30

Share IMPALA PLATINUM PE(+1) 27.3 Price 4000




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 12 0 7878 333.3 0.3% 0.0% 0.51 P/E(+1) 1.6 1.1

18% n/a 0% +12m EPS growth 80.5%

2017 (F) 14 3 7889 281.3 0.4% 0.1% 0.51 DY(+1) 0.12 1.29

1592% 977% 3% PNAV(+1) 0.3 1.4

2018 (F) 241 29 8102 16.6 6.0% 0.7% 0.49

92% 310% 4%

2019 (F) 463 117 8448 8.6 11.6% 2.9% 0.47 PE 5264

DY 734

PB 6930






0.01

0.11

0.21

0.31

0.41

0.51

0.61

0.71

0.81

0.91

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

-0.2

0.8

1.8

2.8

3.8

4.8

-80% 20% 120% 220% 320%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.89

1.10

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.12

1.29

0.01

0.87

1.73

2.59

3.46

4.32

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.30

1.38

0.15

0.66

1.16

1.67

2.17

2.68

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


-0.11

0.09

0.29

0.49

0.69

0.89

1.09


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.05

0.25

0.46

0.66

0.87

1.07

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.05



31

Share INVESTEC LTD PE(+1) 10.5 Price 9527




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 797 435 7434 12.0 8.4% 4.6% 1.28 P/E(+1) 0.6 0.8

-1% -9% 5% +12m EPS growth -2.4%

2017 (F) 789 394 7829 12.1 8.3% 4.1% 1.22 DY(+1) 1.31 1.49

19% 15% 6% PNAV(+1) 0.7 0.7

2018 (F) 936 454 8310 10.2 9.8% 4.8% 1.15

0% 6% 6%

2019 (F) 940 482 8768 10.1 9.9% 5.1% 1.09 PE 10623

DY 10997

PB 9598






0.84

1.04

1.24

1.44

1.64

1.84

2.04

2.24

2.44

2.64

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.62

0.78

0.48

0.72

0.95

1.18

1.41

1.64

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.31

1.49

0.84

1.30

1.76

2.22

2.69

3.15

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.69 0.74

0.17

0.64

1.12

1.59

2.07

2.54

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.78

0.88

0.98

1.08

1.18

1.28

1.38

1.48

1.58


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.13

0.28

0.42

0.57

0.71

0.86

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.35



32

Share INTUPLC PE(+1) 19.2 Price 4490


Recommendation #N/A PB(+1) 0.52 E(Return) 39%

FYE December ROE(+1) 3% Buy/Sell ratio n/a

CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 239 223 8639 18.8 5.3% 5.0% 0.52 P/E(+1) 1.2 1.8

-2% -1% 0% +12m EPS growth -21.4%

2017 (F) 233 221 8652 19.2 5.2% 4.9% 0.52 DY(+1) 1.38 1.25

1% 0% 1% PNAV(+1) 0.3 0.5

2018 (F) 236 221 8755 19.0 5.3% 4.9% 0.51

0% 2% 1%

2019 (F) 235 226 8855 19.1 5.2% 5.0% 0.51 PE 6008

DY 5781

PB 7604






(2.31)

(1.81)

(1.31)

(0.81)

(0.31)

0.19

0.69

1.19

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

-60% 40% 140% 240%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.17

1.81

0.99

1.56

2.14

2.72

3.30

3.87

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.38

1.25

0.82

1.04

1.26

1.48

1.70

1.92

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.31

0.54

0.31

0.44

0.57

0.69

0.82

0.95

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.68

0.78

0.88

0.98

1.08

1.18

1.28

1.38

1.48

1.58


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.09

0.15

0.21

0.27

0.33

0.39

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

1.50



33

Share LIFEHC PE(+1) 17.1 Price 3350



FYE September ROE(+1) 35% Buy/Sell ratio 67%

CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 192 165 519 17.4 5.7% 4.9% 6.46 P/E(+1) 1.0 1.3

-3% -4% 6% +12m EPS growth -17.0%

2017 (F) 187 158 548 17.9 5.6% 4.7% 6.11 DY(+1) 1.37 1.27

13% 10% 7% PNAV(+1) 3.6 3.6

2018 (F) 212 173 587 15.8 6.3% 5.2% 5.70

15% 13% 8%

2019 (F) 244 195 637 13.7 7.3% 5.8% 5.26 PE 3800

DY 3868

PB 4329






0.98

1.08

1.18

1.28

1.38

1.48

1.58

1.68

1.78

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.05

1.25

0.84

1.05

1.25

1.46

1.66

1.87

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.37

1.27

0.96

1.17

1.37

1.57

1.78

1.98

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

3.57 3.64

2.24

2.69

3.15

3.61

4.07

4.52

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.07



34

Share MEDICLINIC PE(+1) 22.5 Price 11711




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 617 165 12677 19.0 5.3% 1.4% 0.92 P/E(+1) 1.4 1.2

-17% -22% 3% +12m EPS growth -33.6%

2017 (F) 511 128 13060 22.9 4.4% 1.1% 0.90 DY(+1) 0.31 0.40

24% 26% 4% PNAV(+1) 0.5 2.7

2018 (F) 635 161 13534 18.5 5.4% 1.4% 0.87

17% 17% 4%

2019 (F) 744 189 14089 15.7 6.4% 1.6% 0.83 PE 13104

DY 12761

PB 47280






0.83

1.03

1.23

1.43

1.63

1.83

2.03

2.23

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.42

1.15

0.79

0.95

1.11

1.27

1.43

1.60

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.31

0.40

0.31

0.36

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.54

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.54

2.72

0.54

1.15

1.77

2.39

3.01

3.62

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.53

0.73

0.93

1.13

1.33

1.53


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.23

0.29

0.34

0.40

0.46

0.52

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.36



35

Share MONDILTD PE(+1) 14.9 Price 30185



FYE December ROE(+1) 28% Buy/Sell ratio #N/A

CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 1887 811 6110 16.0 6.3% 2.7% 4.94 P/E(+1) 0.9 0.9

7% 4% 19% +12m EPS growth -12.4%

2017 (F) 2019 848 7282 14.9 6.7% 2.8% 4.15 DY(+1) 0.80 1.07

7% 12% 17% PNAV(+1) 2.4 0.7

2018 (F) 2160 951 8491 14.0 7.2% 3.1% 3.56

5% -3% 16%

2019 (F) 2278 923 9845 13.3 7.5% 3.1% 3.07 PE 29384

DY 28236

PB 28639






0.93

1.43

1.93

2.43

2.93

3.43

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.90 0.91

0.59

0.87

1.14

1.41

1.68

1.95

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.80

1.07

0.65

1.27

1.89

2.51

3.12

3.74

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

2.45

0.67

0.06

0.58

1.09

1.61

2.13

2.65

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.93

1.03

1.13

1.23

1.33

1.43

1.53

1.63

1.73

1.83


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.12

0.22

0.33

0.43

0.53

0.64

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.63



36

Share MR PRICE PE(+1) 17.0 Price 16836




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 1013 667 2195 16.6 6.0% 4.0% 7.67 P/E(+1) 1.0 1.0

-12% -11% 13% +12m EPS growth -14.0%

2017 (F) 887 595 2488 19.0 5.3% 3.5% 6.77 DY(+1) 1.09 1.38

14% 12% 14% PNAV(+1) 3.6 1.8

2018 (F) 1008 664 2832 16.7 6.0% 3.9% 5.95

16% 15% 15%

2019 (F) 1172 760 3243 14.4 7.0% 4.5% 5.19 PE 17511

DY 15190

PB 12613






0.98

1.18

1.38

1.58

1.78

1.98

2.18

2.38

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.050.98

0.49

0.79

1.09

1.39

1.69

1.99

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.09

1.38

0.53

1.01

1.49

1.97

2.45

2.92

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

3.61

1.77

0.30

1.43

2.56

3.70

4.83

5.96

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.63

0.73

0.83

0.93

1.03

1.13

1.23

1.33


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.03

0.13

0.23

0.32

0.42

0.52

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.77



37

Share MTN GROUP PE(+1) 17.1 Price 12287




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 595 705 7872 20.6 4.8% 5.7% 1.56 P/E(+1) 1.0 0.9

19% -4% 0% +12m EPS growth -0.7%

2017 (F) 710 676 7907 17.3 5.8% 5.5% 1.55 DY(+1) 1.55 0.91

14% 7% 1% PNAV(+1) 0.9 1.5

2018 (F) 809 722 7994 15.2 6.6% 5.9% 1.54

13% 5% 2%

2019 (F) 911 760 8145 13.5 7.4% 6.2% 1.51 PE 11602

DY 15245

PB 5403






0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

-60% -10% 40% 90%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.970.91

0.39

0.68

0.97

1.25

1.54

1.82

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.55

0.91

0.10

0.62

1.14

1.66

2.18

2.70

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.93

1.52

0.75

1.07

1.40

1.73

2.06

2.39

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.38

0.48

0.58

0.68

0.78

0.88

0.98

1.08


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.09

0.18

0.27

0.36

0.45

0.54

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

1.67



38

Share NEDBANK PE(+1) 9.8 Price 25284




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 2350 1200 15830 10.8 9.3% 4.7% 1.60 P/E(+1) 0.6 0.9

8% 8% 8% +12m EPS growth -10.8%

2017 (F) 2550 1297 17083 9.9 10.1% 5.1% 1.48 DY(+1) 1.45 1.39

9% 10% 8% PNAV(+1) 0.9 0.8

2018 (F) 2788 1420 18450 9.1 11.0% 5.6% 1.37

10% 9% 8%

2019 (F) 3074 1552 19973 8.2 12.2% 6.1% 1.27 PE 25641

DY 24346

PB 23646






0.71

0.91

1.11

1.31

1.51

1.71

1.91

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.60

0.86

0.37

0.66

0.95

1.24

1.52

1.81

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.45 1.39

0.27

0.76

1.25

1.73

2.22

2.71

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.88

0.78

0.48

0.72

0.96

1.21

1.45

1.69

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.73

0.83

0.93

1.03

1.13

1.23


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.30

0.70

1.10

1.50

1.90

2.30

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.84



39

Share NASPERS -N PE(+1) 31.0 Price 214500




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 4041 520 35713 53.1 1.9% 0.2% 6.01 P/E(+1) 1.9 1.6

29% 36% 13% +12m EPS growth 12.1%

2017 (F) 5206 707 40213 41.2 2.4% 0.3% 5.33 DY(+1) 0.11 0.32

39% 28% 16% PNAV(+1) 2.8 1.5

2018 (F) 7258 908 46563 29.6 3.4% 0.4% 4.61

33% 11% 19%

2019 (F) 9678 1006 55235 22.2 4.5% 0.5% 3.88 PE 222758

DY 92699

PB 273546






0.97

1.47

1.97

2.47

2.97

3.47

3.97

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.7

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

4.7

-110% -10% 90% 190% 290%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.871.64

0.50

1.40

2.30

3.20

4.10

5.00

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.11

0.32

0.09

0.23

0.38

0.52

0.66

0.81

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

2.81

1.51

0.50

1.21

1.91

2.62

3.32

4.02

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.95

1.15

1.35

1.55

1.75

1.95


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.11

1.00

1.90

2.79

3.68

4.57

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.51



40

Share NETCARE LIMITED PE(+1) 14.2 Price 3060




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 117 95 696 26.2 3.8% 3.1% 4.39 P/E(+1) 0.9 0.9

77% 3% 16% +12m EPS growth 26.8%

2017 (F) 207 98 806 14.8 6.8% 3.2% 3.80 DY(+1) 0.93 1.26

11% 13% 15% PNAV(+1) 2.2 1.6

2018 (F) 231 110 927 13.3 7.5% 3.6% 3.30

13% 6% 16%

2019 (F) 261 117 1072 11.7 8.5% 3.8% 2.85 PE 3159

DY 3146

PB 3437






0.93

1.13

1.33

1.53

1.73

1.93

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.900.94

0.27

0.52

0.77

1.02

1.27

1.52

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.93

1.26

0.63

1.12

1.61

2.10

2.58

3.07

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

2.16 1.63

0.28

2.15

4.01

5.88

7.75

9.62

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.01

0.02

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.08

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.02



41

Share OLD MUTUAL PLC PE(+1) 11.4 Price 3621


Recommendation BUY PB(+1) 1.05 E(Return) -32%


CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 258 110 3244 14.1 7.1% 3.0% 1.12 P/E(+1) 0.7 0.7

23% 5% 6% +12m EPS growth 1.8%

2017 (F) 317 115 3445 11.4 8.7% 3.2% 1.05 DY(+1) 0.90 1.38

6% 7% 6% PNAV(+1) 0.6 0.5

2018 (F) 336 123 3658 10.8 9.3% 3.4% 0.99

20% 6% 8%

2019 (F) 405 130 3934 8.9 11.2% 3.6% 0.92 PE 2350

DY 2256

PB 2967






0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

2.30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.75

0.69

0.33

0.48

0.62

0.77

0.91

1.06

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.90

1.38

0.90

1.69

2.48

3.27

4.05

4.84

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.63

0.50

0.21

0.31

0.40

0.49

0.59

0.68

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.17

0.21

0.26

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.56



42

Share REDEFINE PE(+1) 11.8 Price 1098



FYE August ROE(+1) 9% Buy/Sell ratio 67%

CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 77 86 1050 14.3 7.0% 7.8% 1.05 P/E(+1) 0.7 0.9

17% 5% 0% +12m EPS growth -7.2%

2017 (F) 90 91 1050 12.1 8.2% 8.2% 1.05 DY(+1) 2.38 2.93

6% 7% 4% PNAV(+1) 0.6 0.5

2018 (F) 96 97 1088 11.4 8.8% 8.8% 1.01

8% 8% 4%

2019 (F) 104 104 1130 10.5 9.5% 9.5% 0.97 PE 1109

DY 1107

PB 1036






0.79

0.89

0.99

1.09

1.19

1.29

1.39

1.49

1.59

1.69

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-90% -40% 10% 60% 110% 160% 210%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.71

0.88

0.44

0.62

0.79

0.96

1.13

1.31

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


2.38

2.93

1.93

2.67

3.40

4.14

4.88

5.61

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.63

0.54

0.33

0.43

0.54

0.64

0.75

0.86

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.78

0.88

0.98

1.08

1.18

1.28

1.38

1.48

1.58

1.68


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.02

0.02

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.04

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.28



43

Share REINET INV SCA PE(+1) 1.0 Price 2768




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 1356 245 4466 2.0 49.0% 8.9% 0.62 P/E(+1) 0.1 0.9

-89% -64% 1% +12m EPS growth 140.3%

2017 (F) 145 88 4522 19.1 5.2% 3.2% 0.61 DY(+1) 0.90 0.32

2288% 0% 75% PNAV(+1) 0.2 0.4

2018 (F) 3458 88 7892 0.8 124.9% 3.2% 0.35

-34% 38% 28%

2019 (F) 2292 122 10062 1.2 82.8% 4.4% 0.28 PE 19022

DY 1594

PB 4524






0.28

2.28

4.28

6.28

8.28

10.28

12.28

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-140% -90% -40% 10% 60% 110% 160%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.06

0.93

0.04

0.84

1.64

2.44

3.24

4.05

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.90

0.32

0.04

0.81

1.59

2.37

3.14

3.92

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.21

0.40

0.15

0.23

0.31

0.39

0.47

0.54

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.90

5.90

10.90

15.90

20.90


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.04

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.06

0.07

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.05



44

Share REMGRO PE(+1) 13.1 Price 22400




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 1434 460 15317 15.6 6.4% 2.1% 1.46 P/E(+1) 0.8 0.9

15% 3% 8% +12m EPS growth -11.7%

2017 (F) 1656 476 16497 13.5 7.4% 2.1% 1.36 DY(+1) 0.64 0.97

5% 12% 7% PNAV(+1) 0.8 0.7

2018 (F) 1743 532 17709 12.8 7.8% 2.4% 1.26

26% 10% 9%

2019 (F) 2197 587 19319 10.2 9.8% 2.6% 1.16 PE 24832

DY 23333

PB 24768






0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

-60% -10% 40% 90%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.73

0.87

0.50

0.65

0.80

0.95

1.09

1.24

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.64

0.97

0.51

0.98

1.46

1.94

2.42

2.89

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.78

0.68

0.50

0.63

0.77

0.91

1.05

1.18

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.88

0.98

1.08

1.18

1.28

1.38


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.32

0.42

0.51

0.61

0.70

0.80

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

1.75



45

Share RMB HOLDINGS PE(+1) 10.9 Price 6516




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 532 295 2709 12.2 8.2% 4.5% 2.41 P/E(+1) 0.7 0.8

7% 6% 10% +12m EPS growth -11.7%

2017 (F) 571 312 2969 11.4 8.8% 4.8% 2.19 DY(+1) 1.40 1.42

7% 7% 9% PNAV(+1) 1.2 0.8

2018 (F) 613 333 3249 10.6 9.4% 5.1% 2.01

10% 12% 9%

2019 (F) 673 372 3550 9.7 10.3% 5.7% 1.84 PE 6446

DY 6590

PB 7370






0.94

1.14

1.34

1.54

1.74

1.94

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.65

0.81

0.46

0.64

0.82

1.01

1.19

1.37

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.40 1.42

0.79

1.18

1.58

1.98

2.38

2.78

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

1.25

0.84

0.48

0.68

0.88

1.07

1.27

1.47

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.88

0.93

0.98

1.03

1.08

1.13

1.18

1.23

1.28

1.33

1.38


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.07

0.10

0.13

0.16

0.19

0.21

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.65



46

Share SAPPI PE(+1) 10.8 Price 8350




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 841 151 3498 9.9 10.1% 1.8% 2.39 P/E(+1) 0.7 0.9

-10% 40% 16% +12m EPS growth -25.2%

2017 (F) 761 212 4047 11.0 9.1% 2.5% 2.06 DY(+1) 0.73 0.74

4% 9% 14% PNAV(+1) 1.2 0.7

2018 (F) 792 230 4609 10.5 9.5% 2.8% 1.81

4% 24% 12%

2019 (F) 825 285 5149 10.1 9.9% 3.4% 1.62 PE 6420

DY 10685

PB 8253






(11.97)

(9.97)

(7.97)

(5.97)

(3.97)

(1.97)

0.03

2.03

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

-0.6

0.4

1.4

2.4

3.4

4.4

-140% -40% 60% 160% 260% 360%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.640.88

-0.31

0.75

1.81

2.87

3.94

5.00

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.73 0.74

0.08

0.57

1.05

1.54

2.03

2.51

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

1.18

0.67

0.22

0.47

0.72

0.97

1.22

1.47

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.88

1.38

1.88

2.38

2.88


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.06

0.32

0.59

0.86

1.12

1.39

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.35



47

Share STANBANK PE(+1) 9.9 Price 15500




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 1440 780 9317 10.8 9.3% 5.0% 1.66 P/E(+1) 0.6 0.8

8% 10% 7% +12m EPS growth -11.4%

2017 (F) 1553 861 10010 10.0 10.0% 5.6% 1.55 DY(+1) 1.57 1.36

10% 9% 8% PNAV(+1) 0.9 0.8

2018 (F) 1704 940 10774 9.1 11.0% 6.1% 1.44

11% 9% 8%

2019 (F) 1885 1024 11635 8.2 12.2% 6.6% 1.33 PE 17177

DY 17473

PB 16607






0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.57

0.78

0.38

0.54

0.71

0.88

1.04

1.21

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.57

1.36

0.84

1.14

1.45

1.75

2.05

2.35

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.92

0.84

0.55

0.70

0.86

1.01

1.16

1.32

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.78

0.88

0.98

1.08

1.18

1.28


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.22

0.28

0.34

0.40

0.46

0.52

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

1.11



48

Share SHOPRITE PE(+1) 18.1 Price 19676




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 900 452 3991 21.9 4.6% 2.3% 4.93 P/E(+1) 1.1 1.2

12% 11% 13% +12m EPS growth -6.2%

2017 (F) 1011 503 4499 19.5 5.1% 2.6% 4.37 DY(+1) 0.78 1.02

13% 16% 13% PNAV(+1) 2.4 1.8

2018 (F) 1145 582 5061 17.2 5.8% 3.0% 3.89

11% 7% 13%

2019 (F) 1266 623 5705 15.5 6.4% 3.2% 3.45 PE #N/A

DY 19179

PB 21496






0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m +24m

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

-80% -30% 20% 70% 120%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.061.17

0.67

1.34

2.01

2.68

3.35

4.02

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.78

1.02

0.47

0.71

0.96

1.20

1.45

1.70

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

2.44

1.81

0.85

1.44

2.03

2.61

3.20

3.79

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.93

1.03

1.13

1.23

1.33

1.43


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.06

0.15

0.24

0.34

0.43

0.52

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

1.78



49

Share SANLAM PE(+1) 12.8 Price 6845




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 409 268 2656 16.7 6.0% 3.9% 2.58 P/E(+1) 0.8 0.8

30% 7% 9% +12m EPS growth 7.8%

2017 (F) 531 286 2901 12.9 7.8% 4.2% 2.36 DY(+1) 1.19 1.43

5% 12% 8% PNAV(+1) 1.4 0.6

2018 (F) 557 321 3137 12.3 8.1% 4.7% 2.18

8% 10% 8%

2019 (F) 603 354 3386 11.4 8.8% 5.2% 2.02 PE 6273

DY 6711

PB 7989






0.96

1.16

1.36

1.56

1.76

1.96

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m+24m

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

-100% -50% 0% 50%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.770.81

0.38

0.54

0.70

0.86

1.02

1.17

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.19

1.43

0.90

1.19

1.49

1.78

2.08

2.37

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

1.40

0.64

0.35

0.57

0.80

1.03

1.25

1.48

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.73

0.83

0.93

1.03

1.13

1.23

1.33


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.11

0.13

0.15

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.96



50

Share STEINHOFF PE(+1) 12.9 Price 6249




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 474 213 5636 13.2 7.6% 3.4% 1.11 P/E(+1) 0.8 0.7

-3% -10% 5% +12m EPS growth -17.9%

2017 (F) 460 193 5903 13.6 7.4% 3.1% 1.06 DY(+1) 0.91 0.84

16% 17% 5% PNAV(+1) 0.6 0.7

2018 (F) 535 225 6213 11.7 8.6% 3.6% 1.01

10% 16% 5%

2019 (F) 589 260 6542 10.6 9.4% 4.2% 0.96 PE 8491

DY 7172

PB 9022






0.82

1.02

1.22

1.42

1.62

1.82

2.02

2.22

2.42

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.86

0.74

0.39

0.53

0.68

0.82

0.97

1.11

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.910.84

0.50

0.88

1.26

1.64

2.02

2.40

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.62

0.70

0.39

0.52

0.66

0.80

0.94

1.08

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.88

0.98

1.08

1.18

1.28

1.38

1.48

1.58

1.68


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.05

0.08

0.10

0.13

0.16

0.19

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.27



51

Share SASOL PE(+1) 9.1 Price 36800




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 4140 1480 32212 8.9 11.3% 4.0% 1.14 P/E(+1) 0.5 0.7

-12% -10% 7% +12m EPS growth -15.5%

2017 (F) 3629 1332 34508 10.1 9.9% 3.6% 1.07 DY(+1) 1.12 1.31

21% 17% 8% PNAV(+1) 0.6 0.9

2018 (F) 4376 1557 37327 8.4 11.9% 4.2% 0.99

-4% 1% 7%

2019 (F) 4197 1566 39958 8.8 11.4% 4.3% 0.92 PE 41680

DY 43459

PB 53443






0.59

0.69

0.79

0.89

0.99

1.09

1.19

1.29

1.39

1.49

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

-50% 0% 50% 100%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.59

0.68

0.35

0.49

0.63

0.77

0.92

1.06

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.12

1.31

0.84

1.20

1.57

1.93

2.30

2.66

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

0.61

0.92

0.49

0.68

0.86

1.04

1.22

1.40

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.39

0.62

0.85

1.08

1.31

1.53

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

-0.61



52

Share TIGERBRANDS PE(+1) 16.9 Price 40935




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 2082 1065 8555 19.7 5.1% 2.6% 4.79 P/E(+1) 1.0 1.0

13% 10% 14% +12m EPS growth -7.8%

2017 (F) 2346 1167 9733 17.5 5.7% 2.9% 4.21 DY(+1) 0.83 1.28

10% 11% 13% PNAV(+1) 2.4 1.9

2018 (F) 2578 1294 11016 15.9 6.3% 3.2% 3.72

11% 11% 13%

2019 (F) 2858 1443 12432 14.3 7.0% 3.5% 3.29 PE 34561

DY 32009

PB 39524






0.69

0.79

0.89

0.99

1.09

1.19

1.29

1.39

1.49

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


1.05

0.96

0.58

0.80

1.01

1.22

1.43

1.64

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


0.83

1.28

0.83

1.07

1.32

1.56

1.80

2.05

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

2.41

1.92

0.95

1.40

1.84

2.29

2.74

3.18

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.45

0.60

0.74

0.88

1.03

1.17

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.06



53

Share VODACOM PE(+1) 14.5 Price 14900




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 883 795 1650 16.9 5.9% 5.3% 9.03 P/E(+1) 0.9 0.9

5% 6% 5% +12m EPS growth -8.4%

2017 (F) 929 846 1733 16.0 6.2% 5.7% 8.60 DY(+1) 1.75 1.99

12% 12% 6% PNAV(+1) 4.9 3.8

2018 (F) 1043 944 1833 14.3 7.0% 6.3% 8.13

9% 9% 6%

2019 (F) 1136 1030 1939 13.1 7.6% 6.9% 7.68 PE 16627

DY 18231

PB 16256






0.86

0.96

1.06

1.16

1.26

1.36

1.46

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.88 0.88

0.64

0.77

0.89

1.02

1.14

1.27

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.75

1.99

1.52

1.72

1.92

2.11

2.31

2.51

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

4.91

3.80

2.28

2.97

3.66

4.35

5.04

5.73

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.19

0.22

0.25

0.27

0.30

0.32

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.38



54

Share WOOLIES PE(+1) 14.7 Price 6966




CONSENSUS FORECASTS


2016 (A) 456 313 2065 15.3 6.5% 4.5% 3.37 P/E(+1) 0.9 1.0

-1% -2% 7% +12m EPS growth -15.6%

2017 (F) 450 307 2209 15.5 6.5% 4.4% 3.15 DY(+1) 1.29 1.56

9% 7% 7% PNAV(+1) 1.8 1.8

2018 (F) 492 329 2372 14.2 7.1% 4.7% 2.94

16% 13% 8%

2019 (F) 570 373 2569 12.2 8.2% 5.4% 2.71 PE 6961

DY 6562

PB 6116






0.99

1.19

1.39

1.59

1.79

1.99

2.19

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Price Relative

EPS Relative

+12m

+24m

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50%

Rela

tive

P

E

Relative EPS growth


0.91

1.03

0.51

0.74

0.97

1.20

1.43

1.66

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

E


1.29

1.56

0.88

1.32

1.75

2.19

2.63

3.06

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

D

Yie

ld


Relative

EPS

Forecast

1.81 1.81

0.53

1.42

2.31

3.19

4.08

4.97

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

B


0.88

0.98

1.08

1.18

1.28

1.38


EP

S(+

1)

rela

tive

re

visio

ns

EPS(+12m) revisions

EPS Revisions

Price relative

0.03

0.07

0.10

0.13

0.17

0.20

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Rela

tive

P

rice

Price

0.22



55

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